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TSN: Habs will win east.

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Old
10-02-2011, 01:18 PM
  #101
macavoy
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Originally Posted by neofury View Post
True but Eller isn't supposed to be out for long, we have more depth and a better team this year to begin with, and look how well we did last year without Markov and Gorges. Gorges has looked amazing out there too.

In my personal opinion we have a lot more to look forward to than to be pessimistic about. Sure we have some questions on D but we have the depth to keep mostly veterans on the D anyways even with Markov injured.

I expect we'll have a better season than last. Plus I know Campoli is a question mark currently but if he's okay that adds another veteran presence on the blue line.

We finished 6th last year with a worse team, less depth, less development on our young players. It isn't as far out of the scope of reality as some people might think. We also had guaranteed injuries, this year Gorges might play a full season, Markov might play a full season. Last year those were pipe dreams haha
Last year, we started with Markov and after he went down, we got the Wiz. This year, Markov is down and we have nobody to replace him. With Habs brass being tight lipped, we have no idea if its a week or a month.

I agree we have a better team, better depth and more reason to be optomistic. I just think 5th is too optomistic given our injury situation. At the end of the day, I'm not worried, I think we'll be the healthiest at the end of the season, when it matters most.

I just don't see us having as strong as a start as last year and I think that will affect us in the standings.

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10-02-2011, 01:29 PM
  #102
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A lot would have to go right for them to win the east. I think they can battle for the division lead, but the east is a long-shot.

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10-02-2011, 01:33 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
Last year, we started with Markov and after he went down, we got the Wiz. This year, Markov is down and we have nobody to replace him. With Habs brass being tight lipped, we have no idea if its a week or a month.
That's the narrative when it comes to Markov's injury and the Wisniewski trade but is it really the case? Markov's last game was November 13th and Wiz wasn't acquired until December 28th. Josh Gorges last game was December 26th.

Looking at it that way, it seems like Gauthier thought the team could get by without Markov until another tough-minutes defenseman got injured.

I am concerned about Markov's health but with the return of Gorges and the emergence of Subban I think the Habs can get by for a month or two without any big issues.

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10-02-2011, 03:04 PM
  #104
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As a Bruins fan I hope the Bruins win the East, but anything could happen, Pittsburgh, Washington, Montreal, Philly are all great teams. Anyone of them could take it, 1st place in the East is up fro grabs like it is every year.

Good Luck to Everyone. Have a great season ...

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10-02-2011, 05:09 PM
  #105
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Makes sense. Couple teams could win it. No way we are far behind some teams mentioned. Tampa is not better. Bruins are not better plus they will take it easy for a while. Philly could be real good but could have a hard time the first 25 games. Washington is my pick. Pittsburgh without Crosby are a big question mark.
But Markov needs to be there 60 games.

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10-02-2011, 05:33 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
A lot would have to go right for them to win the east. I think they can battle for the division lead, but the east is a long-shot.
I agree, but I actually think we're the favorites for the NE, so if we can win the NE anything can happen. I don't think it's that far fetched. Washington is the safer pick, but we'll see, one top player with a long term injury and suddenly we're in the hunt.

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10-02-2011, 05:48 PM
  #107
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3-4th seems more realistic, and I'd be happy with that.

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10-02-2011, 07:32 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I agree, but I actually think we're the favorites for the NE, so if we can win the NE anything can happen. I don't think it's that far fetched. Washington is the safer pick, but we'll see, one top player with a long term injury and suddenly we're in the hunt.
Yes, we are expected to fight all season long for the divisional title, but there is no clear-cut favorite in the Northeast this season around. Boston and Buffalo are our main opponents, and Toronto is in the outside looking in.

Only the Southeast has anything that looks like a clear-cut divisional favorite: Washington, unless Crosby and Malkin both come back to form, in which case the Atlantic has Pittsburgh as a clear-cut favorite.

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10-02-2011, 08:00 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by jerrywally23 View Post
As a Bruins fan I hope the Bruins win the East, but anything could happen, Pittsburgh, Washington, Montreal, Philly are all great teams. Anyone of them could take it, 1st place in the East is up fro grabs like it is every year.

Good Luck to Everyone. Have a great season ...
A good-natured Bruins fan could only be from Canada.

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10-03-2011, 02:35 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Oldies View Post
What a joke! We're far from a top east team. Our defensive squad is too fragile and our guys upfront are way way too small and easy to intimidate.

I'd say we'll barely make teh playoffs, just like last year.
so you just go around repeating what you hear on l'antichambre?

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10-03-2011, 07:31 AM
  #111
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Yes we did improve over last year, but look how most of the teams battling for playoff spots in the east improved aswell! That's the problem. I speak to ALOT of folks from other towns via NHL12 EASHL, always ask them what team they root for etc and ask them what they think of the Mourial Canadiens and most say the same thing : all depends on Price.

