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JVR Signs Contract Extension

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Old
08-30-2011, 02:31 PM
  #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
What would you consider "evidence" for a player to be ready to break out?

Given that he hit 40 points, 20 goals and turned his game way up in the playoffs while averaging 14 minutes of ice time during the season, that's the most amount of "evidence" you're going to get. It's never going to be a sure thing, but you can play the odds and assume that in 3 years, he will be a steal for that price.

I mean what evidence of Giroux breaking out did we have?
Progress? A good playoff game does not mean progress. There are MANYYY players that do well in playoffs but not during the regular season. I'll ask you a question. How do you know he is going to be worth that much?

And considering Giroux just signed a contract for 3 years at 3.75 when he put up 47 points (higher than JVR) and than 76 points, leading the Flyers....Giroux also had 2 BEAST playoffs behind him (if we are counting playoffs)

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08-30-2011, 02:32 PM
  #102
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Is it not obvious that Holmgren and the Flyers view Giroux and JVR as the next cornerstones? Holmgren said as much when he traded Carter and Richards and said those two will now have to accept the mantle of responsibility. So just like they did with Carter and Richards ..they decided to get them tied up so they can focus on other moves come next year and possibly this year. It's hard to manage a cap when you have uncertainty...might as well make your decision now on who you are going with moving forward as your young core and get them under contract at fairly reasonable cap hits while they are still young with lots of upside. Sure it's a risk to bank on Giroux and JVR so much...with Carter and Richards it seemed less so but then ultimately before they were commited much more due to the clauses they decided to change course. They may have taken a step back but they look to have extended their window and they've decided Giroux and JVR will be instrumental in going forward. I mean what other two young players that have familiarity with the organization and the system are you going to go with? Schenn..Simmonds.. Voracek? No they got shorter term deals b/c they have more to prove. Not saying JVR still doesn't have a lot to prove or even Giroux but again they are the logical choices to commit to as much as possible...

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08-30-2011, 02:33 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
I don't know why you are getting so defensive, he's got a very valid point. What happens when he only wants to sign a long term contract and doesn't drop his demands. Part of the reason for signing at 4.25 is the fact that he's signed for 6 years. So we essentially have him under contract for another 7 years and a current market cap hit. The potential that he has(should he achieve it) will ensure that contract becomes a great deal.
His cap hit is the current market cap hit for a player he has not shown himself to be yet.

You are continuing to push it as if 6 years is a requirement for this deal... it isn't.

The final point is that the CBA expires after this year, and given the fact that the current cap formula is killing the weaker markets, it isn't outside the realm of possibility that a real adjustment to the cap formula may take place -- not necessarily the most likely outcome of negotiations, but certainly possible.

We had multiple teams struggling just to get to the cap floor this summer... let alone field actually competitive teams.

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08-30-2011, 02:33 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
What would you consider "evidence" for a player to be ready to break out?

Given that he hit 40 points, 20 goals and turned his game way up in the playoffs while averaging 14 minutes of ice time during the season, that's the most amount of "evidence" you're going to get. It's never going to be a sure thing, but you can play the odds and assume that in 3 years, he will be a steal for that price.

I mean what evidence of Giroux breaking out did we have?
I would have preferred to give him this contract in the middle of the season when he had shown he could carry his success over into the next year. Signing him now is riskier, but its not exactly crazy to think he'll be worth his $4.25m cap hit soon.

This is pretty far down on the dumb list, considering the other things Holmgren has done.

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08-30-2011, 02:35 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I would have preferred to give him this contract in the middle of the season when he had shown he could carry his success over into the next year. Signing him now is riskier, but its not exactly crazy to think he'll be worth his $4.25m cap hit soon.

This is pretty far down on the dumb list, considering the other things Holmgren has done.
and who says he takes that deal. If he tears **** up and scores 25 goals in the first 40 games then he doesn't even come close to signing that contract. So many people here think that you can do that lol.

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08-30-2011, 02:36 PM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoom View Post
Is it not obvious that Holmgren and the Flyers view Giroux and JVR as the next cornerstones? Holmgren said as much when he traded Carter and Richards and said those two will now have to accept the mantle of responsibility. So just like they did with Carter and Richards ..they decided to get them tied up so they can focus on other moves come next year and possibly this year. It's hard to manage a cap when you have uncertainty...might as well make your decision now on who you are going with moving forward as your young core and get them under contract at fairly reasonable cap hits while they are still young with lots of upside. Sure it's a risk to bank on Giroux and JVR so much...with Carter and Richards it seemed less so but then ultimately before they were commited much more due to the clauses they decided to change course. They may have taken a step back but they look to have extended their window and they've decided Giroux and JVR will be instrumental in going forward. I mean what other two young players that have familiarity with the organization and the system are you going to go with? Schenn..Simmonds.. Voracek? No they got shorter term deals b/c they have more to prove. Not saying JVR still doesn't have a lot to prove or even Giroux but again they are the logical choices to commit to as much as possible...
At this exact point in time, JVR is alot higher risk than Giroux. Giroux has shown that he can put up points. Now he needs to do it while being, pretty much, the guy. JVR had a pretty rough season last year, but stepped it up during a few playoff games. He than goes and gets a bigger contract than Giroux. He will have ALOT to live up to this up and coming season. Him getting scratched for not performing up to what is expected wont be accepted, and that is sadly the fact.

