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Vokoun took less money to play with Capitals because 'I want to enjoy hockey'

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Old
08-30-2011, 02:31 PM
  #51
mirimon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
I think the bottom line is:

would it be worth it to risk getting nothing for the chance to get a bargain?

when you factor in that we were moving richie/carter I say ABSOLUTELY NOT.

could you imagine how bad we'd be w/ boucher and our current roster (probably minus jagr)


given this, (that we arent taking the risk, and are going after bryz) it isnt bad negotiating to officially declare you want bryz.

doing so definitely lowered his cap hit. It started a good relationship: he wanted to win, then (after snider stepped in) he wanted to win with us!

(so he shaved off about 500-750k)
Somehow I think the 9 years had more to do with him agreeing to a lower cap hit deal, than the Flyers front office declaring that he was their guy.

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08-30-2011, 02:48 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
I think the bottom line is:

would it be worth it to risk getting nothing for the chance to get a bargain?

when you factor in that we were moving richie/carter I say ABSOLUTELY NOT.

could you imagine how bad we'd be w/ boucher and our current roster (probably minus jagr)


given this, (that we arent taking the risk, and are going after bryz) it isnt bad negotiating to officially declare you want bryz.

doing so definitely lowered his cap hit. It started a good relationship: he wanted to win, then (after snider stepped in) he wanted to win with us!

(so he shaved off about 500-750k)
I think the bottom line is that we differ on the level of risk.

I think a perfect example of my opinion is how I approach Fantasy Baseball auction drafts...seriously, bear with me haha.

A few seasons ago, I'm planning for my fantasy baseball auction draft, and I'm budgeting out exactly how much I'd "like" to spend at each position. I'm taking into account which positions I feel are deep and which positions I feel are not.

Specifically at the shortstop postion, I looked at the available guys and said, I like 3 guys, and only 3 guys. I thought there was a significant drop off after Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins. So I told myself, I HAVE to get one of those 3 in order to field the best team possible, because if I miss out on one of them, I'm going to be stuck with a far lesser option.

(This, imo, is prefectly analogous to Homer looking at goalies. He probably looked at the market. Said he liked these guys, but not these guys, and said, ideally I want him, but I have to get one of these guys because the dropoff is too great if I miss out.)

Come draft day, someone nominates Hanley, who is the highest rated. 10 owners then begin to bid for him. He goes for well over his "projected" value, because, let's face it, people wanted the best, and people also had similar thoughts to mine, in that there was a very clear top tier of players. Quite a few people dropped out early in the bidding thinking "there are other guys I like".

Later, Rollins gets nominated. I decide to bid and bid on him hard because I know that if I don't get him, there is only 1 guy left of the "top tier" and I predict he will be VERY expensive. So I flat out decide, I am getting him. So I bid and bid and get Rollins. I actually get him for just over his projected value, and far cheaper than Hanley. Again people were thinking "I can pass, there are other guys I like". (Presumably, one other guy.)

Reyes gets nominated and ends up going for MORE than Hanley because he is the last valuable commodity with 8 owners bidding on him. It's simple supply and demand, and quite easy to predict. In fact, I expected it, and managed to avoid it. I got the best value for my money, by accurately predicting what would happen.

I expect the best GMs to play the market similarly. If you enter a market in which there is one and ONLY one guy you have to have, then that is risky. Especially a market in which there are multiple suitors for that same player (See Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins.) However, if there are multiple players that you covet, you should be able to approach it appropriately. Push hard for the guy you may have ranked highest, but know when to back out. Then push even harder for the next guy, knowing that if you miss on him, you're left being desperate for the last guy. And you don't want to be that.

This example however, is not analogous to this past offseasn because there were far more owners than valuable commodities. So prices went up. In the case of the goalie market, there were far fewer teams in the market for a goalie. In fact, I'd argue it was 1:1. If you disagree with that, so be it, but as has been pointed out, it really isn't hard to figure out the contending teams that needed a goalie and had money for a goalie.

I also just want to point out again I have NO ISSUE with the Bryzgalov signing. I'm thrilled to have a goalie. I'm not sitting here upset in the slightest. I'm just trying to make the point, that I was fairly confident someone was going to get Vokoun for a REAL bargain once we saw the Avs commit to Varlamov. Admittedly, he signed for quite a bit less than I thought, but I did think he would come fairly cheap.

Halfway through writing this I kind of forgot the crux of my argument haha, but oh well...

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08-30-2011, 02:57 PM
  #53
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You guys over-analyze everything.

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08-30-2011, 02:58 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dikkens View Post
You guys over-analyze everything.
Perhaps you are under-analyzing everything? BURN!

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08-30-2011, 03:00 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
So then why are we having this discussion if we're not assuming Vokoun would sign with us?

