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Phoenix XL - Rich Man's World

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Old
10-19-2011, 01:48 PM
  #51
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I have a little bit of speculation on recent history, if I may be permitted to post it here.

We all remember that video of supposedly Bettman's reaction as he's reading texting about the Thrashers deal to be relocated to Winnipeg. Many people read that as Bettman being unhappy at the news. But we also should remember that Bettman on various ocassions spoke about Winnipeg deserving to get a team again, so now I'm starting to think that he wasn't at all unhappy about Winnipeg getting a team, he was unhappy about it being the Thrashers. I'm speculating now that Bettman had already slated to tell the League that if a solution can't be found for the Coyotes situation by this December that then the process should get under way to have the Coyotes moved to Winnipeg for the 2012-13 Season. And his realignment proposals were already in hand for that possibility. What happened though was that the owners in Atlanta forced his/the League's hand and moved up the timetable for Winnipeg getting a team one year sooner than Bettman had started to anticipate.

These realignment meetings to be held in December may have already been slated in, even if the Thrashers hadn't been relocated, if the Coyotes were still without a solution in Phoenix.

And now, rather than the League moving on to deal with the situation in Atlanta after December, they are still faced with trying to find a solution to what has become an overly prolonged problem in the desert.

Sorry if someone already came to this conclusion earlier. I haven't been following the Phoenix situation lately.


Last edited by MoreOrr: 10-19-2011 at 01:54 PM.
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10-19-2011, 02:52 PM
  #52
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The Coyotes look like they are bound for QC. News out of Glendale has been curiously absent, with no comment from the city or any new developments with the 2 groups supposedly trying to buy the team. Neither group has promised to keep the team in Glendale. Both are going to be looking for significant subsidies. The city has repeatedly stated that said subsidies are no longer an option. Current political climate is also going to be much more hostile towards such a thing.

The NHL will take money from Glendale to continue the circus until QC is ready for their team.

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10-19-2011, 02:57 PM
  #53
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The Coyotes look like they are bound for QC. News out of Glendale has been curiously absent, with no comment from the city or any new developments with the 2 groups supposedly trying to buy the team. Neither group has promised to keep the team in Glendale. Both are going to be looking for significant subsidies. The city has repeatedly stated that said subsidies are no longer an option. Current political climate is also going to be much more hostile towards such a thing.

The NHL will take money from Glendale to continue the circus until QC is ready for their team.
And news about Quebec City getting possibly the next relocated team has also been "absent".

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10-19-2011, 02:58 PM
  #54
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And news about Quebec City getting possibly the next relocated team has also been "absent".
If recent events are anything to go by, silence is indeed the best indicator of what is really going on behind the scenes. Chipman found out fast that it pays to shut the hell up and let the league do the dirty work.

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10-19-2011, 03:04 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by MoreOrr View Post
We all remember that video of supposedly Bettman's reaction as he's reading texting about the Thrashers deal to be relocated to Winnipeg. Many people read that as Bettman being unhappy at the news. But we also should remember that Bettman on various ocassions spoke about Winnipeg deserving to get a team again, so now I'm starting to think that he wasn't at all unhappy about Winnipeg getting a team, he was unhappy about it being the Thrashers. .
My impression of that video clip was that Bettman was unhappy the Atlanta-to-Winnipeg news leaked, not that he was unhappy it was happening. I'm sure he was in the loop.

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10-19-2011, 03:11 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Fidel Astro View Post
My impression of that video clip was that Bettman was unhappy the Atlanta-to-Winnipeg news leaked, not that he was unhappy it was happening. I'm sure he was in the loop.
Oh yes, well sure he was in the loop. But keeping it secret would've been a stretch.

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10-19-2011, 03:47 PM
  #57
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I sort of read Bettmans body language & studied reading of the announcement as being conflicted. Delivered in monotone. On the one hand masking resentment (towards ASG) and disappointment (loss of a critical market / for the fans in Georgia). On the other, satisfaction in solving the problem expeditiously, happiness for the fans in Winnipeg, the welcoming of a strong ownership group in Manitoba, the positive optics in returning a team to Canada. Remember, he stated quite clearly that this was a "one off" without any followup pursuant to Phoenix short of the usual that he expects a deal will be done. Im inclined to take him at his word in this instance.

