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Leafs and Oilers in talks

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Old
10-02-2011, 05:28 PM
  #351
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Oh come now that's having fun with numbers. Other than the past two seasons where he suffered the ONLY two major injuries of his career, he only missed an average of 10 or so games a year to injury. I'm not saying anything about value, but the way you put it isn't a very fair representation. The league average sees a player miss 10 games a year. He is injury prone, but he also played the vast majority of his teams games 6 of thee 8 years he's been in the league, and he played those games at an elite level(11th in ppg for RW since the lockout). In 2006 he played over 110 high level games, with the playoffs and world cup being added to his regualr season totals. He won't be injured every year, nor will he be likely to play only "half the time". 4 million isn't that much of the cap, 2.8+ is the average caphit of a player on a max cap team. So a 1st liner, in his prime at 4 mil isn't unreasonable, even if he's likely to miss 10+ games a year.
another spinjob by Eskimo44. wouldn't bother reading this.

he's played an average of 47 games the last 3 years. so we went from missing 30+ to around 10 games? rofl.

it's a gamble to think he'll play without getting injured this year, and it's not worth it to any team at the price tambelini set.

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10-02-2011, 05:31 PM
  #352
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Originally Posted by vezna View Post
another spinjob by Eskimo44. wouldn't bother reading this.

he's played an average of 47 games the last 3 years. so we went from missing 30+ to around 10 games? rofl.

it's a gamble to think he'll play without getting injured this year, and it's not worth it to any team at the price tambelini set.
OTHER THAN the last 2 years, he's averaged about 10 missed games... It's not that hard to understand...

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10-02-2011, 05:44 PM
  #353
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Originally Posted by Smytty 94 View Post
Because if the price was Gunnarson and trading down 20 or so spots, don't you think Burke would be smart enough to pull the trigger? It's not like there's some clause saying Burke wouldn't be allowed to resign Hemsky
Hemsky's trade value is worth a lot more than a #6 dman and draft position - despite being in the last year of his contract.

If the Oilers feel the need to deal Hemsky at the deadline, it will be for a 1st rounder + prospect/player package to a contender.

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10-02-2011, 05:51 PM
  #354
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another spinjob by Eskimo44. wouldn't bother reading this.

he's played an average of 47 games the last 3 years. so we went from missing 30+ to around 10 games? rofl.

it's a gamble to think he'll play without getting injured this year, and it's not worth it to any team at the price tambelini set.
Another lack of comprehension by veznia. I said other than the past two years he averaged only 10 missed games a year, didn't read that did you? I said he was injury prone, didn't read that either i assume. So tell me what did i say that was untrue?

Telling people to ignore what i say is childish, if it's wrong debase it on merit.

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10-02-2011, 06:21 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by Smytty 94 View Post
OTHER THAN the last 2 years, he's averaged about 10 missed games... It's not that hard to understand...
Yeah, just leave out the last two years, 20 and 40....they don't count.

Hasn't played a full season in 6 years.

Has played only one full season in 8 years.

Played 40 some games last year.

Only 20 some the year before.

He's a UFA to be.

Sounds an awful lot like Simon Gagne to me.

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10-02-2011, 06:23 PM
  #356
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Another lack of comprehension by veznia. I said other than the past two years he averaged only 10 missed games a year, didn't read that did you? I said he was injury prone, didn't read that either i assume. So tell me what did i say that was untrue?

Telling people to ignore what i say is childish, if it's wrong debase it on merit.
Just wondering WHY don't the last two years count?

Apparently Hemsky is going to be 100% healthy for the first time in 6 years and is worth your top prospect or top 10 pick.

Anyone thinking he will suddenly have 0 health problems is ignoring his history.

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10-02-2011, 06:25 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by TMLsince95 View Post
Burke has pulled off so many steals, I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled off Gunnar for Hemsky and Brule.
Steals, yeah, but not steals from teams in our situation.

Generally he tends to steal other team's dead weight that they don't want or they feel they have to move.

The Oilers aren't in the position where they have to move Hemsky, so he won't be acquired via 'steal' like some of the other guys you've picked up.

