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Old
09-12-2011, 05:54 PM
  #51
Talks to Goalposts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsolument90 View Post
While it's not the defining evaluation method, there is some merit to it. A big part of why we aren't contenders is that our 1-2 centre punch is weak compared to contenders'. Then there's depth (which shouldn't be an issue this season) and faceoffs and you can see why we're struggling offensively.
Faceoffs are largely irrelevant. They are brought up a lot but have very little correlation with winning or doing well at any particular part of the game. So long as your guys are within 5% of average the effect is negligible.

Which makes sense as a faceoff is just one of the many puck battles that will take place during an ordinary shift. Doing particularly well at a special type of puck battle when pretty much all experienced NHL centers are about equally good at it isn`t something that`s going to have a major effect.

The seven player formula stinks because it fails to take into account the complexity of the game. For example you don`t need 2 great defenseman if you have 4 good ones like Vancouver last season, and Boston got away with only having one defenseman that was good for his position in the lineup (after Chara that group stunk but it had Chara so they were fine). Or a league average goaltender is fine if your strong enough elsewhere like Detroit. Its a descriptor that doesn`t describe anything novel and doesn`t really seem to reflect reality beyond good teams have good players which is redundant.

Boston won with Bergeron and Krecji who aren`t significantly better players than Gomez and Plekanec (a bit better but not in a way that makes a significant difference). Overall talent level means more than the importance of a particular position.

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Old
09-12-2011, 06:08 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
I like your post, but I've noticed a lot of guys saying we have offensive depth.

Sorry to be neg and rain on the parade, but I disagree. I'm more worried about O than D. Yet Again.

While I love AK, DD, Eller and Max, all four are huge question marks this year. All four could fail utterly. Except for AK to a degree, they have not proven at all that they can produce 3rd line points over a full 80 games in the NHL. They just have not done this.
Sure, half of our top 9 could do absolutely nothing, and that would hurt us. You know what, apply the same logic for every team. You can come up for reasons to doubt just about every single player in the game. That doesn't make it a fair or reasonable expectation.

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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
DD? I love this kid, but really, let's wait and see. 30 points would be great.
Ya, 30pts would be great. He had 22 of them last year, so really, explain why this would be unreasonable to expect? I don't think people are thinking DD will get 40-50pts. Such expectation would be over the top.

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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Eller? I also love the guy, but I have absolutely no confidence that he will become a money player yet. None. When I think of offense this year I do not even include him. Sorry, harsh, but there it is. He did not score points last year. Yes his D, skating, smarts, and aggression was fantastic, but he just does not finish. At all. Really really low production of points, and I think that's a problem. Yes I know blah blah he did not have the minutes, but what, 7 points? Come on! Love the guy but 30 points from Eller is not depth scoring this year.
So, because he didn't score last year (according to your standards), he will again finish with 17pts (he had 7 goals, not 7 pts. He finished with 17pts)? Will he also play 77games, have only 79shots, be -4 and average 11:08 minutes of ice time?? You don't believe in progression? Or are you saying he will have even less points??
Your saying his D, skating, smarts and aggression were all fantastic, but for some magic reason, he will continue to lack finish? What if he's paired with guys like AK-DD for most of the year instead of scrappers? Would that help?

Again, nobody is expecting Eller to break off with 20G and 50pts, but increasing his production would be great. He will be a 3rd center, if his production can be somewhere in the 30s, then it's already good. Why should you expect less? Because he got 17 in his rookie year??..Makes no sense.

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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Max? I hate to say anything neg. I really do. Max is the Wolverine. But let's see how it goes. I am so pissed at what happened to him last year, and I'm not sure any player just walks away from that. That **** just never every happened to almost any guy in the NHL. I love Max, but 30 points would be my prediction. Or 90, but hey, I'm neg as you can tell.
90 would be an unrealistic and foolish expectation. MaxPac scored 24pts in 37gp last year. I don't know why you feel 6 extra points over a full season is all he'll be able to provide. Expecting so little is expecting the worse for him. He's part of the top 6, he'll be getting top 6 minutes, playing with good players, he's been ready to play since last april as he would have come back versus the Caps had we beaten the Bruins. A reasonable expectation would be for him to crack the 40pt plateau. An amazing year for him would be the 50 plateau.

