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Old
09-30-2011, 09:33 AM
  #51
MathMan
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
Anyone who's watched the preseason games should realize that the material for finishing ahead of the better NHL teams just isn't there.
Anyone who's watched any preseason games should realize how silly it is to use them as yardsticks of team strength.

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09-30-2011, 09:41 AM
  #52
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Jinks back at you TSN!

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09-30-2011, 04:50 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Anyone who's watched any preseason games should realize how silly it is to use them as yardsticks of team strength.
Exactly, 100% agreed.... preseason means nothing.

Remember when Stalberg led the league in goals in preseason for the Leafs??

Remember when Czerkawski did the same for Montreal?

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09-30-2011, 04:58 PM
  #54
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I wouldn't put too much stock into any predictions at least until we hear the news on Markov. If Markov is out long term it's going to be tough to win the disvision let alone the east imo.

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09-30-2011, 08:20 PM
  #55
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Is he? Never, ever got that impression.
Yeah I was reading his twitter alot this summer around july 1st and it was brutal, so many insignificent Leaf tweets it was crazy, like so and so on the leafs just took a dump. It was alll leafs all the time, he's toned it down big time if you read it now thoiugh, not sure if someone had a chat with him

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09-30-2011, 08:49 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
The prevailing narrative is that Montreal is a low-talent team, and that it's surviving largely on system-based airtight defense and extremely good goaltending; not very good, but able to eke out one-goal wins in low-scoring affairs.

The reality is more along the lines that they have a lot of good puck-possession players and a good puck-possession coach, and have really improved their puck-possession game last year, but haven't been able to turn that puck-possession into goals. Yet.
100% agree with this.

So the question then becomes: How the hell do we get those goals? We have enough good shooters and enough guys with good scoring instincts, yet we remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. What I think is missing is simple net presence -- players able and willing to plant themselves near the crease and bang away until a rebound or a deflection goes in. We're a team that moves the puck into their zone very well, but as long as we're held to the perimeters we'll remain offensively crippled. Cole has shown some promise in net-crashing and Patch certainly has the balls to do it -- will it be enough?

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09-30-2011, 08:57 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
100% agree with this.

So the question then becomes: How the hell do we get those goals? We have enough good shooters and enough guys with good scoring instincts, yet we remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. What I think is missing is simple net presence -- players able and willing to plant themselves near the crease and bang away until a rebound or a deflection goes in. We're a team that moves the puck into their zone very well, but as long as we're held to the perimeters we'll remain offensively crippled. Cole has shown some promise in net-crashing and Patch certainly has the balls to do it -- will it be enough?
I don't by the perimeter shot theory. For one, I haven't seen any empirical that shows the Habs were actually shooting from the outside. The scoring chance numbers (which are shot attempts from an area that is definitely not in the perimter) that have been tracked last season show that the Habs were just fine in getting good opportunities. The puck just didn't go in as much as you would expect, and that happens from time to time.

Take a look at Boston's goal-scoring and team shooting percentage over the last 4 seasons. Two seasons ago the Bruins scored 206 goals. They got a huge swing in shooting percentage and added a quality forward in Horton and ended up with 246 goals last season. They've swung back-and-forth between high and low shooting percentages over the past 4 seasons or so.

The Habs had 216 goals last season. Regression of team shooting percentage toward average should give the Habs about another 20 goals next season. Add in a conservative 10 additional marginal goals from Cole and the team should be above-average offensively next season. Assuming the powerplay doesn't suddenly fall apart or the team doesn't collapse in terms of puck-possession. There's enough talent there that I wouldn't expect either to happen.

Winning the East is a stretch in my opinion. It could happen (because randomness plays a big role in hockey) but I believe the Habs are below the top-tier in the East (Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay).

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09-30-2011, 10:07 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Roke View Post
I don't by the perimeter shot theory. For one, I haven't seen any empirical that shows the Habs were actually shooting from the outside. The scoring chance numbers (which are shot attempts from an area that is definitely not in the perimter) that have been tracked last season show that the Habs were just fine in getting good opportunities. The puck just didn't go in as much as you would expect, and that happens from time to time.

Take a look at Boston's goal-scoring and team shooting percentage over the last 4 seasons. Two seasons ago the Bruins scored 206 goals. They got a huge swing in shooting percentage and added a quality forward in Horton and ended up with 246 goals last season. They've swung back-and-forth between high and low shooting percentages over the past 4 seasons or so.

