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The Hockey News predicts Habs will finish 8th in East

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Old
09-01-2011, 07:05 PM
  #301
MathMan
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Originally Posted by Bill McNeal View Post
Oh, I definitely agree. I don't get into the numbers games as deeply as you two do, but I think any Habs fan just using their own two eyes to assess the team's play should have seen a noted difference between last season's team and teams of the recent past.
I'd think so too, unfortunately, that would mean that a lot (and I'd go so far as say a majority) of Habs fans don't use their own two eyes to assess the team. Apparently, they scored 216 goals this year and 217 last year so... same old popgun offense with way too many smurfs and not enough grit.

And then I get told I'm blinded by numbers.

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09-01-2011, 07:18 PM
  #302
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Oh, I definitely agree. I don't get into the numbers games as deeply as you two do, but I think any Habs fan just using their own two eyes to assess the team's play should have seen a noted difference between last season's team and teams of the recent past.

And I'm hoping for the bolded. Given how well the team played last year and how healthy our forwards were it's a shame the team didn't put up more goals. But as Mathman alluded to, you can't ignore the impact that losing a Markov has on the offense as well.
My favorite advanced stat from last year was that it was the first one in a while when the typical Habs player got to start more in the offensive zone than the defensive. For once they weren't getting hemmed in their own zone. Subban especially played a huge role in that shift particularly towards the end, as he's a one man transition game by himself but the much better team depth also played a big role. Compare Darche-Desharnias-White as a forth line to Stewart-Chipchura-Laraque and its no contest.

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09-01-2011, 09:11 PM
  #303
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I'd think so too, unfortunately, that would mean that a lot (and I'd go so far as say a majority) of Habs fans don't use their own two eyes to assess the team. Apparently, they scored 216 goals this year and 217 last year so... same old popgun offense with way too many smurfs and not enough grit.

And then I get told I'm blinded by numbers.
People don't know how to evaluate things properly. You know already know this. The reactionary posts during the season makes this pretty darn obvious.
How many games did Lafleur Guy watch Staal play? How many of them did he actually scout Staal, which means, quality of opponents, his linemates, where he spent most of his time, how he handled defensive duties in his zone, etc...?? Probably none.
Heck, forget about Staal, how many did he even watch doing that with Plekanec??? Probably none either.
And there's nothing wrong with that because we're fans. Over here though, many forget that they are just that, fans. As hurtful as it might be for some to admit, most fans really don't know much of anything.

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09-01-2011, 11:12 PM
  #304
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How many games did Lafleur Guy watch Staal play?
Enough to know that he's better than Thomas Plekanec.

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09-02-2011, 08:23 AM
  #305
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Agreed. Which is funny considering all the talk of the Habs being too small and soft to endure the rigours of a long season.

What does concern me is that the Habs were extremely healthy up front last season and still struggled to produce offensively. Even if those players that had down seasons last year bounce back, we shouldn't count on our offense being that healthy again.

Or maybe our forwards are just really resilient.
Markov is the single biggest cog in the Habs offense, the fact that he is a d-man doesn't lessen his impact both on the PP(which was well below normal 1st half) and 5 on 5.

Taking a 100% optimistic view(not all these things will play themselves out but all have a chance)...

1-Markov can come back and play 75 games and put up 55-60 points...big contribution 5 on 5 and PP.

2-Pacioretty plays a full season and chips in 20-25(he scored 14 in 37 last year, 31 prorated over 82 games) and provides a strong forecheck.

3-Cole contributes 20-25 mostly 5 on 5 and brings a physical edge and net driving presence.

4-Gomez rebounds to 55-60 points.

5-Cammalleri finally stays healthy(77-82 games) and puts up 30 goals(19 last year)

6-Subban keeps building on last year's 2nd half(27 of 38 points after January 1st) and puts up 45-50 points.

7-Eller and Desharnais keep progressing and providing offensive depth in a support role(25-35 points each).

Again, not all those things will come to pass, but totalling all that would add about 70-80 goals to our offense. That would put us at #1 overall...but I think relisically we can expect about 245-255 out of a relatively healthy Habs team which should put us around 5th to 10th in the league offensively. Worst case we should still add 17-20 goals and move to mid pack(14-18 overall)

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09-02-2011, 08:32 AM
  #306
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Enough to know that he's better than Thomas Plekanec.
I think Staal is better than Plekanec, but Pleks is very underrated and his offense is hurt a bit by being used in a ton of defensive situations. The difference between the two is not huge.

