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The Moneypuck revolution

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Old
09-24-2011, 12:57 PM
  #26
flountown
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I think it works better in baseball because there are so many more stats, and more singular events in a game that can be analyzed. I saw the movie and it was very good, but I still don't see a real application or magic formula for hockey yet. What stat will become the equivalent of Moneyball's OBP?

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09-24-2011, 01:03 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by James Mirtle View Post
I'll jump in here briefly - hits are not advanced stats.

And the other four that you reference are not subjective in any way. They're all based on data coming out of games. Whether or not you're on the ice for an offensive or defensive zone faceoff is not subjective. Same goes for Corsi (on the ice for shots for or against), qualcomp (on the ice against certain players) or PDO (on the ice for shooting and save percentages).

Desjardins is simply using the game data compiled by the NHL to create these metrics.
Giveaways and takeaways are absolutely subjective... and I don't think he has a category for them, either. Just like he doesn't have a category for scoring chances, I don't think.

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09-24-2011, 01:04 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by flountown View Post
I think it works better in baseball because there are so many more stats, and more singular events in a game that can be analyzed. I saw the movie and it was very good, but I still don't see a real application or magic formula for hockey yet. What stat will become the equivalent of Moneyball's OBP?
CORSI, for example.

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09-24-2011, 01:04 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by FlyerX View Post
Hahaha, you haven't been watching many Flyers games over the years!!!
...yeah.

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09-24-2011, 01:11 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by flountown View Post
I think it works better in baseball because there are so many more stats, and more singular events in a game that can be analyzed. I saw the movie and it was very good, but I still don't see a real application or magic formula for hockey yet. What stat will become the equivalent of Moneyball's OBP?
This minor league equivalency stat looks interesting. Applied to baseball it says that any hitter going from AAA to the bigs is going to have his numbers drop 18%.

I think that would be an interesting number to start at to see what the MLE from the AHL to the NHL is.

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09-24-2011, 01:30 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by FlyerX View Post
This minor league equivalency stat looks interesting. Applied to baseball it says that any hitter going from AAA to the bigs is going to have his numbers drop 18%.

I think that would be an interesting number to start at to see what the MLE from the AHL to the NHL is.
Again though, there really isn't as much fluctuation between leagues that the MLB experiences. It would be harder to determine the MLE for hockey with a smaller sample size. You would have to come up with some type of criteria that would give you enough data to work with. If a player plays a game or two in the NHL without a point, that could skew it all...

There is something out there that correlates age/points in juniors to NHL success, that is a pretty neat statistic.

I last saw it on the Winnipeg Jets SBNation site when comparing their pick to Couturier.

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09-24-2011, 01:38 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by flountown View Post
Again though, there really isn't as much fluctuation between leagues that the MLB experiences. It would be harder to determine the MLE for hockey with a smaller sample size. You would have to come up with some type of criteria that would give you enough data to work with. If a player plays a game or two in the NHL without a point, that could skew it all...

There is something out there that correlates age/points in juniors to NHL success, that is a pretty neat statistic.

I last saw it on the Winnipeg Jets SBNation site when comparing their pick to Couturier.
If they could come up with reliable variables to come up with that stat for juniors they should be able to do it for the NHL. I think the one thing you need to do is factor it all into an average per 60 minutes of ice time though. That's what they've been doing for years with goals against average and with spread sheets it should be cake to track that.

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Old
09-24-2011, 01:43 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flountown View Post
Again though, there really isn't as much fluctuation between leagues that the MLB experiences. It would be harder to determine the MLE for hockey with a smaller sample size. You would have to come up with some type of criteria that would give you enough data to work with. If a player plays a game or two in the NHL without a point, that could skew it all...

There is something out there that correlates age/points in juniors to NHL success, that is a pretty neat statistic.

