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Old
10-01-2011, 12:48 PM
  #76
MathMan
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I'm on my phone so I can't easily check but if TT's sv% falls to CP's .924 ish, how many more goals is that over the season assuming he starts the same amount and faces the same # of shots.
Tim Thomas faced 1699 shots. Go with a .924 save percentage, and he gives up 129 goals -- 17 more than he did. Go to Price's .923 and it becomes 19 extra goals against.

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10-01-2011, 12:56 PM
  #77
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Tim Thomas faced 1699 shots. Go with a .924 save percentage, and he gives up 129 goals -- 17 more than he did. Go to Price's .923 and it becomes 19 extra goals against.
Where'd you get 1699? NHL.com has 1811. http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8460703

Better comparable is maybe to Thomas's career average of .922 (which is phenomenal, Thomas is legitimately a great goalie) and it comes out to 141 goals instead of 112, or 29 goals (which works out to around 5 expected wins)

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10-01-2011, 01:02 PM
  #78
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Boston won't do as well through simple regression to the mean. Not only was their goaltending historically good, they also had the fourth-best shooting percentage in the league, this after being dead last the year before.

Figure the shooting percentage goes back to average (as it usually does) and the Bruins' goaltending ends up at about the same level or ahead of Montreal's... and the Bruins likely end up in third place in the division. Both Montreal and Buffalo were better puck possession clubs than Boston, and both had better special teams (though Boston spent very little time on either the PK or the PP).

Incidentally, Boston was a very high-event club; they were abovewater in shots, but it's interesting to me that their much-vaunted defense gave up the second most shots in the entire league. That means every decline in goaltending will hurt, unless they change their approach.

Another factor that will matter is whether the Habs can cease being the most-penalized club in the league... a very weird result given their style of play.
Damn -- this is the second time this guy adds some great points, in this case, two I was going to make.

Yes, Boston allowed the second-most shots (Carolina allowed the most, I think, and New Jersey allowed the least. Montreal was middle-of-the pack). Safely assume Thomas/Rask won't duplicate last year's save % and you have a dip for the Bruins in goals allowed. Plus -- let's face it -- the new ruling on head-shots adds a level of caution to Boston's hyper-physical style.

As to the Habs, as Mathman said, one of their nemesis last year was a ton of dumb minor penalties. Many of these were by the younger guys like Subban, who have already shown progress in avoiding these mistakes. Improving that will make a big difference.

Two other problem areas that can be fixed internally with a little work: Faceoffs, obviously. The other area is clearing our zone. We often got caught for interminably long stretches in our own zone, making pretty pass after pretty pass that never quite made it over the blue line. This is precisely where Gorges' skill will help somewhat and Markov's presence will help immensely. Until Markov's return, however, our pure defense remains okay at best. Acceptable for a high-scoring team, dangerous for us.

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10-01-2011, 03:10 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Where'd you get 1699? NHL.com has 1811. http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8460703
Um... From the "saves" column right next to the "shots" column.

That raises the new goals totals to 138 at .924 (26 extra goals) and 139 at 0.923 (27 extra goals).

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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Better comparable is maybe to Thomas's career average of .922 (which is phenomenal, Thomas is legitimately a great goalie) and it comes out to 141 goals instead of 112, or 29 goals (which works out to around 5 expected wins)
And no one needs to be reminded that Montreal finished 2 wins, or 7 points, behind the Bruins -- while their shooting percentage was terrible. If they maintain their puck possession but have their own regression to the mean, which would put them squarely in the top third of the league for offense...

And keep in mind we're still expecting exceptionally good results from the Bruins' goaltending. Mere excellence in goal, instead of outright superhuman performance, would cost the Bruins very dearly, especially because their defense allows tons of shots; if their goaltending was average, which is somewhat possible if not likely...

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10-01-2011, 03:19 PM
  #80
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A few notes:

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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
Two other problem areas that can be fixed internally with a little work: Faceoffs, obviously.
Faceoffs are overrated. While they are not without value, their impact on winning a game is low, largely because the difference between the best and the worst faceoff team in the league is roughly 55-45.

