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The Sean Couturier dilemma

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Old
09-26-2011, 01:18 PM
  #101
Haute Couturier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pantokrator View Post
You make some good points. When I usually think of rushed prospects, I usually think of teams that stink. If he made the Flyers, there shouldn't be any pressure to score, since it wouldn't be his role. So, as long as he got PT and the Flyers did not lose confidence in him, I think he might be alright.

I thought of two more rushed prosects, David Tanabe and Danny Richmond. Living in Raleigh at the time they were drafted, I saw the Canes play them and give up on them in a year or two.

I think that is what worries me the most. I fear the Flyers will play him and then give up on him too quickly.
Yeah, it does seem like it is always the lousy organizations that rush prospects. I think it is because their teams are so lousy the prospects get rushed into roles they can't handle because they have no talent supporting them. I know the Oilers didn't have the proper support for Cogliano and Gagner due to their lack of center depth and their development has been stunted. The Flyers have enough depth they can shelter Couturier and place him in a role where he can succeed.

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Originally Posted by GloryDaze4877 View Post
You didn't mention the guy who may be the best comaprison (skating-wise), Milan Lucic.

Lucic was a below-average skater when he made the Bruin's at age 18. He's obviously a different "type" of player, but the Boston management felt it would serve him better to be with the big club than physically dominating at the junior level for another year. While Lucic is never going to skate like Kessel, after a couple of years with NHL caliber skating coaches and some hard offseason work, it is certainly passable.

Have to go back further, but another guy that made the B's out of camp even though he was an average skater, was Patrice Bergeron. Great hockey IQ and strong D game is what did it for him, and could for Couturier as well?
I didn't realize Lucic was so young when he made it. I think Bergeron is a good comparison. I think Couturier's hockey IQ and D are enough for him to stick.

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09-26-2011, 01:36 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Yeah, it does seem like it is always the lousy organizations that rush prospects. I think it is because their teams are so lousy the prospects get rushed into roles they can't handle because they have no talent supporting them. I know the Oilers didn't have the proper support for Cogliano and Gagner due to their lack of center depth and their development has been stunted. The Flyers have enough depth they can shelter Couturier and place him in a role where he can succeed.


I didn't realize Lucic was so young when he made it. I think Bergeron is a good comparison. I think Couturier's hockey IQ and D are enough for him to stick.
Lucic was 19 when he made it (he played another year of juniors after being drafted)

Bergy was 18, though.

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09-26-2011, 01:38 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Pantokrator View Post
I'm thinking high drafted players. Obviously there were highly drafted players who have failed and did not receive any NHL time, but I don't think they were ever seen as NHL ready. I would venture to guess (and have read in THN) that those 3 Phx players (Turris, Boedker (sp?) and Tikhonov) were all rushed and suffered for it. It seems that at worst, when a player is kept too long in junior or college, the worst thing that can happen is that they can pick up bad habits. But if you rush a player and he doesn't play well, he likely loses playing time and confidence, two things that are vital for a young player. The dangers of rushing a player are far worse than the dangers involved in keeping a player down.

Which is why I think this axiom is an illustration of selection bias more than anything.

The best argument for holding a player back is a bit more slimy: delaying his RFA/UFA status.

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09-26-2011, 01:39 PM
  #104
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If he earns a spot then let him stay.

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09-26-2011, 02:20 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by sobrien View Post
Again, these are things he can accomplish easier with an NHL team, rather than sending him back to the Q to dominate 15, 16, and 17 year olds. With the Flyers, he'll have ++ rinks, ++ equipment, ++ gyms, ++ coaches, ++ trainers, and ++ nutrionists. He could be 215 lbs of muscle by November.
I think you're overrating the ability for these athletes to train during the season. I've never heard of players adding size DURING the season (unless you're a fatty like Byfuglien who can't keep weight off). You act as if he's going to be spending every morning and every offday with Gary Roberts doing crazy exercises and following a nutrionist around.