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08-30-2011, 02:37 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I would have preferred to give him this contract in the middle of the season when he had shown he could carry his success over into the next year. Signing him now is riskier, but its not exactly crazy to think he'll be worth his $4.25m cap hit soon.

This is pretty far down on the dumb list, considering the other things Holmgren has done.
Even if he doesnt carry his success, what would you expect him to sign for on a 6 year deal in the middle of the season?

$4.25 is a reasonable number no matter when the contract is signed. It's either 4.25 on a long term deal or around 3.5 on a short term deal.

And by the time the contract even kicks in, you can be pretty sure he'll be worth around 4.25m.

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08-30-2011, 02:38 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
and who says he takes that deal. If he tears **** up and scores 25 goals in the first 40 games then he doesn't even come close to signing that contract. So many people here think that you can do that lol.
And what if he scores 1 goal in the first 40 games? You can than justify his next season's 4.25 mil contract?

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08-30-2011, 02:39 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
Progress? A good playoff game does not mean progress. There are MANYYY players that do well in playoffs but not during the regular season. I'll ask you a question. How do you know he is going to be worth that much?

And considering Giroux just signed a contract for 3 years at 3.75 when he put up 47 points (higher than JVR) and than 76 points, leading the Flyers....Giroux also had 2 BEAST playoffs behind him (if we are counting playoffs)
JVR hasnt made progress? He put up 21 goals with an average of 14 minutes of ice time.

You never have evidence for a player to break out. This is as close as you'll get.

And it was more than one playoff game. Do you really believe that?


Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
And what if he scores 1 goal in the first 40 games? You can than justify his next season's 4.25 mil contract?

Who's to say Giroux wont regress? Your argument is flimsy.

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08-30-2011, 02:41 PM
  #110
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Giroux could regress and still be in his proper price range.

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08-30-2011, 02:42 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
And what if he scores 1 goal in the first 40 games? You can than justify his next season's 4.25 mil contract?
somehow, i'll take this risk.

(it'll be tough though)

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08-30-2011, 02:44 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
And what if he scores 1 goal in the first 40 games? You can than justify his next season's 4.25 mil contract?
He's already proven the ability to score 20 goals in a season while still learning. It would be a major collapse for him to post the same numbers as last year.

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08-30-2011, 02:46 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
JVR hasnt made progress? He put up 21 goals with an average of 14 minutes of ice time.

You never have evidence for a player to break out. This is as close as you'll get.

And it was more than one playoff game. Do you really believe that?





Who's to say Giroux wont regress? Your argument is flimsy.
Not really... its the people who believe its the right decision to pay for potential that might not even happen that's argument is rather shaky. Please, give me more evidence more than 21 goals, that will turn him into a beast player. I can give you a long list of people who hit 20 goals but didnt break out the season after.

But who would you say is riskier Giroux or JVR? Giroux has progressed over his past 3 seasons. Unless you think JVR getting scratched last year and looking ****** for 3/4 of the season as progressing after his rookie season, than JVR has not shown, other than a playoff series that he is progressing. Just read the twitter comments. Everyone pretty much agrees, that Homer is paying for what he HOPES JVR will become.

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08-30-2011, 02:46 PM
  #114
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somehow, i'll take this risk.

(it'll be tough though)
Yeah especially if he scores 25-30 in the next 42 and beyond when it matters most

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08-30-2011, 02:47 PM
  #115
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18 mins a night, Roo as your full time linemate, and regular PP time makes me think it is a safe bet that JVR will continue to get a lot better.

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08-30-2011, 02:48 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Giroux could regress and still be in his proper price range.
Exactly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
He's already proven the ability to score 20 goals in a season while still learning. It would be a major collapse for him to post the same numbers as last year.
Hitting 20 goals once doesnt mean he will do it again. That being said,I agree on the amount of points he hits. He hits around the same as last season, it is a major disappointment, no matter how much anyone wants to push around the crazy argument about how power forwards take a LONG time to grow. (edit: meant to justify crazy as in, HOW long it takes.)

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08-30-2011, 02:49 PM
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I'm pretty psyched about the deal. To lock a guy up who is believed to be a cornerstone of the team for the next 7 years at a reasonable deal.

BOO-YA!!!


And heck, if he does pan out to be the next Joffrey Lupul (not that I believe he will AT ALL), trade him to Florida or the NYI in a couple years for a draft pick.

Solid move Homer.

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08-30-2011, 02:49 PM
  #118
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Did I say that to you specifically? Or is "everyone" a generic statement? Cuz there's no doubt Hartnell's contract has been a travesty for many for years.
Um, you quoted me. You were trying to make it appear as if that is what I had said, or at the very least you were just ignoring everything I said and going off on a tangent.

