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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft

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Old
10-17-2011, 08:22 PM
  #1
squidz*
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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft

To clear the early draft speculation out of the Prospect Thread, talk about next year's draft here.



To start it off: Defense, defense, defense

Murray, Dumba, Trouba, Rielly and more!

Rankings Links

Top 100
ISS Top 30 (October)
ISS Top 30 (November)
ISS Top 30 (December)
ISS Top 30 (January)
ISS Top 30 (February)
CSS Rankings (Preliminary - North America)
CSS Rankings (Midterm)
Button's Top 30 (October)
Button's Top 60 (November)
Button's Top 60 (December)
Button's Top 60 (January)
Button's Top 60 (February)
Button's Top 60 (March)
Future Considerations Top 30
HF Tracking Thread
FC Rankings by League (Nov)
FC Rankings by League (Dec)
FC Rankings by League (Jan)
FC Rankings (Feb)
FC Rankings (Mar)
FC Sliders (Dec)
FC Risers (Dec)
McKenzie's Midterm Top Prospects
Draftsite.com 7 Round Rankings
Mathletic's March Rankings

Mock Drafts
Hockey Lobby Midterm Discussion (Permalink to mock)
Velociraptor's HF Mock
Makaveli's HF Mock
Mathletic's March Mock Draft

Players of Note
Nail Yakupov
Mikhail Grigorenko
Ryan Murray
Radek Faksa
Nick Ebert
Morgan Rielly
Alex Galchenyuk
Matt Dumba
Griffin Reinhart
Jacob Trouba
Derrick Pouliot
Martin Frk
Olli Maata
Michael Matheson
Cody Ceci


Pythagorean Draft Position
DraftTeamPtsGRPPGPythProjOddsHighest
1stCOLUMBUS53100.740.3396125.0%1st
2ndEDMONTON64100.890.4457418.8%1st
3rdNY ISLANDERS69100.960.3717714.2%1st
4thMINNESOTA70100.970.3777810.7%1st
5thMONTREAL6990.950.479798.1%1st
6thTAMPA BAY71100.990.402806.2%2nd
7thANAHEIM7380.990.454814.7%3rd
8thTORONTO7290.990.457813.6%4th
9thCAROLINA7391.000.459822.7%5th
10thWINNIPEG76101.060.472872.1%6th
11thBUFFALO7891.070.447871.5%7th
12thWASHINGTON8091.100.476901.1%8th
13thCALGARY8191.110.467900.8%9th
14thCOLORADO8381.120.478920.5%10th
15thPHOENIX8391.140.512930.0%15th
16thSAN JOSE82101.140.525940.0%16th
17thDALLAS83101.150.486940.0%17th
18thLOS ANGELES82101.140.534940.0%18th
19thFLORIDA83111.170.461940.0%19th
20thOTTAWA8491.150.517940.0%20th
21stNEW JERSEY8791.190.502970.0%21st
22ndCHICAGO8891.210.521980.0%22nd
23rdBOSTON87101.210.6281010.0%23rd
24thDETROIT9291.260.6011040.0%24th
25thNASHVILLE92101.280.5561040.0%25th
26thPHILADELPHIA92101.280.5711050.0%26th
27thVANCOUVER94101.310.6041080.0%27th
28thPITTSBURGH94111.320.6121090.0%28th
29thNY RANGERS97101.350.6151110.0%29th
30thST LOUIS10091.370.6521130.0%30th


Last edited by squidz*: 03-20-2012 at 09:25 AM. Reason: Added Links
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Old
10-17-2011, 08:25 PM
  #2
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i would take the most NHL ready of the top Defensemen left on the board. We're going to need that guy soon so I'd rather not wait for the greater "upside" to materialize if the more ready player is still relatively good.

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10-17-2011, 08:53 PM
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Personally, it depends on where we draft. If top 5, I would look for a forward. Not seeing us there though, mid first round most likely, then I wouldn't mind a dmen. But hopefully they draft BPA rather then need.

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10-17-2011, 08:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DW View Post
Personally, it depends on where we draft. If top 5, I would look for a forward. Not seeing us there though, mid first round most likely, then I wouldn't mind a dmen. But hopefully they draft BPA rather then need.
The only place I can see us grabbing a forward is in that 11-15 range. If Nail stays the unchallenged #1 you have Murray, Dumba, Reilly, and a couple others up in the 2-10 range.

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10-17-2011, 09:06 PM
  #5
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The only place I can see us grabbing a forward is in that 11-15 range. If Nail stays the unchallenged #1 you have Murray, Dumba, Reilly, and a couple others up in the 2-10 range.
I don't see Ryan Murray getting past #3, if not #2. He is going to be so good. I would love a defenseman if the value were there depending on where we're picking.. But I wouldn't pick one just to pick one. If Alex Galchenyuk or Grigorenko fall past a bunch of the defensemen, I wouldn't have a problem picking one of them.

