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Are the Habs screwed?

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Old
08-31-2011, 04:52 AM
  #1
UniverStalinGraduate*
 
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Are the Habs screwed?

When it comes to the cap? Not at all. Check out this very similar "projected" lineup for next season, with a 1.5 million increase on the cap being afforded. That is a very conservative estimate as well.

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Mike Cammalleri ($6.000m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Brian Gionta ($5.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Max Pacioretty ($1.625m)
David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Lars Eller ($2.250m) / Aaron Palushaj ($0.850m)
Ryan White ($0.750m) / Andreas Enqvist ($0.750m) / Mathieu Darche ($0.750m)
Brock Trotter ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.100m)
Alexei Yemelin ($1.500m) / PK Subban ($3.750m)
Yannick Weber ($0.850m) / Hal Gill ($2.000m)
Brendan Nash ($0.700m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($5.250m) / Peter Budaj ($1.150m)


CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $65,800,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,382,143; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $5,417,857

As you can see I just internally filled most of the holes. That looks like a decent team there and there's a bunch of cap space as well. What my point here is, is that even with signing their key guys and looking at next year their cap situation is actually pretty solid. Almost all of their top forwards won't put up the points to justify their contracts but for certain they will all play well enough that at the end of the day their salaries are really a non issue.

I think people hate to admit it, but the Habs are poised to become one of the best teams in the league for many years to come.

The scariest part is that they have the assets and would probably trade the assets, for an available top player.

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Old
08-31-2011, 06:19 AM
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Celtic Cross
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Next season Gomez cap goes down to 5mill

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08-31-2011, 06:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Celtic Cross View Post
Next season Gomez cap goes down to 5mill
His Cap hit doesn't go down......his salary decreases which will make him much more moveable.

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08-31-2011, 06:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Celtic Cross View Post
Next season Gomez cap goes down to 5mill
As the poster above me said, a cap hit never changes, it's only the players salary that could possibly change, depending on their contract numbers from year to year. Gomez will still count as 7.3m next year even if he's only making 5 million.

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Old
08-31-2011, 07:21 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
His Cap hit doesn't go down......his salary decreases which will make him much more moveable.
Yep. A Team that needs to hit Cap floor but dosnt want to pay a industrial amount in return for the player and from their owners pockets will most possibly take a look at Gomez which will make him more movable.

Thats also circumstensial. This year we are alright. Yes we need to resign people next Year, but we'll have a few free agents we probably wont resign

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Old
08-31-2011, 07:45 AM
  #6
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we would be in cap heaven without Gomez. We're almost in cap hell with him.

That being said, the fact that Spacek goes next year helps a lot, since most of his salary will be used on Price. Many people wanted us to resign Hamrlik or even Wisniewski without realizing that this would put us in a lot of trouble for next year.

I think Gauthier played his cards wisely on this one and it's looking great for next season, beside the fact that our core of big salaries isn't getting any younger.

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Old
08-31-2011, 08:19 AM
  #7
Kriss E
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Originally Posted by wedge View Post
we would be in cap heaven without Gomez. We're almost in cap hell with him.
No we're not. The NYR were when it was down around 53M. But nowadays the cap is really high. Gomez's hit remains high but it's not restraining us from anything. We were able to re-sign all the players we wanted, add a PF up front for the top6, and still keep a big cushion. We are not in cap hell at all.

As for the line up posted by the OP, I think it would be a big regression from our current one.

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Old
08-31-2011, 08:40 AM
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Anyone know the UFA centers possibly available for next summer? I have a feeling, even though Gomez may be movable, I think we may be faced with a similar problem of not being able to fill his shoes, unless of course we have an internal option. Whether Gomez is movable depends more on whether Eller develops into a capable 2nd line center than his perceived trade value based on his lower salary.

He could very well be movable based on his decreased salary, but it still might not make sense from a Habs perspective.