Last 2 years

Staal 151 GP 62-84-146 -6
Pleks 159 GP 47-80-127 +13

If you factor in that they get about the same ice time but Plekanec spends more time on PK, the difference is not huge.

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09-02-2011, 08:43 AM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
They're way deeper on forward than they were at the start of last season when they only had 5 top six caliber forwards so that should help. Going by pure average luck the regression to the mean from poor shooting performances should be a way bigger plus than the negative of more injuries. The second line was an absolute black hole for missed scoring chances all year with the situation only slightly righted by the Pacioretty-Gomez-Gionta line's success. Even they scored more by shear volume of chances generated than from the favour of the hockey gods.

The shear volume of blown chances that occurred when Gomez was on the ice was so epic it was almost biblical.
Want to see the best single player example of this of all time?

People whined about Kovalev being inconsistent blah blah blah, check this out:

2005-06 NHL 69 23 42 65
2006-07 NHL 73 18 29 47
2007-08 NHL 82 35 49 84
2008-09 NHL 78 26 39 65

65pts, 47pts, 84pts, 65pts

47 + 84 = 131
131 / 2 = 65.5

Best pure example of the bolded I've ever seen in the NHL.

Pretend that was one 164 game season for a second. Kovalev produced at a 65.5 points @ 82 game pace those two years.

Not only did he have a lot of trouble shooting that year but his assist totals were abysmal (nobody else was finishing too well either on his line)

Then the next year as luck would have it he started burying more.

It's like when Gomer had like 19pts in 41 games and then had like 40pts in 41 games, except it's over the course of 2 seasons.

Complete fluke? Or regression to the mean? You decide.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
I think Staal is better than Plekanec, but Pleks is very underrated and his offense is hurt a bit by being used in a ton of defensive situations. The difference between the two is not huge.

Last 2 years

Staal 151 GP 62-84-146 -6
Pleks 159 GP 47-80-127 +13

If you factor in that they get about the same ice time but Plekanec spends more time on PK, the difference is not huge.
If Staal is a product of Crosby/Malkin then I wouldn't be so sure. If he continues to improve and eventually shows he's a #1B then sure. I'd be curious to see how many of his points came in conjunction with Malkin or Crosby though. Not saying he couldn't produce more if he was a teams #1C just saying it remains to be seen. He's always been on a stacked contender with the likes of Crosby and Malkin. When I see him play I love what I see and he's so young, but I do think there are still some question marks on whether or not he's playing at, above or under his potential or will ever reach that full potential. I'd have to see him on another team as their #1 or #2 to really know if he's that good.

He plays on a team that is stacked big time. Plus put Plek on the PP with Malkin and Crosby pretty sure he'd be a 70pt+ guy even as their 3rd line C.


Last edited by neofury*: 09-02-2011 at 08:48 AM.
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09-02-2011, 09:04 AM
  #308
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Originally Posted by neofury View Post
Want to see the best single player example of this of all time?

People whined about Kovalev being inconsistent blah blah blah, check this out:

2005-06 NHL 69 23 42 65
2006-07 NHL 73 18 29 47
2007-08 NHL 82 35 49 84
2008-09 NHL 78 26 39 65

65pts, 47pts, 84pts, 65pts

47 + 84 = 131
131 / 2 = 65.5

Best pure example of the bolded I've ever seen in the NHL.

Pretend that was one 164 game season for a second. Kovalev produced at a 65.5 points @ 82 game pace those two years.

Not only did he have a lot of trouble shooting that year but his assist totals were abysmal (nobody else was finishing too well either on his line)

Then the next year as luck would have it he started burying more.

It's like when Gomer had like 19pts in 41 games and then had like 40pts in 41 games, except it's over the course of 2 seasons.

Complete fluke? Or regression to the mean? You decide.