That said, I don't see a top-end forward falling to where the Wild will be so a D seems a little more realistic. Ebert, Trouba, Reinhart or Rielly could be realistic options that I see us getting. If somehow this season slips out from under us and we get a top 3 pick, if Nail isn't the choice, Ryan Murray is the way to go.

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10-17-2011, 09:12 PM
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Rielly would be a good pick, plays for my local WHL team, but he's rated 5th overall right now and depending on how the Wild do this season I don't think he'll fall down the list to them. Great puck mover and decent on defense from what I've seen watching the games.

Good OFD.

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10-17-2011, 09:18 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Generic User View Post
I don't see Ryan Murray getting past #3, if not #2. He is going to be so good. I would love a defenseman if the value were there depending on where we're picking.. But I wouldn't pick one just to pick one. If Alex Galchenyuk or Grigorenko fall past a bunch of the defensemen, I wouldn't have a problem picking one of them.

That said, I don't see a top-end forward falling to where the Wild will be so a D seems a little more realistic. Ebert, Trouba, Reinhart or Rielly could be realistic options that I see us getting. If somehow this season slips out from under us and we get a top 3 pick, if Nail isn't the choice, Ryan Murray is the way to go.
Apparently Galchenyuk's injured, and it sounds like he's plummeting down early draft boards. Button has him at 4, but the ISS has him all the way down at 17.

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10-18-2011, 12:30 AM
  #8
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I like that Griffin Reinhart dude, hoping that we could get him.

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10-18-2011, 07:28 AM
  #9
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the biggest questions is what the wild will need come june 2012, i know right now defense if the leading candidate and also who is available at the Wild pick.

its too early to tell now if the wild will draft in top 10 or if they will draft 15-20 range, my hope is that we pick a guy who best fits what the team lacks. Right now we lack an offensive dman type.

also the biggest thing is this list is going to look totally different in march and april when we know where we are going to be picking. so while a guy like cody ceci is there now he might be top 10, likewise someone who's in the top 10 might fall. In the last month really Jonas Brodin was mentioned in the top 10 by McKenzie prior to then he wasn't there.

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10-18-2011, 08:08 AM
  #10
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RE: BPA

Good God do I hate this term. For some reason people seem to think there's some secret, master list that tells you exactly who the best player is, and that it's somehow universal across all teams. "BPA" is a horribly subjective term which depends upon a multitude of factors. Perhaps the most important factor of BPA is actually system need.

The fact is, there's not some discrete number system where (to use 2011 as an example) the Avs said "well Landeskog is a 9.53, and Larsson is a 9.47, and Huberdeau is a 9.50 so we'll take Landeskog." In fact, the Avs might have thought that Larsson was a slightly better option than Landeskog, but the Avs are second to only Nashville in defensive depth. For better or worse, the current regime is tied inexoribly to EJ, and will sink or swim based upon his play. Put simply, unless one player was ridiculously beyond any other available player remaining (and we're talking like Larsson vs Jurco here) the Avs weren't going to select a defenseman.

Likewise, with Florida, they quite possibly thought that Larsson was better than Huberdeau. Looking at Florida on draft day, people might have opined that they had a "need" for defense at the NHL level. However, their best defensive prospect (Gudbradson) is considered to be much more promising than their best center prospect (Bjugstad) was at the time. If they had Huberdeau and Larsson ranked close to each other, they go with Huberdeau because they're more needy at center than defense. Furthermore, there's a lot to say about the value of different positions. It's certainly not unheard of for second round picks to develop into genuine top pairing defensemen, it's rare for even late first round picks to end up as a genuine 1C.

tl;dr

BPA is dumb, and doesn't mean what people think it means.

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10-18-2011, 08:13 AM
  #11
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Squidz hit that one dead on; outside of maybe a generational talent on top of the draft once every decade, the draft never goes according to anyone's list.

I'm up for any talented defensemen. Assuming we will draft in the 8-15 spot. We don't have our 2nd this year so it would be nice if we are out of it to move Brodziak, Zanon, and Zidlicky for picks at the deadline. We need to overhaul this roster.

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10-18-2011, 08:33 AM
  #12
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I don't think we could get enough in return to make me happy with a Zidlicky trade. Now, maybe if we could steal one of the Leafs' excess offensive defensemen (do we have any "truculent" players to trade Burkie?) I'd be okay with the sort of return we get for Zid, but I'd like for our team to be somewhat respectable this season.

