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Old
09-10-2011, 03:14 PM
  #26
Eskimo44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
I agree but I also think Gagner might fit well with guys like Doan and Whitney. I'va always thought that a guy like Doan is the perfect type of winger for Gagner.
I thnik Smyth is really going to help Gagner. It's an odd example but just before he was traded Cole looked like a real good fit with Gagner. Big wingers is a major plus for Gagner.

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09-10-2011, 03:17 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by newoilburnsclean View Post
LOL really so Turris would of put up 49 points playing with Nilsson and Cogliano at 18 love the Oil fans who cant wait to run Gagner out of town for some one who has been a big dissapointment since his draft billing. Gagner has been at least productive since being drafted producing the second or 3rd best numbers for forwards from the 07 draft Turris was a 2 tier star who is far from being a legit number 1 center he shows flashes of elite skill few and far between with a career high 25 points since being drafted.
Exactly. Turris could be better but there is no proof supporting that he will be.

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09-10-2011, 03:17 PM
  #28
dnicks17
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Originally Posted by newoilburnsclean View Post
I meant goals for per 60 But if you think Turris is a better player than Gagner at this stage of their careers explains why you would never have a front office job and if you think Turris would of put up 49 points as a 18 year old with players Nilsson who is now out of the league since being seperated from playing with Gagner and Cogliano who productions started dropping dramaticly since being seperated from Gagner you have not a clue. Gagner stays consistant no matter who he is pared with. Just because you dont like a player does not make him a dud but the player who you try and overate has been a dud so far. i will bet you Gagner produces way more points this season than Turris
So, you're saying Gagner(0.64) had a higher G/60 than Tavares(0.91) and Turris(1.05)?

Where are you getting your numbers from?


You think Gagner(who gets #1C and #1PP time and plays with Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi/Hemsky) will outscore Turris(who gets 6-9 minutes per game and plays with Bissonette/MacLean/Boedker)?

Bold prediction.

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09-10-2011, 03:19 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
Actually, Tavares(2.02) had a higher P/60 than Gagner(1.91), and Turris(2.30) had a higher P/60 than both of them.

Thanks for coming out though.
So i suppose Turris is better than Tavares too then.lol. The fact that Gagner's number is so close to Tavare's ought to be a positive arrow, IMO.

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09-10-2011, 03:19 PM
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The fact Turris can not make the Phoenix line up as a top 6 FW cracks me up

what annoys me is when people say Turris could be this could be that--here is the thing

for first rounder I have a 5 year rule for fw's five years after their draft year you should know what kind of player they will be

Both Gagner and Turris are quickly hitting the five year bar and Gagner has shown more

Gagner has shown signs when playing with the right line mates that he can be magic

Turris has shown very little--some games he is MIA for the dogs

I don't see the logic in this trade for the oilers--right now for turris if the dogs want to trade him--they are looking at a return like that the oilers got Cogliano

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09-10-2011, 03:22 PM
  #31
dnicks17
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
So i suppose Turris is better than Tavares too then.lol. The fact that Gagner's number is so close to Tavare's ought to be a positive arrow, IMO.
I'm not saying that he is.

The poster brought up G/60 and P/60 to show that Gagner is better than Turris.

I was just pointing out that his "proof" actually shows the opposite.

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09-10-2011, 03:27 PM
  #32
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If I were Phoenix, I'd jump all over this and let Edmonton deal with Turris' contract negotiations.

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09-10-2011, 03:28 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I thnik Smyth is really going to help Gagner. It's an odd example but just before he was traded Cole looked like a real good fit with Gagner. Big wingers is a major plus for Gagner.
I agree that in the short run a guy like Smyth might help Gagner. And again with the claim that big physical wingers would help Gagner. That's why I felt he would mesh well with Doan. But they also need to have a decent scoring touch since I think Gagner will always be a playmaker first and foremost.

The issue with Smyth though is that he is a placeholder, or at least he better be. The Oilers big physical wingers in his future are Hartikainen, Hamilton and perhaps Pitlick. I like all three of these guys but at this point they don't seem to scream out as the right match for Gagner.

Three years ago it might have made sense to think about shaping the team somewhat around Gagenr but that ship has now sailed. In terms of the Oilers forwards he has now been past by Hall, RNH, Eberle, and Paajarvi as focal points going forward. If they resign Hemsky that puts Gagner at best at #6 on the pecking order. Assuming that Hall and RNH mesh. who do you see Gagner matching up well with say three years from now?