If Staal is a product of Crosby/Malkin then I wouldn't be so sure. If he continues to improve and eventually shows he's a #1B then sure. I'd be curious to see how many of his points came in conjunction with Malkin or Crosby though. Not saying he couldn't produce more if he was a teams #1C just saying it remains to be seen. He's always been on a stacked contender with the likes of Crosby and Malkin. When I see him play I love what I see and he's so young, but I do think there are still some question marks on whether or not he's playing at, above or under his potential or will ever reach that full potential. I'd have to see him on another team as their #1 or #2 to really know if he's that good.

He plays on a team that is stacked big time. Plus put Plek on the PP with Malkin and Crosby pretty sure he'd be a 70pt+ guy even as their 3rd line C.
I'm talking Erik Staal not Jordan.

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09-02-2011, 09:58 AM
  #309
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On the topic of injuries, does anybody have the numbers for man games lost in the 2006-07 season? I'm trying to get all the numbers since the lockout and can't find those anywhere. Also missing the numbers for the Blue Jackets, Rangers and Senators in the 2005-06 season.

With what I do have, summing up all the MGL for every season since the lockout except 2006-07, Habs ranked 22nd in the league. Possibly 23rd, as Ottawa is 227 games behind without their 2006 numbers.

Certainly not the grim picture a lot of Habs fans paint about the health of the team over the years. Obviously losing our best player so often hurts, but it certainly skews our perception of how injured our club really is.

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09-02-2011, 10:23 AM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Bill McNeal View Post
On the topic of injuries, does anybody have the numbers for man games lost in the 2006-07 season? I'm trying to get all the numbers since the lockout and can't find those anywhere. Also missing the numbers for the Blue Jackets, Rangers and Senators in the 2005-06 season.

With what I do have, summing up all the MGL for every season since the lockout except 2006-07, Habs ranked 22nd in the league. Possibly 23rd, as Ottawa is 227 games behind without their 2006 numbers.

Certainly not the grim picture a lot of Habs fans paint about the health of the team over the years. Obviously losing our best player so often hurts, but it certainly skews our perception of how injured our club really is.
It's not just perception...any team losing it's top player or two of their 5 best for an extended period will hurt a lot more thahn your #10-11-12 forwards for 2 months. The last 20-30% of the lineup you can replace with somebody nearly as good from AHL or pretty cheap by trade, it's when guys like Price, Plekanec Cammy, Subban, Markov etc miss a big chunk that it has to hurt.

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09-02-2011, 10:34 AM
  #311
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It's not just perception...any team losing it's top player or two of their 5 best for an extended period will hurt a lot more thahn your #10-11-12 forwards for 2 months. The last 20-30% of the lineup you can replace with somebody nearly as good from AHL or pretty cheap by trade, it's when guys like Price, Plekanec Cammy, Subban, Markov etc miss a big chunk that it has to hurt.
Yes, but the only guy out of that group who consistently misses large chunks of the season is Markov. Maybe Cammalleri to a lesser extent. Every team puts up with these types of injuries but Habs fans are under the impression that it's only us. Last season the Pens lost both Malkin and Crosby, the Isles lost Streit, New Jersey and Parise, Boston and Savard, Anaheim and Hiller, Buffalo and Roy. It's a fact of life that some of your good players are going to get injured.

Before Markov's knee became a problem (that is the past 2 seasons) the Habs finished 19th in the league in MGL for 2006, 28th in 2008 and 13th in 2009. Markov missed 19 regular season games over that span, and yet Habs fans were still complaining that the team was too injury prone.

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09-02-2011, 10:56 AM
  #312
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Yes, but the only guy out of that group who consistently misses large chunks of the season is Markov. Maybe Cammalleri to a lesser extent. Every team puts up with these types of injuries but Habs fans are under the impression that it's only us. Last season the Pens lost both Malkin and Crosby, the Isles lost Streit, New Jersey and Parise, Boston and Savard, Anaheim and Hiller, Buffalo and Roy. It's a fact of life that some of your good players are going to get injured.

Before Markov's knee became a problem (that is the past 2 seasons) the Habs finished 19th in the league in MGL for 2006, 28th in 2008 and 13th in 2009. Markov missed 19 regular season games over that span, and yet Habs fans were still complaining that the team was too injury prone.
...and the Islanders sucked despite adding players and having young players come into their own. Pittsburgh was no longer a contender. Buffalo nearly missed the playoffs and had to go out and get Boyes. New Jersey had a disastrous season(finished like 25th overall!).