And while the perception may be that Montreal is especially terrible on faceoffs, at 49%, they are in reality below average but hardly catastrophic. Improving to become the best faceoff team in the league, from there, might be worth about 35% of an extra win. It's an advantadge, but not one worth fussing over overmuch.

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The other area is clearing our zone. We often got caught for interminably long stretches in our own zone, making pretty pass after pretty pass that never quite made it over the blue line.
Are you sure this isn't just perception? Montreal had excellent puck possession metrics; it's difficult to see how they could get that while simultaneously remaining trapped in their own zone regularly. It will happen on occasion, but they seem to have spent more time in the O-zone than in the D-zone overall, especially with the score tied.

When they get a lead, their puck possesion dips, but that's the case of every team in the NHL and thus isn't cause for concern.

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Acceptable for a high-scoring team, dangerous for us.
If Montreal's shooting regresses to the mean, they may collect 20 to 30 extra goals from the table that they left there out of sheer bad luck last year. And it seems almost inevitable that it will: their shooting was so bad that the opposing goaltending numbers exceeded Price's own performance. That would put them squarely in the top third of the league for scoring.

It is not a given that Montreal will be low-scoring again, so long as they maintain their puck possession up. They may have scored about as many goals as they did last year, but the way they did it changed fundamentally, and it's an indictment of the general quality of much of the hockey analysis following the Habs that this seems to have gone practically unnoticed.

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10-01-2011, 05:49 PM
  #81
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Ottawa will surprise this year. Their roster is stronger than most people think and they shouldn't have even been a lottery team last year. They're definitely a longshot to make the playoffs, but they'll be in the 11th to 8th range in the East.
Good one. I think the Atlanta Thrashers will win the league this year too

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10-01-2011, 08:20 PM
  #82
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And no one needs to be reminded that Montreal finished 2 wins, or 7 points, behind the Bruins -- while their shooting percentage was terrible. If they maintain their puck possession but have their own regression to the mean, which would put them squarely in the top third of the league for offense...

And keep in mind we're still expecting exceptionally good results from the Bruins' goaltending. Mere excellence in goal, instead of outright superhuman performance, would cost the Bruins very dearly, especially because their defense allows tons of shots; if their goaltending was average, which is somewhat possible if not likely...
Any possibility that Price's goaltending would also need to be more spectacular this year to at least duplicate what we've done last year? With no Markov to start the year, with maybe 2 newcomers in the league, with an aging Gill, with a 2nd year Subban (though that I don't believe myself yet). And when you look at the defensive play of our forwards, while easily overpowered, can we believe that the forwards might compensate for the D's? Can the system be able to put everything together and not ask for some Price's miracles along the way? As far as shots are concerned, well so did Detroit. Not sure how all those dangerous were real scoring chances or did Thomas style made them look as incredible scoring chances.

Again, I don't necessarily entirely disagree. That's what a great season and a Cup is all about. Exceptional performances. Can a team repeat? We will see about the Cup. As far as the regular season is concerned, I don't see too many Eastern teams that much better than the Bruins are. What can be rightly interpret as a most likely regression on the Bruins can be compared to a potential not fulfilled in Buffalo or just a bad overall performance in Washington etc. I believe that the system Boston implements makes up for the lack of natural skills Boston has. The only real question marks is a Thomas repeat. We don't know how ready is Rask if that happens....but my prediction is that they'll surprise by sticking way up with the big boys and that there's also a possibility that some younger players make them better by doing a Marchand out of themselves, like Sauvé or Caron or others. Again, we will see.

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10-01-2011, 09:08 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
Any possibility that Price's goaltending would also need to be more spectacular this year to at least duplicate what we've done last year?
Doubtful. The Habs aren't going to score less than they did last year, and are very likely to score more, which means that the Habs can afford to go on the same number of goals against -- and likely allow for a small bit of regression from Price, which is good because we should expect that. Montreal's goaltending was very good overall, but less spectacular than people think: they were 8th in goaltending at evens, smack dab between Washington and Philly. Price was very good, elite even -- but his wasn't a miraculous season.

This all assumes Markov isn't there, he wasn't last year either, after all. If he's in, I'd argue the team's overall ability would be significantly increased, which makes an improvement in puck possession possible.

I don't view Montreal's D as a liability even without Markov. It remains an above-average unit, with capable first-, second-, and third- pairings. Losing Hamrlik hurts, but getting Gorges back compensates.