The offseason is when players transform their bodies. The season is when they maintain it, and recover from the grueling marathan that is a season. Yes they'll spend plenty of time in the gym, but nobody is going to be killing themselves in the weightroom mid-season, because their bodies can't handle that.

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09-26-2011, 02:24 PM
  #106
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I agree completely with DUHockey. If anything I hear of players losing weight during the season. There's just not that much time for recovery after a day of the heavy lifting that is required to actually build a lot of mass. Even if you were to try to lift like that, your legs would be noodles for the next game anyway and it would hurt your game in the long run. You would have to eat like crazy too (which isn't that hard to do, just saying).

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09-26-2011, 02:26 PM
  #107
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I'm excited to hopefully see him on TV some more. It's next to impossible to get an accurate representation of him, in my mind, when I'm watching him on the crappiest webcast ever haha.

I'm basing most of my opinion on having seen him in person at the rookie game. He looked just flat out bad to me tbh; but I do realize that's one game. I'm excited to see him on TV tonight, with a more realistic lineup.

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09-26-2011, 02:31 PM
  #108
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Dont know if anyone posted it, but Couturier was working on the first PP unit today and Matt Read was working on 2nd.

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09-26-2011, 02:42 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I think you're overrating the ability for these athletes to train during the season. I've never heard of players adding size DURING the season (unless you're a fatty like Byfuglien who can't keep weight off). You act as if he's going to be spending every morning and every offday with Gary Roberts doing crazy exercises and following a nutrionist around.

The offseason is when players transform their bodies. The season is when they maintain it, and recover from the grueling marathan that is a season. Yes they'll spend plenty of time in the gym, but nobody is going to be killing themselves in the weightroom mid-season, because their bodies can't handle that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
I agree completely with DUHockey. If anything I hear of players losing weight during the season. There's just not that much time for recovery after a day of the heavy lifting that is required to actually build a lot of mass. Even if you were to try to lift like that, your legs would be noodles for the next game anyway and it would hurt your game in the long run. You would have to eat like crazy too (which isn't that hard to do, just saying).
I think you are right as well. I realize that it's quite a different thing for the NHL players, but if I use my own experience, the season I was 19-20 years for instance (which would be the one Couturier's entering), I weighed in at 90 kg (about 200 pounds I believe, oh and btw, feel free to join the civilized world at any time) when the season started and at the end of it I weighed 85 kg (185 or so pounds) despite spending a fair amount of time in the gym.

Again, of course it is different when you are playing at the level Couturier is, but on the other hand he has to play far more games than I did. In general though, you build up your body in the off season and then you slowly wear it down during the season.

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09-26-2011, 03:24 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mirimon View Post
I think you are right as well. I realize that it's quite a different thing for the NHL players, but if I use my own experience, the season I was 19-20 years for instance (which would be the one Couturier's entering), I weighed in at 90 kg (about 200 pounds I believe, oh and btw, feel free to join the civilized world at any time) when the season started and at the end of it I weighed 85 kg (185 or so pounds) despite spending a fair amount of time in the gym.

Again, of course it is different when you are playing at the level Couturier is, but on the other hand he has to play far more games than I did. In general though, you build up your body in the off season and then you slowly wear it down during the season.
Were you leaner? How much of that loss was muscle do you think?

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09-26-2011, 03:47 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
Were you leaner? How much of that loss was muscle do you think?
It was definitely a fair amount of muscle loss. I was playing in Swedish tier III (or Division I as we call it here for some reason) at the time and as such mostly playing against guys who were fully grown and (fairly often) physically stronger than me. A full hockey season drains you, although, one should perhaps stress again that this obviously is not entirely compatible to what happens at Couturier's level.

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09-26-2011, 04:09 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
Dont know if anyone posted it, but Couturier was working on the first PP unit today and Matt Read was working on 2nd.
I hope Lavi rolls with that first unit tonight. It sounds like it has potential.

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09-26-2011, 07:42 PM
  #113
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So what does everyone make of him so far tonight?