I still think that Gagner can have a very productive career. I just don't think he is the right guy for the Oilers going forward given his skill set and the style of game he plays.

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09-10-2011, 03:41 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
I'm not saying that he is.

The poster brought up G/60 and P/60 to show that Gagner is better than Turris.

I was just pointing out that his "proof" actually shows the opposite.
The first part was a joke. But the second part is a valid observation, no?

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09-10-2011, 03:48 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
The first part was a joke. But the second part is a valid observation, no?
Basically when someone says "Gagner has more Points/60 minutes" And that gets refuted. So they then say "I meant to say Goals/60 minutes" and that get's refuted. It means they are talking out of their arse. Personally I think Turris would be amazing on any other team since he would have ice-time. That's his problem, he doesn't get much chance to prove his worth.

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09-10-2011, 03:49 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
The first part was a joke. But the second part is a valid observation, no?
It's valid, I guess, but I think the difference is their development stages.

Tavares has improved from season to season at a great amount, yet Gagner's season to season improvement has been minimal.

Their numbers are close now, but to me, I think the chance of Tavares' numbers improving next season is much greater than Gagner's.

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09-10-2011, 04:50 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
I agree that in the short run a guy like Smyth might help Gagner. And again with the claim that big physical wingers would help Gagner. That's why I felt he would mesh well with Doan. But they also need to have a decent scoring touch since I think Gagner will always be a playmaker first and foremost.

The issue with Smyth though is that he is a placeholder, or at least he better be. The Oilers big physical wingers in his future are Hartikainen, Hamilton and perhaps Pitlick. I like all three of these guys but at this point they don't seem to scream out as the right match for Gagner.

Three years ago it might have made sense to think about shaping the team somewhat around Gagenr but that ship has now sailed. In terms of the Oilers forwards he has now been past by Hall, RNH, Eberle, and Paajarvi as focal points going forward. If they resign Hemsky that puts Gagner at best at #6 on the pecking order. Assuming that Hall and RNH mesh. who do you see Gagner matching up well with say three years from now?

I still think that Gagner can have a very productive career. I just don't think he is the right guy for the Oilers going forward given his skill set and the style of game he plays.
Smyth is old but he's still an excellent player, and Doan isn't much younger. Smyth was a big part of Kopitar's breakthrough in 2009-10, and I don't think it's a stretch to say he might have a couple good years left. I think Hartikainen might be an excellent fit, and Gagner and Hemsky finally got it figured out when put together last year. Gagner is a playmaker first, but he has a good knack around the net too. If he ever reaches his potential he'll pot 25 goals a year. I think he's a somewhat balanced player offensively.

I don't think Gagner has been passed by Paajarvi as an offensive weapon. I think there is a good chance Paajarvi is more of a Jere Lehitenen type, good offense but much more of a 2-way player. I think Gagner would match up fine with all of Hemsky, Smyth, Hartikainen, Hall, and Paajarvi. Hamilton and Pitlick are too far away right now to project as 2nd liners, but i don't think either would be a bad match. Hopkins may get more minutes with Hall and Eberle, but we all know centers tend to be shuffled throughout lines. Worrying about who he'll play with in the future is getting too far ahead, IMO. Fair enough?

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09-10-2011, 05:15 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
It's valid, I guess, but I think the difference is their development stages.

Tavares has improved from season to season at a great amount, yet Gagner's season to season improvement has been minimal.

Their numbers are close now, but to me, I think the chance of Tavares' numbers improving next season is much greater than Gagner's.
I don't understand why a stellar rookie season would hurt the value of subsequent years, despite them being better than the norm still. In saying that, Gagner had a lot of luck in his first season. His counting numbers were higher than his play would indicate. He was posting offence of 85% of the goals he was on for, most players trend hard towards around 70%, as he has since. His underlying numbers have improved, in terms of Quality of competition, and scoring chances. If you take that in consideration with the Oilers posting the worst offense in the league the past couple seasons, i think we can see why Gagner's numbers have stagnated. Put another way, if his % of team offense is improving is Gagner's offense really stagnating? All stats in hockey are heavly affected by teammates, and Gagner's offensive boxcars are no exception. Gagner is 3-4 seasons away from his prime, even if he improves by 4 points a year that's a 65+ point center. Turris would have to improve by 8 points a year to get there. What is the more realistic scenario? Do you think Turris will develop twice as fast for the next 2 years?

I don't disagree Tavares is a better bet to improve, and a better player, but i also don't think it's reasonable to argue Gagner, all of one year and one month older, is much further in his development.

