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The Moneypuck revolution

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Old
09-24-2011, 06:46 AM
  #1
MsWoof
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The Moneypuck revolution

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178766/

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It's a revolution that has, in many ways, already taken place in North America's other top professional sports.
In baseball, Bill James, Billy Beane and Moneyball – the film version of which was released in theatres this weekend and stars Brad Pitt as Beane – helped bring in-depth statistical analysis out into the open to the point that it's now simply part of doing business for most teams.
Very interesting read. I wish the Flyers would hire this guy.

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09-24-2011, 07:10 AM
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pelts35.com
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In a similar vein, there is a book called Soccernomics that is a very interesting read.

But, with this article I can't say that I am surprised that someone would advise against the contract he flyers gave Bryzgalov.

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09-24-2011, 09:15 AM
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Half this board would have advised against that contract.

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09-24-2011, 09:47 AM
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This is a great article, thanks!

Now you Phantoms fans can have a field day after reading this article about MLEs! What? MLEs? Yes, minor league equivalencies!

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...latingMLEs.htm


Last edited by FlyerX: 09-24-2011 at 10:02 AM.
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09-24-2011, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pelts35.com View Post
In a similar vein, there is a book called Soccernomics that is a very interesting read.

But, with this article I can't say that I am surprised that someone would advise against the contract he flyers gave Bryzgalov.
Yeah, we should have kept playing "moneypuck" with our goalies like we have for the past couple decades.

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09-24-2011, 10:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MsWoof View Post
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178766/



Very interesting read. I wish the Flyers would hire this guy.



So how many championships did Billy Beane win with the A's? or better yet how many World series have the A's participated in under his control. How are they doing now?


So I guess you would enjoy missing the playoffs every year with scrub players?

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09-24-2011, 10:45 AM
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So how many championships did Billy Beane win with the A's? or better yet how many World series have the A's participated in under his control. How are they doing now?


So I guess you would enjoy missing the playoffs every year with scrub players?
How many have the Red Sox won since they incorporated the Moneyball principles?

Part of the As problem is that pretty much EVERYONE has learned this stuff since that book came out, which eroded any competitive advantage they had.

To suggest that the As situation is a detriment to the impact of this stuff, simply displays that you don't know much about baseball.

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09-24-2011, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Codith View Post
So how many championships did Billy Beane win with the A's? or better yet how many World series have the A's participated in under his control. How are they doing now?


So I guess you would enjoy missing the playoffs every year with scrub players?
My goodness we're defensive! I don't know who Billy Beane is, but if you're talking baseball it's apples and oranges. A few teams make the baseball playoffs while the majority of teams make the NHL playoffs.

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09-24-2011, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MsWoof View Post
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178766/



Very interesting read. I wish the Flyers would hire this guy.
I guarantee the dinosaurs in the Flyers organization will be one of the very last to embrace statistical analysis.

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09-24-2011, 11:26 AM
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I guarantee the dinosaurs in the Flyers organization will be one of the very last to embrace statistical analysis.
That was what I was thinking when I read the comments about Bryzgalov. A few years ago teams were willing to give huge contracts to some goaltenders, now that teams stopped doing it, the Flyers start. They're behind the times in pretty much any idea or "new thing" that comes forward.

Here is another one Mirtle wrote, outlines a few teams who use it:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178777/

No shock the Penguins are one of the teams who use it, given that on paper they had a team that had no business making the playoffs. A little more surprised that the Flames are one of the teams who do though.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, aside from the misleading movie trailers that always are shown, the movie Moneyball is supposed to be more about how the A's changed baseball, not that they became a baseball dynasty and made Scott Hatteberg a superstar.

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09-24-2011, 11:32 AM
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"Why haven’t advanced stats caught on in the NHL?"

Hockey stats can be very, very subjective. That's the major problem as I see it and even if you have a firm grip on what you consider an assist, a scoring chance, a hit or a turnover are you going to sit and log every game in every league or rely on independent stats that may not look at some of these largely subjective stats anywhere near the same way you do?

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09-24-2011, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerX View Post
"Why haven’t advanced stats caught on in the NHL?"

Hockey stats can be very, very subjective. That's the major problem as I see it and even if you have a firm grip on what you consider an assist, a scoring chance, a hit or a turnover are you going to sit and log every game in every league or rely on independent stats that may not look at some of these largely subjective stats anywhere near the same way you do?
A lot of the advanced stats have very little subjective about them. Were you on ice for a shot against? Y/N? Were you on ice for a shot for? Y/N?

How you use that information may be subjective, but the stats themselves are not.

