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Old
10-27-2011, 02:26 PM
  #1
Beacon
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Draft Need

The more I think about things, the more I realize how desperate we are for a right wing in the first round next year. Our right wing depth right now is downright pathetic. We have two high-risk, high-reward guys in Thomas and Fasth, as well as McColgan, who has a lot more hockey to play before he's seen as a quality prospect.

Gaborik's contract is ending in another 2.5 years, and Prust will be gone by the time our 2012 prospects are ready to be NHL regulars.

Callahan will be 27 by the next draft. A prospect takes 5-7 years to develop. Yes, I know that the most common answer people here give on when a prospect will be ready is 2 years, 3-4 if it's a major project like McIlrath. Some of the more optimistic people always think that first rounders will make it by the time they are 19. With rare exceptions, it takes MUCH longer than that.

Callahan didn't score above 0.5 points per game until he was 25. He was 23 by the time he was even a quality third liner. Dubinsky made the NHL at 21 and also took 2 more years to become a second liner.

This is more or less normal progression. It takes 3-5 years to establish yourself as an NHL regular and another couple of years to become a quality top-6 player. The usual exceptions to this rule are guys who were drafted in the top-10. It's highly unlikely we'll get a draft pick that early unless we have a horrible year, below all expectations. Yes, there are other exceptions, but those guys are just that: exceptions. To expect someone to reach his max potential when he's only 20-21 is just not realistic.

The truth is that if we draft a RW, it would not be to replace Gaborik. By the time the 2012 draft rolls around, Gaborik will be 30. Even if our draftee becomes a top-6 forward, which is not guaranteed at all, it will take 5-7 years, until he's 23-25 years old. Gabby's contract ends in 2014, long before the draftee will be ready. We just have to hope that either Fasth or Thomas can step up by then.

In fact, the 2012 draftee would likely be a replacement for Callahan. Yes, that's right, Callahan.

By the time our 2012 draftee will be 23-25 years old, Callahan will be around 33 years of age. Assuming he's still playing at that age, Callahan will already likely be on a down swing and will be more suited to third line duty.

We need a RW. Actually, if possible to find quality guys, I'd like a right wing in both first and second rounds because there's no guarantee our first rounder makes it.

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10-27-2011, 02:29 PM
  #2
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I don't think we need anything specific. Best player available for this draft IMO, leaning toward forward.

There is always the UFA market to pick up a good RWer (if not this year, the next year, or the year after).

Lets not forget Jagr will be available in July

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10-27-2011, 02:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike1983 View Post
I don't think we need anything specific. Best player available for this draft IMO, leaning toward forward.

I get that you always go for BPA. Who knows what your need will be in half a dozen years. But if the players are about even, we should go for a RW. It's clearly the one place where we need the most help.

We'll be ok on defense. We have 6 young and relatively young defensemen on the squad now, plus McIlrath and lesser prospects like Noreau coming up the pipes.

We have a lot of young centers: Stepan, Anisimov, Boyle, Lindberg and even lesser guys like Yogan, Fogarty like St. Croix. We should be good here.

At LW, we have Dubi, Kreider, Miller, Bourque, Hagelin and Grant. This position should hopefully resolve itself.

What do we have at RW? The hope that both Fasth and Thomas become top-6 forwards? And if it doesn't work out?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike1983 View Post
There is always the UFA market to pick up a good RWer (if not this year, the next year, or the year after).

Lets not forget Jagr will be available in July
I hate signing UFAs unless absolutely necessary because they cost so much and you don't know how they will work out. Remember Robitaille? He was a 44-63 goal scorer every year before coming to the Rangers and then was a complete flop. And who says we actually have a chance to sign a star UFA? It's not as if they are available any time you want.

A home grown guy will be cheaper and better. I am not saying that drafting a kid guarantees anything because clearly it does not. But we need to take a flyer on someone to try to fill this hole. I don't like seeing a wide, gaping hole in our future, with no plan to deal with it other than to hope that a UFA will become available and we will be the ones to outbid everyone else to sign him.

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10-27-2011, 02:39 PM
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Best. Player. Available.

Especially in the first round. You draft for need in the middle and late rounds. Period.

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10-27-2011, 02:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I Eat Crow View Post
Best. Player. Available.

Especially in the first round. You draft for need in the middle and late rounds. Period.

If there's a guy who clearly stands out as superior to all others, then yes, go for that guy. But usually, you are ok drafting a few guys.

