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Could Subban seek a new contract like Myers or Doughty?

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Old
09-15-2011, 06:21 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForeverAlone View Post
I'm seriously starting to think that PK Subban will be to the NHL what Michael Jordan was to the NBA commercially.


Edit: Srsly, how much swag is required to break the law?
That commercial is too sick! Love it...

PK + NIKE + Saukrates = SUCCESS

everything about that commercial is sick!

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Old
09-15-2011, 06:39 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by ForeverAlone View Post
I'm seriously starting to think that PK Subban will be to the NHL what Michael Jordan was to the NBA commercially.


Edit: Srsly, how much swag is required to break the law?

Michael Jordan was the most unstoppable force in the history of his sport, if not in competitive sport in general. His personality isn't even good, it was all about his skill.

That being said in a sport where stars are notoriously hard to market to crossover audiences, Subban is one of the most marketable. If he keeps it up he could easily have crossover commercial success.

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Old
09-15-2011, 06:54 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
Michael Jordan was the most unstoppable force in the history of his sport, if not in competitive sport in general. His personality isn't even good, it was all about his skill.

That being said in a sport where stars are notoriously hard to market to crossover audiences, Subban is one of the most marketable. If he keeps it up he could easily have crossover commercial success.
And then he'll be one of a couple of league-wide poster boys.

Subban's upside is probably like a more physical Markov or higher.

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Old
09-15-2011, 07:21 PM
  #54
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I think the new CBA may play a bigger role in what he can ask.

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Old
09-15-2011, 10:55 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
It's not about what has been earned.
Salaries are almost completely based on what a player has earned in a philosophical sense.

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It's about how much a team is willing to bet on a player outperforming his contract.
No it isn't. Considering there are two sides to every contract, its about the reasonable compensation for both parties for a particular service.

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If the Habs believe that buying out two of Subban's UFA years at 26 and 27 years old is worth a long term deal, it should cost them roughly 5.5m/yr. If not, they will agree on a shorter deal. It's about deciding what's the best move for the team going forward, not merit.
Two things:

First of all, the Habs will not believe that buying out two years of Subban's UFA years is worth a long term deal will most definitely not occur. The precedent has been set, many times before, that the Habs management believes in short-term earned contracts during RFA years, to both keep salary figures down, and give the player incentive to earn his pay day. Ryder, Higgins, Komisarek, O'Byrne, Andrei Kostitsyn, Price, the list goes on and on. This particularly applies to the initial contract after entry-level.

Secondly, "it should roughly cost them 5.5 million per year" is exactly the mentality that is fallacious, in that X player got this, so, Y player should get the same.

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Well, clearly we are talking about Myers. By these numbers, they had similar seasons, PK playing in slighter tougher situations.
But they are not comparable. Buffalo lacks a true elite level defensemen, which enables Myers to push for longer term and higher value because there is no cut off point.

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All this thread is assuming, is that if the Habs want to sign Subban long term, Myers' contract will set the bar for negotiations. If the Habs don't like it, they can offer a shorter deal.
And I am clearly stating that it makes relatively no difference. The bar is set between the Habs and Subban, not another defensemen on another team.

I am clearly stating that this assumption is flawed, if you haven't noticed yet. You can't just repeat it over and over again, and it becomes fact.

Your argument is as follows:

1. X player got $5.5 million dollars on a longer term deal as an RFA.
2. Y player is about to become a RFA next year.
3. X and Y player are the same.
4. Therefore, if Y player wants a long term deal, it will be $5.5 million dollars.

The problem with that argument, while logical, is premise 3 is incorrect.

Quote:
If that were true, teams would force all their RFA's to sign the lowest possible QO. What would be the downside? In reality, there is the potential for holding out, offer sheets, or sometimes going to Europe. The market still has some (not as much as with UFA's, of course) impact.
Like I said above, there is two sides to a contract, the key is determining a figure that is fit for both sides that is due compensation for their level of play.

Quote:
In this specific case, the Myers comp, what we are talking about is a long term contract that buys out UFA years. In this case, the player and agent, and therefore the market, have considerable power.
Why would the market have any power if the player is restricted for upwards of the next 5 years?