I'm not expecting an amazing here, just a good one, which should be around 40ish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
AK? No trust at all. I don't know here he is. I love him too, but I could wager 20 points and gone by March, or 50 points. I'll go with 30 points on the third line with him.
20pts? 30pts?? I really don't get why people think so little of AK, it's mind boggling.
You do realize AK has never (that's right, NEVER, in his entire career!) produced at a rate under 40pts/season? You do realize his career average is one of 47pts over 82gp??
So what you're saying is that you expect AK to have his worst career year to date..
Geez, and then you wonder why people peg you as being negative??..Come on dude.
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
What does this mean?
It means you're expecting pretty much the worse out of everybody. Your expecting these four players to regress in terms of production rate, with the exception of Eller that you fill will have a similar year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
The so called 'depth' third line by my thinking may well be looking at 90 points this year. That's about 30 points less than a depth third line should have.
Find me one third line in the NHL that scored 120pts. If you find one, then keep finding others, and then tell me, how reasonable is your evaluation of third line production.
Seems to me like your setting the bar quite high for 3rd liners. Last year, the 60th-90th centers scored between 37-27pts. Only five of them average under 14minutes, none under 13min. For wingers, it varied from 30-16pts.
So if we are to add the 60th center, as well as the 60th Left and Right wingers, you'd get 97-98pts, not even cracking the 100pt mark.

So, explain to me why you expect 120pts out of your third line???
Also, if you expect that, it must mean you view this as a normal expectation right. So, if you only find a couple of teams with that power, what you're saying is that your standards are pretty much at the cream of the crop level..
How is that a reasonable expectation exactly?
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
And Max might play with Gomer. All year. Yes, all year. I could see both of them doing absolutely nothing this year, because Max got ****ed by Chara, and Gomer is just nowhere.
Again, why would they do absolutely nothing?
Gomez just had a career low year, why would you expect the same thing from him? If you look at his stats, you clearly see this past season as an anomaly. Why would that become the norm for him? It is only for people looking at it negatively.

MaxPac got destroyed by Chara sure. That happened last April and he's been practicing for quite some time. His neck is fully healed and he suffered a minor concussion. Will it leave psychological trauma?? Possibly. It might take him a few games to get back in it, weeks, months, etc. But you could also say MAxPac will be fine. As you said, we don't know. So, expecting a slight increase in production due to the fact he will be here for a full season is normal.
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
We could end up with a 110 point second line, when a depth second line should get you 150 points.
Sure. We could also end up with a 150pts second line..

Don't expect the worse, don't expect the best. Go for the middle. 125-130pts would be good for a 2nd line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Conclusion? I could easily see an 70 point deficit from line 2 and 3 this year. Easily. Bottom third of the league in goals. Again.

It's a bit early to say we have O depth. Really early.
It really doesn't matter if we're bottom third in the league. What matters is the goal differential.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Sorry guys. I will wait until 40 games in. You can all torch me now, but I have zero confidence in Habs offence right now.
Fine, you're allowed not to be confident. Doesn't mean you have to expect half of our top 9 to see a regression, as well as Gomez having yet another career low year.

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Old
09-12-2011, 07:14 PM
  #53
DekeLikeYouMeanIt
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Faceoffs are largely irrelevant. They are brought up a lot but have very little correlation with winning or doing well at any particular part of the game. So long as your guys are within 5% of average the effect is negligible.

Which makes sense as a faceoff is just one of the many puck battles that will take place during an ordinary shift. Doing particularly well at a special type of puck battle when pretty much all experienced NHL centers are about equally good at it isn`t something that`s going to have a major effect.

The seven player formula stinks because it fails to take into account the complexity of the game. For example you don`t need 2 great defenseman if you have 4 good ones like Vancouver last season, and Boston got away with only having one defenseman that was good for his position in the lineup (after Chara that group stunk but it had Chara so they were fine). Or a league average goaltender is fine if your strong enough elsewhere like Detroit. Its a descriptor that doesn`t describe anything novel and doesn`t really seem to reflect reality beyond good teams have good players which is redundant.

Boston won with Bergeron and Krecji who aren`t significantly better players than Gomez and Plekanec (a bit better but not in a way that makes a significant difference). Overall talent level means more than the importance of a particular position.
You could not be more wrong about faceoffs. Look at Bergeron vs Habs faceoffs during the playoffs. His faceoff wins dominated every shift because they had control of the puck a lot more. When you need a goal to tie the game or you need to stay afloat to win by 1 goal, you need to be dominant. We created a fortress around Price's crease by the 2nd period. While that worked sometimes, the opponent ended up scoring at some point. When you win faceoffs, you gain possession, rotate the puck and keep it off their sticks.

