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[THE INSTIGATOR] Open letter to Geoff Molson

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09-16-2011, 01:56 PM
  #176
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How much will Subban cost the Habs?

How much will Subban cost the Habs?



This summer has been a tough one for hockey in general, off the ice, with the tragic events that we know. Those events have, rightfully so, overshadowed some important hockey news and one of them is the length of time it took some teams to come to a new contract agreement with some young, RFA defensemen.

In the last week or so, three prominent young defensemen have reached an agreement with their respective team.
  • Zach Bogosian (WIN): $5 million for 2 years, $2.5M Cap Hit
  • Tyler Myers (BUF): $38.5 million for 7 years, $5.5M Cap Hit
  • Luke Schenn (TOR): $18 million for 5 years, $3.6M Cap Hit

One key player remains to be signed at the time of writing this column and Iím talking about Los Angeles stand out defenseman Drew Doughty.

There is one player, or at least his agent, who has been monitoring those signatures with a vast interest and thatís PK Subban, who is scheduled to become a RFA at the end of this coming season. Where exactly does Subban sit amongst the players mentioned above? With whom does he compare best? Letís take a closer look:

Read more: How much will Subban cost the Habs?

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09-16-2011, 02:40 PM
  #177
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Two options imo, either long term like Meyer, 6-7+ years at around 5M, or short term deal for maybe 3 years at 3.5-4M, and than get a 6M+ contract for another 5-6 years at the age 26-27.

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09-16-2011, 04:12 PM
  #178
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This season will go a long way to determining that. He certainly looks like he has tens of millions of dollars in future earnings ahead of him but what exactly he'll be worth and/or looking for a year from know is a huge variable. I could see him earning less than three or double that, signing for one year or seven. Question's wide open right now.

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09-18-2011, 04:11 PM
  #179
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This season will go a long way to determining that. He certainly looks like he has tens of millions of dollars in future earnings ahead of him but what exactly he'll be worth and/or looking for a year from know is a huge variable. I could see him earning less than three or double that, signing for one year or seven. Question's wide open right now.
Absolutely. Looking at the table in the blog showing the others who signed this year, it seems like right now, Subban might be looking at a contract similar to Tyler Myers...

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09-18-2011, 04:19 PM
  #180
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6 Years at 5 Million, do the same for Price, these guys are worth every penny! They might get a Million more in other Cities, but in Montreal, everything is a discount or free on our Island for them.

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09-18-2011, 04:19 PM
  #181
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Seems like the kids get their money coming out of the first contracts these days.....seems crazy, but if they are your best players, then you have to do it......if he has another year like last year, he will get somewhere around 4.25M-5.25M for 4-5 years......if he has a better season than last year, look for Myers kind of money and term...

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09-18-2011, 04:27 PM
  #182
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Seems like the kids get their money coming out of the first contracts these days.....seems crazy, but if they are your best players, then you have to do it......if he has another year like last year, he will get somewhere around 4.25M-5.25M for 4-5 years......if he has a better season than last year, look for Myers kind of money and term...
On the Island the 23 guys that are on the roster, are the Gladiators! They try to pay, but their money is no good, it's our pleasure. They just need to play hard for us & Beat Boston! Yes were that kinda City, everyone knows that, it's no secret. You can pass that on in Nova Scotia, were not a-holes like Toronto. Real living people...

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09-18-2011, 04:35 PM
  #183
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10 million dollars for the next 20 years.

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09-18-2011, 05:10 PM
  #184
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10 million dollars for the next 20 years.
20 mill for the next 10 years

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09-18-2011, 05:27 PM
  #185
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I'm okay with either of those.

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09-18-2011, 05:31 PM
  #186
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If he brings between 40 and 50 points for the next 10 years while playing good D and near 30 minutes a game and bring clutch plays in the playoffs .... give him whatever the **** he wants!

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09-18-2011, 05:31 PM
  #187
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40 mill over 10 years frontloaded first 20 in 2 years!

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09-18-2011, 05:37 PM
  #188
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40 mill over 10 years frontloaded first 20 in 2 years!
I would! Anything for PK!

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09-18-2011, 07:43 PM
  #189
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.....if he has a better season than last year, look for Myers kind of money and term...
That's what I'm thinking. He won't be at the same level as Doughty by next summer.

What will be interesting though will be to see how much Doughty signs for, and if PK's performances this year come close to Doughty's... His agent his likely hoping for an injury-free season and drooling at the recent contracts handed out.