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If 22 year old players signed long term deals based on what teams decided they had "earned," you'd see every potential top talent signed to below market value contracts that took them into their thirties.
You have continued with the disconnect of a one sided contract argument, I am not going to repeat what I have said again.

Basically this contract is not indicative of what the Habs will ever sign for two basic reasons:

1) Buffalo's new owner has a tonne of cash flow in the present and is using that to hedge his profits for a later date. What I mean is that he is giving out bonuses, and front loaded contracts now, in order to keep payrolls down in later years. Myers, Leino, Ehrhoff, Sekera are all evidence of this. Buffalo is a low revenue team, by flowing cash into these contracts now, while he has them, they can be very profitable down the line if they are a successful club. These are strictly business moves, not based on traditional merit contracts.

2) Montreal does not have this problem; they have consistent and heavy revenue flow on a yearly basis. They do not need to hedge money to keep costs down in the future. Another example of this is Toronto. These kind of clubs do not rely on this tactic, because it essentially has no bearing on cap hits(which are becoming more inconsequential by each passing season), so they keep contracts short in RFA years because of their upper hand in negotiations, to keep their contracts down in those years. When a player has earned, and proven himself as a strong asset to the club, he is awarded with a longer contract, with a good market term, an example of this is Markov and Plekanec, and Price will probably be the next one. Subban, probably will see a short term contract of 2 or 3 years, similar to what Kostitsyn or Price got on their first non-entry level contracts.

Until you see the different strategies of different revenue capable teams in the league, you cannot differentiate between how contracts are awarded on a player by player basis.

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Old
09-15-2011, 11:08 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by 417 View Post
That commercial is too sick! Love it...

PK + NIKE + Saukrates = SUCCESS

everything about that commercial is sick!
Yeah... wait till Don Chéri gets a sight of that!

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Old
09-15-2011, 11:27 PM
  #57
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I wouldn't hesitate to give him a 10-12 year contract.

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Old
09-15-2011, 11:38 PM
  #58
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Give him a 15 year, $15M contract.

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Old
09-16-2011, 12:06 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
Salaries are almost completely based on what a player has earned in a philosophical sense.
Maybe in your philosophy! In reality, Gordie Howe ain't gonna come back and make the league max because of what he's done, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ain't gonna make $550k because of his lack of NHL accomplishments.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
First of all, the Habs will not believe that buying out two years of Subban's UFA years is worth a long term deal will most definitely not occur. The precedent has been set, many times before, that the Habs management believes in short-term earned contracts during RFA years, to both keep salary figures down, and give the player incentive to earn his pay day. Ryder, Higgins, Komisarek, O'Byrne, Andrei Kostitsyn, Price, the list goes on and on. This particularly applies to the initial contract after entry-level.
Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
Basically this contract is not indicative of what the Habs will ever sign for two basic reasons:

1) Buffalo's new owner has a tonne of cash flow in the present and is using that to hedge his profits for a later date. What I mean is that he is giving out bonuses, and front loaded contracts now, in order to keep payrolls down in later years. Myers, Leino, Ehrhoff, Sekera are all evidence of this. Buffalo is a low revenue team, by flowing cash into these contracts now, while he has them, they can be very profitable down the line if they are a successful club. These are strictly business moves, not based on traditional merit contracts.

2) Montreal does not have this problem; they have consistent and heavy revenue flow on a yearly basis. They do not need to hedge money to keep costs down in the future. Another example of this is Toronto. These kind of clubs do not rely on this tactic, because it essentially has no bearing on cap hits(which are becoming more inconsequential by each passing season), so they keep contracts short in RFA years because of their upper hand in negotiations, to keep their contracts down in those years. When a player has earned, and proven himself as a strong asset to the club, he is awarded with a longer contract, with a good market term, an example of this is Markov and Plekanec, and Price will probably be the next one. Subban, probably will see a short term contract of 2 or 3 years, similar to what Kostitsyn or Price got on their first non-entry level contracts.
I have not claimed that the Canadiens are likely to make a 7 year offer. Only that comparables are used by management and agents in negotiation, and therefore in setting wages, and that using Myers as a comp for Subban does not come out of left field.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
But they are not comparable. Buffalo lacks a true elite level defensemen, which enables Myers to push for longer term and higher value because there is no cut off point.
There was no enabling needed! Myers and the Sabres agreed on a contract they both found reasonable. If you think Myers and his agent would have agreed to less money if Markov was a Sabre,
you are being naive.

