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When does the hole we've dug become too big

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Old
10-25-2011, 05:07 AM
  #1
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When does the hole we've dug become too big

Let me start by saying I don't intend for this to be a negative nancy thread. I'm only interested in the numbers regarding our win/loss record.

How long before this is too big to recover, it's only 8 games, but 1 5 2 is horrible, we're giving away vital points. Are we there yet?

If we lose 2 out of 3 vs Bos, Bos, Phi, are we there yet? Anyone have the numbers on deficits teams have climbed back into the race from. Buffalo started bad last year if my memory serves, were they this bad early on?

I never thought this discussion would happen 10 games into the season, but it just might.


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10-25-2011, 05:22 AM
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Qui Gon Dave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Let me start by saying I don't intend for this to be a negative nancy thread. I'm only interested in the numbers regarding our win/loss record.

How long before this is too big to recover, it's only 10 games, but 1 7 2 is horrible, we're giving away vital points. Are we there yet?

If we lose 2 out of 3 vs Bos, Bos, Phi, are we there yet? Anyone have the numbers on deficits teams have climbed back into the race from. Buffalo started bad last year if my memory serves, were they this bad early on?
What is this, a holiday road trip?

Buffalo started 3-6-1 last year (7-11-2 after 20 games). Link

I'm not sure at what point we couldn't recover though.

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10-25-2011, 05:23 AM
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This was New Jersey's record in the first three months...

October: 3-8-1
November: 5-7-0
December: 2-11-0

Currently we are: 1-5-2

So yeah... that hole is pretty deep. We have three more tries to not emulate the Devils in October. I'd say by mid November though, unless things have turned around. We've dug our own grave.

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10-25-2011, 05:34 AM
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85% of teams in the bottom 9 to 15 in the conference do not make it to the playoffs come April so there is your answer.

Also, if you ask me (new coach or not) this team is not going to win the Cup this year so why finish 8th and lose to Washington or Pittsburgh?

Lastly, at this point I am sick of seeing bums like Scott Gomez play in this city, we need Alex Galchenyuk!!!

6'2" and 190 pound centre that was born in the United States and will play in the USA system and NOT Russian, check out the write up about hime below:

Quote:
Since being selected first overall in the 2010 OHL Priority Selection, Alex Galchenyuk has had a lot of pressure on him to perform at an elite level. So far, he's doing just fine. In his rookie year in the OHL, Galchenyuk tallied 83 points in 68 games for the Sarnia Sting, scoring 31 goals. The 6'2 teenage star is certain to go very high in the 2012 NHL Draft, and grab another load of very high expectations in the process.

Born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Galchenyuk was drafted into the OHL from the Chicago Young Americans after absolutely dominating the league, scoring 87 points in just 38 games. Galchenyuk has lived in four countries so far, including Germany, Italy, and Russia. His father was a veteran of the Russian Super League, and Alex moved around a lot. The family moved to Chicago to allow Galchenyuk to be eligible to play in the OHL, and so far it appears to be paying off. He will be playing alongside fellow top prospect Nail Yakupov again in Sarnia during the 2011-2012 OHL season, and many people are excited to see the two top last seasons outstanding performance. Former NHL star Igor Larionov has compared Alex Galchenyuk to Marian Hossa, and believes, along with the majority of hockey scouts, that Galchenyuk has a bright hockey future ahead of him. Galchenyuk has top-notch skill, including outstanding goal scoring ability, and the NHL team that selects him in the 2012 NHL Draft will be selecting what could potentially be a future All-Star for many years to come.

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10-25-2011, 05:40 AM
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I ran the numbers in the PGT last night and found that post-lockout, only one of the nine teams that got off to a 4-point start after 8 games recovered to make the playoffs. On the flip side, two of the nine went on to finish dead last, and Edmonton finished dead last in 10/11 despite getting 6 points in their first 8.

I'm not exactly sure when the hole becomes a grave for the season, but I don't think it's very far away. If they rack up 2 or even 3 losses in the games remaining this month it's probably over.