I don't think him stagnating offensively for the past few years is too big a deal, H.Sedin and numerous others have done the same, at a lower rate yet. Nothing changes the fact his best ppg was this year, and that was as a 21 year old. Before he was paired with 2 rookies, he was scoring at a ppg. When given quality teammates he produced, that's no different than Tavares.

Gagner didn't play much with Hall, Eberle as you said he did earlier. Do you think Turris is worse off with Boedker and MacLean, than Gagner with Omark and Paajarvi? Maybe a little but not by much. And even if it is, the difference in counting numbers is still in Gagners favour. I won't say Gagner will be the better player, i just haven't seen anything convincing me he won't. Player development is always a crapshoot.

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09-10-2011, 05:26 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
It's valid, I guess, but I think the difference is their development stages.

Tavares has improved from season to season at a great amount, yet Gagner's season to season improvement has been minimal.

Their numbers are close now, but to me, I think the chance of Tavares' numbers improving next season is much greater than Gagner's.
Oh, and did Tavares improve by that much? The islanders scored 11 more goals, and Tavares had 5 goals and 8 more assists, an improvement, but not leaps and bounds by any means.

What about Turris, is a 5 point improvment from 2008-09 to last year, that much of an improvment? In two years he's got better by 5 points, but Gagner's the one's stagnating? Considering their age i'd say Turris is doing just fine, with Gagner doing a little more than fine.

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09-10-2011, 05:57 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I don't understand why a stellar rookie season would hurt the value of subsequent years, despite them being better than the norm still. In saying that, Gagner had a lot of luck in his first season. His counting numbers were higher than his play would indicate. He was posting offence of 85% of the goals he was on for, most players trend hard towards around 70%, as he has since. His underlying numbers have improved, in terms of Quality of competition, and scoring chances. If you take that in consideration with the Oilers posting the worst offense in the league the past couple seasons, i think we can see why Gagner's numbers have stagnated. Put another way, if his % of team offense is improving is Gagner's offense really stagnating? All stats in hockey are heavly affected by teammates, and Gagner's offensive boxcars are no exception. Gagner is 3-4 seasons away from his prime, even if he improves by 4 points a year that's a 65+ point center. Turris would have to improve by 8 points a year to get there. What is the more realistic scenario? Do you think Turris will develop twice as fast for the next 2 years?
Turris doesn't need to develop twice as fast. He just needs to play twice as much as he has.

Gagner played 5 minutes of ES and 1.5 minutes of PP more than Turris did.

Turris' numbers would be a lot different if he was being given the same opportunity as Gagner.

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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I don't disagree Tavares is a better bet to improve, and a better player, but i also don't think it's reasonable to argue Gagner, all of one year and one month older, is much further in his development.
I think it is.

Development has a lot more to do with NHL games played than it does age, in my opinion.

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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I don't think him stagnating offensively for the past few years is too big a deal, H.Sedin and numerous others have done the same, at a lower rate yet. Nothing changes the fact his best ppg was this year, and that was as a 21 year old. Before he was paired with 2 rookies, he was scoring at a ppg. When given quality teammates he produced, that's no different than Tavares.
Are you sure?

I don't really remember when he started playing with Omark, but he was never at a PPG at any point in the season.

He had 18 points in 27 games when Omark started with us on Dec. 10.

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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Gagner didn't play much with Hall, Eberle as you said he did earlier. Do you think Turris is worse off with Boedker and MacLean, than Gagner with Omark and Paajarvi? Maybe a little but not by much. And even if it is, the difference in counting numbers is still in Gagners favour. I won't say Gagner will be the better player, i just haven't seen anything convincing me he won't. Player development is always a crapshoot.
Turris played with Bissonette and MacLean/Boedker.

I'm sure Gagner's numbers would dip if he was playing with Steve MacIntyre and Omark/Paajarvi.

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09-10-2011, 06:20 PM
  #41
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Smyth is old but he's still an excellent player, and Doan isn't much younger. Smyth was a big part of Kopitar's breakthrough in 2009-10, and I don't think it's a stretch to say he might have a couple good years left. I think Hartikainen might be an excellent fit, and Gagner and Hemsky finally got it figured out when put together last year. Gagner is a playmaker first, but he has a good knack around the net too. If he ever reaches his potential he'll pot 25 goals a year. I think he's a somewhat balanced player offensively.