BTW, do you really believe Myers was the one pushing for longer term? The fact that the two UFA years he gave up have value is important to this argument.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
Your argument is as follows:

1. X player got $5.5 million dollars on a longer term deal as an RFA.
2. Y player is about to become a RFA next year.
3. X and Y player are the same.
4. Therefore, if Y player wants a long term deal, it will be $5.5 million dollars.

The problem with that argument, while logical, is premise 3 is incorrect.
Despite the oversimplified language, I'll play along. I believe the two players are good comps because they both handle big minutes in the NHL despite their age, including on special teams. They each have a unique physical talent (Myers' size, Subban's skating) that should make them special players as they learn to think the game better. They have both shown the ability to put up points at even strength.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
Why would the market have any power if the player is restricted for upwards of the next 5 years?
On top of the usual RFA back and forth? Because of the 2 UFA years, and because of the 2 potential arbitration years. The player is under no obligation to give those rights up without compensation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
Until you see the different strategies of different revenue capable teams in the league, you cannot differentiate between how contracts are awarded on a player by player basis.
I think I'm starting to see the root of the misunderstanding here. You believe that contracts are "awarded," not negotiated. Comps become important because both teams and agents use them in negotiation. There are two parties involved when a dollar figure is decided upon, not one.

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Old
09-16-2011, 12:29 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Maybe in your philosophy! In reality, Gordie Howe ain't gonna come back and make the league max because of what he's done
This really has nothing to do with what I was pertaining to.

Quote:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ain't gonna make $550k because of his lack of NHL accomplishments.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' base salary is $925k.

Quote:
I have not claimed that the Canadiens are likely to make a 7 year offer. Only that comparables are used by management and agents in negotiation, and therefore in setting wages, and that using Myers as a comp for Subban does not come out of left field.
How many times do I have to state this:

Myer's contract has little or no bearing on Subban's upcoming contract.

Quote:
There was no enabling needed! Myers and the Sabres agreed on a contract they both found reasonable. If you think Myers and his agent would have agreed to less money if Markov was a Sabre, you are being naive.
The negotiation process would have been different.

Quote:
BTW, do you really believe Myers was the one pushing for longer term? The fact that the two UFA years he gave up have value is important to this argument.
They actually don't mean much. Myers avoided his low paying RFA years, and is scheduled to reach UFA period in his prime, regardless. The fact that "he gave up two years of UFA" really has no bearing considering players of his caliber typical only sign one contract between the period of initially hitting UFA, and 32 years of age anyways. I am not sure why you think this is such a big deal.

Quote:
Despite the oversimplified language, I'll play along. I believe the two players are good comps because they both handle big minutes in the NHL despite their age, including on special teams. They each have a unique physical talent (Myers' size, Subban's skating) that should make them special players as they learn to think the game better. They have both shown the ability to put up points at even strength.
This really has nothing to do with my argument.

Quote:
On top of the usual RFA back and forth? Because of the 2 UFA years, and because of the 2 potential arbitration years. The player is under no obligation to give those rights up without compensation.
Already answered this above.

Quote:
I think I'm starting to see the root of the misunderstanding here. You believe that contracts are "awarded," not negotiated.
A players contract is heavily dependent on what he has done for the team, or in the NHL before hand. So yes, in that sense, they are awarded.

Agents will try to argue that they have achieved more than what the team believes so, to increase the value of the contract.

Quote:
Comps become important because both teams and agents use them in negotiation.
Not as much as you seem to think.

Quote:
There are two parties involved when a dollar figure is decided upon, not one.
I have stated this explicitly multiple times.