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10-25-2011, 05:42 AM
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With Pacioretty joining Gomez on the injury list it certainly doesn't look good for a playoff spot. By the end of October our chances of getting into the playoffs will be gone if we drop these next three games which is quite likely.Either way the Habs get a high draft pick in a deep draft or they scrape into ninth in the east.High draft pick Lottery preferred.

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10-25-2011, 06:06 AM
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Players I want to finish at the bottom for:

Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Alex Galchenyuk, Mikhail Grigorenko or Filip Forsberg

Personally, I want Alex Galchenyuk or Ryan Murray!

Imagine a future on defense like:

Subban, Weber, Tinordi, Beaulieu and Murray?

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10-25-2011, 06:08 AM
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Only 4 points out of a playoff spot...

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10-25-2011, 06:10 AM
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Montreal was 5 games under 500 about half way through the season in 2009-2010 then ended up going to the Eastern Conference Finals. We're 4 points out of a playoff spot. Relax.

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10-25-2011, 06:28 AM
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I know a couple of times now comparisons have been made to the 2009 - 2010 season and while it's nice to say the Habs were in somewhat the same boat there are some differences.

The season started and the team faced the first Markov major injury. And everything was new: owners, coaches, players, system. Things were a mess but certain players stepped up and although they struggled they maintained a close to .500 record. Other injuries ensued: O'Byrne, Gill, Gomez, Gionta, Mara. The D was depleted. Somehow they righted the ship and squeaked into the playoffs. One big difference was an early road trip to the West where the Habs don't fair so well anyway. The media and fans supported this team more because of the effort by a select few.

This year nobody seems to be stepping up big time on the back end and there hasn't been an overwhelming force up front. Well except Moen. LOL And the Habs are dropping games to the lesser quality teams in the league. They haven't had a significant road trip yet. The record is horrific at home where you expect to have an advantage. This team has been playing the same system and there are not as many new faces. And I would venture to say this version of the struggling Habs will not get a better Markov than what they had in 2009 - 2010 if in fact he comes back at all.

So while a comparison can be made in terms of points to the 2009 - 2010 season there are some major differences that I can see. A lot of teams improved. I just don't like the outlook.

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10-25-2011, 06:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CGG View Post
Montreal was 5 games under 500 about half way through the season in 2009-2010 then ended up going to the Eastern Conference Finals. We're 4 points out of a playoff spot. Relax.
Yeah, all we need is to get back Halak to stand on his head again.

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10-25-2011, 06:37 AM
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Originally Posted by optimus2861 View Post
I ran the numbers in the PGT last night and found that post-lockout, only one of the nine teams that got off to a 4-point start after 8 games recovered to make the playoffs. On the flip side, two of the nine went on to finish dead last, and Edmonton finished dead last in 10/11 despite getting 6 points in their first 8.

I'm not exactly sure when the hole becomes a grave for the season, but I don't think it's very far away. If they rack up 2 or even 3 losses in the games remaining this month it's probably over.
Seems about right, so what are the options if we continue downhill? Do we chalk it up as bad luck and hope for better next year, or do we make significant moves towards the future by unloading the bad contracts ect?

It's going to be interesting, I don't think we're out of it yet, the team has actually played alot better than their record indicates, but I don't believe it's all bad luck, no one else seems to get hit with this bad luck monster, year after year, as we do. Maybe the players we are icing are part of the problem?

We have no game breaking talent who can get this team going and carry them on his back. We have all the complimentary players, but we need a game changer imo.

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10-25-2011, 06:40 AM
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Originally Posted by CGG View Post
Montreal was 5 games under 500 about half way through the season in 2009-2010 then ended up going to the Eastern Conference Finals. We're 4 points out of a playoff spot. Relax.
I'm not unrelaxed lol. Only attempting to be realistic, I know, I know it's only 8 games, but my question was if it continues where do you draw the line?

It's easy to bury your head in the sand and pretend this isn't a hole, but the reality is, it is.

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10-25-2011, 06:54 AM
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I'm not unrelaxed lol. Only attempting to be realistic, I know, I know it's only 8 games, but my question was if it continues where do you draw the line?

