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Old
08-26-2011, 12:04 AM
  #1
ChibiPooky
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I'm confused.

I'll preface this thread by letting you know that I'm a Caps fan.

I feel like the current trend (on HFBoards) is to predict that the Lightning will be worse than last year. Why!?!

This makes no sense to me. The Lightning IMHO are one of the most solid teams in the East if Roloson holds up. Even if he doesn't they're a playoff team. Where are people getting the idea that the Lightning are going to regress?

Not kissing ass, just really curious if you all have more insight than I do into the situation. Obviously the Caps will beat you 9-0 this season






*HACKCOUGHHACK* wtfkarma

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08-26-2011, 01:13 AM
  #2
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Well common sense on HF is that while Garon should obviously be an upgrade over M. Smith in net the departures of Gagne, Bergenheim, Lundin and R. Jones were not properly compensated by signing Shannon, Pyatt, (Ouellet, Picard, T. Smith) Gilroy and Gervais. Roloson is considered a risk due to his age but he was old last season already and took us to game 7 of the ECF. With Garon we have a solid backup and a former teammate of Rolo so I'm not worried about our goaltending.

I'm also not worried about the regular season. Other teams in the East have become better, yes, but most of last season's roster will return, all our core players are still there, Boucher's system is up and running, etc. We have a lot of young players who will fight for a roster spot in training camp (Tyrell, B. Jones, Pyatt, Wright, Ashton...) and obviously a couple of guys are expected to improve their game even further (Tyrell, B. Jones, Shannon, Purcell, Stamkos, Hedman, Gilroy...).

Come playoffs it looks a little bit different. While Gagne was MIA half of the regular season he was clutch in the playoffs, he's great defensively and just a very smart player. I understand why he was let go (mainly because of injuries) tho. Bergenheim scored some big goals in the playoffs too but that doesn't mean we can't go as deep as last season without him. The good thing about Boucher's system is that it's not as much about the individuals. Swarm mentality *****es. Barring injuries we should be just fine. The most comforting thing is that we seem to have a long-term plan and finally some great talents in the pipeline. Thank god for Vinik, Yzerman and Boucher. And Lawton of course.

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08-26-2011, 08:28 AM
  #3
Felonious Python
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There's plenty examples of one season wonders in this sport, and it'd be foolish to start saying that a team that has just come out of nowhere (in many people's minds) is definitively going to stay among the best.

I do think the Lightning can win the cup this year.

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08-26-2011, 09:17 AM
  #4
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Deep in the playoff run Roli showed signs of fatigue, then would back it up with a solid performance. People seem to be betting on Roli not being able to rebound from a tough night due to age(he'll barely be 5 months older ) and then thinking Garon won't be a decent back-up and that the rest of the team will stay static from last year. You know, typical "your team is nicer than mine so I'll hate it" stuff.

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08-26-2011, 09:30 AM
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The biggest pluses IMO are having Brewer/Rollie for the entire year and Hedman being a year older and progressing on his curve towards being an elite D man (not there yet but he is only 20)

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08-26-2011, 10:23 AM
  #6
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my perspective is that it has very little to do with the lightning and more to do with the capitals. tampa bay succeded in forcing the issue with the capitals last season in the regular season. i expect that will continue this season. that said, washington had two rookie centers, a shut down defense pair of 2 rookie defensemen, and 3 rookie goalies. that and every one of their top 5 offensive players had off seasons to significantly off seasons.

i think there are few that would predict that ovechkin, backstrom, semin and green are all going to continue to regress while the rookies all regress in their second seasons.

as many have pointed out, the regular season and the playoffs are two different things. the capitals have finished in the east 2nd, 1st and 1st in the past three seasons and the consensus is that they are a better team this season. to lose to them in the regular season is no shock for anyone. its in the playoffs where the real questions are anyway. there the lightning already have an advantage.

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Old
08-26-2011, 01:20 PM
  #7
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question about the lightning in the OP? well...heh, let me just tell you about the washington capitals,

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Old
08-27-2011, 01:03 PM
  #8
The Fear Boners
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I've been hearing the Capitals are better every year, TX, yet the results are the same.

I don't get this whole "Gagne is clutch" thing. Hes anything but. If it weren't for two games where he showed up, he would have had 7 points in 15 games and looked many nights like a boat anchor slowing his line down. Perhaps in another time (or another team, yes) he could have been called that, but at this point no.

Why people seem to think we'll be much worse is because they highly overvalue Bergenheim.

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08-27-2011, 02:28 PM
  #9
Felonious Python
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Genius Brian Lawton View Post
I've been hearing the Capitals are better every year, TX, yet the results are the same.