The Habs had 216 goals last season. Regression of team shooting percentage toward average should give the Habs about another 20 goals next season. Add in a conservative 10 additional marginal goals from Cole and the team should be above-average offensively next season. Assuming the powerplay doesn't suddenly fall apart or the team doesn't collapse in terms of puck-possession. There's enough talent there that I wouldn't expect either to happen.

Winning the East is a stretch in my opinion. It could happen (because randomness plays a big role in hockey) but I believe the Habs are below the top-tier in the East (Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay).
Though there is definately some fire power on those 3 teams, I see holes there as well...

Whomever wins the East will have lady luck on their side this year IMO

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09-30-2011, 11:19 PM
  #59
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Whomever wins the East will have lady luck on their side this year IMO
That's always the case; being good definitely improves your odds, but against a field with this much parity it is by no means a guarantee. The best team in the NHL can miss the playoffs a non-trivial amount of time. Heck, Chicago almost did and they were almost certainly a top-5 team.

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10-01-2011, 12:02 AM
  #60
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Jinxed!!!

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Old
10-01-2011, 03:00 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by CJam613 View Post
Montreal will be fighting with Toronto, New Jersey, Carolina and Ottawa for that 8th playoff spot.
not here to bash your team or ne thing we're all fans and support our team but honnestly with that roster the only thing im expecting the sens to battle for is a lottery pick but ill do agree that montreal isnt a lock for playoffs,will need a healthy squad and the same carey price from last year.

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10-01-2011, 07:58 AM
  #62
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I believe that a serious prediction should not have the Habs win the East. I believe that thet question marks are too numerous than the famous year after the cup syndrom. Boston is the logical team to win the division, which means then ahead to win the conference.....though I'm not saying they would.

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10-01-2011, 08:11 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
I believe that a serious prediction should not have the Habs win the East. I believe that thet question marks are too numerous than the famous year after the cup syndrom. Boston is the logical team to win the division, which means then ahead to win the conference.....though I'm not saying they would.
The Bruins would require the same level of goaltending. It would also depend on how well other teams in the East play. We shouldn't base our predictions on last year's model (and this applies as much to the Habs as to the Caps, Flyers, Pens, and Bolts).

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10-01-2011, 08:41 AM
  #64
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Ottawa will surprise this year. Their roster is stronger than most people think and they shouldn't have even been a lottery team last year. They're definitely a longshot to make the playoffs, but they'll be in the 11th to 8th range in the East.
8th is definitely out of reach for the Sens, 10-13th is my guess.

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10-01-2011, 08:44 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
The Bruins would require the same level of goaltending. It would also depend on how well other teams in the East play. We shouldn't base our predictions on last year's model (and this applies as much to the Habs as to the Caps, Flyers, Pens, and Bolts).
Maybe. Though while still unproven, if Thomas can't do it, their backup is amongst the backups in the league that can help greatly till Thomas comes back stronger or you never know....Rask might take the full-time job. The idea is that they kept the core of their lineup. And if they have a problem, I'd say that the youngsters ready to jump in are amongst the best kids out there. We are not at winning a cup here. Just about at being better than the rest of the East. And look around, the question marks are greater in almost every other team than theirs.

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Old
10-01-2011, 08:52 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
I believe that a serious prediction should not have the Habs win the East. I believe that thet question marks are too numerous than the famous year after the cup syndrom. Boston is the logical team to win the division, which means then ahead to win the conference.....though I'm not saying they would.
I actually disagree. I don't see the B's having a great year.

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10-01-2011, 08:58 AM
  #67
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Habs will finish 9th

@ TSN


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Originally Posted by Mike8 View Post
I actually disagree. I don't see the B's having a great year.
Julien is bound to lose the lockeroom.

Aside that, I'd say they'd have to partied hard this summer for them to take a step back.

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10-01-2011, 09:12 AM
  #68
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Caps will take 1st in east. Habs probably 6-8, maybe even 9th, I hope not. Buins will probably take division but with a wide gap with caps.

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10-01-2011, 09:33 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Habs will finish 9th

@ TSN




Julien is bound to lose the lockeroom.

Aside that, I'd say they'd have to partied hard this summer for them to take a step back.
My friend was saying their alcohol bill for the night of partying was hilariously long and expensive, though when your captain buys a 20k bottle of champagne... it adds up quick

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10-01-2011, 09:57 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
I believe that a serious prediction should not have the Habs win the East. I believe that thet question marks are too numerous than the famous year after the cup syndrom. Boston is the logical team to win the division, which means then ahead to win the conference.....though I'm not saying they would.
Boston had an entire 2 wins more than Montreal over 82 games last season.