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As far as the regular season is concerned, I don't see too many Eastern teams that much better than the Bruins are.
Boston may well be the third-best team in their own division, let alone the conference; they are actually a fairly pedestrian puck possession team at evens, and while it's generally accepted that Tim Thomas won't be able to duplicate his record-setting performance, I don't think it's widely realized how much the Bruins depended on that.

Besides, look at the Bruins on paper. They have exceptional goaltending, certainly, but their forwards are no better than the Habs', and though you seem to dislike the Habs' D, consider Boston's -- it's actually a shallow unit that relies heavily on Chara being the workhorse and allowed the second-most shots in the league. Because it has Chara and is backed by Thomas it's gotten a reputation that it simply does not deserve.

Boston's true talent level lies somewhere between 2009-2010's 91-point performance and this year's. They're in no great danger of missing the playoffs (only 9 teams in the East really are playoff contenders anyway) but they aren't an elite club. I'd say Washington, Pittsburgh and Tampa are all clearly above Boston (especially after the way Tampa manhandled Boston in the playoffs -- if only they could have had decent goaltending!) And I think Buffalo and Montreal are better clubs as well.

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10-01-2011, 09:32 PM
  #84
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I guess anything can happen but the only way is if Price stands on his head all season to the point of winning the vezina and hart.

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10-01-2011, 10:07 PM
  #85
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I guess anything can happen but the only way is if Price stands on his head all season to the point of winning the vezina and hart.
Actually if it does happen it's probably at the other end -- Habs get more lucky than they should with the shooting.

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10-01-2011, 10:53 PM
  #86
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I could see the division but not the conference. Typical jinxing us...As if we need a target on our back! Hahaha


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10-01-2011, 11:13 PM
  #87
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Nothing will be balanced in the hockey world until the habs win the cup. When yourbiggest rival holds the prize and raises the banner its got to be all buisness until we duplicate the feat. The only thing worse would be if the leafs had've won. Anyway we do always seem to compete, the news re: Markov is tough to swallow, still wish we had more grit on this team, but it is what it is.

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10-01-2011, 11:31 PM
  #88
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Maybe it was Bob McKenzie.

TSNBobMcKenzie Bob McKenzie
Why is everyone so down on MTL? I kinda like their chances, especially in playoff hockey. Lost in OT of G7 to Cup champs. 3rd Rd year before
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10-01-2011, 11:53 PM
  #89
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Because it's Montreal, Bob. And the prevailing narrative for Montreal is "too small, too soft, no stars and doesn't really have any talent". When it's thought of at all, really. They haven't done anything flashy lately so your colleagues forget about them.

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10-02-2011, 08:30 AM
  #90
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Because it's Montreal, Bob. And the prevailing narrative for Montreal is "too small, too soft, no stars and doesn't really have any talent". When it's thought of at all, really. They haven't done anything flashy lately so your colleagues forget about them.
I agree with most what you're saying. I don't like using your model as a predictor of future results though. You seem to put us ahead of Boston because you assume Boston will be unable to improve their puck possession. That is a very dangerous assumption imo. Especially when comparing the habs puck possession from 2 years ago to last year, drastic changes with a relatively unchanging roster, assuming Thomas will have to be out of this world again this year for the B's to have success isn't necessarily true. He could have a lower sv% and the B's not suffer at all or even improve, depending no the team in front of him. Not all shots are equal. I don't believe the B's shot differential is worth much value here. I agree with your overall conclusion, which is the habs are good, if not better than the B's, but not necessarily with the why this is true.

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10-02-2011, 08:58 AM
  #91
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Did the Montréal Canadiens pay them to say that since Bell\CTV owns also TSN ?
What a joke! We're far from a top east team. Our defensive squad is too fragile and our guys upfront are way way too small and easy to intimidate.

I'd say we'll barely make teh playoffs, just like last year.

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10-02-2011, 09:15 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Oldies View Post
Did the Montréal Canadiens pay them to say that since Bell\CTV owns also TSN ?
What a joke! We're far from a top east team. Our defensive squad is too fragile and our guys upfront are way way too small and easy to intimidate.