We were never going to get a goalie at $1.5m.

Vokoun could have signed in Colorado. Washington would have kept Varlamov, and Bryzgalov could have ended up in Florida.

Who does Philly get? If we're pushing Bryzgalov to wait so we can see what we can get Vokoun for, there's a chance that we lose him. After going decades with no goalie, no one wanted to run that risk.
How can you say we wouldn't have? Somebody did.

From everything Bryzgalov has said what would make you think he would seriously want to consider Florida? He wanted to play for a winner. Florida is not that. Edmonton needs a goalie, why doesn't he sign there?

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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Your whole supply and demand theory doesn't really work in this situation. He received multiple offers. He took less money to play for the Caps. Supply and Demand doesn't really calculate externalities like personal choice. If this were a case of four goalies and four teams all on equal footing, then yes, waiting would have been ok and we would have had one of four goalies for a reasonable price. But all things weren't equal. Bryz was arguably the best goalie. Vokoun was second, and the others fell somewhere after that. I would prefer the best player available, but that is just me. And maybe Vokoun is the best and maybe Bryz is, but if I'm the GM I want the best guy and I am gonna go after him. You want to field the best team possible. Remember when the Flyers signed the Beezer because he was cheaper? That worked out great...

Vokoun has also indicated that he wanted to play for a winner. Did he consider Philly a winner? More so than Washington? Who knows. That is what I am saying. It isn't as simple as just a one for one switch. Obviously the Flyers COULD have signed him if they waited. But they also COULD have signed Bryz if they waited. And they COULD have made a trade for Stamkos or Doughty. And they COULD have signed Brad Richards. And so forth and so on. I am not arguing that it wasn't a POSSIBILITY that he would sign here, but some people seem to be acting like it was more than a possibility. Just go back and look at the Scott Hannan thread.
Correct, supply and demand does not account for personal choice, but knowing what we do know, WE can attempt to adjust the demand accordingly.

This entire article is about Vokoun wanting to play for a contender. Therefore, we can assume one of his "personal choices" is to play for a contender. Subsequently, we can eliminate all the terrible teams in thea league. The demand is adjusted, and it is now a fairly reasonable representation.

I would seriously like you, and anyone else, to literally provide me with a list of teams that you feel were SERIOUS possibilites for a goaltender to land this summer, taking into account that they wanted contenders.

We know that both Vokoun and Bryzgalov wanted to play on contenders. Their comments have said as much.

Of course, there is always the possibility of some dark horse blowing them out of the water with so much money that they can't refuse. That sort of thing can't be predicted.

As for wanting the best. That's totally legitimate. I understand that (hence the reason, I'm ok with everything. Again, I'm thrilled to have a real goalie). However, nobody is arguing that. This entire argument is not about whether we should have went for Vokoun (presumably cheaper) or Bryzgalov. It is SOLELY about whether it was possible to come to a reasonable conclusion that Vokoun would end up being a bargain somewhere.

or at least that's what I'm arguing haha

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08-30-2011, 03:02 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Perhaps you are under-analyzing everything? BURN!
haha

That reminds me of my girlfriend's brother, who is a huge Flyers fan but doesn't get me because I care about contracts and cap hits and the like. "Why does any of that matter?" he says. Well it matters because it directly effects the team that goes out on the ice, that you love so much!

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08-30-2011, 03:06 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
No on is assuming any such thing.

All anyone is arguing is that the idea that one of these goaltenders (probably Vokoun) would end up being a bargain, was possible to foresee.

Serisouly people. Where do you really think these goalies were going to sign. Go back in time a couple months. Please lay out for me the teams that were in the market to sign a goalie. Then lay out for me the available goalies.
bryz would go to russia for 4+

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08-30-2011, 03:13 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I think the bottom line is that we differ on the level of risk.

I think a perfect example of my opinion is how I approach Fantasy Baseball auction drafts...seriously, bear with me haha.

A few seasons ago, I'm planning for my fantasy baseball auction draft, and I'm budgeting out exactly how much I'd "like" to spend at each position. I'm taking into account which positions I feel are deep and which positions I feel are not.

Specifically at the shortstop postion, I looked at the available guys and said, I like 3 guys, and only 3 guys. I thought there was a significant drop off after Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins. So I told myself, I HAVE to get one of those 3 in order to field the best team possible, because if I miss out on one of them, I'm going to be stuck with a far lesser option.

(This, imo, is prefectly analogous to Homer looking at goalies. He probably looked at the market. Said he liked these guys, but not these guys, and said, ideally I want him, but I have to get one of these guys because the dropoff is too great if I miss out.)

Come draft day, someone nominates Hanley, who is the highest rated. 10 owners then begin to bid for him. He goes for well over his "projected" value, because, let's face it, people wanted the best, and people also had similar thoughts to mine, in that there was a very clear top tier of players. Quite a few people dropped out early in the bidding thinking "there are other guys I like".