Looking at some past comparables, it seems that Brodziak would be worth a 2nd to maybe 2nd+. At the start of the season I would have said Zanon was worth a little more than a third (considering that deadline picks are generally late picks) and not quite a second. He has been playing remarkably well (by Zanon standards) this season so maybe that could be bumped up to a 2nd, or maybe someone who's out of the playoffs will have traded their third, to a playoff team, and we can pick that one up.


On a related note, someone (read as: not me because I'm lazy) should put together a good summary list of our prospects. What I mean is something like this:

Centers: Granlund (PLY, top 6), Coyle (PWF, 2nd/3rd line)
Defensemen: Cuma (DFD, 3rd-6th), Brodin (TWD, top pairing)

The important part is the play style, and the expected spot in the lineup is just gravy.

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10-18-2011, 08:44 AM
  #13
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I think this team will more than likely be drafting in the top ten when all is said and done. More so in the range they have been drafting the past few seasons than being top 5 brutal. Things could always change but that's how I view things.

As for who they select, if they were in position to select one of Yakupov, Grigorenko, Forsberg, or Galchenyuk I think you do it given their offensive skill sets. It'd be nice to add more depth and higher end talent to the defensive side of things, but I don't think it's wise to pass up that sort of offense in favor of defensemen given different development paths and how each aspect of the game transfers to the next level from both positions. The Marcantuoni kid out of Kitchner is a guy to keep an eye on in my opinion. There's not a whole lot of talk about him.

As for defensemen, in the more realistic sense I do like Trouba. Would be buying a Murray sweater the day he's drafted if they some how drafted him, though. There's other defensemen who intrigue me but I'll wait for the season to play out a bit more.

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Last edited by this providence: 10-18-2011 at 08:51 AM.
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10-18-2011, 08:50 AM
  #14
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I'd be happy with a 2nd + later rounder for Zidlicky. We just need to completely change this blue line.

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10-18-2011, 08:51 AM
  #15
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I agree if we pick in the top ten again this year defense would be the way to go. Hopefully we would get a top pairing guy out of it.

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10-18-2011, 09:00 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
RE: BPA

Good God do I hate this term. For some reason people seem to think there's some secret, master list that tells you exactly who the best player is, and that it's somehow universal across all teams. "BPA" is a horribly subjective term which depends upon a multitude of factors. Perhaps the most important factor of BPA is actually system need.

The fact is, there's not some discrete number system where (to use 2011 as an example) the Avs said "well Landeskog is a 9.53, and Larsson is a 9.47, and Huberdeau is a 9.50 so we'll take Landeskog." In fact, the Avs might have thought that Larsson was a slightly better option than Landeskog, but the Avs are second to only Nashville in defensive depth. For better or worse, the current regime is tied inexoribly to EJ, and will sink or swim based upon his play. Put simply, unless one player was ridiculously beyond any other available player remaining (and we're talking like Larsson vs Jurco here) the Avs weren't going to select a defenseman.

Likewise, with Florida, they quite possibly thought that Larsson was better than Huberdeau. Looking at Florida on draft day, people might have opined that they had a "need" for defense at the NHL level. However, their best defensive prospect (Gudbradson) is considered to be much more promising than their best center prospect (Bjugstad) was at the time. If they had Huberdeau and Larsson ranked close to each other, they go with Huberdeau because they're more needy at center than defense. Furthermore, there's a lot to say about the value of different positions. It's certainly not unheard of for second round picks to develop into genuine top pairing defensemen, it's rare for even late first round picks to end up as a genuine 1C.

tl;dr

BPA is dumb, and doesn't mean what people think it means.
i've had the same rant two drafts in a row here.

BPA is always subjective. best player available for our team plan.

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10-18-2011, 09:11 AM
  #17
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IMO:

Top Six:
- Granlund, playmaker
- Lucia, power forward
- Phillips, dangler
- Zucker, sniper

Tweeners:
- Bulmer, checker/power forward
- Coyle, two-way/power forward
- Haula, two-way
- Larsson, two-way
- Wellman, sniper

Grinders:
- Almond
- Foucault
- Gillies
- McIntyre
- McMillan
- Rau

-----

Top Four:
- Brodin, puck mover
- Scandella, defensive

Depth/Specialists:
- Cuma
- Falk
- Genoway
- Penner
- Prosser
- Seeler
- Spurgeon

-----

Hackett - future starter
Kuemper - future backup

-----

IMO everyone else won't cut it at the NHL level. Most of the grinders and depth D guys probably won't either.