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09-18-2011, 08:42 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
Two options imo, either long term like Meyer, 6-7+ years at around 5M, or short term deal for maybe 3 years at 3.5-4M, and than get a 6M+ contract for another 5-6 years at the age 26-27.
Whatever the option, Subban is one of the more expensive pieces in the Habs' future. But the Habs traditionally sign RFAs to short-term deals, so I'd expect more money than Luke Schenn (if only because he can produce more offensively) would get so even a short-term deal would be worth $4M per year or more. And maybe get $6-7M per when he hits UFA.

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09-18-2011, 09:03 PM
  #191
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Does anyone here expect the league's revenues to not go up again this season?

If there's still a cap next year, probabilities are that the upper limit will be raised again, especially considering the switch from Atlanta to Winnipeg and the better % of TV revenues that started kicking-in for this season.

So whatever happens to Subban, I'm not worried about what he'll get.

I have to say though, despite what most people say about GMs going crazy and signing players to ridiculous deals, it is quite astonishing that GMs have been able to maintain a relatively low value vs the true % on the cap player limit (20%) for upper-tier players. Meaning, the cap has gone up quicker than the actual upper-tier player value on the market, mostly because of long term contracts and comparative salaries, yet most people usually see this has a bad omen for the players they'll have to sign next, yet the reality seems to point to an overall player value on the market that is unable to keep up with the growing upper team limit, which IS caused by long term contracts and a market of $ comparatives rather than cap % comparatives.

In an ever-increasing cap world, comparing salaries is actually a good thing if you're signing your player long term.


5,75 of Markov was 11% of our overall cap in 07-08 when he signed for 4 years. He was 57,2% of the max player cap hit back then.

This year, he represents 8,9% of our overall cap. And only 44,7% of the max player cap hit.

When you consider that the player team cap average on a 23 man roster is 2 795k per player, which is 4,34% of the total cap, then that 2,1% difference in Markov's cap vs the team cap as it is now represents almost half of what an average salary takes on the team.

With the upper limit probably nearing 70 million next year, a 5,5 mil per for Subban for 6-7 years will probably be a great deal for us.

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09-19-2011, 09:09 AM
  #192
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Does anyone here expect the league's revenues to not go up again this season?

If there's still a cap next year, probabilities are that the upper limit will be raised again, especially considering the switch from Atlanta to Winnipeg and the better % of TV revenues that started kicking-in for this season.

So whatever happens to Subban, I'm not worried about what he'll get.

I have to say though, despite what most people say about GMs going crazy and signing players to ridiculous deals, it is quite astonishing that GMs have been able to maintain a relatively low value vs the true % on the cap player limit (20%) for upper-tier players. Meaning, the cap has gone up quicker than the actual upper-tier player value on the market, mostly because of long term contracts and comparative salaries, yet most people usually see this has a bad omen for the players they'll have to sign next, yet the reality seems to point to an overall player value on the market that is unable to keep up with the growing upper team limit, which IS caused by long term contracts and a market of $ comparatives rather than cap % comparatives.

In an ever-increasing cap world, comparing salaries is actually a good thing if you're signing your player long term.


5,75 of Markov was 11% of our overall cap in 07-08 when he signed for 4 years. He was 57,2% of the max player cap hit back then.

This year, he represents 8,9% of our overall cap. And only 44,7% of the max player cap hit.

When you consider that the player team cap average on a 23 man roster is 2 795k per player, which is 4,34% of the total cap, then that 2,1% difference in Markov's cap vs the team cap as it is now represents almost half of what an average salary takes on the team.

With the upper limit probably nearing 70 million next year, a 5,5 mil per for Subban for 6-7 years will probably be a great deal for us.
Excellent points Ozymandias. Don't you agree also that agents do look at what others in similar situations do?

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09-19-2011, 11:02 AM
  #193
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study psychology some more and you will see that the people who put on the show of being the happiest, they are often the saddest.

its why "fat" people are happy go lucky, its how they cope with being teased. its a defence mechanism.

I'm sorry for bringing freud into this.



again, reading comprehension fail. I never said bood commmitted suicide. The 100% made up comments were not about boog, but about how southern twisted my words.

But you basically proved my point.
How is it my reading comprehension fail? I never quoted you for one, for two it was a general statement. I'm just saying it because a lot of people (never said you) are saying they're related, which they aren't and can't conclusively be proven to be. In fact if you read the first paragraph of my comments I was clearly talking to Southern primarily (if anybody else it was general not specific) citing that he took what you said completely out of context. Everything after that was just a general statement on the matter.

