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MLD2011 Finals - Eden Hall Warriors vs Regina Capitals

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Old
09-12-2011, 08:16 AM
  #176
VanIslander
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09-12-2011, 08:36 AM
  #177
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Thank you VanI and thank you to Dave for collecting votes. Seventies, you built one hell of a defensive team and I expected exactly what it was: a seven game series which could go either way.

Congrats TDMM as well.

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09-12-2011, 10:26 AM
  #178
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good work guys. I feel like both teams deserved to win, but that obviously couldn't happen so it's just as well that you take the MLD crown. No problems with it whatsoever, we both had our cases to make and you guys came out on top. Really can't wait to see where all our players get selected next time, particularly the defensemen. We did good work here. A well-deserved win, and copious amounts of kudos to you.

(Dave, I'm curious how many people took the time to vote this time, since we only had six votes last round, and three people who voted the whole way through were involved in this series.)

AAA october 1st, perhaps?

I still have comments to make on this series, lol

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09-12-2011, 10:39 AM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Off the top of my head, Sergei Babinov and Al Hamilton also played in the 70s and were probably better than Gibbs.
sorry, meant to say “in the 1970s in the NHL”. Babinov would be really difficult to compare, I’d probably have to speculate on where he ranked within USSR on a year-to-year basis and try to translate that to an NHL equivalent, it would be ad-hoc at best) TBH, I can’t imagine how after what I said about Hamilton you’d still think he was “probably” better than Gibbs.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
If Gibbs was a "defensive defenseman," why are most of the quotes in your profile about his puck rushing? Can you point me to a quote that indicates he was thought of primarily as a defensive guy?
Gibbs was ok, but not great offensively. I don’t believe that he earned his minutes for offensive reasons. He was not in on a huge percentage of ES or PP goals that he was on the ice for. With his physicality, PIM totals, minutes and quotes like “impossible to beat one on one” It appears clear to me that his value was defensive.

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Problematic if you don't have a guy who can take faceoffs on each PK pairing.
Yeah, I fixed that.

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How about just being a lot more talented offensively than Gibbs? I mean, it's not conclusive, but I would definitely rather have Sullivan on the point of the PP than Gibbs.
You bet it’s not conclusive! I mean, we don’t just put 5 forwards on the PP because they’re all better offensively than any of our defensemen – right?

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You have Tucker on the 3rd unit now. Who can take faceoffs on the 2nd unit?
Yeah, sorry. Boutette played a lot of center. He and Tucker are pretty much the epitomy of 3-position MLD forward, in that they played all three in relatively equal proportions.

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Maybe Gibbs' coaches went back to him more because there was no better option? 10% worse than league average is terrible and really shows how imbalanced things were in the 1970s (and why we should question whether simply being first in overall ice time on a mediocre team in the 70s is actually impressive).
then it could be argued that, relative to league balance, 10% below average is similar to 3% below in the 1985-1995 era.

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I don't see anything here to indicate that Gibbs was better on the PK than Butcher. He got a small number of all star votes twice (never Norris votes) in the watered-down 1970s because of his overall game, not his defensive game.
The difference in usage is huge. 39% is not far off from “just his share” which would be 33%. 51% puts Gibbs in a very high tier for PK usage, team performance doesn’t wipe that edge out IMO.

Gibbs was only 10th-16th in points, with percentages in the 50-60% range, so I don’t think it was offense that convinced a handful of writers that he had a top-3 season. He was also nowhere near the top-10 offensively when Cliff Fletcher called him a top-10 defenseman in the league.

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Also, if anyone thinks a good PP needs someone to muck things up in front of the net, then Regina lacks that on the first unit.
really depends on the PP strategy, though. I don’t see it as 100% essential.

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That's very good (though not great) for this level definitely. Can he take faceoffs?
No, as far as I know Grier is as single-position as it gets. I never tried to sell him as anything else, though :p

-----------------

at some point today I am still going to throw together a comparison of those 13 1970s NHL defensemen

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09-12-2011, 11:19 AM
  #180
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Cool. Thanks, guys.

Funny that the two goalies ranked so high in the "stars of the series" when we barely talked about them.