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09-02-2011, 11:00 AM
  #313
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...and the Islanders sucked despite adding players and having young players come into their own. Pittsburgh was no longer a contender. Buffalo nearly missed the playoffs and had to go out and get Boyes. New Jersey had a disastrous season(finished like 25th overall!).
And Boston won the Cup and Anaheim finished with 99 points when they were in 9th place when Hiller's vertigo hit. So all these teams had varying degrees of success with their injuries. I don't see how this disproves the fact that Habs fans overestimate the effect of injuries on their team relative to the rest of the league.

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09-02-2011, 11:04 AM
  #314
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Yes, but the only guy out of that group who consistently misses large chunks of the season is Markov. Maybe Cammalleri to a lesser extent. Every team puts up with these types of injuries but Habs fans are under the impression that it's only us. Last season the Pens lost both Malkin and Crosby, the Isles lost Streit, New Jersey and Parise, Boston and Savard, Anaheim and Hiller, Buffalo and Roy. It's a fact of life that some of your good players are going to get injured.

Before Markov's knee became a problem (that is the past 2 seasons) the Habs finished 19th in the league in MGL for 2006, 28th in 2008 and 13th in 2009. Markov missed 19 regular season games over that span, and yet Habs fans were still complaining that the team was too injury prone.
09-10 was a bit unusual not in the amount of games lost but that it was disproportionately to the top of the lineup. We do have to balance the bad years with years like 07-08 where injury luck was heavily in Montreal's favour. The only truly unlucky problem has been missing their best skater for most of the past two years but that puts them in the "worse than average" catagory more than the "screwed by injury" situation that some teams get.

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09-02-2011, 11:26 AM
  #315
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09-10 was a bit unusual not in the amount of games lost but that it was disproportionately to the top of the lineup. We do have to balance the bad years with years like 07-08 where injury luck was heavily in Montreal's favour. The only truly unlucky problem has been missing their best skater for most of the past two years but that puts them in the "worse than average" catagory more than the "screwed by injury" situation that some teams get.
That's all I'm saying. Overall, we could be far worse off than we have been in the recent past. The Habs injury woes since the lockout can be classified as 'just part of the game' as far as I'm concerned and there's no reason to believe the Habs will be extraordinarily injured next season nor unusually healthy. Compare that to a team like the Islanders, who on top of just not being a very good team since 2005 have had an average of over 400 MGL in those 5 seasons I have the numbers for.

I'll be the first to give credit to the Habs for their efforts last season in making up for their huge losses on D. It was a situation that was a bit on the extreme end of things given the talent lost and all at the same position. But overall since the lockout, the team really hasn't been that hard done by.

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09-02-2011, 11:49 AM
  #316
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And Boston won the Cup and Anaheim finished with 99 points when they were in 9th place when Hiller's vertigo hit. So all these teams had varying degrees of success with their injuries. I don't see how this disproves the fact that Habs fans overestimate the effect of injuries on their team relative to the rest of the league.
Well the Habs finished 6th in the conference even with Markovbasically missing the year and Gorges playing hurt then missing the second half...but I think with a healthy Markov they may have finished top 3 which could have been the difference in getting to round 2 and maybe 3.

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09-02-2011, 11:54 AM
  #317
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Enough to know that he's better than Thomas Plekanec.
Hee Hee. I like all you guys, but LG's got wit you gotta admit.

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09-02-2011, 12:02 PM
  #318
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Markov is the single biggest cog in the Habs offense, the fact that he is a d-man doesn't lessen his impact both on the PP(which was well below normal 1st half) and 5 on 5.

Taking a 100% optimistic view(not all these things will play themselves out but all have a chance)...

1-Markov can come back and play 75 games and put up 55-60 points...big contribution 5 on 5 and PP.

2-Pacioretty plays a full season and chips in 20-25(he scored 14 in 37 last year, 31 prorated over 82 games) and provides a strong forecheck.

3-Cole contributes 20-25 mostly 5 on 5 and brings a physical edge and net driving presence.

4-Gomez rebounds to 55-60 points.

5-Cammalleri finally stays healthy(77-82 games) and puts up 30 goals(19 last year)

6-Subban keeps building on last year's 2nd half(27 of 38 points after January 1st) and puts up 45-50 points.