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09-19-2011, 11:53 AM
  #194
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Excellent points Ozymandias. Don't you agree also that agents do look at what others in similar situations do?
I think you should re-read my post.

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09-24-2011, 03:15 PM
  #195
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Habs: Junior impact

Habs: Junior impact



When the NHLPA and the NHL finally agreed and signed the last CBA, everyone in the hockey world knew that there would be some major changes in the way teams manage their finances and mostly, their roster. But while some teams had some vision, others still tried to build their team like they did before. The teams with the most success are the ones whose GM understood the importance of drafting and of player development, as the more productive young players are at the entry level contract, the more money they have to pursue higher end UFAís. More and more teams now understand that concept and Pierre Gauthier and the Canadiens are no different.

With the rapid emergence of P.K. Subban, arguably the top defenseman already in Montreal, with Carey Price being named the most valuable player last year, and with the breakthrough of Max Pacioretty, the Habs are benefiting first hand of this phenomena.

I donít recall the last time when I was this excited about a group of young players this early in the season. WaitÖ yes I do...

Read more: Habs: Junior impact

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09-24-2011, 03:28 PM
  #196
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Originally Posted by Habsterix View Post
Habs: Junior impact



When the NHLPA and the NHL finally agreed and signed the last CBA, everyone in the hockey world knew that there would be some major changes in the way teams manage their finances and mostly, their roster. But while some teams had some vision, others still tried to build their team like they did before. The teams with the most success are the ones whose GM understood the importance of drafting and of player development, as the more productive young players are at the entry level contract, the more money they have to pursue higher end UFA’s. More and more teams now understand that concept and Pierre Gauthier and the Canadiens are no different.

With the rapid emergence of P.K. Subban, arguably the top defenseman already in Montreal, with Carey Price being named the most valuable player last year, and with the breakthrough of Max Pacioretty, the Habs are benefiting first hand of this phenomena.

I don’t recall the last time when I was this excited about a group of young players this early in the season. Wait… yes I do...

Read more: Habs: Junior impact
Good blog, and yet you forgot probably the best of our prospects in Leblanc

The new way to dominate in this league is to have strong core of vets with a few rookies playing on their entry level contract, just looki at the hawks or the B's(the two last cup winners). Hawks had Toews kane and many other players on entry-level while the B's had Marchand, Seguin and Krejci.

The habs have this chance now this year with Subban, Eller and Emelin on their entry-level contract, plus having White, Patches, Price and Weber on good price/value rates.

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09-24-2011, 03:32 PM
  #197
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Good blog, and yet you forgot probably the best of our prospects in Leblanc

The new way to dominate in this league is to have strong core of vets with a few rookies playing on their entry level contract, just looki at the hawks or the B's(the two last cup winners). Hawks had Toews kane and many other players on entry-level while the B's had Marchand, Seguin and Krejci.

The habs have this chance now this year with Subban, Eller and Emelin on their entry-level contract, plus having White, Patches, Price and Weber on good price/value rates.
Agreed, except that I purposely didn't include Leblanc for a couple of reasons: He's injured, therefore we can't judge his progress from last year, and I wanted to focus on the junior aged players. As much as Shawinigan is hoping to get him, I have a feeling that he'll be in Hamilton this year.

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09-24-2011, 03:50 PM
  #198
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Agreed, except that I purposely didn't include Leblanc for a couple of reasons: He's injured, therefore we can't judge his progress from last year, and I wanted to focus on the junior aged players. As much as Shawinigan is hoping to get him, I have a feeling that he'll be in Hamilton this year.
But you talked about Yemelin

He surely will play in Hamilton, I'm mad that he won't be able to play in the pre-season... We're missing so many buddies it's not even funny

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09-24-2011, 06:26 PM
  #199
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But you talked about Yemelin

He surely will play in Hamilton, I'm mad that he won't be able to play in the pre-season... We're missing so many buddies it's not even funny
True, I did start with Yemelin simply because he impresses me in camp so far. But it wasn't where I wanted to go with it, as the title attests.

Either way, here's hoping that Leblanc comes back healthy as I was reading this summer that some scouts think he'll become a third line player at best.

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09-24-2011, 06:39 PM
  #200
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Very good blog. Enjoyed the read and pretty much agree. I think a lot of fans overlook just how great this team can be.

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