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Old
09-12-2011, 07:42 PM
  #54
Talks to Goalposts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsolument90 View Post
You could not be more wrong about faceoffs. Look at Bergeron vs Habs faceoffs during the playoffs. His faceoff wins dominated every shift because they had control of the puck a lot more. When you need a goal to tie the game or you need to stay afloat to win by 1 goal, you need to be dominant. We created a fortress around Price's crease by the 2nd period. While that worked sometimes, the opponent ended up scoring at some point. When you win faceoffs, you gain possession, rotate the puck and keep it off their sticks.
Faceoffs matter greatly for the moment that they happen but on aggregate they tend to impact the game very little. If there were lots of guys that can win at 60% or more of the time it could matter but in reality with most centers with 5% of the mean it makes a miniscule amount of difference over the course of a season. A good counter example is from the same series, Krejci was beating Plekanec on faceoffs left and right but Pleks still ate his lunch all series.

Puck possesion matters a lot, but a faceoff is just one type of battle that there isn't a big skill difference in at the NHL level. It quickly fades into the background noise of all the other puck control battles that happen during a game which will also result in possesion for a few seconds just like a faceoffs.

Also, when the score was tied Montreal was beating Boston on possesion. Same when they were behind. Montreal only "forted up around Price" when they had the lead, which is what pretty much every team does when they're up to some degree (Montreal probably plays to the score more than most but almost every team does it).

The fact that overall play was basically completely even between Montreal and Boston despite their better faceoff skills actually goes to show how little effect faceoffs actually have on the game. Not that its not a useful skill but its something that gets drowned out by the dozens of useful puck possession skills there are. It gets massively overrated because its something that's closely tracked and can be quickly refered to rather than how much impact it actual has on a game at the NHL level.

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Old
09-12-2011, 09:08 PM
  #55
Kriss E
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
I like your post, but I've noticed a lot of guys saying we have offensive depth.

Sorry to be neg and rain on the parade, but I disagree. I'm more worried about O than D. Yet Again.

While I love AK, DD, Eller and Max, all four are huge question marks this year. All four could fail utterly. Except for AK to a degree, they have not proven at all that they can produce 3rd line points over a full 80 games in the NHL. They just have not done this.
Sure, half of our top 9 could do absolutely nothing, and that would hurt us. You know what, apply the same logic for every team. You can come up for reasons to doubt just about every single player in the game. That doesn't make it a fair or reasonable expectation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
DD? I love this kid, but really, let's wait and see. 30 points would be great.
Ya, 30pts would be great. He had 22 of them last year, so really, explain why this would be unreasonable to expect? I don't think people are thinking DD will get 40-50pts. Such expectation would be over the top.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Eller? I also love the guy, but I have absolutely no confidence that he will become a money player yet. None. When I think of offense this year I do not even include him. Sorry, harsh, but there it is. He did not score points last year. Yes his D, skating, smarts, and aggression was fantastic, but he just does not finish. At all. Really really low production of points, and I think that's a problem. Yes I know blah blah he did not have the minutes, but what, 7 points? Come on! Love the guy but 30 points from Eller is not depth scoring this year.
So, because he didn't score last year (according to your standards), he will again finish with 17pts (he had 7 goals, not 7 pts. He finished with 17pts)? Will he also play 77games, have only 79shots, be -4 and average 11:08 minutes of ice time?? You don't believe in progression? Or are you saying he will have even less points??
Your saying his D, skating, smarts and aggression were all fantastic, but for some magic reason, he will continue to lack finish? What if he's paired with guys like AK-DD for most of the year instead of scrappers? Would that help?

Again, nobody is expecting Eller to break off with 20G and 50pts, but increasing his production would be great. He will be a 3rd center, if his production can be somewhere in the 30s, then it's already good. Why should you expect less? Because he got 17 in his rookie year??..Makes no sense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Max? I hate to say anything neg. I really do. Max is the Wolverine. But let's see how it goes. I am so pissed at what happened to him last year, and I'm not sure any player just walks away from that. That **** just never every happened to almost any guy in the NHL. I love Max, but 30 points would be my prediction. Or 90, but hey, I'm neg as you can tell.
90 would be an unrealistic and foolish expectation. MaxPac scored 24pts in 37gp last year. I don't know why you feel 6 extra points over a full season is all he'll be able to provide. Expecting so little is expecting the worse for him. He's part of the top 6, he'll be getting top 6 minutes, playing with good players, he's been ready to play since last april as he would have come back versus the Caps had we beaten the Bruins. A reasonable expectation would be for him to crack the 40pt plateau. An amazing year for him would be the 50 plateau.