7-Eller and Desharnais keep progressing and providing offensive depth in a support role(25-35 points each).

Again, not all those things will come to pass, but totalling all that would add about 70-80 goals to our offense. That would put us at #1 overall...but I think relisically we can expect about 245-255 out of a relatively healthy Habs team which should put us around 5th to 10th in the league offensively. Worst case we should still add 17-20 goals and move to mid pack(14-18 overall)
Good post. I'm being much more conservative, and even so, with 10% injury time factored in for all roster players this year, I'm calling 230 goals.

And I think 200 against is reasonable also. 30 goal diff this year. Book it. If I'm wrong, you guys can laugh at every one of my posts next year, with max abuse. I'll take it.

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09-02-2011, 12:21 PM
  #319
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And Boston won the Cup and Anaheim finished with 99 points when they were in 9th place when Hiller's vertigo hit. So all these teams had varying degrees of success with their injuries. I don't see how this disproves the fact that Habs fans overestimate the effect of injuries on their team relative to the rest of the league.
You cannot be serious. Please tell me you are not. You and others here are forgetting that injuries to players who are much better relative to all other players on that team are much more serious in effect.

Give me a break. One Savard on the very strong Bruins roster last year VS Marky, Gorges, Cammy and Pax on a Habs roster that had absolutely no other comparable players? Including Subby for Marky, yeah, 21 year old Subby...still not even close to a replacement for Marky, strooth.

And Ana had other goalie options, simple as.

Total man games missed are completely completely useless to judge injury impact. Habs have missed massive man games from players that they cannot replace on their roster the last 3 years.

Get with it. Think.

Edit: I will counter my argument with a case that hurts it: Pitts. I have no idea in hell how they did that well last year without Sid and Malkin. Unreal. Coaching? Depth? I've no idea.

I stand by saying that injuries to top 3 players are MUCH worse than injuries to the bottom 9, but Pitts was scary last year.

I think Bylsma is very very good. And I think if Sid plays this year, they are just deadly.


Last edited by bsl: 09-02-2011 at 12:40 PM.
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09-02-2011, 12:37 PM
  #320
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Markov needs more than 55 points to be a "true difference maker" IMO. Wiz last year was a .68 PPG player (overall 51 pts in 75 games). Wiz actually was a .70 PPG player with the Habs. Markov albeit a small sample size was a .43 PPG player.

I just wonder how blinded Habs' fans, including myself, may be to what the d-men who departed brought to the table. Hamrlik also scored points and was a .43 PPG player the same as Markov.

If Markov is only going to score 55 points IMO then others need to step up whether it be Weber, Spacek, Emelin, Gorges or whomever. Markov returning is exciting but the man hasn't been on the ice all that much for game situations in the last two years so I'm concerned how long it's going to take him to get in the flow and shake off the rust.

A lot of this season depends on how Markov goes IMO. I'm just not a fan of discarding Wiz' production while a Hab. He was quite mobile and created space for his teammates. I don't see Markov having that same ability. Markov is a a great passer but the Habs still have Gomez who I can remember last year getting passes only to fumble it into nothing productive.

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09-02-2011, 12:42 PM
  #321
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You cannot be serious. Please tell me you are not. You and others here are forgetting that injuries to players who are much better relative to all other players on that team are much more serious in effect.

Give me a break. One Savard on the very strong Bruins roster last year VS Marky, Gorges and Pax on a Habs roster that had absolutely no other comparable players? Including Subby for Marky, yeah, 21 year old Subby...still not even close to a replacement for Marky, strooth.

And Ana had other goalie options, simple as.

Total man games missed are completely completely useless to ***** injury impact. Habs have missed massive man games from players that they cannot replace on their roster the last 3 years.

Get with it. Think.
First of all, you're such an overly confrontational poster it's hard to take anything you say seriously.

Secondly, trust me, I put a lot more thought into my analysis of the Habs injuries than you have. In fact, if you took a second to read anything I wrote in this thread you'd realize that 1) I said the Habs had injury troubles last year because of the value of the players they lost and they should be commended for overcoming them and 2) my analysis of the Habs injury problems are over a 6 year span, a span in which Habs fans like yourself complain season after season about injuries when the team is relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league.