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09-12-2011, 11:22 AM
  #181
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Re: Butcher's 39% PKing, do you have season-by-season stats on his PK usage? Because he started off his career as a bottom pairing guy, basically a goon who developed into a good niche defensive defenseman. So if he barely PKed at the beginning of his career, that would skew his career average (I prefer to judge players based on what they did during their primes).

Butcher's weird. We drafted him as a compromise, lost respect for him as the draft went on, then gained a bunch again. Definitely a niche player like you said.

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09-12-2011, 02:22 PM
  #182
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Congrats guys on a great series, and October 1st for the AAA Draft is good with me!

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09-12-2011, 06:31 PM
  #183
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Congrats to TDMM and vecens on their win. I didn't vote as I was away on vacation for the past couple weeks. I'm free for the foreseeable future so I will be entering the AAA draft after the positive reception I got to my first team I drafted on my own.

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Old
10-27-2011, 12:40 AM
  #184
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Seventies' 70s Defensemen Analysis, as promised

These are the 13 defensemen from MLD2011, who played most of their careers in the NHL in the 1970s, and here are some stats and facts about them:

Player GP TOI/G peak TOI ESTOI/G
GIBBS, BARRY D 792 25.17 26.75 21.14
SARGENT, GARY D 402 25.11 26.66 20.03
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN D 571 24.56 25.86 19.82
TALLON, DALE D 510 24.26 24.37 19.42
MURDOCH, BOB D 757 23.69 25.76 20.04
MANERY, RANDY D 582 23.63 24.13 19.11
BROWN, ARNIE D 681 22.93 23.2 20.12
MARSHALL, BERT D 868 22.46 23.44 18.88
PLAGER, BOB D 615 22.41 23.59 19.09
BLADON, TOM D 610 21.32 22.04 17.23
SMITH, RICK D 687 20.81 23.39 18.11
LEWIS, DAVE D 1008 19.85 20.98 17.33
HUTCHISON, DAVE D 584 16.7 18.73 15.17

- peak TOI/GP = average icetime in the player's most flattering consecutive six-year period.

- all TOI figures include post-expansion only, which means Arnie Brown and Bert Marshall miss having a few seasons properly captured.

As you can see, Gibbs leads in all TOI categories, despite being 3rd in GP.

Player Recognition
GIBBS, BARRY 1972 13th AS, ASG. 1973 11th AS
SARGENT, GARY 1978 9th nor, 12th AS, 1976 USA 2nd mvp, 1980 ASG
MURDOCH, BOB 1975 11th AS, ASG
BLADON, TOM 1977 14th AS, ASG, 1978 ASG
TALLON, DALE 1971 ASG, 1972 ASG, 1972 SS camp
BROWN, ARNIE 1967 11th AS
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN 1972 SS camp, 1974 ASG
MANERY, RANDY 1973 ASG
MARSHALL, BERT NIL
PLAGER, BOB NIL
SMITH, RICK NIL
LEWIS, DAVE NIL
HUTCHISON, DAVE NIL

- recognition: short list of the seasons in which the player earned some recognition, sorted in order of overall prestige.

It's hard to argue that Gibbs' cabinet of trophy shares is less impressive than any of these other players.

Player 1 1-450 1-550 1-650 2 2-450 2-550 2-650 3 3-450 3-550 3-650 sum
GIBBS, BARRY 9 5 1 0 9 5 1 0 10 6 1 0 47
MURDOCH, BOB 3 3 1 1 5 5 2 1 7 7 3 1 39
MARSHALL, BERT 0 0 0 0 5 3 3 1 10 5 3 2 32
PLAGER, BOB 1 1 0 0 4 4 1 0 8 6 2 0 27
BLADON, TOM 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 3 22
MANERY, RANDY 2 1 0 0 5 4 0 0 5 4 0 0 21
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN 2 0 0 0 4 1 1 1 5 2 2 2 20
BROWN, ARNIE 1 1 1 0 3 2 0 0 5 3 3 0 19
LEWIS, DAVE 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 19
SARGENT, GARY 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 3 1 0 18
SMITH, RICK 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 2 2 12
TALLON, DALE 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 10
HUTCHISON, DAVE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2

- 1, 2, 3 = number of seasons spent as a #1, #1/2, #1/2/3 defenseman based on icetime regardless of team win%

- 1-450, 1-550, 1-650, 2-450, 2-550, 2-650, 3-450, 3-550, 3-650 = number of seasons spent as a #1, #1/2, #1/2/3 for a team that meets that win% threshold

- total: the simple sum of the above numbers. basically it makes being a #1 for a sub-.450 team worth three points, with three bonus points for meeting each three win% threshold. A #2 for a poor team would thus earn two points, and two bonus for each season meeting each threshold and so on. You may interpret the results as you wish; this total is one suggested way.