I don't think Gagner has been passed by Paajarvi as an offensive weapon. I think there is a good chance Paajarvi is more of a Jere Lehitenen type, good offense but much more of a 2-way player. I think Gagner would match up fine with all of Hemsky, Smyth, Hartikainen, Hall, and Paajarvi. Hamilton and Pitlick are too far away right now to project as 2nd liners, but i don't think either would be a bad match. Hopkins may get more minutes with Hall and Eberle, but we all know centers tend to be shuffled throughout lines. Worrying about who he'll play with in the future is getting too far ahead, IMO. Fair enough?
Smyth has been showing his age of late. (I liked the trade though). Doan is not much younger, but has proved quite a bit more durable. That said, I don't think the Coyotes and Oilers are in the same place at all. Edmonton will be looking at 2013-2014 as a reasonable target for being a solid playoff contender. They may make it earlier but will probably not be much of a factor. Phoenix needs to think much more abut the hereand now. Though really I am looking at the deal more from its impact on the Oilers. Phoenix fans can more fairly comment on their end.

Normally I would agree that looking too many years in advance is perhaps inappropriate. But I think this is exactly what the Oilers must do given where they are in their rebuild. I agree that Paajarvi is most likely not going to be primarily an offensive guy. But I think that in terms of where he sits in the grand scheme of things he has passed Gagner in terms of his place on the general pecking order. I also think that he is likely a top six forward but I don't think he matches well with Gagner. Nor do I think Hall and Gagner fit. Both players will make their living off of their speed and from the transition game.

I agree that Hartikainen could fit Gagner's game, but does this mean you move Hartikainen up or Gagner down to a third line role. I am not adverse to using a bigger less skilled guy on the second line but I would not do it just to make Gagner's life easier.

With respect to their forwards I think the key decisions are Hemsky and Gagner. Gagner is very young but at the end of this year he will need a new contract and will only be two years from UFA. If he is still a 'tweener thats not an ideal position from the teams perspective. And as I said if they do sign Hemsky I think that makes Gagner at best the sixth man up front.

I honestly do not see the type of breakout from Gagner that some are hoping for. I do expect he could eventually be a 55-60 point second line center, with significant flaws in his game. I think he can learn to be decent defensively, but I do not understand why he seems to be so weak, given that he is really not that small. I also don't see him as much of a goal scorer. Particularly if his powerplay time is limited, which it will certainly be if RNH takes off. This is why I think that Turris could be a better fit. I think he is much more of a shooter, and I think that is something the Oilers are missing in the middle.

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09-10-2011, 06:40 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
Turris doesn't need to develop twice as fast. He just needs to play twice as much as he has.

Gagner played 5 minutes of ES and 1.5 minutes of PP more than Turris did.

Turris' numbers would be a lot different if he was being given the same opportunity as Gagner.
That's a fair point, but did Turris deserve more minutes? I don't think Gagner has been put in an unreal position to succeed. Phoenix also had a better offense, and Edmonton's PP was terrible and would hurt any offensive players numbers.

Quote:
I think it is.

Development has a lot more to do with NHL games played than it does age, in my opinion.
You realize the central question as to whether or not to send a player down, is whether the player will develop faster there than in the NHL. Nobody knows if a player will develop faster in the NHL, your opinion insinuates they will. I see no reason to believe a player will develop faster in the NHL than AHL/juniors. For this reason, NHL games played is in no way a fairer comparison than age, IMO. Most teams wouldn't have had Gagner playing in the NHL as an 18 or 19 year old. If Gagner had done the same thing the past couple years, while playing his teenage years in junior, you would consider his potential much higher. But if he hasn't accomplished more is that really a fair assesment?

Quote:
Are you sure?

I don't really remember when he started playing with Omark, but he was never at a PPG at any point in the season.

He had 18 points in 27 games when Omark started with us on Dec. 10.
He was for the first 4 games.lol. I forgot to write "almost" a ppg, i apologize, but he did have 24 points and -3 in 33 games at one point(0.73 ppg). You are right though, and it's lower than i remember. Omark was with the team, sent back for 1 game, and with the team for awhile before they were put together. Gagner also played a lot with Jones. I believe his most common linemates were Hemsky, Penner, Paajarvi, Omark, Jones. Other than the 1st two, i don't think any of them are that great. How much ice time Turris got with Bissonet is overstated. In the games i watched, they did give him shifts in the top 6. If a player deserves to be playing, he'll get his icetime.

Please address Turris's lack of improvement.