I last saw it on the Winnipeg Jets SBNation site when comparing their pick to Couturier.
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/...outurier-redux



Here was the one before that, with a similar chart:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/...r-vs-scheifele

Quote:
In case you were wondering, the top left-hand corner is empty because there aren't a whole lot of guys who put up a point-per-game at age 16. But the key takeaway is that as you get closer to that top left-hand corner, you're more likely to become an NHL regular. Mark Scheifele projects to play 100 games between now and age 26 - that's perhaps a 25% chance of becoming a real NHL player. Couturier, on the other hand, is almost off-the-chart, and might have a 75% chance of doing the same.

There are obviously other factors here - Scheifele was on a much weaker team, and we have no way of knowing a player's intangibles - but all things being equal, Couturier was a much better pick at the #7 spot. Time will tell if he's the right choice, but you'd better have a damned good reason to play against the odds.


Last edited by GKJ: 09-24-2011 at 01:49 PM.
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Old
09-24-2011, 01:43 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by flountown View Post
Again though, there really isn't as much fluctuation between leagues that the MLB experiences. It would be harder to determine the MLE for hockey with a smaller sample size. You would have to come up with some type of criteria that would give you enough data to work with. If a player plays a game or two in the NHL without a point, that could skew it all...

There is something out there that correlates age/points in juniors to NHL success, that is a pretty neat statistic.

I last saw it on the Winnipeg Jets SBNation site when comparing their pick to Couturier.
That isn't how anyone with an iota of statistical understanding uses stats.

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09-24-2011, 01:46 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
CORSI, for example.

I understand that it is an advanced statistic, but what I meant is there is no magical one like OBP. Like if you lost Alex Ovechkin, would you be able replace him with someone of the same Corsi number and still be as competitive?

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09-24-2011, 01:48 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by flountown View Post
I understand that it is an advanced statistic, but what I meant is there is no magical one like OBP. Like if you lost Alex Ovechkin, would you be able to equally replace him with someone of the same Corsi number and still be as competitive?
...on what planet can you simply replace player A with player B based purely on OBP?

I don't think you understand how the moneyball OBP argument actually worked... the argument wasn't that you can simply plug-n-play OBP. The argument was that OBP was undervalued by teams, so you could get more bang for your buck by looking at OBP.

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09-24-2011, 01:50 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Well, the guy seems to like Coots . . . at least relative to Scheifele. Maybe we need an Einstein Law of Relativity for Hockey.

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Old
09-24-2011, 01:52 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
...on what planet can you simply replace player A with player B based purely on OBP?

I don't think you understand how the moneyball OBP argument actually worked... the argument wasn't that you can simply plug-n-play OBP. The argument was that OBP was undervalued by teams, so you could get more bang for your buck by looking at OBP.
The argument was that OBP is what matters most in generating runs. This challenged the HR/RBI argument that people initially thought. So yes, they wanted guys who could get on base, which in their analysis was more likely to lead to runs scored, and therefore wins. To them that was the most important stat, not just for value of a player, but for runs scored.

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09-24-2011, 01:55 PM
  #39
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Pretty much everyone preferred Couturier to Scheifele. That pick was pretty surprising, he was considered a mid-first rounder.

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09-24-2011, 02:02 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Pretty much everyone preferred Couturier to Scheifele. That pick was pretty surprising, he was considered a mid-first rounder.
I agree, I just really liked the graph they produced, it's pretty interesting to see.

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09-24-2011, 02:16 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by flountown View Post
The argument was that OBP is what matters most in generating runs. This challenged the HR/RBI argument that people initially thought. So yes, they wanted guys who could get on base, which in their analysis was more likely to lead to runs scored, and therefore wins. To them that was the most important stat, not just for value of a player, but for runs scored.
No, that isn't what they were arguing... and they certainly don't undervalue HR (it was actually OBP v. SLG). Moneyball was about economizing the game. Where can I get the most bang for the buck. They value OBP not because they viewed it as inherently leading to more runs (though, if you're talking about prospects they felt it was a better indicator of long-term success), but because it was CHEAP compared to SLG. Scouts overvalued the SLG of prospects, so you could get a "better" value based off of OBP.