I don't get this whole "Gagne is clutch" thing. Hes anything but. If it weren't for two games where he showed up, he would have had 7 points in 15 games and looked many nights like a boat anchor slowing his line down. Perhaps in another time (or another team, yes) he could have been called that, but at this point no.

Why people seem to think we'll be much worse is because they highly overvalue Bergenheim.
People think Gagne is clutch for the same reason they overvalue Bergenheim. It's something they did in a relatively recent playoff run, so that's what they are.

Look at how Conn Smythe winners are perceived. Gods among men.

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08-27-2011, 02:53 PM
  #10
TheDaysOf 04
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Genius Brian Lawton View Post
I've been hearing the Capitals are better every year, TX, yet the results are the same.

I don't get this whole "Gagne is clutch" thing. Hes anything but. If it weren't for two games where he showed up, he would have had 7 points in 15 games and looked many nights like a boat anchor slowing his line down. Perhaps in another time (or another team, yes) he could have been called that, but at this point no.

Why people seem to think we'll be much worse is because they highly overvalue Bergenheim.
Gagne is clutch. Maybe he wasn't so much this year, but he has the history to prove it.

I don't believe losing him and Bergenheim will hurt us as much as people think. Gagne was injured or feeling the effects of an injury for some time last season and didn't really start hitting the score sheet until the second half of the season. Bergenheim is just a 3rd liner even though he's not being paid like one now. I know people think that his playoff explosion was some kind of coming out party, but it's not. In the regular season with all the offense our team created and the high level guys he played with at times like Vinny and Gagne he still put up numbers similar to what he did the 3 seasons prior in NY. I think he'll stay consistent with that and nobody should expect any kind of increase from him this season.

We have the power to still make the playoffs without the two of them. We'll probably only miss these guys when the playoffs come, but that's such a long time from now anyway. We won't know what we have until then.

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Old
08-27-2011, 06:45 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd View Post
my perspective is that it has very little to do with the lightning and more to do with the capitals. tampa bay succeded in forcing the issue with the capitals last season in the regular season. i expect that will continue this season. that said, washington had two rookie centers, a shut down defense pair of 2 rookie defensemen, and 3 rookie goalies. that and every one of their top 5 offensive players had off seasons to significantly off seasons.

i think there are few that would predict that ovechkin, backstrom, semin and green are all going to continue to regress while the rookies all regress in their second seasons.

as many have pointed out, the regular season and the playoffs are two different things. the capitals have finished in the east 2nd, 1st and 1st in the past three seasons and the consensus is that they are a better team this season. to lose to them in the regular season is no shock for anyone. its in the playoffs where the real questions are anyway. there the lightning already have an advantage.
I think you clicked on the wrong board.

As for me, this is first season in which going INTO the season where I feel confident about our goaltending and there's hardly any question marks going in. We know what Roli is all about now and Garon is a solid backup who can play a string of games if needed and doesn't look out of place when doing so. Think the goalies will be split up about 50-30 or 45-35 or along those lines with Roli getting the majority. The defense is pretty much the same minus Lundin and the offense is still as potent as last year. People have to remember the playoffs were pretty much the first time all year where we had all of our forwards healthy and in the lineup at the same time. If the injury bug stays away from us this year, I'd actually expect to see improvement.

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Old
08-28-2011, 10:22 AM
  #12
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Roloson and Brewer to start the season. Another year of experience for Hedman. Another year of experience for Stamkos. A rejuvenated Lecavalier. A year of team experience in an effective system.

We have replacements for Bergenheim and Gagne, what am I missing that is going to make us a worse team? Outside of a construction accident that takes out half our team we should be even better.

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08-28-2011, 10:30 AM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rschmitz View Post
Roloson and Brewer to start the season. Another year of experience for Hedman. Another year of experience for Stamkos. A rejuvenated Lecavalier. A year of team experience in an effective system.

We have replacements for Bergenheim and Gagne, what am I missing that is going to make us a worse team? Outside of a construction accident that takes out half our team we should be even better.
And that'll never happen with Boucher's attention to structure.

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08-28-2011, 12:25 PM
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The Fear Boners
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You have to think, too... pre-Roloson we were 23-16 (.589) with two goaltenders that were sub-.890, if Roloson continues to his career averages (~.910) along with Garon (~.904) you'd have to think that we would be looking at another 5 wins at that same point in the year and challenging for the top spot in the southeast. Add in a full year of Brewer, Hedmans growth and it certainly looks possible.

Quote:
Gagne is clutch. Maybe he wasn't so much this year, but he has the history to prove it.
Where? Outside of what, two playoff goals? He won't be missed, hes mostly invisible on many nights, and this clutch thing is silly. He was actually (for the first time in his career) a defensive liability on many nights. He didn't fit in that well here outside of still having a great shot.