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Old
09-16-2011, 07:08 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
Hey, Subban for 7 years at $5.5M is fine by me. He was a dynamic and studly #1/2 guy last season already. I'd have no fear whatsoever about paying him that kind of money for the next 7. He'd be a bargain for some goodly stretch of it. And it would just be nice to get him locked up that long.
Damn right, Myers will be kicking himself in 3-4 years when he's worth at least 7M/year.

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09-16-2011, 07:39 AM
  #62
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I haven't really read all the posts this morning and only quickly read Myers deal. So I may be just talking out of my butttt.

My question is.......If P.K has a year like last or possibly even better can we not agree that having him locked up for the following seven years at 5.5 million would not be a steal?

I think PG should sign him to those numbers right now if possible.

Just my two cents.

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Old
09-16-2011, 08:01 AM
  #63
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I believe that Subban will get a contract with the Habs.
Oh how I have missed your wit Sandvich!

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09-16-2011, 09:01 AM
  #64
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I'd take Subban over Myers any day. I hate both the Habs and Sabres and respect them but even if Subban doesn't put up the same points as Myers in the future, he just has that winning attitude and clutch performance and a helluva shot. He still has a lot of time to improve defensively (so does Myers) but I'd take PK over Myers.

I think contract wise he'd get like 4.5-5M if he has a good season.

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09-16-2011, 11:25 AM
  #65
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He'll get a 5 year extension somewhere between the Myers and Schenn deals for cap hit if I had to guess.

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09-19-2011, 12:14 AM
  #66
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5.5 is awesome. I consider him to have higher potential than markov, so with markov making 5.75 we are getting a deal, not to mention the fact that in about 5 years with the growth of the league and in turn the salary cap, a player of his talent will be valued at much more than that.

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10-02-2011, 07:34 PM
  #67
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What if Subban has Doughty-esque numbers this season?

Doughty rookie season : 27 points
Second season : 59 points

Most people expect Subban to be Montreal's first defenseman this year (because of Markov injury).

If he manages to get a 50+ points in his sophomore season, what kind of contract do you expect him to get?

Doughty recently signed for 56M/8 years (7 million/year)

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10-02-2011, 07:36 PM
  #68
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...then you give him a Doughty-esque contract.

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10-02-2011, 08:37 PM
  #69
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That question is the reason why James Wisniewski was not offered a contract.

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10-02-2011, 09:28 PM
  #70
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...then you give him a Doughty-esque contract.
I don't know, I have yet to see from Habs management that it's willing to go to the length of a 7-yr deal.

On Subban, say he has a 50+ point season... I could see them going as high as 6M for 5 or 6 years, but it's still very early. For all we know they strike a deal mid-season like Philly did with Giroux and get him locked in a little cheaper, say 4-4.5M over the next 2-3 seasons (which would keep his RFA status). That seems to be (historicly) where 2nd contracts end up in this organization, mind you it's been a very long time we've had a young player of Subban's caliber.

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10-02-2011, 09:35 PM
  #71
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Subban will sign a 8m/2y

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10-02-2011, 09:36 PM
  #72
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Subban will be a $5 million per player possibly, or the Habs will sign him to a 3 year deal for $12 million so he will still be a RFA and the Gomez and Cammalleri contracts will be off the books if such a Myers and Doughty deal happens.

Carey Price will be the highest paid Hab come this summer or sooner.

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Old
10-02-2011, 09:43 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by RE-HABS View Post
Subban will be a $5 million per player possibly, or the Habs will sign him to a 3 year deal for $12 million so he will still be a RFA and the Gomez and Cammalleri contracts will be off the books if such a Myers and Doughty deal happens.

Carey Price will be the highest paid Hab come this summer or sooner.
I doubt he will exceed gomez's 7.whatever million

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10-02-2011, 10:33 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by 24stanleycups View Post
I doubt he will exceed gomez's 7.whatever million
That will be Gomez's cap hit, his actually salary will be $4.5 million. Price will be in the Lundqvist, Luongo, Ward, Miller and Kiprusoff $6 - $6.5 million per range.

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Old
10-02-2011, 10:37 PM
  #75
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A lot of people keep bringing up Doughty, this us Montreal is a is a hole different animal. Our guy is new, they in LA should be comparing their guys to ours. Come one guys/Girls were original 6, were in control here!

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