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10-03-2011, 08:19 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Oldies View Post
Yes we did improve over last year, but look how most of the teams battling for playoff spots in the east improved aswell! That's the problem. I speak to ALOT of folks from other towns via NHL12 EASHL, always ask them what team they root for etc and ask them what they think of the Mourial Canadiens and most say the same thing : all depends on Price.
So your saying you have no faith in Price after last season? lol

Price is so freaking amazing, we are a lock for 8th place just because of him and our depth. Why do you doubt the guy?

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10-03-2011, 09:26 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
A few notes:

Faceoffs are overrated. While they are not without value, their impact on winning a game is low, largely because the difference between the best and the worst faceoff team in the league is roughly 55-45.

And while the perception may be that Montreal is especially terrible on faceoffs, at 49%, they are in reality below average but hardly catastrophic. Improving to become the best faceoff team in the league, from there, might be worth about 35% of an extra win. It's an advantadge, but not one worth fussing over overmuch.
I understand what you mean. Teams faceoffs stats don't mean a lot, but being good at faceoff is a huge part of the game.

I might be wrong here (after all, you're the MathMan!) but let say Plekanec who has a 49% success rate takes 10 faceoffs against Crosby who has a 56%. What will be the result?

About 50/50 since a 7% difference isn't that much?

Probably not. Crosby will win most of them.

Basically, that 7% might turn into a 70% success for Crosby, and a terrible 30% for Pleky.

Now, let's say you're on the PP. You send Plekanec on the ice. It's very likely he'll face a better center than him, which means the odds you'll end up with the puck are actually a lot lower than 50%. Each time you lose a face off on the PP, you waste at least about 1/4 of it the get back in the zone and take the control of it. If that happens 70% of the time, you'll see a huge impact on the PP productivity, and also on your point total at the end of the season.

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10-03-2011, 09:41 AM
  #114
macavoy
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Originally Posted by IWalkThroughWalls View Post
I understand what you mean. Teams faceoffs stats don't mean a lot, but being good at faceoff is a huge part of the game.

I might be wrong here (after all, you're the MathMan!) but let say Plekanec who has a 49% success rate takes 10 faceoffs against Crosby who has a 56%. What will be the result?

About 50/50 since a 7% difference isn't that much?

Probably not. Crosby will win most of them.

Basically, that 7% might turn into a 70% success for Crosby, and a terrible 30% for Pleky.

Now, let's say you're on the PP. You send Plekanec on the ice. It's very likely he'll face a better center than him, which means the odds you'll end up with the puck are actually a lot lower than 50%. Each time you lose a face off on the PP, you waste at least about 1/4 of it the get back in the zone and take the control of it. If that happens 70% of the time, you'll see a huge impact on the PP productivity, and also on your point total at the end of the season.
I think you've walked through too many walls. You need to go back to math class.

Your post was pretty entertaining though.

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10-03-2011, 09:47 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Oldies View Post
Yes we did improve over last year, but look how most of the teams battling for playoff spots in the east improved aswell! That's the problem. I speak to ALOT of folks from other towns via NHL12 EASHL, always ask them what team they root for etc and ask them what they think of the Mourial Canadiens and most say the same thing : all depends on Price.
I can't wait till you people get your own team board.

Aside from NY, I don't see any team in the east getting a better player than Markov, cuz he is an addition, an improvement on last season.

And if the people you asked that question to, knew their hockey a little bit better, they'd understand that it bides as much on one of Subban or Markov being there, if not, that's when it will all depend on Price.

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10-03-2011, 09:50 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I think you've walked through too many walls. You need to go back to math class.

Your post was pretty entertaining though.
He makes one valid point though (even if exaggerated) which is who you have able to win face-offs matters a lot too and that the team global face-off % can be misleading in that sense.

Having a 4th line center winning 60% of his face-offs is not necessarily as important as your first line center being unable to win face-offs to start the PP. It might end up being a 50% team % on face-offs, but depending on how it's distributed it's not the same as having your first line center being a face-off beast like Crosby because then your best line doesn't spend half its time running around trying to get the puck back, they start with it.

So global stats in this sense don't necessarily tell the whole picture, maybe if you looked at face-off win % of the top (or top 2) centers of each team you would get a totally different result. I don't think that would necessarily be the case and I don't think that face-offs are as important a factor as most others, but his post was not just random rambling either.

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10-03-2011, 10:09 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Patccmoi View Post
He makes one valid point though (even if exaggerated) which is who you have able to win face-offs matters a lot too and that the team global face-off % can be misleading in that sense.

Having a 4th line center winning 60% of his face-offs is not necessarily as important as your first line center being unable to win face-offs to start the PP. It might end up being a 50% team % on face-offs, but depending on how it's distributed it's not the same as having your first line center being a face-off beast like Crosby because then your best line doesn't spend half its time running around trying to get the puck back, they start with it.