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10-19-2011, 05:35 PM
  #58
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With such a strong Canadian dollar there is added incentive to move the Coyotes back to Canada. Oops. 98.3 US Perhaps continued currency weakness will turn the current south once again.

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10-19-2011, 05:51 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Killion View Post
I sort of read Bettmans body language & studied reading of the announcement as being conflicted. Delivered in monotone. On the one hand masking resentment (towards ASG) and disappointment (loss of a critical market / for the fans in Georgia). On the other, satisfaction in solving the problem expeditiously, happiness for the fans in Winnipeg, the welcoming of a strong ownership group in Manitoba, the positive optics in returning a team to Canada. Remember, he stated quite clearly that this was a "one off" without any followup pursuant to Phoenix short of the usual that he expects a deal will be done. Im inclined to take him at his word in this instance.
I think it was at the announcement that he also stated that not showing up to games was a poor way to show your displeasure with the current situation with any given team.

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10-19-2011, 06:02 PM
  #60
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If only all the issues facing teams, Canadian or not, were currency related.
A lot are. Salaries are paid in USD. Revenues come in at the local currency. As we approach a 10% difference, US teams will have a competitive advantage.

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10-19-2011, 06:09 PM
  #61
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I think it was at the announcement that he also stated that not showing up to games was a poor way to show your displeasure with the current situation with any given team.
What else could he say - stay away and make the owners pay for their poor management? Vilified for over a decade as being the (American, no less) bane of Canadian hockey, he moves a homeless team into Manitoba and becomes St. Bettman of Portage, and all the off color Bettman jokes go right out the window. He gets quoted by those who previously wanted to pillory him as if he were the lord of hockey.

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10-19-2011, 07:25 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Scottrocks58 View Post
A lot are. Salaries are paid in USD. Revenues come in at the local currency. As we approach a 10% difference, US teams will have a competitive advantage.
How so? Canadian teams may make X percent less but making more money doesn't translate into having a better team. Especially in a cap world.


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10-19-2011, 10:58 PM
  #63
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The Coyotes look like they are bound for QC. News out of Glendale has been curiously absent, with no comment from the city or any new developments with the 2 groups supposedly trying to buy the team. Neither group has promised to keep the team in Glendale. Both are going to be looking for significant subsidies. The city has repeatedly stated that said subsidies are no longer an option. Current political climate is also going to be much more hostile towards such a thing.

The NHL will take money from Glendale to continue the circus until QC is ready for their team.
I don't see the final credits rolling after this predicted end. I see a much different finale.

My gut tells me that a transaction will take place to keep the team local. I see the COG bending on its demands for a long term "locked in" lease. They will realize that a little bit of something is much better than a whole lot of nothing. Having a quality owner step in and make a go of it may turn out to supply long term ownership. It may turn out to be a dismal failure and relocation in 5 years. Either scenario is much more appealing than losing the team outright and having laid a 50 million dollar egg over the last two years.