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09-10-2011, 06:59 PM
  #43
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Hell no. Turris seems like a ********* who thinks he can cry his way onto another team. I'd rather stick with the more proven, successful and respectful kid.

Turris is not the answer for the big #2 center Oiler fans seem to think is absolutely necessary before we compete.

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09-10-2011, 07:12 PM
  #44
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He was for the first 4 games.lol. I forgot to write "almost" a ppg, i apologize, but he did have 24 points and -3 in 33 games at one point(0.73 ppg). You are right though, and it's lower than i remember. Omark was with the team, sent back for 1 game, and with the team for awhile before they were put together. Gagner also played a lot with Jones. I believe his most common linemates were Hemsky, Penner, Paajarvi, Omark, Jones. Other than the 1st two, i don't think any of them are that great. How much ice time Turris got with Bissonet is overstated. In the games i watched, they did give him shifts in the top 6. If a player deserves to be playing, he'll get his icetime.
That's an inaccurate assumption, especially in Tippett's system.


It's tough to address Turris' "lack of improvement".

I think he has been improving, but there's nothing really quantifiable to prove it.

Turris started against weaker competition, so I think his developmental curve should be understandably longer.

I'm not saying Turris is, or projects to be, a far better player. I actually think they're quite similar in upside, but I think Turris' skating, shot and face-off ability will ultimately make him a superior player.

I should also mention that I don't think the gap between Gagner and Turris is that large right now. The only difference is opportunity and confidence, to me.

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09-10-2011, 07:25 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
That's an inaccurate assumption, especially in Tippett's system.


It's tough to address Turris' "lack of improvement".

I think he has been improving, but there's nothing really quantifiable to prove it.

Turris started against weaker competition, so I think his developmental curve should be understandably longer.

I'm not saying Turris is, or projects to be, a far better player. I actually think they're quite similar in upside, but I think Turris' skating, shot and face-off ability will ultimately make him a superior player.

I should also mention that I don't think the gap between Gagner and Turris is that large right now. The only difference is opportunity and confidence, to me.
You think Tippet wouldn't put his best foot forward? No coach gives his team a worse chance to win.

I agree with most of your assesment, but due to what we know right now, Turris is not equal to Gagner in value. And Gagner is being underrated.

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09-10-2011, 08:36 PM
  #46
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Turris is not the answer for the big #2 center Oiler fans seem to think is absolutely necessary before we compete.
I don't want us to lose Turris and believe he's been totally mis-handled by Tippett. That being said, Turris will never be anyone's "big" center. He still looks 14 and an undersized 14 at that. Don't let the height influence what you might think about his size.

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09-10-2011, 08:49 PM
  #47
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I don't want us to lose Turris and believe he's been totally mis-handled by Tippett. That being said, Turris will never be anyone's "big" center. He still looks 14 and an undersized 14 at that. Don't let the height influence what you might think about his size.
I agree, which is why the love for Turris on the Oilers board confuses me. He's not short but that doesn't=strength.

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09-10-2011, 10:32 PM
  #48
Oilmageddon*
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
So, you're saying Gagner(0.64) had a higher G/60 than Tavares(0.91) and Turris(1.05)?

Where are you getting your numbers from?


You think Gagner(who gets #1C and #1PP time and plays with Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi/Hemsky) will outscore Turris(who gets 6-9 minutes per game and plays with Bissonette/MacLean/Boedker)?

Bold prediction.
Hey laughing fool all the laughs go your way if you think Turris is a better player than Gagner at this time http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...24+25+26+27+28 he beat Tavares at 2.79 to 2.63 this is goal production per 60 min 5/5 when their on the ice. so laugh away fool but hey thx for showing up


Last edited by Oilmageddon*: 09-10-2011 at 10:47 PM.
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Old
09-10-2011, 10:34 PM
  #49
zeus3007*
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post

I think it is.

Development has a lot more to do with NHL games played than it does age, in my opinion.
To quote Andy Sutton, "So you're an expert".

Development isn't the same for any two players, and to generalize with such a short sighted, bone headed comment shows that you have absolutely no credibility and your anti-Gagner bias is your only real "evidence" at this point. I don't care how many NHL games Gagner has played, to expect that he is done developing any more than others his age...well, there is no evidence anywhere to support that your theory has any credence.

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Old
09-10-2011, 10:35 PM
  #50
Timbo Slice
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See, I see this proposal and immediately thought, "Wow, Phoenix takes it hard in this trade..." Obviously Gagner has done more in his career than Turris, but I don't think it's as one sided toward Phoenix as everyone is saying.

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