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10-18-2011, 09:46 AM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
IMO:

Top Six:
- Granlund, playmaker
- Lucia, power forward
- Phillips, dangler
- Zucker, sniper

Tweeners:
- Bulmer, checker/power forward
- Coyle, two-way/power forward
- Haula, two-way
- Larsson, two-way
- Wellman, sniper

Grinders:
- Almond
- Foucault
- Gillies
- McIntyre
- McMillan
- Rau

-----

Top two:
- Brodin, TWD puck mover top dman potential
- Scandella, TWD able to move the puck more focus on defense

top 4
Spurgeon: TWD size is issue but to me as long as he doesnt have to play huge minutes he is a solid defenseman, has been good all year no reason he cant get better

Cuma: DFD road is long chances small but i am pulling for him


Depth/Specialists:
- Falk
- Genoway
- Penner
- Prosser
- Seeler


-----

Hackett - future starter
Gustafsson- future co-starter seriously people will see this kid playing well in SEL will be starter for SWE at WJC almost two years younger then kuempur

-----

IMO everyone else won't cut it at the NHL level. Most of the grinders and depth D guys probably won't either.
bolded changes i feel should be made

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10-18-2011, 09:49 AM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
RE: BPA

Good God do I hate this term. For some reason people seem to think there's some secret, master list that tells you exactly who the best player is, and that it's somehow universal across all teams. "BPA" is a horribly subjective term which depends upon a multitude of factors. Perhaps the most important factor of BPA is actually system need.

The fact is, there's not some discrete number system where (to use 2011 as an example) the Avs said "well Landeskog is a 9.53, and Larsson is a 9.47, and Huberdeau is a 9.50 so we'll take Landeskog." In fact, the Avs might have thought that Larsson was a slightly better option than Landeskog, but the Avs are second to only Nashville in defensive depth. For better or worse, the current regime is tied inexoribly to EJ, and will sink or swim based upon his play. Put simply, unless one player was ridiculously beyond any other available player remaining (and we're talking like Larsson vs Jurco here) the Avs weren't going to select a defenseman.

Likewise, with Florida, they quite possibly thought that Larsson was better than Huberdeau. Looking at Florida on draft day, people might have opined that they had a "need" for defense at the NHL level. However, their best defensive prospect (Gudbradson) is considered to be much more promising than their best center prospect (Bjugstad) was at the time. If they had Huberdeau and Larsson ranked close to each other, they go with Huberdeau because they're more needy at center than defense. Furthermore, there's a lot to say about the value of different positions. It's certainly not unheard of for second round picks to develop into genuine top pairing defensemen, it's rare for even late first round picks to end up as a genuine 1C.

tl;dr

BPA is dumb, and doesn't mean what people think it means.
This is a really good post, if Larsson was a left handed shot (like Siemens) it would make more sense for Avs to pick him, but with guys like EJ, Elliot, and Barrie already in the system it makes little sense (altough I wanted them to draft Larsson).

As for the coming draft, I would stay clear from Galchenyuk, his stats are heavily influanced by Yakupov, it really reminds me of Pat Kane and Schremp (altough Galchenyuk is better than Schremp). Grigorenko is my favourite for a #1 pick, he really reminds me of Evgeni Malkin.

As for D-men, Murray is a definite leader of the pack, Dumba (reminds me of PK Subban, but I think he'll be even better), Trouba, Reilly and Reinhardt are also very good players that could easily end up as #1 defensmen on most NHL teams.

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10-18-2011, 09:53 AM
  #20
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Damn Ivan you should stick around, good to read your posts

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10-18-2011, 09:56 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivan13 View Post
As for D-men, Murray is a definite leader of the pack, Dumba (reminds me of PK Subban, but I think he'll be even better), Trouba, Reilly and Reinhardt are also very good players that could easily end up as #1 defensmen on most NHL teams.
My only problem with Dumba is that I can be incredibly superficial, and I think his name is dumba.

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10-18-2011, 10:05 AM
  #22
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Damn Ivan you should stick around, good to read your posts
I might, I really like your team and I can't wait for Grandlund to come to the NHL, you guys have a gem in your hands.

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10-18-2011, 10:07 AM
  #23
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
My only problem with Dumba is that I can be incredibly superficial, and I think his name is dumba.
He might be, but I like the way he plays.

Oh and I see what you did with the part I bolded.

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10-18-2011, 03:08 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Ivan13 View Post
I might, I really like your team and I can't wait for Granlund to come to the NHL, you guys have a gem in your hands.
If you do, you need to learn to spell his name right!

Yeah, we need NHL ready d's in the next draft, not someone that can step in the NHL in 4 years..

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10-18-2011, 03:45 PM
  #25
Ivan13
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Originally Posted by Spawnisen View Post
If you do, you need to learn to spell his name right!

Yeah, we need NHL ready d's in the next draft, not someone that can step in the NHL in 4 years..
I don't know how that happened, I spelled his name numereous times and I never got it wrong until now and I always check my spelling before I post, I guess I've missed it that time.

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