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08-31-2011, 08:47 AM
  #9
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Whether Gomez is movable depends more on whether Eller develops into a capable 2nd line center than his perceived trade value based on his lower salary.
This is true, but I'd say based on Eller's puck possession and how Martin was using him near the end of the season (slowly dipping him into the fire), that Eller is one, at most two years away from being a decent second-line center.

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Old
08-31-2011, 08:48 AM
  #10
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
No we're not. The NYR were when it was down around 53M. But nowadays the cap is really high. Gomez's hit remains high but it's not restraining us from anything. We were able to re-sign all the players we wanted, add a PF up front for the top6, and still keep a big cushion. We are not in cap hell at all.

As for the line up posted by the OP, I think it would be a big regression from our current one.
ya I think that lineup is missing a top 9 forward and another top 4 d-men. I'd love to add Tim Gleason to our d-core next year.

But I believe the point he was making is very true, with the cap space we have left this year (5M), Gomez isn't stopping us from doing anything, and Spacek being paid 3.8 for a decent 5/6 d-men isn't an issue either. I wish somehow that fool Pierre Mcguire would see this, that idiot was going on and on about how the Habs were going to loss all their key players because of their cap situation 2 years ago.

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Old
08-31-2011, 09:02 AM
  #11
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With that cap space they'll allow the #9 of the top 9 to be Palushaj/Future forward and they'll spend the money on a stop gap D until Beaulieu/Tinordi/etc are ready.

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Old
08-31-2011, 09:22 AM
  #12
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
This is true, but I'd say based on Eller's puck possession and how Martin was using him near the end of the season (slowly dipping him into the fire), that Eller is one, at most two years away from being a decent second-line center.
That remains to be seen. If he does show signs this year, do you think Martin will give him the opportunity to showcase his progression at the cost of Gomez's ice time? I have my doubts, Martin may ease him in, but if we have learned anything from the past, it should be that Gomez's ice time is gonna be Gomez's ice time, no matter how poorly he's performing, maybe that will change if Martin feels he has another viable option, but I remain skeptical at best.

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08-31-2011, 09:50 AM
  #13
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
That remains to be seen. If he does show signs this year, do you think Martin will give him the opportunity to showcase his progression at the cost of Gomez's ice time?
In 2010-2011, Martin has shown no hesitation to give progressing youth increasingly greater responsibilities. It happened a bit more quickly in Subban's case than he would've like, I'm sure, but if a kid eats a vet's lunch, the kid will end up with the job.

The reason Gomez kept getting his icetime is because in spite of his point production, he was not performing poorly; indeed, he was generating scoring chances and outchancing the opposition. Martin has an army of associates and assistants poring over videos; he'll notice these things where less analytical observers (like most media types) might evaluate a player on the sole basis of his points total. Absent a valid alternative, Martin was wise to allow Gomez to continue to generate scoring chances and hope something would finally go in; besides, there's really no other way to get out of a funk out of this type.

Of course, it doesn't help that Eller, specifically, had the same problem with low conversion rate as Gomez for most of the year...

Besides, I'd say you're unlikely to see Gomez's icetime drop unless his puck possession and scoring chance differential start to suffer; what you'll see is him getting different icetime, where he gets more third-line competition and Eller gets increasingly more minutes against second-line opposition.

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Old
08-31-2011, 09:54 AM
  #14
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
In 2010-2011, Martin has shown no hesitation to give progressing youth increasingly greater responsibilities. It happened a bit more quickly in Subban's case than he would've like, I'm sure, but if a kid eats a vet's lunch, the kid will end up with the job.

The reason Gomez kept getting his icetime is because in spite of his point production, he was not performing poorly; indeed, he was generating scoring chances and outchancing the opposition. Martin has an army of associates and assistants poring over videos; he'll notice these things where less analytical observers might get blinded by the points total.