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09-24-2011, 12:00 PM
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Interesting criticism of Moneyball, with the way the A's succeeded:
http://www.slate.com/id/2304262/

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09-24-2011, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by JVR21 View Post
Yeah, we should have kept playing "moneypuck" with our goalies like we have for the past couple decades.
Not saying that, but the contract he was given is ridiculous, especially given that Vokoun signed a 1-year deal for 1.5 mill.

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09-24-2011, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pelts35.com View Post
In a similar vein, there is a book called Soccernomics that is a very interesting read.

But, with this article I can't say that I am surprised that someone would advise against the contract he flyers gave Bryzgalov.
Soccernomics was pretty awesome.

Found that book by accident and I've been recommending it to everyone.

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09-24-2011, 12:11 PM
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Moneyball was about exploiting inequities in the system and the only way to find them was to use statistics to analyse them. But you can look for them without using overwhelming stats. For example, everyone began to draft non high school players after it developed that college players were a better bet. However, once orgs began overdrafting college players the relative value of high school players increased. For example high scholers who used to go in the first round were going in the third round. Smart teams adjusted and started taking H.S. players earlier.
So how would I see this in hockey?
Goalies might be one. The Flyers were ahead of the trend of undervaluing goalies - perhaps to a fault... they too undervalued the position and now they may have overvalued, but then again we do not have Ed Snider screaming in our ear.
My choice for undervalued right now are Russian draft picks. I think they are undervalued from a draft position. I do see the Russian Federation supporting their star youngsters coming over here because they need them to become "STARS" for their league to do well. Thus, now would be a good time to invest in Russians.

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09-24-2011, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by MsWoof View Post
My goodness we're defensive! I don't know who Billy Beane is, but if you're talking baseball it's apples and oranges. A few teams make the baseball playoffs while the majority of teams make the NHL playoffs.
While the exact application may not apply to hockey, a similar application was done in the Soccernomics book on a small scale (premier league) and a large scale (world cup, euro cup and general international competitions) and it's downright scary how accurate the use of statistics are. That said I have no doubt that some application can/does work with the NHL.

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09-24-2011, 12:17 PM
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Yeah, stats are pretty telling if you use them right.

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09-24-2011, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
A lot of the advanced stats have very little subjective about them. Were you on ice for a shot against? Y/N? Were you on ice for a shot for? Y/N?

How you use that information may be subjective, but the stats themselves are not.
Hits are objective stats? I've been hearing about how subjective the stat is arena to arena since it's been kept. Turnovers are pretty subjective too. I've seen guys cough the puck up many times and then looking at the boxscore seeing a 0 there. What? Same with takeaways.

Corsi, qualcomp, PDO, zone start . . . . they might have some value, but I need to see it applied. The stat that has always mattered most is PIN . . . pucks in net.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178781/

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09-24-2011, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by mypunkrock View Post
Interesting criticism of Moneyball, with the way the A's succeeded:
http://www.slate.com/id/2304262/
He's not paying nearly enough attention to the "other team" factors. Most especially, Theo Epstein and everything that went on in Boston after the fact.

At the same time, Lewis certainly undersold other aspects... a good player is a good player, and there is no hiding that. The real value of "moneyball" is how you evaluate the periphery, the guys that you plug in around the obviously good players.

More importantly, how do you invest your limited money. The author acknowledges that in the critique, but blows past it a bit too quick.

The reality is that the inequalities in baseball fiscally are terribly hard to overcome. In 2002, the Oakland Athletics spent $40M on their team, the Red Sox spent $108M and the Yankees spent $125M. The situation has only grown worse... meaning the minor advantage you can get by exploiting inefficiencies is easily getting overrun by the spending power of certain clubs.

Even with the TB Rays, sort of the current equivalent, despite super human scouting ability by that organization over the last decade or whatever you want to peg it, they really struggle to overcome the Red Sox and Yankees spending abilities on a yearly basis -- and now they're starting to bleed talent away.

The power of the idea that the As were following isn't really measured in their success, though. It's measured in the copy-cats that have proliferated. Interestingly, the Phillies are one of the teams that hasn't really embraced advanced statistics... one of the reasons that their methods towards success have revolved so heavily through brute force acquisitions and massive expansion in salary.

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09-24-2011, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerX View Post
Hits are objective stats? I've been hearing about how subjective the stat is arena to arena since it's been kept. Turnovers are pretty subjective too. I've seen guys cough the puck up many times and then looking at the boxscore seeing a 0 there. What? Same with takeaways.