It's easy to bury your head in the sand and pretend this isn't a hole, but the reality is, it is.
15 games

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10-25-2011, 06:57 AM
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Seems about right, so what are the options if we continue downhill? Do we chalk it up as bad luck and hope for better next year, or do we make significant moves towards the future by unloading the bad contracts etc?
Way too early to gut the team; if these next 3 games don't turn out well, Martin has to walk the plank. Despite the dire start, I don't believe this team is as bad as the results show nor is it absolutely too late to salvage the year. The Devils waited too long to wield the axe last year and it cost them.

I don't know who the new coach should be, or who could turn this thing around, but it's the only way to change the play of the team with a single move.

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10-25-2011, 06:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
15 games
I agree Andy, 15-20 games. I'm not even stating we're playing poorly. I'm just trying to be realistic to get to a point where the numbers simply won't compute.

Whether we've been good and unlucky or bad and unlucky isn't my contention here. I think the team has played pretty good and been mostly unfortunate to this point, but will that matter if we can't get out of the funk, no matter the reasons? If we don't, what do we do, keep the same team and hope for a better fate next year?

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10-25-2011, 07:00 AM
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Are we the 2010-2011 Devils?

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10-25-2011, 07:00 AM
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Well last needed 93 points too make the playoffs. We can start with that number. (Might need more this year)
We have 4 in 8 games so we need 89 more in 74 games.
89 out of a possible 148= 60.1% of all possible points.
Last year 96 out of 164=59%
We are not done yet.

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10-25-2011, 07:01 AM
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I wonder if we could sell off enough of our players then package all those picks, if we that could lead us to another top ten pick. Odds are we could never get two top five picks but with Galchenyuk's result season ending injury, his stock might drop. We could grab both him and Yakupov with some careful maneuvering.

Wishful thinking but hey, why not? It's a long season.

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10-25-2011, 07:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I agree Andy, 15-20 games. I'm not even stating we're playing poorly. I'm just trying to be realistic to get to a point where the numbers simply won't compute.

Whether we've been good and unlucky or bad and unlucky isn't my contention here. I think the team has played pretty good and been mostly unfortunate to this point, but will that matter if we can't get out of the funk, no matter the reasons? If we don't, what do we do, keep the same team and hope for a better fate next year?
Same it's odd. I just really can't say anything. I don't want to jump on either side because the play I see on the ice and the record just don't reflect each other at all outside of 1-2 games.


If the same happens at the 15 game mark, well then bad luck or not, you work with the cards your dealt and you move pieces appropriately to increase your chances in the future.

I really do think the Colorado game and the Buffalo game ****ed this team over. There was no reason to lose those games, but we did. It made them question their ability and made the coach panic. We win those two games and we're 3-2 and times are okay. Two games we shouldn't have lost turn everything to ****.

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10-25-2011, 07:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
I wonder if we could sell off enough of our players then package all those picks, if we that could lead us to another top ten pick. Odds are we could never get two top five picks but with Galchenyuk's result season ending injury, his stock might drop. We could grab both him and Yakupov with some careful maneuvering.

Wishful thinking but hey, why not? It's a long season.
Great idea. Draft blown out knee Galchenyuk. Would fit right in

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10-25-2011, 07:12 AM
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Same it's odd. I just really can't say anything. I don't want to jump on either side because the play I see on the ice and the record just don't reflect each other at all outside of 1-2 games.


If the same happens at the 15 game mark, well then bad luck or not, you work with the cards your dealt and you move pieces appropriately to increase your chances in the future.

I really do think the Colorado game and the Buffalo game ****ed this team over. There was no reason to lose those games, but we did. It made them question their ability and made the coach panic. We win those two games and we're 3-2 and times are okay. Two games we shouldn't have lost turn everything to ****.
I agree with everything here. I'm kinda baffled at the moment that we have the record we do, not sure what to make of it. I think we deserve better, but the upcoming games are only going to get tougher. Hopefully we respond.

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10-25-2011, 07:17 AM
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Watch us end up at the bottom of the standings, draft 4th overall or something and get an undersized American

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10-25-2011, 07:18 AM
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Are we the 2010-2011 Devils?
Or the 2006/2007 Flyers

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10-25-2011, 07:19 AM
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Andy
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Watch us end up at the bottom of the standings, draft 4th overall or something and get an undersized American
Like Parise?

its funny because Yakupov in 5'10.

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