No one in their right mind EVER thought you could replace Barry Bonds (an extreme example) in his prime with someone else with a high OBP and get anywhere near the same production.

And this goes in cycles. In recent years, OBP has become overvalued... so what have teams started to do? Go after defense.

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09-24-2011, 02:44 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
At first glance I thought that was Jeff Carter's shot chart, with the blue being the net, and the other colors representing the glass.

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09-24-2011, 02:59 PM
  #43
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Goalies might be one. The Flyers were ahead of the trend of undervaluing goalies - perhaps to a fault... they too undervalued the position and now they may have overvalued, but then again we do not have Ed Snider screaming in our ear.
My choice for undervalued right now are Russian draft picks. I think they are undervalued from a draft position. I do see the Russian Federation supporting their star youngsters coming over here because they need them to become "STARS" for their league to do well. Thus, now would be a good time to invest in Russians.
The Flyers sort of had the right idea when undervaluing goalies, but they missed the mark by thinking they could just toss anything in net in order to spend as few dollars as possible on the position. Now they have swung to the opposite extreme and paid far more than was necessary. It's very frustrating to watch.

I agree Russians are very undervalued.

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09-24-2011, 03:08 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No, that isn't what they were arguing... and they certainly don't undervalue HR (it was actually OBP v. SLG). Moneyball was about economizing the game. Where can I get the most bang for the buck. They value OBP not because they viewed it as inherently leading to more runs (though, if you're talking about prospects they felt it was a better indicator of long-term success), but because it was CHEAP compared to SLG. Scouts overvalued the SLG of prospects, so you could get a "better" value based off of OBP.

No one in their right mind EVER thought you could replace Barry Bonds (an extreme example) in his prime with someone else with a high OBP and get anywhere near the same production.

And this goes in cycles. In recent years, OBP has become overvalued... so what have teams started to do? Go after defense.
Barry Bonds led the league in OBP in his prime.

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Old
09-24-2011, 03:19 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Wud View Post
Barry Bonds led the league in OBP in his prime.
...I know.

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Old
09-24-2011, 03:19 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
The Flyers sort of had the right idea when undervaluing goalies, but they missed the mark by thinking they could just toss anything in net in order to spend as few dollars as possible on the position. Now they have swung to the opposite extreme and paid far more than was necessary. It's very frustrating to watch.

I agree Russians are very undervalued.
Russians aren't necessarily "undervalued," they're just viewed as risky.

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09-24-2011, 03:35 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
They value OBP not because they viewed it as inherently leading to more runs (though, if you're talking about prospects they felt it was a better indicator of long-term success), but because it was CHEAP compared to SLG. Scouts overvalued the SLG of prospects, so you could get a "better" value based off of OBP.
Side note: from a statistical perspective, OBP does inherently lead to more runs than SLG. If you could pay $10,000 for a point of SLG or $10,000 for a point of OBP, OBP is the better bet. This can be confirmed by plugging the values into a Markov run estimator.

http://www.pankin.com/sabr34.pdf

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09-25-2011, 12:11 AM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Side note: from a statistical perspective, OBP does inherently lead to more runs than SLG. If you could pay $10,000 for a point of SLG or $10,000 for a point of OBP, OBP is the better bet. This can be confirmed by plugging the values into a Markov run estimator.

http://www.pankin.com/sabr34.pdf
Yes, because men on base leads to runs, but this is a larger point than the real priority of "moneyball".

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Old
09-25-2011, 12:42 AM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Yes, because men on base leads to runs, but this is a larger point than the real priority of "moneyball".
I read it as they were looking for players to replace the lost OBP. The value came in when they chose players who were not 'prototypical' or desirable because of age/injury/athleticism who had poor traditional stats but fulfilled the OBP requirement.

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Old
09-25-2011, 01:08 AM
  #50
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Originally Posted by mypunkrock View Post
Interesting criticism of Moneyball, with the way the A's succeeded:
http://www.slate.com/id/2304262/
Nice find...they had a similar piece on NPR...love how people are taking moneyball at face value and applying it to the Flyers situation...

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