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10-19-2011, 11:22 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Scottrocks58 View Post
What else could he say - stay away and make the owners pay for their poor management? Vilified for over a decade as being the (American, no less) bane of Canadian hockey, he moves a homeless team into Manitoba and becomes St. Bettman of Portage, and all the off color Bettman jokes go right out the window. He gets quoted by those who previously wanted to pillory him as if he were the lord of hockey.
What he was saying was that if you want a team support it regardless...quit blaming bad teams, bad owners, bad locations and bad previous owners.......the blame game stops at the fan support or lack of support.
The message bad fan support sends is that the fans don't care if they have a team. And be real, Phoenix does not have the history of support to stand up and point to Chicago or Pittsburgh, if fact they have a history closer to the fan support in Atlanta.
NO owner is going to look at a history of bad support and think that buying the team is going to translate into anything but a massive loss, and given history, a 5 year rebuild will add up to 150 million more in bad support.....if you think that Winnipeg was simply a move by Bettman to make fans in Winnipeg happy, you are completely and utterly deluded.
If anything that should show fans in Phoenix that you either support what you have, while the situation is resolved, or the league will take whatever steps are needed to resolve it. This is a business, its not an entitlement. IF there is fan support that wants a team, they better show it soon and consistently, forget the myriad of excuses....it's 5 years too late and irrelevant to the solution.
Keep showing any potential owner that there is no real chance of making money, unless he immediately delivers the Stanley Cup, and I can pretty much bet that there will be a final solution that has everything to do with Fan support and little to do with the thought of appeasing fans in another market. Can't make money Phoenix...can make millions in market X...TODAY. Winnipeg is a prime example of making more money in 1 year than they could in Atlanta in perhaps....ever. I suggest Quebec, Hamilton and maybe Seattle would be the very same option for someone wishing to invest 170 million, vs the ongoing support in the form of 30 million in losses that Phoenix provides......where would you invest?


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10-19-2011, 11:36 PM
  #65
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I think the point only stands at a greater variance than 10%. Canadian teams make more money per customer than most US teams. So if the baseline for a Canadian team is Cdn $90-100 million (before playoffs to keep things equal), a 10% variance still keeps them in the respectable range. 20-40% like the bad years of the prior decade..... and yes, we have an issue that is almost strictly currency related.
I agree. The tipping point depends on the franchise.

10% ($0.90) - Ottawa.
20% ($0.80) - Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
30% ($0.70) - Vancouver, Montreal

I am not sure if there is a (reasonable) point where Toronto would be in trouble.

NOTE : Every Canadian knows that Ottawa is a government town and the people who live in the Capital, forgive the stereotype, do not like to pay for anything. That is the reason Ottawa stands at 10%.

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10-19-2011, 11:39 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Scottrocks58 View Post
What else could he say - stay away and make the owners pay for their poor management? Vilified for over a decade as being the (American, no less) bane of Canadian hockey, he moves a homeless team into Manitoba and becomes St. Bettman of Portage, and all the off color Bettman jokes go right out the window. He gets quoted by those who previously wanted to pillory him as if he were the lord of hockey.
He does?


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10-19-2011, 11:47 PM
  #67
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I agree. The tipping point depends on the franchise.

10% ($0.90) - Ottawa.
20% ($0.80) - Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
30% ($0.70) - Vancouver, Montreal

I am not sure if there is a (reasonable) point where Toronto would be in trouble.

NOTE : Every Canadian knows that Ottawa is a government town and the people who live in the Capital, forgive the stereotype, do not like to pay for anything. That is the reason Ottawa stands at 10%.
Building an arena in Kanata instead of Ottawa doesn't help either. It is expensive to drive a car to an arena so far from the fan base.

Teams buy and trade currency all the time. In the long term 10 + years it is an issue for sure but over a 5 year span it is nothing. The newest team in the league has been buying up USD $$$ for years.

I'll place the odds on Jamieson at 45%, Reinsdorf 45% and a currently unknown entity not involving IEH at 10 % in purchasing and keeping the Coyotes in Glendale with all parties having a 7 year out-clause and $25 million per year in arena management fees. Just a guess.

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10-19-2011, 11:48 PM
  #68
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I agree. The tipping point depends on the franchise.

10% ($0.90) - Ottawa.
20% ($0.80) - Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
30% ($0.70) - Vancouver, Montreal

I am not sure if there is a (reasonable) point where Toronto would be in trouble.

NOTE : Every Canadian knows that Ottawa is a government town and the people who live in the Capital, forgive the stereotype, do not like to pay for anything. That is the reason Ottawa stands at 10%.
Well, that last bits gonna put you in real solid with the innumerable posters from Ottawa to Calabogie Peaks Kevy. Better pull out the galoshes & yellow slicker before it really starts to pour... As for the rest; 3 words - Canadian Equalization Payments. The NHL is a collective, a "hive". Whether its Revenue Sharing or Jeremy Jacobs supplying Dixie Cups & hot dogs in Nashville for the next 35yrs from the inside out this is generally a group that protects itself from the vagaries & fluctuations in the US Greenback or Canadian Loonie


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10-19-2011, 11:54 PM
  #69
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Well, that last bits gonna put you in real solid with the innumerable posters from Ottawa to Calabogie Peaks Kevy.
Hey! I lived in Ottawa for years. I was a huge Rough Rider fan. Then again, look who I am talking to... Killion, the biggest CFL fan of them all.