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10-02-2011, 06:31 PM
  #358
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Just wondering WHY don't the last two years count?
because then you'd come up with hemsky's real value

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10-02-2011, 06:36 PM
  #359
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I haven't read the whole thread, but I'm surprised Leafs Nation hasn't just decided they're getting Eberle or whatever ridiculously unrealistic expectations they seem to have around their marginal players.
We deserve a cookie.

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10-02-2011, 06:36 PM
  #360
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Yeah, just leave out the last two years, 20 and 40....they don't count.

Hasn't played a full season in 6 years.

Has played only one full season in 8 years.

Played 40 some games last year.

Only 20 some the year before.

He's a UFA to be.

Sounds an awful lot like Simon Gagne to me.
What does being a UFA, and Gagne have to do with Hemsky and how injury prone he is? He isn't going to suffer a major injury every year, he just happened to suffer two in a row in the early/middle of the season. By the way you see things if he had suffered those injuries in game 81 the past two years then he would be less injury prone. That doesn't make sense. He is injury prone, but he's still more likely to miss the league average in games than he is to miss 40+. The past two years certainly matter, but to act as if the full evaluation of likelihood can be derrived from them despite a sample size 4 times longer is an unfair way to frame the issue.

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10-02-2011, 06:41 PM
  #361
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Originally Posted by kacz View Post
Hemsky's trade value is worth a lot more than a #6 dman and draft position - despite being in the last year of his contract.

If the Oilers feel the need to deal Hemsky at the deadline, it will be for a 1st rounder + prospect/player package to a contender.
You missed the whole point of my post. I'm saying Burke would be crazy not to do it like a couple leaf fans are suggesting... Not that Tambo should

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10-02-2011, 06:43 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
What does being a UFA, and Gagne have to do with Hemsky and how injury prone he is? He isn't going to suffer a major injury every year, he just happened to suffer two in a row in the early/middle of the season. By the way you see things if he had suffered those injuries in game 81 the past two years then he would be less injury prone. That doesn't make sense. He is injury prone, but he's still more likely to miss the league average in games than he is to miss 40+. The past two years certainly matter, but to act as if the full evaluation of likelihood can be derrived from them despite a sample size 4 times longer is an unfair way to frame the issue.
Simon Gagne is the best comparable there is for Hemsky. Gagne is actually healthier, and has had the better career. But they put up similar numbers, and are considered injury prone. Both are also wingers.

Flyer's fans dreamed of a first round pick in return but nobody would offer up anything close for a player with his injury history and in the last year of his contract.

There contracts are also similar.

I dare you to find a winger that puts up about 70 points when healthy, has a history of injuries and is entering the last yea of his contract that's been traded for a top 10 pick. The best comparable out there is Gagne and we all know what he got.

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10-02-2011, 06:45 PM
  #363
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Just wondering WHY don't the last two years count?

Apparently Hemsky is going to be 100% healthy for the first time in 6 years and is worth your top prospect or top 10 pick.

Anyone thinking he will suddenly have 0 health problems is ignoring his history.
Are you just intentionally ignoring what i write or are you just a poor reader? When did i say he will be 100% healthy? When did i say the past 2 don't matter? When did i address what his value is? Please answer these last 3 questions with direct quotes, it should be easly as that's apparently what i said.

I in fact said he is injury prone, but more likely to miss the league average than the majority of the season. This is because the larger sample size i was refrencing(6 yrs) is more relevant than the samller sample size you were refrencing(2 yrs). Also in one of those years he actually played over 110 games(a huge number), and he remained injury free (iirc) in the lockout season while playing in the Czech league. I think 7 pro years are far more relevant than 2.

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10-02-2011, 06:51 PM
  #364
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Simon Gagne is the best comparable there is for Hemsky. Gagne is actually healthier, and has had the better career. But they put up similar numbers, and are considered injury prone. Both are also wingers.

Flyer's fans dreamed of a first round pick in return but nobody would offer up anything close for a player with his injury history and in the last year of his contract.

There contracts are also similar.