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer but all I see is him getting out muscled all over the place. He clearly has the hockey smarts and puts himself in the right position and makes the right play. He just again, appears terribly physically overmatched.

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09-26-2011, 07:51 PM
  #114
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Yup seeing the same thing. He just doesn't have the weight to defend himself in the corners

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09-26-2011, 08:56 PM
  #115
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I was a proponent of him making this team, but I have to agree. It's amazing because he is one step ahead of the play at times, but just can't seem to do anything with bigger players. He doesn't have the speed to take advantage of his hockey smarts, so he needs the size.

Keep him for 9 games and then send him back. Hopefully he gets some playoff time with the Phantoms at the end of the year.

Surprisingly though, he's shown a lot more to me than Schenn has...

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09-28-2011, 09:58 AM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
See I personally think that is a terrible comparison.

My entire point, and the basis for my belief that Couturier needs more time, is that I think you MUST have 1 of 2 things before you can compete in this league.

1) The physical strength/size to be able to physically handle full grown men

OR

2) The above average skating ability to be able to avoid the full grown men.

Let's look at the players mentioned in this thread:

Hall - has "2"
Seguin - has "2"
Duchene - has "2"
Stamkos - has "2"
Lucic - has "1"

Handzus was mentioned due to his lack of skating ability, but he didn't make the league until he was 21 AND he had developed "1" because he would clearly never have "2".

IMO, you MUST have one of them. Couturier does not have "1" the physical strength to handle NHL players, nor does he have "2" the superior skating ability to be able to avoid them.

The only player mentioned that I feel is an exception is Tavaras. He's not a terribly great skater, and he isn't known as some physical force either.
I mentioned Lucic strictly from the skating standpoint.

Bergeron was probably the better comparison, great hockey IQ, not a very good skater, not particularly big (I think Couturier has about 20 lbs on Bergeron when he was rook).

Personally, I think the two biggest factors are work ethic and compete level, and I don't know enough about Couturier to say whether he has enough of either to stick at 18.



ps Yeah, I didn't realize it, but Lucic turned 19 the summer before he made the team, not 18, but someone already pointed that out.

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09-29-2011, 04:50 AM
  #117
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Contrary to what most on here think I believe he's EARNED the right to be given a 9 game look at the beginning of the season. Yes he's a little light on the puck but he hasn't shown that he's out of place on an ability level nor in a hockey sense level nor in being able to play with NHL players. See how he looks when the games count and then re-evaluate him.

If he's over matched then it will be apparent very early on. If he can play at this level even with his limited frame then THAT will also be apparent very early on. He will hit a wall somewhere around game 50, it happens to ALL rookies but there is no reason he can't WORK through it and be "rested" for a few games when that happenes.

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09-29-2011, 11:26 AM
  #118
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Here's an article from the Daily News.

Quote:
For the Flyers, there is zero risk of giving Couturier a 10-game taste of the big leagues to start the season, the maximum number of games before his contract would count toward the team's 50-contract limit. Couturier has little left to achieve in junior hockey. He has already won a QMJHL President's Cup, pocketed league scoring titles and shattered team records once held by Danny Briere.

Minutes for a developing prospect are a lot easier to come by in October than in March. If Couturier struggles, he can head back to Drummondville knowing what part of his game needs work. If he is so undeniably impressive and earns a starring role, the Flyers can find a way to keep him.

At the very worst, Couturier can practice with the Flyers and head back to Canada with a few extra bucks in his pocket.

"I think the more time Sean spends here, the better it is for him - and the Flyers, in the long run," general manager Paul Holmgren concurred yesterday. "He would get to play a tempo that he wouldn't get if he was to be sent back [to juniors]. To be able to skate with NHL players on a daily basis, work with them in the weight room, all of those things are good for him.

"And seeds can be planted on what he needs to work on."

It's a free trial run. Well, almost. They still need to pay the kid.
Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...#ixzz1ZMLgDG31

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09-29-2011, 11:42 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
So what does everyone make of him so far tonight?