So global stats in this sense don't necessarily tell the whole picture, maybe if you looked at face-off win % of the top (or top 2) centers of each team you would get a totally different result. I don't think that would necessarily be the case and I don't think that face-offs are as important a factor as most others, but his post was not just random rambling either.
Actually if you looked at global stats they would. Because global stats would take into account that one person takes more face offs than another and the team average is the number for the entire team for the entire year.

Center 1 49%
Center 2 49%
Center 3 53%
Center 4 60%

The team average would more likely be around 50% if Center's 1 and 2 are taking the majority of the draws. Having one high number doesn't change the team average. You still calculate all of the draws by the team.

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Old
10-03-2011, 10:17 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by IWalkThroughWalls View Post
I might be wrong here (after all, you're the MathMan!) but let say Plekanec who has a 49% success rate takes 10 faceoffs against Crosby who has a 56%. What will be the result?

About 50/50 since a 7% difference isn't that much?

Probably not. Crosby will win most of them.
Faceoffs are not a game where the guy with the highest rating wins 90% of the time. Crosby won 56% against the rest of the league, which obviously has a 50% win rate (and slightly less in this case, given that Crosby's not taking faceoffs against himself). If he goes against an average faceoff taker like Plekanec... you'd see him win about, oh, 57% of the faceoffs, I'd say.

Technically that's indeed "most of them", but I don't think that's as much difference as what you had in mind.

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10-03-2011, 10:20 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
The team average would more likely be around 50% if Center's 1 and 2 are taking the majority of the draws. Having one high number doesn't change the team average. You still calculate all of the draws by the team.
Furthermore, your top guys are not only taking more faceoffs, they're taking the higher-leverage ones.

Everyone goes ga-ga about Konopka's faceoff ability, but come the last five minutes of the game or so, he doesn't have the goal-scoring ability to be on when you're down a goal and he's not good enough defensively to be on when you're up a goal. And he doesn't have the hockey ability to play against the opposition's top guys that would be out in high-leverage situations like these. Basically, Konopka is a guy with a neat skill, and who isn't good enough as an overall hockey player to use it at any time that matters.

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10-03-2011, 10:24 AM
  #120
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The panelist in question has got to be Craig Button. I'm begiing to love his Hab homerism. His enthusiasm for the Habs is refreshing....and something I've never seen on TSN, a station which never gives them credit.

Remember last year, after Tinordi failed to make the US world junior team, doesn't put up big numbers in the OHL (even though the expectations were not that high to begin with), and Button puts him as his biggest jumper in his redo of the 2010 draft.

I like this guy.....

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10-03-2011, 10:27 AM
  #121
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I'm predicting a 5th place and 100 pts season. But hope to be in the 3 first by winning the division and I think it's possible we will surprise alot of peoples this season IMO.

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10-03-2011, 10:33 AM
  #122
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I've enjoyed reading through this thread, your takes on Montreal and Boston and some of the stats y'all have mentioned. And I would like nothing more than to watch Boston and Montreal duke it out for the Conference all year.

A few things about Boston that I never saw mentioned that could definitely inflate their regular season point totals this year are...

They were the worst team in the NHL last year in OT/SO. If that balances at all then that could add another 5pts. (if they became good it could add 10)

They had the 16th rated P.K. unit. - which I would expect improvement on (although it could be argued that even if they do improve the %, that they could also easily increase their penalty minutes and score less Shorties to even this out)

They had the 20th rated Power Play last year and were 26th in power play goals. Better or worse? I'm not sure but without Ryder, Recchi and Kaberle - this unit will look very different.

Even if you believe that Thomas's stats will fall a bit leading to a few more losses (I'm still hoping he can better his numbers from last season) that it needs to be taken into account that Tuukka Rask was 11-14-2 last year. Although time will tell, I can't see him carrying a losing record this year.

Something that won't inflate their point totals but hints that Boston will be a strong team this year is that
Boston had an NHL leading even strength goal differential of +58 -
Compared to Tampa Bay having a (atrocious) -13, Montreal at +1, and Buffalo at +9

Sidenote: I hope Markov returns healthy for your team. I thought they should have cut ties with him this summer and turned the page, that he might become more of a distraction than a benefit as the fans and team think 'if only' - but I hope he works out and is still the kind of player we all remember he was.

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10-03-2011, 10:37 AM
  #123
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Boston's goal differential was mostly ridiculous goaltending, with a big dash of shooting luck thrown in. In terms of controlling the play they were eminently pedestrian, and were an extremely high-event club.

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10-03-2011, 10:42 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by b in vancouver View Post
Even if you believe that Thomas's stats will fall a bit leading to a few more losses (I'm still hoping he can better his numbers from last season)
wow

you are optomistic

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10-03-2011, 10:46 AM
  #125
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
wow

you are optomistic
Yep. Thomas is the Wayne Gretzky of goaltenders, and he's going to top the best goaltending season of all time, just you watch.

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