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Better pull out the galoshes & yellow slicker before it really starts to pour... As for the rest; 3 words - Canadian Equalization Payments. The NHL is a collective, a "hive". Whether its Revenue Sharing or Jeremy Jacobs supplying Dixie Cups & hot dogs in Nashville for the next 35yrs this is generally a group that protects itself from the vagaries & fluctuations in the US Greenback or Canadian Loonie.
Actually, you have a point. My percentages better represent the NHL prior to the current CBA.

My guess, the next CBA will provide more currency protection for teams on both sides of the border.

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10-19-2011, 11:56 PM
  #70
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keeping the Coyotes in Glendale with all parties having a 7 year out-clause and $25 million per year in arena management fees. Just a guess.
If it was me I wouldn't go for anything longer than 5 years but you are probably right.


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10-20-2011, 01:48 AM
  #71
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I'll place the odds on Jamieson at 45%, Reinsdorf 45% and a currently unknown entity not involving IEH at 10 % in purchasing and keeping the Coyotes in Glendale with all parties having a 7 year out-clause and $25 million per year in arena management fees. Just a guess.
According to the article about the mayoral candidate http://www.azcentral.com/community/g...candidacy.html

Quote:
Along with the mayor's post, three council seats will be on the ballot. They include Joyce Clark in the Yucca District, Phil Lieberman in the Cactus District and Steve Frate in Sahuaro District
How did those 3 vote on the $25 million handouts? That could make a difference. I'm also getting the impression from this thread that there won't be any more handouts, even if the entire city council remains unchanged.

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10-20-2011, 04:31 AM
  #72
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7 of the 30 teams are now Canadian...and that number may rise...the 7 Canadian teams represent well over 30% of league revenues....and a major decrease in the Canadian dollar will also decrease league revenues which will lower the salary cap. Chipman mentioned in an interview that the Canadian teams are hedged so the losses from a large decrease in the dollar will be less than people expect. Also remember that a good chunk of revenue that Canadian teams receive is already in US dollars from merchandise and national tv deals which are evenly distributed between all teams.

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10-20-2011, 04:45 AM
  #73
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kevy, i know this is irrelevant to this phoenix discussion, but i fail to see how ottawa is in any way more vunerable than edmonton or winnipeg, especially considering ottawa has the owners and arena that both those markets wish they had.

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10-20-2011, 08:06 AM
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kevy, i know this is irrelevant to this phoenix discussion, but i fail to see how ottawa is in any way more vunerable than edmonton or winnipeg, especially considering ottawa has the owners and arena that both those markets wish they had.
lets see the jets have the richest family in canada and one of the richest in the world as co-owners of the team, a paid off arena thats one of the bussiest in north america in a prime location in the city, sold out games for 3-5 years. yeah we really wish we had your owners.

i just dont understand statements like this.


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10-20-2011, 09:29 AM
  #75
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kevy, i know this is irrelevant to this phoenix discussion, but i fail to see how ottawa is in any way more vunerable than edmonton or winnipeg, especially considering ottawa has the owners and arena that both those markets wish they had.
I agree with the bolded, but here we go anyways....
For the underlined.. Really? an arena that's too big (can be (right now is) on the wrong side of the supply demand curves) in the wrong location (way in the wrong location).

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lets see the jets have the richest family in canada and one of the richest in the world as co-owners of the team, a paid off arena thats one of the bussiest in north america in a prime location in the city, sold out games for 3-5 years. yeah we really wish we had your owners.

i just dont understand statements like this.
For the bolded, very true, best owners in the league. For the underlined, I don't believe that to be true unless you can provide a link.

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