I think the wildcards this year are Gervais and Gilroy. Gilroy adds more mobility to the blueline with MAB and can actually help our transition game that looked crippled on many nights because of Ohlund and Kubinas lack of speed. While I would have liked to find someone similar to Smith that has the ability to play the puck well i'm happy that Gervais and Gilroy are actually mobile with a decent first pass.

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08-29-2011, 11:58 AM
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Who would've picked the Lightning to make it to within one win from reaching the Stanley Cup Final before the season began last season? Predictions are usually worthless, folks. Having said that, I predict, and I dont think this is a stretch by any means, that our Bolts will indeed make the playoffs this season.

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08-29-2011, 12:32 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rschmitz View Post
Roloson and Brewer to start the season. Another year of experience for Hedman. Another year of experience for Stamkos. A rejuvenated Lecavalier. A year of team experience in an effective system.

We have replacements for Bergenheim and Gagne, what am I missing that is going to make us a worse team? Outside of a construction accident that takes out half our team we should be even better.
I think you're missing quite a few potential variables that could make us a worse team, such as: Other teams figuring out the flaws in the 1-3-1, St. Louis finally showing signs of aging, Stamkos continuing to slump as he did in last year's second half, injuries to key players, other teams in the East that made improvements, etc.

There are plenty of arguments that could be made to explain why the Lightning won't be as good as last season, just as there are plenty to explain why they will be as good or better.

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08-29-2011, 03:45 PM
  #17
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Originally Posted by Mile High View Post
I think you're missing quite a few potential variables that could make us a worse team, such as: Other teams figuring out the flaws in the 1-3-1, St. Louis finally showing signs of aging, Stamkos continuing to slump as he did in last year's second half, injuries to key players, other teams in the East that made improvements, etc.

There are plenty of arguments that could be made to explain why the Lightning won't be as good as last season, just as there are plenty to explain why they will be as good or better.
Most of those items you listed apply to every single team in the league and could kill expectations for anybody. It's the worst case scenario disaster drill. All teams have players that are a year older, could be injured or have opposing teams that also made improvements. That is never ending and could go on forever.

Based on what we know right now at this moment, there is no reason to figure the Lightning to have any kind of real decline. Possibly Stamkos will revert back into Slumpkos, that would hurt, but for now all we know is that he's healthy, been training hard, won't be distracted by contract issues and is ready to go.

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08-29-2011, 04:20 PM
  #18
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Originally Posted by albatross View Post
Most of those items you listed apply to every single team in the league and could kill expectations for anybody. It's the worst case scenario disaster drill. All teams have players that are a year older, could be injured or have opposing teams that also made improvements. That is never ending and could go on forever.
The circle of life.

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08-29-2011, 04:37 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by albatross View Post
Most of those items you listed apply to every single team in the league and could kill expectations for anybody. It's the worst case scenario disaster drill. All teams have players that are a year older, could be injured or have opposing teams that also made improvements. That is never ending and could go on forever.

Based on what we know right now at this moment, there is no reason to figure the Lightning to have any kind of real decline. Possibly Stamkos will revert back into Slumpkos, that would hurt, but for now all we know is that he's healthy, been training hard, won't be distracted by contract issues and is ready to go.
The op said he couldn't see any way our team could do worse than last year, I was simply pointing out ways that our performance could be adversely affected. I'm not as optimistic as most of you and feel we were very fortunate to make it as far as we did. I could easily be wrong, but I feel like we will be eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs this year, as we should have been last year. Comparing our team on paper to others in the East, and I'm definitely not confident of us being a cup contender; of course that doesn't take into consideration intangibles such as chemistry, coaching, luck etc.

Players in the last year of their respective contracts generally perform better. Although this may not be true for Stamkos, many players perform poorly in the first year of their new contracts.

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08-29-2011, 04:54 PM
  #20
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The op said he couldn't see any way our team could do worse than last year, I was simply pointing out ways that our performance could be adversely affected. I'm not as optimistic as most of you and feel we were very fortunate to make it as far as we did. I could easily be wrong, but I feel like we will be eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs this year, as we should have been last year. Comparing our team on paper to others in the East, and I'm definitely not confident of us being a cup contender; of course that doesn't take into consideration intangibles such as chemistry, coaching, luck etc.

Players in the last year of their respective contracts generally perform better. Although this may not be true for Stamkos, many players perform poorly in the first year of their new contracts.

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08-29-2011, 06:36 PM
  #21
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Although this may not be true for Stamkos, many players perform poorly in the first year of their new contracts.
Guy Boucher will make sure this doesn't happen.

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