Gibbs easily leads in more categories than anyone else, and IMO has the best overall results.

Player beat ATDer beat by nobody spread
BLADON, TOM 12 2 10
GIBBS, BARRY 9 2 7
BROWN, ARNIE 9 4 5
MURDOCH, BOB 3 0 3
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN 4 1 3
TALLON, DALE 4 3 1
PLAGER, BOB 4 4 0
SARGENT, GARY 2 2 0
SMITH, RICK 3 3 0
MANERY, RANDY 0 6 -6
MARSHALL, BERT 0 8 -8
LEWIS, DAVE 4 13 -9
HUTCHISON, DAVE 0 15 -15

- beat ATDer: number of instances of playing exclusively with one team for 40+ games with an ATD2011 defenseman, and exceeding them in TOI

- beat by nobody: number of instances of playing exclusively with one team for 40+ games with a defenseman not drafted as of cumulative selection 1580, and being exceeded by them in TOI

- spread: the former minus the latter

Gibbs completes his streak of being the only player to look good by every metric by finishing 2nd here. It should be noted that Bladon was in an interesting situation in Philadelphia, where the top-5 defensemen often were within 2 minutes of eachother so he often topped Dupont or Van Impe by 30 seconds or so. Gibbs was topping ATDers by 3 minutes. His only two instances in the second column are from his last season.

conclusion: Gibbs was the best 1970s NHL defenseman selected in the MLD. You'd have to massively overstate the value of Lewis' higher GP total, Murdoch's 1975 season as #1 on a suddenly excellent LA team, Marshall and Lewis' combined three years as the #2 on an excellent surging Isles squad, or Bladon's slightly misleading TOI compared to his ATD teammates, to disagree.

(as for others, Al Hamilton was definitely not better and as for Babinov, your guess is as good as mine, he did make USSR's top-13-16 defensemen five straight years from 1975-1979 but was not an all-star and got no MVP votes, but he was usually on the national team so 5th-10th in USSR is a good starting point, now try to translate that to NHL value if you dare)

If you believe that the 70s were already grossly overrepresented as of the start of the MLD, then it does not have to follow that Gibbs is a legitimate #1-2 MLD defenseman. You could simply claim that even though he was the best left in this decade, there were plenty of better options, even the 5th-10th-best guys left from other decades.

However, if you believe that all eras were reasonably represented in proportion to their competition quality as of the start of the MLD, then the "next best" of each era would be the guys who are deserving #1-2 MLD defensemen. Gibbs is exactly that. I see no reason to believe any era was particularly over- or under-represented heading in.

I had fun doing this. It is a good thing I am already settled down with a wife.


Last edited by seventieslord: 10-27-2011 at 12:45 AM.
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Old
10-27-2011, 12:55 AM
  #185
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I think 70s NHL players probably are the most overdrafted players in the ATD, actually. I would not be surprised if they were drafted more than NHL players from any other decade, despite the fact that so much of the world's talent was in the WHA or Europe at the time.

Gibbs is certainly among the best 70s era defensemen in this draft (along with Sargent actually), for whatever that means. The fact that clearly superior defensemen from the 80s (O'Connell and Roberts), 90s (none in this series but I think Brewer would qualify) and 00s (Campbell) were still available does tend to show that the 70s guys were overfarmed in the main draft.

PS. I'm still not convinced Al Hamilton was worse than Gibbs...

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10-27-2011, 12:59 AM
  #186
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think 70s NHL players probably are the most overdrafted players in the ATD, actually. I would not be surprised if they were drafted more than NHL players from any other decade, despite the fact that so much of the world's talent was in the WHA or Europe at the time.
I've been meaning to take my atd sheet and maybe add a column for "career midpoint" or something, so I could watch trends as the draft develops.