Corsi, qualcomp, PDO, zone start . . . . they might have some value, but I need to see it applied. The stat that has always mattered most is PIN . . . pucks in net.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178781/
Hits aren't an advanced statistic... are they? www.behindthenet.ca doesn't even have a hit category, I don't think (same for giveaways and takeaways). Why, because it's a terrible and worthless statistic. Just like a few others that people pay attention to in sports (the RBI, for example).

So, for starters, it might be worth you looking into what exactly these folks (the guy in question, in particular) are actually paying attention to before complaining about how the stats are subjective.

And, yes, there is correlation between these statistics and the PIN statistic. For example, if the other team is getting more SOG than you are, they are quite likely to score more goals than you.

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09-24-2011, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Hits aren't an advanced statistic... are they? www.behindthenet.ca doesn't even have a hit category, I don't think (same for giveaways and takeaways). Why, because it's a terrible and worthless statistic. Just like a few others that people pay attention to in sports (the RBI, for example).

So, for starters, it might be worth you looking into what exactly these folks (the guy in question, in particular) are actually paying attention to before complaining about how the stats are subjective.

And, yes, there is correlation between these statistics and the PIN statistic. For example, if the other team is getting more SOG than you are, they are quite likely to score more goals than you.
Hahaha, you haven't been watching many Flyers games over the years!!!

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09-24-2011, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
He's not paying nearly enough attention to the "other team" factors. Most especially, Theo Epstein and everything that went on in Boston after the fact.

At the same time, Lewis certainly undersold other aspects... a good player is a good player, and there is no hiding that. The real value of "moneyball" is how you evaluate the periphery, the guys that you plug in around the obviously good players.

More importantly, how do you invest your limited money. The author acknowledges that in the critique, but blows past it a bit too quick.

The reality is that the inequalities in baseball fiscally are terribly hard to overcome. In 2002, the Oakland Athletics spent $40M on their team, the Red Sox spent $108M and the Yankees spent $125M. The situation has only grown worse... meaning the minor advantage you can get by exploiting inefficiencies is easily getting overrun by the spending power of certain clubs.

Even with the TB Rays, sort of the current equivalent, despite super human scouting ability by that organization over the last decade or whatever you want to peg it, they really struggle to overcome the Red Sox and Yankees spending abilities on a yearly basis -- and now they're starting to bleed talent away.

The power of the idea that the As were following isn't really measured in their success, though. It's measured in the copy-cats that have proliferated. Interestingly, the Phillies are one of the teams that hasn't really embraced advanced statistics... one of the reasons that their methods towards success have revolved so heavily through brute force acquisitions and massive expansion in salary.
I think part of the problem with the Phillies is that they didn't have to embrace moneyball principles because of who they were drafting in the early part of the decade. Rollins, Hamels, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, etc.

But you are right, their method of filling in the periphery is through rule 5 picks (Victorino, Werth) and throwing money at things (Ibanez, Polanco, Lee, Halladay). It works, but it is not a sound long term solution (look at the current situation in the outfield and the absence of really good infield depth).

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09-24-2011, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerX View Post
Hits are objective stats? I've been hearing about how subjective the stat is arena to arena since it's been kept. Turnovers are pretty subjective too. I've seen guys cough the puck up many times and then looking at the boxscore seeing a 0 there. What? Same with takeaways.

Corsi, qualcomp, PDO, zone start . . . . they might have some value, but I need to see it applied. The stat that has always mattered most is PIN . . . pucks in net.
I'll jump in here briefly - hits are not advanced stats.

And the other four that you reference are not subjective in any way. They're all based on data coming out of games. Whether or not you're on the ice for an offensive or defensive zone faceoff is not subjective. Same goes for Corsi (on the ice for shots for or against), qualcomp (on the ice against certain players) or PDO (on the ice for shooting and save percentages).

Desjardins is simply using the game data compiled by the NHL to create these metrics.

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09-24-2011, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by James Mirtle View Post
I'll jump in here briefly - hits are not advanced stats.

And the other four that you reference are not subjective in any way. They're all based on data coming out of games. Whether or not you're on the ice for an offensive or defensive zone faceoff is not subjective. Same goes for Corsi (on the ice for shots for or against), qualcomp (on the ice against certain players) or PDO (on the ice for shooting and save percentages).

Desjardins is simply using the game data compiled by the NHL to create these metrics.
Thanks for that James, although I would qualify in that your being on the ice for a defensive zone draw has a lot to do with the coach making a subjective decision about how good you are defensively at least relative to your teammates.

So far, I don't see anything that rises beyond the level of a possible tiebreaker in an all-other-things-being-equal personnel decision just yet.

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