Later, Rollins gets nominated. I decide to bid and bid on him hard because I know that if I don't get him, there is only 1 guy left of the "top tier" and I predict he will be VERY expensive. So I flat out decide, I am getting him. So I bid and bid and get Rollins. I actually get him for just over his projected value, and far cheaper than Hanley. Again people were thinking "I can pass, there are other guys I like". (Presumably, one other guy.)

Reyes gets nominated and ends up going for MORE than Hanley because he is the last valuable commodity with 8 owners bidding on him. It's simple supply and demand, and quite easy to predict. In fact, I expected it, and managed to avoid it. I got the best value for my money, by accurately predicting what would happen.

I expect the best GMs to play the market similarly. If you enter a market in which there is one and ONLY one guy you have to have, then that is risky. Especially a market in which there are multiple suitors for that same player (See Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins.) However, if there are multiple players that you covet, you should be able to approach it appropriately. Push hard for the guy you may have ranked highest, but know when to back out. Then push even harder for the next guy, knowing that if you miss on him, you're left being desperate for the last guy. And you don't want to be that.

This example however, is not analogous to this past offseasn because there were far more owners than valuable commodities. So prices went up. In the case of the goalie market, there were far fewer teams in the market for a goalie. In fact, I'd argue it was 1:1. If you disagree with that, so be it, but as has been pointed out, it really isn't hard to figure out the contending teams that needed a goalie and had money for a goalie.
ive never disagreed with that... ?
I also just want to point out again I have NO ISSUE with the Bryzgalov signing. I'm thrilled to have a goalie. I'm not sitting here upset in the slightest. I'm just trying to make the point, that I was fairly confident someone was going to get Vokoun for a REAL bargain once we saw the Avs commit to Varlamov. Admittedly, he signed for quite a bit less than I thought, but I did think he would come fairly cheap.

Halfway through writing this I kind of forgot the crux of my argument haha, but oh well...
Sure that makes sense, but think about risk V reward...

whats the reward of a 1 year 1.5mil vokoun to us? (with no richie/carter)
whats the risk of having boucher instead of any goalie. (pretty fu-king high)

thats all there is to it. You have to take risks in sports to get ahead, but you also have to be careful. Having nothing from being greedy is a lot worse than playing it safe (especially in net)

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08-30-2011, 03:17 PM
  #59
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Signing Bryz until he's 40 with a 5.6 mil cap hit isn't exactly careful. It's incredibly risky, actually.

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08-30-2011, 03:18 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
bryz would go to russia for 4+
I can't tell if you're joking, or what?

He is making more than 4 already.

He was quoted multiple times as saying he wasn't going to Russia, even if they paid him double or triple the money.

http://www.sports.ru/en/hockey/117276118.html

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08-30-2011, 03:23 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
How can you say we wouldn't have? Somebody did.

From everything Bryzgalov has said what would make you think he would seriously want to consider Florida? He wanted to play for a winner. Florida is not that. Edmonton needs a goalie, why doesn't he sign there?



Correct, supply and demand does not account for personal choice, but knowing what we do know, WE can attempt to adjust the demand accordingly.

This entire article is about Vokoun wanting to play for a contender. Therefore, we can assume one of his "personal choices" is to play for a contender. Subsequently, we can eliminate all the terrible teams in thea league. The demand is adjusted, and it is now a fairly reasonable representation.

I would seriously like you, and anyone else, to literally provide me with a list of teams that you feel were SERIOUS possibilites for a goaltender to land this summer, taking into account that they wanted contenders.

We know that both Vokoun and Bryzgalov wanted to play on contenders. Their comments have said as much.

Of course, there is always the possibility of some dark horse blowing them out of the water with so much money that they can't refuse. That sort of thing can't be predicted.

As for wanting the best. That's totally legitimate. I understand that (hence the reason, I'm ok with everything. Again, I'm thrilled to have a real goalie). However, nobody is arguing that. This entire argument is not about whether we should have went for Vokoun (presumably cheaper) or Bryzgalov. It is SOLELY about whether it was possible to come to a reasonable conclusion that Vokoun would end up being a bargain somewhere.

or at least that's what I'm arguing haha
Fair enough. That is what I said in my last post responding to Jester. I was under the impression that most folks on here were saying we would have gotten Vokoun and it was stupid to sign Bryz because Vokoun signed for less. That is far from a guarantee. Obviously it was a possibility. I would never argue otherwise because that is just silly. I'm just happy we have a real goalie.

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08-30-2011, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Signing Bryz until he's 40 with a 5.6 mil cap hit isn't exactly careful. It's incredibly risky, actually.
5.6mil won't worth the same thing as it worths right now in 9 years.

