Because shooting percentage is very luck-driven, and over time returns to career average; big variations up or down are invariably transient "hot" or "cold" streaks and aren't reflective of true, longtime ability. In other words, a guy who scores on 25% of his shots when his career average is 12.5% is getting lucky, and won't be able to keep that up.
Also, 14% is a shade high as a career shooting percentage, though it's not beyond the pale. The vast majority of NHL scorers shoot in the 11-14% range. I don't think Leino is an exceptional shooter, and I expect him to regress a bit to the 12% range.
I think getting fewer shots due to tougher opposition is going to hurt his goal-scoring more, though. More PP time might help make up for it.
Originally Posted by gib
Claude Lemiux says hi, although I am not comparing Ville to him.
Lemieux's clutchness came up on a HabsEyesOnThePrize, and a really good point was made by Roke (who also posts here):
The poster boy for hockey "playoff performers" didn't really elevate his production overall in the playoffs. He just did things that struck people's imaginations and, like any NHL scorer, had some good and bad streaks; the good streaks stayed in people's minds. That, and people think Lemieux was a grinder because of his reputation an agitator, and don't really realize he was a 9-time 25-goal scorer, with no less than 5 30-plus goal seasons and a career high of 41. Lemieux was a scorer who scored in the regular season as much as he did in the playoffs.
Leino isn't soft. He's extremely strong on the puck.
If he does get hitted, he usually loses the puck. His puck handling and dekes are awesome tough. At least that is the idea i have about him. Leino is not a physical player and relies on hands and dekes more that batteling shoulder vs. shoulder.
He is soft. Don't confuse physical strength and going to the corners with being able to avoid your attackers with puck handling and dekes.
he never struck me as a physically intimidating player, he hardly ever hits, and he's not a big player at 6'1" 190lbs. slightly below average in size and strength. He's had one solid season offensively. so as a sabres fan I'm not sold on him as a player and I'm certainly not expecting a full return on his contract.
he is strong on his skates, and he has a good skill level that compliments other skilled players. he works hard, he shows up every night, and he cares. are there better players making less? yes there are. do they have shorter terms to their deals? they sure do. will leino score 50 points next season? nope. and I don't care, I just want him ready for the playoffs and able to contribute more than zero goals in 30 playoff games.