If what I think about the talent pool is representative of what happens in the draft, then the number of players drafted by decade should start to resemble that curve I showed you before.

I think there are many more 80s and 90s players drafted (and there should be) but the difference is more or less correct and proportional.

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Gibbs is certainly among the best 70s-era NHLers in this draft (along with Sargent actually), for whatever that means. The fact that clearly superior defensemen from the 80s (O'Connell and Roberts), 90s (none in this series but I think Brewer would qualify) and 00s (Campbell) does tend to show that the 70s guys were overfarmed in the main draft.
heh. I feel..... a little vindicated just to read that

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PS. I'm still not convinced Al Hamilton was worse than Gibbs...
ugh... well then draft him next time and we will have at it. I doubt you'd have the energy to do it otherwise. I don't think I would!

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10-27-2011, 01:12 AM
  #187
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I've been meaning to take my atd sheet and maybe add a column for "career midpoint" or something, so I could watch trends as the draft develops.
I would be really interested in the results. IMO, the 70s are probably traditionally overrated for a few reasons:

1) The "older is better / Golden Age of Hockey is golden" GMs really love 50s-70s players. There aren't as many of them now, but they are the guys who really set the original ATD canon.

2) pre-expansion, you just ran out of guys. After 1967, there are so many more players with decent NHL careers to draft.

3) the talent pool in the 70s NHL wasn't actually better than before 1967. In fact, once the WHA came about, it was actually worse - spread out among 2 then 3 times as many teams.

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If what I think about the talent pool is representative of what happens in the draft, then the number of players drafted by decade should start to resemble that curve I showed you before.
I forget the exact curve, but yes, basically. I think it should slope up sharply throughout the 70s - but the added players should be mostly European, not North American guys.

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I think there are many more 80s and 90s players drafted (and there should be) but the difference is more or less correct and proportional.
In past drafts, I thought the 90s were vastly underrated in ATDs - you had guys like Paul Kariya going 100s of spots under guys like Sid Smith FFS. I think it has basically corrected by this past draft, at least among forwards. It's the post-lockout guys who became overrated, not the 90s guys.

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heh. I feel..... a little vindicated just to read that
Honestly, I didn't enjoy constantly trashing Gibbs - it was by far my the least enjoyable part of the MLD for me - but I pretty much was forced to do it. He was the least good member of either team's top 4 I thought.

I had to keep harping on him because a certain nonparticipant felt the need to troll the hell out of Brian Campbell while pointing out that he didn't actually care how he compared to anyone else in this draft. So I felt that I had to keep reminding people that despite Campbell's flaws, the only thing that mattered was how he compared to his Regina counterpart(s).

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ugh... well then draft him next time and we will have at it. I doubt you'd have the energy to do it otherwise. I don't think I would!
Eh, we'll see.

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10-27-2011, 01:17 AM
  #188
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
3) the talent pool in the 70s NHL wasn't actually better than before 1967. In fact, once the WHA came about, it was actually worse - spread out among 2 then 3 times as many teams.
I see no reason to believe the talent pool itself was worse. I am sure it got bigger/better from the 60s to the 70s, just like it did from the 70s to the 80s and so on. Yes, obviously it was very spread out, mainly thanks to the WHA and fast expansion. This just means that the worst players were at an all-time low in terms of skill but should not affect the number of players worthy of an ATD/MLD.

your other two reasons are bang on though.

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10-27-2011, 01:20 AM
  #189
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I see no reason to believe the talent pool itself was worse. I am sure it got bigger/better from the 60s to the 70s, just like it did from the 70s to the 80s and so on. Yes, obviously it was very spread out, mainly thanks to the WHA and fast expansion. This just means that the worst players were at an all-time low in terms of skill but should not affect the number of players worthy of an ATD/MLD.

your other two reasons are bang on though.
I think the North American talent pool has slowly increased over time, but IMO, the WHA siphoned off more good players than the slightly increased talent pool could make up for. So the NHL-only talent pool was probably weaker in the 70s than in the 60s (or at any other time since World War 2).

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10-27-2011, 09:37 AM
  #190
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I dunno, take the 1975 NHL and distill it back to a six-team league, I think you find that the worst players are better than their 60s counterparts, but I may be wrong.

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