Absent a valid alternative, Martin was wise to allow Gomez to continue to generate scoring chances and hope something would finally go in; besides, there's really no other way to get out of a funk out of this type.
You're probably right. At least I hope you are. I didn't really see much indication Eller is going to be ready at some point this year though. He made some improvements down the stretch, but he's still got a ways to go.

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Old
08-31-2011, 10:49 AM
  #15
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
You're probably right. At least I hope you are. I didn't really see much indication Eller is going to be ready at some point this year though. He made some improvements down the stretch, but he's still got a ways to go.
He was getting increasingly tougher minutes and doing well with them. I'd say he'll start eating into second-line toughs by the end of next season, especially since the Habs have enough depth to give him wingers that can be positive against top-6ers.

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Old
08-31-2011, 11:56 AM
  #16
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Can't wait for a bad goal from Price at 5,2 per year...

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Old
08-31-2011, 12:03 PM
  #17
MasterD
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Subban will get much more than that me things... Price must go up to 6, but I hope not, for his mental health. Give him longer terms to compensate, but at 6 millions$/year people will be on his ass at every bad goal

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Old
08-31-2011, 12:59 PM
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A decision will have to be made with Kostitsyn and Gill that's for sure. If Kostitsyn doesn't come back I really hope we can get something for him. As for Gill it will all depend on how Markov's and Gorges seasons go regarding injuries and also on how Yemelin and Weber develop. I agree that we are in a good position regarding the cap going forward, even with Price and PK looking at some big time raises

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Old
08-31-2011, 01:05 PM
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Kriss E
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Originally Posted by MasterD View Post
Subban will get much more than that me things... Price must go up to 6, but I hope not, for his mental health. Give him longer terms to compensate, but at 6 millions$/year people will be on his ass at every bad goal
I'd be quite surprised if PK gets more than that to be honest, and there's no way Price hits 6M. Both should add up to around 8-9M.

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Old
08-31-2011, 01:12 PM
  #20
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I'd be quite surprised if PK gets more than that to be honest, and there's no way Price hits 6M. Both should add up to around 8-9M.
PK has minimal leverage as an RFA with no arbitration. Its the contract after that one where he'll start making bank.

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Old
08-31-2011, 02:23 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
PK has minimal leverage as an RFA with no arbitration. Its the contract after that one where he'll start making bank.
Yeah, I fully expect his contract next year to be for 2 years.


To the poster who said that lineup would have a big regression, there was cap space to address some needs and I personally didn't think that line up looked bad at all. A little young, but it's a young mans game these dyas.

Anyways, glad to hear your guys' input on this. What will be very interesting is if Gomez continues to tail off and the Habs move him out...

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Old
08-31-2011, 05:08 PM
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Not in trouble, the trouble comes in 2014. Two of the team's best scorers, Gionta and Camalleri will be free agents. Markov's contract ends.

The team will need two first line wingers and an elite defence man. A center will be needed as Gomez's contract will be up too. Markov will be back though but his best years will be pass him.

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Old
08-31-2011, 05:42 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Lars Eller ($2.250m) / Aaron Palushaj ($0.850m)
Ryan White ($0.750m) / Andreas Enqvist ($0.750m) / Mathieu Darche ($0.750m)
Brock Trotter ($0.650m)
I wouldn't be thrilled about that depth up front. If Kostitsyn leaves, I think the Habs have to bring in a replacement. Looking at the 3rd lines in Buffalo, Boston and even Toronto, you have to have some proven talent in that spot to be competitive. IMO the Habs should budget for something like:

UFA/trade-Eller-Kostitsyn/UFA/trade
Desharnais-Engqvist-White
Trotter/Palushaj/Blunden/other

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Old
08-31-2011, 06:28 PM
  #24
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Just enjoy the games, is what I say.

Leave the cap technicalities to those who actually have the power.

But that's no fun is it?

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Old
08-31-2011, 06:48 PM
  #25
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Next season Gomez cap goes down to 5mill
We should make you gm. The completely one side trade proposals you make can save us and turn us into a perennial cup contender.

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