Regardless of how you feel, the Habs are not any more injured than your average NHL team. That you think other teams being capable of filling their losses because they have great depth is some sort of positive for the Habs baffles me. Yes, Boston was able to make up for the loss of Savard because they drafted two great centers. How does that reflect on the Habs if their conference rivals can compensate for their injuries better than them?


Last edited by Mike8: 09-02-2011 at 01:11 PM.
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09-02-2011, 12:52 PM
  #322
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First of all, you're such an overly confrontational poster it's hard to take anything you say seriously.

Secondly, trust me, I put a lot more thought into my analysis of the Habs injuries than you have. In fact, if you took a second to read anything I wrote in this thread you'd realize that 1) I said the Habs had injury troubles last year because of the value of the players they lost and they should be commended for overcoming them and 2) my analysis of the Habs injury problems are over a 6 year span, a span in which Habs fans like yourself complain season after season about injuries when the team is relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league.

Regardless of how you feel, the Habs are not any more injured than your average NHL team. That you think other teams being capable of filling their losses because they have great depth is some sort of positive for the Habs baffles me. Yes, Boston was able to make up for the loss of Savard because they drafted two great centers. How does that reflect on the Habs if their conference rivals can compensate for their injuries better than them?
For Savard, Boston seemed to expect that he might be out of it and spend some of his cap hit elsewhere to start the season which helps. On the otherhand, Montreal was fortunate enough to land the best possible Markov replacement they could have gotten in Wisniewski.


Last edited by Mike8: 09-02-2011 at 01:11 PM.
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09-02-2011, 01:08 PM
  #323
Bill McNeal
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
For Savard, Boston seemed to expect that he might be out of it and spend some of his cap hit elsewhere to start the season which helps. On the otherhand, Montreal was fortunate enough to land the best possible Markov replacement they could have gotten in Wisniewski.
It's a wash as far as I'm concerned. They acquired Horton in the off-season knowing Savard was unlikely to play many games. Pretty much have the exact same cap hit, so had they had a healthy Savard instead of Horton they probably would have had a better player (though not necessarily get as good a playoff performance as they did out of Horton) and still have been able to add the key pieces at the deadline that they did in Kelly and Peverley.

The downgrade from Savard to Horton is similar enough to the one from Markov to Wisniewski. Any gap between those tradeoffs is made up by the the amount of money saved on Wisniewski over Markov.

Gorges going down obviously complicates things further. When it comes to Pacioretty, we weren't even counting on him to be a productive player going into the season for us, so frankly the fact that we got 37 good games out of him was a bonus. But when it comes to the losses of Savard and Markov, they're pretty similar except for the fact that the Bruins had much better depth at center than the Habs did on D. Even if you were to look at the cap hit losses it doesn't tell the whole story as a healthy Savard was a bargain at 4M whereas Markov was giving us good value for his near 6M cap hit.

Otherwise though, the Bruins were extremely healthy and that played a big part in their Cup win. The randomness of team health always play a large factor. But you have to give them their due. Had the Habs lost Plekanec and everybody else was relatively healthy, I don't think we would have performed nearly as well. On the same note, I don't think the Bruins would have performed as well as the Habs did with similar losses on D.

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09-02-2011, 03:52 PM
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MathMan
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On the same note, I don't think the Bruins would have performed as well as the Habs did with similar losses on D.
Considering how shallow the Bruins' D was, they might have been cooked just by losing Chara and replacing him with a lesser player. Then again, the way Tim Thomas was stopping everything, there might not have been much that could've hurt them.


Last edited by MathMan: 09-02-2011 at 04:00 PM.
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09-02-2011, 04:05 PM
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Bill McNeal
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Considering how shallow the Bruins' D was, they might have been cooked just by losing Chara and replacing him with a lesser player. Then again, the way Tim Thomas was stopping everything, there might not have been much that could've hurt them.
Do you have any insight into how the Bruins' D performed in 2009-10? Just taking a glance at the shot differentials and they seem noticeably better. They also outshot their opponents a lot more two seasons ago, for whatever that's worth.

The obvious big difference between the two years is that Wideman was replaced by Seidenberg. The former is much-maligned by Bruins fans while the latter has received high praise, but that's common in any fan base when it comes to new and former players.

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