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08-30-2011, 03:27 PM
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5.6mil won't worth the same thing as it worths right now in 9 years.
Yeah, we don't know that. It's possible cap growth flattens out or even goes down in the future.

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08-30-2011, 03:30 PM
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Yeah, we don't know that. It's possible the cap flattens out or even goes down in the future.
I'd be very very very surprised. Salaries pretty much always get higher and higher with time.

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08-30-2011, 03:39 PM
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I'd be very very very surprised. Salaries pretty much always get higher and higher with time.
That's because the NHL has slowly been making more money. I personally think it's a very bad strategy to assume cap hits will be less relevant in the future because the cap will keep indefinitely going up; it's not a given that is the case. For instance, from 08-09 the cap only went up from 56.7 to 56.8.

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08-30-2011, 03:42 PM
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Meh...dollar as a reserve currency will lose it's hold by that time anyway...Bryzgalov should have negotiated his contract in Yuan/RMB

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08-30-2011, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
That's because the NHL has slowly been making more money. I personally think it's a very bad strategy to assume cap hits will be less relevant in the future because the cap will keep indefinitely going up; it's not a given that is the case. For instance, from 08-09 the cap only went up from 56.7 to 56.8.
Yeah, for one year, not for 9. From 08-11 (3 years, including that bad year), it went from 56.7 to 64.3. So in 9 years, it should be high enough to make a difference.

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08-30-2011, 04:05 PM
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Yeah, for one year, not for 9. From 08-11 (3 years, including that bad year), it went from 56.7 to 64.3. So in 9 years, it should be high enough to make a difference.
Yeah...maybe. Assuming it doesn't get reworked at all. The salary cap is quickly becoming pointless; lower income teams can't really afford to spend up to the cap, and some of them are even struggling to meet the cap floor without acquiring players with low salaries and high hits. If the NHL wants to continue fostering parity, something is gonna need to give.

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08-30-2011, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Yeah...maybe. Assuming it doesn't get reworked at all. The salary cap is quickly becoming pointless; lower income teams can't really afford to spend up to the cap, and some of them are even struggling to meet the cap floor without acquiring players with low salaries and high hits. If the NHL wants to continue fostering parity, something is gonna need to give.
Well, only time will tell I guess. Still, I'm not mad that we have Bryzgalov instead of Vokoun, goalies tend to be great at the beginning of the 30's and we have him long term at a reasonable cap hit, he's a proven solid #1 and I tend to believe that he'll be better than Vokoun next year. Vokoun's cap hit is obviously better, but what can we do, we still have something good.

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08-30-2011, 04:15 PM
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Sure that makes sense, but think about risk V reward...

whats the reward of a 1 year 1.5mil vokoun to us? (with no richie/carter)
whats the risk of having boucher instead of any goalie. (pretty fu-king high)

thats all there is to it. You have to take risks in sports to get ahead, but you also have to be careful. Having nothing from being greedy is a lot worse than playing it safe (especially in net)
Who killed Bob?

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08-30-2011, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
That's because the NHL has slowly been making more money. I personally think it's a very bad strategy to assume cap hits will be less relevant in the future because the cap will keep indefinitely going up; it's not a given that is the case. For instance, from 08-09 the cap only went up from 56.7 to 56.8.
We also have a new CBA coming, and a lot of teams that are going to be pushing hard to lower the cap formula.

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08-30-2011, 04:18 PM
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Well, only time will tell I guess. Still, I'm not mad that we have Bryzgalov instead of Vokoun, goalies tend to be great at the beginning of the 30's and we have him long term at a reasonable cap hit, he's a proven solid #1 and I tend to believe that he'll be better than Vokoun next year. Vokoun's cap hit is obviously better, but what can we do, we still have something good.
Yeah, either way, it's going to be refreshing to have an established netminder.

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08-30-2011, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Signing Bryz until he's 40 with a 5.6 mil cap hit isn't exactly careful. It's incredibly risky, actually.
not as risky as icing a boucher/bob tandem with our current roster

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08-30-2011, 04:35 PM
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I can't tell if you're joking, or what?

He is making more than 4 already.

He was quoted multiple times as saying he wasn't going to Russia, even if they paid him double or triple the money.

http://www.sports.ru/en/hockey/117276118.html
(if there were no suitors; ie demand)

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08-30-2011, 04:37 PM
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We also have a new CBA coming, and a lot of teams that are going to be pushing hard to lower the cap formula.
please hold your breath on that one.




seriously, the NHLPA and richer teams have all of the leverage.

(its kind of funny you make these "what ifs" about the CBA, which are very VERY unlikely, but jump on people for saying "if pronger is healthy". Even though the latter actually could happen)

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