I dare you to find a winger that puts up about 70 points when healthy, has a history of injuries and is entering the last yea of his contract that's been traded for a top 10 pick. The best comparable out there is Gagne and we all know what he got.
We are discussing health, not value i have never said anything during this thread what i believe that is. Flyers had to trade Gagne due to cap issues, and Gagne isn't more healthy just because he suffered his major injuries later in the year. This should be easy to understand, for the Oilers to trade Hemsky it has to make sense for the Oilers. They do not care about Gagne, besides the fact it was a much different situation. Again stop putting words in my mouth i never said anything about Hemsky=Top 10 pick. That pisses me off, i don't misquote you i only address what you said, so please don't misquote me.

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10-02-2011, 06:54 PM
  #365
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Are you just intentionally ignoring what i write or are you just a poor reader? When did i say he will be 100% healthy? When did i say the past 2 don't matter? When did i address what his value is? Please answer these last 3 questions with direct quotes, it should be easly as that's apparently what i said.

I in fact said he is injury prone, but more likely to miss the league average than the majority of the season. This is because the larger sample size i was refrencing(6 yrs) is more relevant than the samller sample size you were refrencing(2 yrs). Also in one of those years he actually played over 110 games(a huge number), and he remained injury free (iirc) in the lockout season while playing in the Czech league. I think 7 pro years are far more relevant than 2.
You are not making any sense. You can't ignore years just because they don't suit your argument.

And no he isn't "more likely to miss the league average than the majority of the season" because you don't know.

" This is because the larger sample size i was refrencing(6 yrs)" <-- he hasn't played a full season in any of those.

You CAN'T take out certain years to and try to pretend your statistical analysis has some logic. By doing so your argument is totally flawed.

Why the heck would stats from the Czech league count? You don't think the NHL is a bit more physical?

Worst argument I have ever read on these boards. Completely senseless.

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10-02-2011, 06:56 PM
  #366
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Are you just intentionally ignoring what i write or are you just a poor reader? When did i say he will be 100% healthy? When did i say the past 2 don't matter? When did i address what his value is? Please answer these last 3 questions with direct quotes, it should be easly as that's apparently what i said.

I in fact said he is injury prone, but more likely to miss the league average than the majority of the season. This is because the larger sample size i was refrencing(6 yrs) is more relevant than the samller sample size you were refrencing(2 yrs). Also in one of those years he actually played over 110 games(a huge number), and he remained injury free (iirc) in the lockout season while playing in the Czech league. I think 7 pro years are far more relevant than 2.
Would have a good case, BUT the last 2 seasons would reflect a lot more than what he did 6 years ago.

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10-02-2011, 07:07 PM
  #367
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And on Hemsky's value, this is from Bob Stauffer one of the most conneected men in hockey:

"Despite Hemsky’s injury woes the last couple of years, the minimum the Oilers would likely get for the right winger if they went the trade route would be a “Dustin Penner-like return”, according to one NHL Senior Executive."

Here is the link (the quote is at the end of the article)

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=589350

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10-02-2011, 07:11 PM
  #368
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
And on Hemsky's value, this is from Bob Stauffer one of the most conneected men in hockey:

"Despite Hemsky’s injury woes the last couple of years, the minimum the Oilers would likely get for the right winger if they went the trade route would be a “Dustin Penner-like return”, according to one NHL Senior Executive."

Here is the link (the quote is at the end of the article)

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=589350
Ya the Leafs wouldn't get more than a 2nd round pick for Kaberle said the TSN insiders. I'm sure he will get a great return, just not from a fringe playoff team like the Leafs

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10-02-2011, 07:12 PM
  #369
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
And on Hemsky's value, this is from Bob Stauffer one of the most conneected men in hockey:

"Despite Hemsky’s injury woes the last couple of years, the minimum the Oilers would likely get for the right winger if they went the trade route would be a “Dustin Penner-like return”, according to one NHL Senior Executive."

Here is the link (the quote is at the end of the article)

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=589350
I'll believe it when I see it.

For a team like the Leafs to offer up a 1st ++ for someone with his injury history would be one of the dumbest things ever for a rebuilding team. Why do they need Tim Connolly the second? They certainly aren't dumb enough to give up a top 10 pick for him.