I'd say we'll barely make teh playoffs, just like last year.
We didn't just barely make it last season, for one.

If you can't see the potential this team has then that's on you. I'm not saying they are going to win the east, not saying that at all. But you could see how if the stars lined up properly with continious progression from young players like Pacioretty, Subban, Eller, Desharnais, Yemelin, Diaz, Weber, etc that we could significantly improve on last season. This doesn't even take into consideration the impact the addition of Erik Cole has, which is huge. A wild car is if Markov can make a relatively quick return and stay in the line up. Gomez has been Gomez of old in the pre-season, and while it's only pre-season it's still a good sign from him. If Gomez returns to 65-70pts form and Plekanec puts up his usual 65-70pts that should be a significant improvement on last season no?

I know I'm excited for this year's team, even more so then last year when Subban made his debut. I think Pacioretty is going to be dynamite for us, I also firmly believe Cammalleri is going to have his best year so far as a Hab.

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10-02-2011, 09:16 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Oldies View Post
Did the Montréal Canadiens pay them to say that since Bell\CTV owns also TSN ?
What a joke! We're far from a top east team. Our defensive squad is too fragile and our guys upfront are way way too small and easy to intimidate.

I'd say we'll barely make teh playoffs, just like last year.
That's a little harsh. You've already improved your top 6 with Cole and Pacioretty and end up with a more productive 3rd line with AK. Markov and Subban are top defensemen while Gorges and Gill form one of the best defensive pairs. Add Emelin, an experienced D in Spacek, the potential of Campoli, Weber and Diaz as PMD, and a top goalie in Price and you end up with a team that will be battling for 1st place in their division, barring any major injuries, of course.

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10-02-2011, 09:20 AM
  #94
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Originally Posted by Oldies View Post
Did the Montréal Canadiens pay them to say that since Bell\CTV owns also TSN ?
What a joke! We're far from a top east team. Our defensive squad is too fragile and our guys upfront are way way too small and easy to intimidate.

I'd say we'll barely make teh playoffs, just like last year.
You forgot the or your meds?

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10-02-2011, 10:42 AM
  #95
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I think it's unrealistic to predict us 1st but I also think it's unrealistic to predict us sub-8th too.

That guy who had us 8th had the NYI ahead of us

To me there is no logical reason to have Montreal out of a playoff spot just as well there is no logical reason to have us first. Not saying either won't happen because you never know what could happen in 82 games. Could have half an AHL team playing by holiday season. My personal predictions:

1) Washington - I think Voukon won't allow anything less with this team.
2) Pittsburgh - I think Philly will surprise but Pittsburgh will still do better.
3) Boston - I see them as equal or better than last year. Corvo looks like a good fit too.
4) Philadelphia - Don't see them getting that much worse. By years end I think they'll be on a role and Bryz will be stealing games left and right.
5) Montreal - I think we're probably the best team out of the favored teams if we manage to stay healthy, and I think we will remain healthy enough with our depth to pull it off.
6) Buffalo - I think they'll be 1pt behind us having had a solid campaign as well.
7) Tampa Bay - I think they'll have some rough times but ultimately a strong finish.
8) Toronto - I think they will surprise and knock the rangers off with a game to spare. With some chemistry, a little luck and a key trade Toronto will make the playoffs for the first time in years.
9) Rangers - A combination of injuries, bad bounces, lack of depth etc will lead to a much worse year than expected and being on the outside of the playoffs.
10) New Jersey - Brodeur will play his last season and retire a Devil.
11) Winnipeg - Think at certain times they'll be doing okay but ultimately will fall short by quite a margin.
12) Carolina - Don't see them being a good team this year at all.
13) Florida - See Carolina
14) NYI - They're going to get smoked this year
15) Ottawa - I really do think nothing much will have changed and they'll tank for a lottery pick. Maybe deal Spezza to the leafs give them the extra edge but making Ottawa tank further. I wouldn't put it past Burke and Spezza to me seems like a guy who could be available for the right price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JGRB View Post
We didn't just barely make it last season, for one.