2 wins.

Then the teams went to game 7 OT before a winner was decided in the first round. (and 3 of those wins overall by the Bruins were in OT)

Doesn't seem like there was that big a difference between the clubs last season.

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10-01-2011, 10:32 AM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
Boston had an entire 2 wins more than Montreal over 82 games last season.

2 wins.

Then the teams went to game 7 OT before a winner was decided in the first round. (and 3 of those wins overall by the Bruins were in OT)

Doesn't seem like there was that big a difference between the clubs last season.
Not sure what the regular wins at anything to do with that....it's the points that counts. Yet, again, just 7 points separated both teams, so not a lot. Thing is, that's the NHL. When we won the conference, Boston finished 8th. There was only 10 points separating the 1st and the 8th. When we won the Cup in 1993, how games have gone in OT again? Yet, we won, all that matters.

Whenever we decide to believe who will win and who won't, there might not be a whole lot of difference. But the difference is there. With a healthy Markov, we would be a different team as unperfect I think it is even with Markov. And in the end, the 10ish games he'll miss + the time it will take to be in game shape....not sure how people can't acknowledge this. But it is on the ice and not on a board than the game is played. I'll use the phrase that some of my HF colleagues love and adore....we will see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike8 View Post
I actually disagree. I don't see the B's having a great year.
Why is that? Cup hangover? Thomas going back to mediocrity? Lack of scoring? Players not buying the Julien's system anymore? Why is that? All those can happen but again, in predictions, I would bet that while there are question marks everywhere, for them, it's less problematic than, what I think, could affect us, the Flyers, and some other teams.


Last edited by Mike8: 10-01-2011 at 10:50 AM. Reason: merge
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Old
10-01-2011, 10:48 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
Why is that? Cup hangover? Thomas going back to mediocrity? Lack of scoring? Players not buying the Julien's system anymore? Why is that? All those can happen but again, in predictions, I would bet that while there are question marks everywhere, for them, it's less problematic than, what I think, could affect us, the Flyers, and some other teams.
I'm a fan of Julien's, and I don't think Thomas is a mediocre goaltender. I also think highly of Bergeron, Krejci, and appreciate the support that players like Peverley provide. However, I don't think the B's have a very strong lineup. Nothing sticks out, beyond Chara, as a real front-line player. The depth up front is nice, but the first-line talent--and I'm not speaking about gamebreakers--is missing. Further, I think the puck moving abilities and the defense as a whole is mediocre. I'm a fan of Chara's and Seidenberg's, but beyond that, it's tough going. It seems to me that there's a lack of dynamic offensive talent and that, in conjunction with the lack of a real solid blueline, leads me to believe the team's not all that great.

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Old
10-01-2011, 12:13 PM
  #73
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Boston won't do as well through simple regression to the mean. Not only was their goaltending historically good, they also had the fourth-best shooting percentage in the league, this after being dead last the year before.

Figure the shooting percentage goes back to average (as it usually does) and the Bruins' goaltending ends up at about the same level or ahead of Montreal's... and the Bruins likely end up in third place in the division. Both Montreal and Buffalo were better puck possession clubs than Boston, and both had better special teams (though Boston spent very little time on either the PK or the PP).

Incidentally, Boston was a very high-event club; they were abovewater in shots, but it's interesting to me that their much-vaunted defense gave up the second most shots in the entire league. That means every decline in goaltending will hurt, unless they change their approach.

Another factor that will matter is whether the Habs can cease being the most-penalized club in the league... a very weird result given their style of play.

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10-01-2011, 12:35 PM
  #74
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Mathman,

I'm on my phone so I can't easily check but if TT's sv% falls to CP's .924 ish, how many more goals is that over the season assuming he starts the same amount and faces the same # of shots.

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10-01-2011, 12:47 PM
  #75
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Mathman,

I'm on my phone so I can't easily check but if TT's sv% falls to CP's .924 ish, how many more goals is that over the season assuming he starts the same amount and faces the same # of shots.
Thomas faced 1811 shots last regular season resulting in 112 goals. With a .924 svp we get 0.076*1811=~138 goals. 138-112=26.

So you could attribute about 26 of Boston's +51 goal differential (almost exactly half) to Thomas being spectacular rather than merely excellent last year.

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