I'm not expecting an amazing here, just a good one, which should be around 40ish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
AK? No trust at all. I don't know here he is. I love him too, but I could wager 20 points and gone by March, or 50 points. I'll go with 30 points on the third line with him.
20pts? 30pts?? I really don't get why people think so little of AK, it's mind boggling.
You do realize AK has never (that's right, NEVER, in his entire career!) produced at a rate under 40pts/season? You do realize his career average is one of 47pts over 82gp??
So what you're saying is that you expect AK to have his worst career year to date..
Geez, and then you wonder why people peg you as being negative??..Come on dude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
What does this mean?
It means you're expecting pretty much the worse out of everybody. Your expecting these four players to regress in terms of production rate, with the exception of Eller that you fill will have a similar year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
The so called 'depth' third line by my thinking may well be looking at 90 points this year. That's about 30 points less than a depth third line should have.
Find me one third line in the NHL that scored 120pts. If you find one, then keep finding others, and then tell me, how reasonable is your evaluation of third line production.
Seems to me like your setting the bar quite high for 3rd liners. Last year, the 60th-90th centers scored between 37-27pts. Only five of them average under 14minutes, none under 13min. For wingers, it varied from 30-16pts.
So if we are to add the 60th center, as well as the 60th Left and Right wingers, you'd get 97-98pts, not even cracking the 100pt mark.

So, explain to me why you expect 120pts out of your third line???
Also, if you expect that, it must mean you view this as a normal expectation right. So, if you only find a couple of teams with that power, what you're saying is that your standards are pretty much at the cream of the crop level..
How is that a reasonable expectation exactly?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
And Max might play with Gomer. All year. Yes, all year. I could see both of them doing absolutely nothing this year, because Max got ****ed by Chara, and Gomer is just nowhere.
Again, why would they do absolutely nothing?
Gomez just had a career low year, why would you expect the same thing from him? If you look at his stats, you clearly see this past season as an anomaly. Why would that become the norm for him? It is only for people looking at it negatively.

MaxPac got destroyed by Chara sure. That happened last April and he's been practicing for quite some time. His neck is fully healed and he suffered a minor concussion. Will it leave psychological trauma?? Possibly. It might take him a few games to get back in it, weeks, months, etc. But you could also say MAxPac will be fine. As you said, we don't know. So, expecting a slight increase in production due to the fact he will be here for a full season is normal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
We could end up with a 110 point second line, when a depth second line should get you 150 points.
Sure. We could also end up with a 150pts second line..

Don't expect the worse, don't expect the best. Go for the middle. 125-130pts would be good for a 2nd line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Conclusion? I could easily see an 70 point deficit from line 2 and 3 this year. Easily. Bottom third of the league in goals. Again.

It's a bit early to say we have O depth. Really early.
It really doesn't matter if we're bottom third in the league. What matters is the goal differential.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Sorry guys. I will wait until 40 games in. You can all torch me now, but I have zero confidence in Habs offence right now.
Fine, you're allowed not to be confident. Doesn't mean you have to expect half of our top 9 to see a regression, as well as Gomez having yet another career low year.

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Old
09-13-2011, 05:26 PM
  #56
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Goldthorpe View Post
Yes, offensive depth as having more offensive players than "normal", and as opposite to being "top heavy" (like Pittsburg). Which says nothing about which "model" is better.
I think the elite offensive player model with a decent supporting cast is better. Again, look at cup winners. We're not talking one man shows like Rick Nash here... but good strong elite talent surrounded by decent depth. I'd also argue that the superstar type player will elevate his teammates beyond what they're normally capable of doing.

When I think of the clubs that won who were considered 'offensively minded' they always had at least one superstar player (or at least a guy having superstar season) who was leading the way. Cup winning clubs usually had multiple players like that on it.

When they didn't, they had an amazing goalie (Roy, Thomas) or Defense (Devils/Brodeur) to lead the way. The clubs that won with mostly offense though had those kinds of superstars. I'd say it pays to have a couple of high top end players leading the way with average teammates rather than relying on a bunch of guys trying to score 20 goals. Of course, you still need defense and goaltending... it's a question of balance.

At the end of the day though, when your top offensive player had 57 points last season (injuries or not) I have a hard time buying the club's forwards rating an A.

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