If you can't see the potential this team has then that's on you. I'm not saying they are going to win the east, not saying that at all. But you could see how if the stars lined up properly with continious progression from young players like Pacioretty, Subban, Eller, Desharnais, Yemelin, Diaz, Weber, etc that we could significantly improve on last season. This doesn't even take into consideration the impact the addition of Erik Cole has, which is huge. A wild car is if Markov can make a relatively quick return and stay in the line up. Gomez has been Gomez of old in the pre-season, and while it's only pre-season it's still a good sign from him. If Gomez returns to 65-70pts form and Plekanec puts up his usual 65-70pts that should be a significant improvement on last season no?

I know I'm excited for this year's team, even more so then last year when Subban made his debut. I think Pacioretty is going to be dynamite for us, I also firmly believe Cammalleri is going to have his best year so far as a Hab.
This. Agreed completely. When I didn't get Patches in my pool (or PK for that matter) I was pissed. I think Patches could have a ridiculous year. A year that might put him on the same level as other young stars in this league. That's a very good thing for the team.

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10-02-2011, 10:45 AM
  #96
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I think it's unrealistic to predict us 1st but I also think it's unrealistic to predict us sub-8th too.

That guy who had us 8th had the NYI ahead of us

5) Montreal - I think we're probably the best team out of the favored teams if we manage to stay healthy, and I think we will remain healthy enough with our depth to pull it off.
Given the amount of injuries we've had so far, I think 5 is a little high right now. We honestly don't have a clue when Markov is coming back. The reality is, we are going to have injury issues, we are missing key players already in Markov, Eller, we don't have a 4th line centre. Moen has been out, White is out for who knows how long.

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10-02-2011, 10:54 AM
  #97
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Did the Montréal Canadiens pay them to say that since Bell\CTV owns also TSN ?
What a joke! We're far from a top east team. Our defensive squad is too fragile and our guys upfront are way way too small and easy to intimidate.

I'd say we'll barely make teh playoffs, just like last year.
There is so much wrong with what you wrote.

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10-02-2011, 10:55 AM
  #98
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Given the amount of injuries we've had so far, I think 5 is a little high right now. We honestly don't have a clue when Markov is coming back. The reality is, we are going to have injury issues, we are missing key players already in Markov, Eller, we don't have a 4th line centre. Moen has been out, White is out for who knows how long.
True but Eller isn't supposed to be out for long, we have more depth and a better team this year to begin with, and look how well we did last year without Markov and Gorges. Gorges has looked amazing out there too.

In my personal opinion we have a lot more to look forward to than to be pessimistic about. Sure we have some questions on D but we have the depth to keep mostly veterans on the D anyways even with Markov injured.

I expect we'll have a better season than last. Plus I know Campoli is a question mark currently but if he's okay that adds another veteran presence on the blue line.

We finished 6th last year with a worse team, less depth, less development on our young players. It isn't as far out of the scope of reality as some people might think. We also had guaranteed injuries, this year Gorges might play a full season, Markov might play a full season. Last year those were pipe dreams haha

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10-02-2011, 10:58 AM
  #99
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Given the amount of injuries we've had so far, I think 5 is a little high right now. We honestly don't have a clue when Markov is coming back. The reality is, we are going to have injury issues, we are missing key players already in Markov, Eller, we don't have a 4th line centre. Moen has been out, White is out for who knows how long.
Eller we be in the starting line-up. He is full contact practice.

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10-02-2011, 11:03 AM
  #100
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I agree with most what you're saying. I don't like using your model as a predictor of future results though. You seem to put us ahead of Boston because you assume Boston will be unable to improve their puck possession. That is a very dangerous assumption imo. Especially when comparing the habs puck possession from 2 years ago to last year, drastic changes with a relatively unchanging roster
The key here is that Montreal loaded up on excellent puck possession players in 2009-2010 and yet ended up as a terrible puck possession club. In fact Montreal, before 2010-2011, was a puck possession blackhole; everyone who joined the team saw a massive dip in their puck possession numbers. 2010-2011 was a massive improvement -- but it also was a return to normal metrics for many Habs players, notably Gio-Gomez-Cammy. 2009-2010 looks like a fluke low year more than 2010-2011 looks high.

In contrast Boston have been a somewhat pedestrian puck possession club for several years.

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I don't believe the B's shot differential is worth much value here.
Shot differential is the key to continued excellence. It's what made the Red Wings so good for so long.

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