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The final point is that the CBA expires after this year, and given the fact that the current cap formula is killing the weaker markets, it isn't outside the realm of possibility that a real adjustment to the cap formula may take place -- not necessarily the most likely outcome of negotiations, but certainly possible.

We had multiple teams struggling just to get to the cap floor this summer... let alone field actually competitive teams.
I distinctly remember you pointing out several times that the cap should increase by a decent margin due to the TV revenue. So...yeah. Unless they reduce the cap (really unlikely), his cap hit will remain at least a fair deal if he develops into a 50+ point forward.

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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
and who says he takes that deal. If he tears **** up and scores 25 goals in the first 40 games then he doesn't even come close to signing that contract. So many people here think that you can do that lol.
I was actually going to say that. The risk in waiting is that you there's no guarantee you get him to this number. He could wind up having a great start to the year and then you're adding another 750k a year to the deal, and making it shorter.

Its clear the Flyers got him at the price they wanted, when they wanted. Its a riskier move then I would have liked, but its not idiotic by any means.

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08-30-2011, 02:51 PM
  #119
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Not really... its the people who believe its the right decision to pay for potential that might not even happen that's argument is rather shaky. Please, give me more evidence more than 21 goals, that will turn him into a beast player. I can give you a long list of people who hit 20 goals but didnt break out the season after.

But who would you say is riskier Giroux or JVR? Giroux has progressed over his past 3 seasons. Unless you think JVR getting scratched last year and looking ****** for 3/4 of the season as progressing after his rookie season, than JVR has not shown, other than a playoff series that he is progressing. Just read the twitter comments. Everyone pretty much agrees, that Homer is paying for what he HOPES JVR will become.
4.25 is a reasonable price for a 20 goal scorer. That's assuming he doesnt even develop at all going forward. Especially with the cap going up, that's not a bad price.

Then consider that he will progress at some point during those six years (likely before the contract even kicks in), and I dont see how anyone can be displeased with the deal.

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08-30-2011, 02:53 PM
  #120
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Let's also consider that this contract could also majorly screw with the contract negotiations of Marchand in Boston

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08-30-2011, 02:55 PM
  #121
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At this exact point in time, JVR is alot higher risk than Giroux. Giroux has shown that he can put up points. Now he needs to do it while being, pretty much, the guy. JVR had a pretty rough season last year, but stepped it up during a few playoff games. He than goes and gets a bigger contract than Giroux. He will have ALOT to live up to this up and coming season. Him getting scratched for not performing up to what is expected wont be accepted, and that is sadly the fact.
I'm not disagreeing with the risk..but I don't know any business without risk. They have models that assess risk...as well as policies (Risk management). JVR and Giroux are the logical choices to place your bets....one obviously has a more weighted avg to success than the other. Not many choices given their age and "potential" ceilings. Again think of them as blue chip stocks..you have to take into account P/E ratios etc when deciding to invest in a stock..this is no different unless you want to run the risk of even more overpayment for aged veterans who have already reached their peak in most cases but still command a higher salary and cap hit. Managing a cap that way is not ideal.

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08-30-2011, 02:58 PM
  #122
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I would have preferred to give him this contract in the middle of the season when he had shown he could carry his success over into the next year. Signing him now is riskier, but its not exactly crazy to think he'll be worth his $4.25m cap hit soon.

This is pretty far down on the dumb list, considering the other things Holmgren has done.
pretty sure its not on the dumb list.

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08-30-2011, 03:00 PM
  #123
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4.25 is a reasonable price for a 20 goal scorer. That's assuming he doesnt even develop at all going forward. Especially with the cap going up, that's not a bad price.

Then consider that he will progress at some point during those six years (likely before the contract even kicks in), and I dont see how anyone can be displeased with the deal.
4.25 for JUST a 20 goal scorer isnt. With that much money, he needs to be better defensively, along with being a more consistent goal scorer.

The thing is, we HOPE he progresses in the right direction. He could be the next E.Staal type of player, or be J. Lupul. Lupul can score goals and such, but I think 90% of us agree that he is not a 4 mill + player.

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08-30-2011, 03:03 PM
  #124
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I'm not disagreeing with the risk..but I don't know any business without risk. They have models that assess risk...as well as policies (Risk management). JVR and Giroux are the logical choices to place your bets....one obviously has a more weighted avg to success than the other. Not many choices given their age and "potential" ceilings. Again think of them as blue chip stocks..you have to take into account P/E ratios etc when deciding to invest in a stock..this is no different unless you want to run the risk of even more overpayment for aged veterans who have already reached their peak in most cases but still command a higher salary and cap hit. Managing a cap that way is not ideal.
The thing is, you try to maximize the profit, while minimizing the risk. So if there were ways to lower the risk (an example would be to sign him to a contract after his first 10-20 games), I would have rather done that. I bet if he hit like 10 goals in his first 20-30 or so games, he would have signed a similar deal. But if he hits like 5 in 20-30, than you get a cheaper deal. You than hope he progresses for the rest of the season.

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08-30-2011, 03:03 PM
  #125
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pretty sure its not on the dumb list.
Poor choice of words.

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