In 2009, the Rangers were ok with either Erixon or Kreider, but because they needed a scoring forward more than a two-way defenseman, the Rangers went for Kreider. That's what I mean here.

Obviously when the Devils had a chance to draft Larsson, they got him even though they need forwards much more than defensemen. But I'm assuming there won't be such a clear-cut favorite.

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10-27-2011, 02:44 PM
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Miller can play all three forward positions.

But, I don't disagree.

And my early favorite remains Nicolas Kerdiles.

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10-27-2011, 02:52 PM
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There are about 20-30 legitimate forward prospects across all 30 teams. The fact that we, or any other team, isn't stacked at all 3 forward positions shouldn't shock you.

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10-27-2011, 03:00 PM
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I do not think Prust is going anywhere. Our left wing depth is more of an issue imo

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10-27-2011, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MSG the place to be View Post
There are about 20-30 legitimate forward prospects across all 30 teams. The fact that we, or any other team, isn't stacked at all 3 forward positions shouldn't shock you.

It doesn't shock me. But whatever your problem is, you have to attempt to address it somehow.

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10-27-2011, 03:04 PM
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Give me the best scoring forward available...I don't care what wing he's on because it will be years before he makes the team anyway.

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10-27-2011, 03:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AJBergy86 View Post
I do not think Prust is going anywhere. Our left wing depth is more of an issue imo

Long term or short term? In the short term, we need a LW. In the long term, we have a lot of LW, but few RW.

Prust won't be going anywhere in the next couple of years, but by the time our 2012 draftees are ready to roll, Prust will be in his mid-30s. Bottom-6 players usually do not last until they are 35.

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10-27-2011, 03:08 PM
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It doesn't shock me. But whatever your problem is, you have to attempt to address it somehow.
All you have to do is draft good players. Position is irrelevant.

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10-27-2011, 03:28 PM
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tank and draft Yakupov

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10-27-2011, 03:34 PM
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Tank, tank, tank.......and fire Torts.

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10-27-2011, 04:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jagrcantakeyou View Post
tank and draft Yakupov

Too late. Should have done it a half a dozen years ago. What can we trade away to tank? Gaborik? That's about it. The rest of the important players are seen as being here for another 4-5 years minimum. Simply losing Gaborik for picks and prospects won't be enough to give us a first overall pick or even a 5th overall pick, and probably not even a 10th overall pick.

What we should done was trade Jagr, Nylander, Straka, Rucinsky, Rucchin, Sykora, Malik and Rosie for picks and prospects during the 2005-06 season.

We would have drafted a good young player, plus we'd have an extra half a dozen second rounders plus at least one extra first rounder and a few late picks, plus another half a dozen decent prospects. Some of those picks would have worked out and we'd be a contender by now.

Instead, when I proposed it, I was told that what defines success is making the playoffs. That's all that matters. If you make the playoffs, that's it, that's where it's at. Plus, "anything can happen in the playoffs", which is false, "anything" can happen for a round or two, not for 4 rounds.

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10-27-2011, 04:19 PM
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Kudos on the hard work for this insightful post.

Go with the head + shoulders best if there is one.
Am flexible about otherwise best player available.
Could see leaning towards a W.

I would prioritize our need is for a finisher more than merely LW or RW.
Don't want smaller guys for NHL level, esp. at higher pick level.

Basically, think we should be drafting towards solid physical types like Anisimov, one guy is another AA but has a little more scoring flourish, ok, but basically AA as a prototype makes sense to me.

PS not to get off track but should we be thinking about a run at the Hawk's McNeil? Or not enough of a scorer? If enough of a scorer, what's better in your opinion, McNeil with time served under his belt, or who we're likely to draft?

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10-27-2011, 04:27 PM
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well lets be real here, Yakupov is going to fall to us and we are going to take him

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10-27-2011, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Callahan will be 27 by the next draft. A prospect takes 5-7 years to develop... I know that the most common answer people here give on when a prospect will be ready is 2 years, 3-4 if it's a major project like McIlrath...With rare exceptions, it takes MUCH longer than that.
2005 Draft
1st Mark Staal 2 years
2nd Mike Sauer 5 years - extended by injuries

2006
2nd AA 3 years

2008
1st MDZ - 1 year
2nd Stepan - 2 years

2009
1st Chris Kreider - 3 years and counting, - wanted to finish college.