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer but all I see is him getting out muscled all over the place. He clearly has the hockey smarts and puts himself in the right position and makes the right play. He just again, appears terribly physically overmatched.
I remember plain as day talking to a few people around where I live. They were saying how Claude Giroux was such a competitor and great guy, but he just doesn't have the size or strength to make it in the NHL. Sometimes, regardless of the size of the player, if they have the game and the skills, size doesn't matter.

I say give the kid 9 games. If he is a stud, you keep him. If he is not, you send him back. However, I still think another year against kids will do NOTHING for his development. If anything, the 120 points he puts up in Junior will take him a step back. Until he starts learning to play against men, his development is on hold IMO.

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09-29-2011, 11:51 AM
  #120
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I think if he stays on the team its going to wind up being like Sbisa's situation. Where he isn't sent back after the 9 games, but rather sticks around until its so apparent that he's physically over matched Holmgren has to send him down.

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09-29-2011, 12:05 PM
  #121
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In tonight's preview, Bundy mentioned that Lavy noted that Jordan Staal played on the fourth line as an 18 year old. A fourth line of Talbot, Couturier, Nodl could handle more minutes. It is almost like a 3b line rather than a fourth.

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09-29-2011, 12:17 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
In tonight's preview, Bundy mentioned that Lavy noted that Jordan Staal played on the fourth line as an 18 year old. A fourth line of Talbot, Couturier, Nodl could handle more minutes. It is almost like a 3b line rather than a fourth.
Just checked the TOI/gm from Staal's 18 yo season.

Jordan Staal played: 14:56/gm

Here are the forwards that year who played more minutes:

LW: Malkin, Malone, Roberts
C: Crosby
RW: Armstrong, Recchi

From the looks of it, Staal was getting the 3rd line center minutes (assume Malkin was centering the second line).

EDIT: Also if there are 60 minutes in a game where are the center minutes coming from? Figure Giroux gets 19:30 minutes and Briere gets 18:30 minutes. That leaves 22 minutes to split between Schenn and Couturier. Unless someone moves to a wing.

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09-29-2011, 12:36 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I think if he stays on the team its going to wind up being like Sbisa's situation. Where he isn't sent back after the 9 games, but rather sticks around until its so apparent that he's physically over matched Holmgren has to send him down.
Couturier could very well remain on the team, if it is not for cap space reason....the only reaSON HE COULD BE SENT DOWN.

What puzzles me is to see some players I thought would be kept ahead of him are already gone.

That is a very good sign of things to come.

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09-29-2011, 12:45 PM
  #124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Just checked the TOI/gm from Staal's 18 yo season.

Jordan Staal played: 14:56/gm

Here are the forwards that year who played more minutes:

LW: Malkin, Malone, Roberts
C: Crosby
RW: Armstrong, Recchi

From the looks of it, Staal was getting the 3rd line center minutes (assume Malkin was centering the second line).

EDIT: Also if there are 60 minutes in a game where are the center minutes coming from? Figure Giroux gets 19:30 minutes and Briere gets 18:30 minutes. That leaves 22 minutes to split between Schenn and Couturier. Unless someone moves to a wing.
Staal had 4 pp goals, 7 short handed and 18 even strength. His TOI breakdown was 10:42 ES, 1:12 PP and 3:02 SH per game. I do not know if he started the season on the third or fourth, but he did score 29 goals as a rookie, so by the end of the season he was almost certainly on the third.

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09-29-2011, 04:39 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
In tonight's preview, Bundy mentioned that Lavy noted that Jordan Staal played on the fourth line as an 18 year old. A fourth line of Talbot, Couturier, Nodl could handle more minutes. It is almost like a 3b line rather than a fourth.
And we should have a 4th line that can play in any situation this year, because that's what the successful teams are doing. Rinaldo and Sestito (and certainly Shelley) will hold that line back defensively, and maybe offensively.

Canucks, Red Wings, Caps, Penguins, and Bruins have all rolled 4 strong lines the passed few seasons, and we did as well in 2010 before injuries took their toll.

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