Your reporter dude is dreaming.

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10-02-2011, 07:13 PM
  #370
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richard cloutier a writter on hockeybuzz is saying hemsky re injured his shoulder that he had surgery on and its looking like he's not starting the season. Here's the quotes,

Ales Hemsky - Re-injured shoulder post-surgery; questionable to start the season

The Hemsky injury situation appears to be more serious than first reported. Word after the hit against Minnie was that Hemsky just had a bump and would be okay. Now it's beginning to sound like Hemsky will miss some time because he wasn't ready for contact yet. No matter what the situation is, the injury hurts the Oilers in more ways than one. Can't play Hemsky, likely can't deal him either. Time is ticking down on the last year of his contract, and considering his health issues, I'm not re-signing Hemsky if I'm Steve Tambellini.

Same old hemsky

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10-02-2011, 07:13 PM
  #371
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Would have a good case, BUT the last 2 seasons would reflect a lot more than what he did 6 years ago.
You think the past 2 seasons reflect more than what he did the 7 prior? Because that's my argument, not just what he did 1 season 6 years ago(i never said that). Hockey players suffer major injuries, the timing of his injuries has greatly exaggerated his woes, IMO. I think i offered a very reasonable response as to why i think that is. In fact it's rather rare for a player not to suffer 1 or 2 major injuries in a career. I'm not claiming to be infalliable, he may get hurt and have to retire tommorow, but i don't think one can reasonably conclude that, or even that he will be hurt more than not, from his career history. Fair?

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10-02-2011, 07:18 PM
  #372
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Originally Posted by 93gilmour93 View Post
richard cloutier a writter on hockeybuzz is saying hemsky re injured his shoulder that he had surgery on and its looking like he's not starting the season. Here's the quotes,

Ales Hemsky - Re-injured shoulder post-surgery; questionable to start the season

The Hemsky injury situation appears to be more serious than first reported. Word after the hit against Minnie was that Hemsky just had a bump and would be okay. Now it's beginning to sound like Hemsky will miss some time because he wasn't ready for contact yet. No matter what the situation is, the injury hurts the Oilers in more ways than one. Can't play Hemsky, likely can't deal him either. Time is ticking down on the last year of his contract, and considering his health issues, I'm not re-signing Hemsky if I'm Steve Tambellini.

Same old hemsky
It may be true, but Hockeybuzz isn't a very good source. None of TSN, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal, the Oilers website, or any of the major Oiler blogs are reporting this. I have a hard time thinking Richard Cloutier, who i've read and i think is out to lunch, would be privy to this information more than said sources. Why would the team intentiaonally lie/obfuscate the truth? I find this very unlikely.

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10-02-2011, 07:28 PM
  #373
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
I'll believe it when I see it.

For a team like the Leafs to offer up a 1st ++ for someone with his injury history would be one of the dumbest things ever for a rebuilding team. Why do they need Tim Connolly the second? They certainly aren't dumb enough to give up a top 10 pick for him.

Your reporter dude is dreaming.
What the Hell does the Leafs have to do with this. Who said the Leafs should give up a 1st++, certainly not me. I never argued against anything you said. I give you a legitimate source and it's not good enough. Sheesh. BTW, that comment was from an NHL executive not our "dreaming reporter".

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10-02-2011, 07:30 PM
  #374
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Ya the Leafs wouldn't get more than a 2nd round pick for Kaberle said the TSN insiders. I'm sure he will get a great return, just not from a fringe playoff team like the Leafs
I don't remember that. In fact i don't ever remember any TSN insider saying anything that certain in regards to Kaberle's return. I'm not saying it isn't true, but a quote would be nice(preferably Dreger or MacKenzie).

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10-02-2011, 07:37 PM
  #375
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I don't remember that. In fact i don't ever remember any TSN insider saying anything that certain in regards to Kaberle's return. I'm not saying it isn't true, but a quote would be nice(preferably Dreger or MacKenzie).
Ask and ye shall recieve

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=874517

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