2010 & 2011 pick are 2 and 1 year and counting respectively.

How do you get 5-7 years? Any pick in the 1st two rounds drafted in recent history, that's going to make the team, makes it within 3 years unless there is some kind of other factor, college, injury, etc. This fact alone, kills your whole argument.

Take the BPA for the first two rounds. Third or fourth round we need to be thinking about a goalie if there is a solid one available. Henke isn't going to be here forever and goalies are slow to develop.

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10-27-2011, 05:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike1983 View Post
I don't think we need anything specific. Best player available for this draft IMO, leaning toward forward.

There is always the UFA market to pick up a good RWer (if not this year, the next year, or the year after).

Lets not forget Jagr will be available in July
id love if Jagr came back. but Sather bombed like that like he did with Prospal. i mean EC over Prospal . EC didnt need to be signed for this year. sather gave him too many years.

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10-27-2011, 05:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vipernsx View Post
2005 Draft
1st Mark Staal 2 years
2nd Mike Sauer 5 years - extended by injuries

2006
2nd AA 3 years

2008
1st MDZ - 1 year
2nd Stepan - 2 years

2009
1st Chris Kreider - 3 years and counting, - wanted to finish college.

2010 & 2011 pick are 2 and 1 year and counting respectively.

How do you get 5-7 years?

Because it takes 2-4 years for a player to reach his potential once he cracks the NHL. Is MDZ at his potential? Is Stepan? Was Anisimov at his potential as a rookie or even now? How many years did it take Staal to reach his potential?


People need to follow what they are reading more closely. You hear the scouts say that someone will be ready for NHL in 2-3 years, and that this player is projected to be, say, a second liner, and people just assume that in 2-3 years, the kid will be a second liner. That's NOT what scouts mean.

It means that in 3 years, the player will be ready for bottom-6 duty where he is spotted in the right situations where it will be hard to fail. Then it will take another 2-4 years to actually reach his potential.

Look at Callahan. He was drafted in 2004. He reached his potential last season. Prior to that, he was a 0.5 point tweener.

Look at Staal: the first two years in the NHL, he was totally inept offensively and not as perfect defensively as he is now.

Just because a player cracks the NHL, doesn't mean he's reached his potential. In fact, most rookies are being played only in "the right situation", which would never be done with vets. That's fine, but you have to also understand that these rookies will have to improve as the years go on. And the end of this improvement doesn't happen until the MID-20s.


Think about it: when does a player's "prime" begin? Is it at the age of 20-21? Of course not. It's in his mid-20s.

The idea that the first year a rookie makes the team, he'll be ready to replace Gaborik or even Callahan, is utterly preposterous unless that rookie is an absolute superstar.

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10-27-2011, 06:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Because it takes 2-4 years for a player to reach his potential once he cracks the NHL. Is MDZ at his potential? Is Stepan? Was Anisimov at his potential as a rookie or even now? How many years did it take Staal to reach his potential?


People need to follow what they are reading more closely. You hear the scouts say that someone will be ready for NHL in 2-3 years, and that this player is projected to be, say, a second liner, and people just assume that in 2-3 years, the kid will be a second liner. That's NOT what scouts mean.

It means that in 3 years, the player will be ready for bottom-6 duty where he is spotted in the right situations where it will be hard to fail. Then it will take another 2-4 years to actually reach his potential.

Look at Callahan. He was drafted in 2004. He reached his potential last season. Prior to that, he was a 0.5 point tweener.

Look at Staal: the first two years in the NHL, he was totally inept offensively and not as perfect defensively as he is now.

Just because a player cracks the NHL, doesn't mean he's reached his potential. In fact, most rookies are being played only in "the right situation", which would never be done with vets. That's fine, but you have to also understand that these rookies will have to improve as the years go on. And the end of this improvement doesn't happen until the MID-20s.


Think about it: when does a player's "prime" begin? Is it at the age of 20-21? Of course not. It's in his mid-20s.

The idea that the first year a rookie makes the team, he'll be ready to replace Gaborik or even Callahan, is utterly preposterous unless that rookie is an absolute superstar.
So you expect Chris Kreider to be playing 8 minutes a game as a bottom feeder next year?

Whether they've peaked or not the vast majority of the Rangers core players have taken their roles within a year of making the NHL. MDZ really being the only one who regressed with a severe sophomore slump. That said, knock on wood, he's look fairly solid focusing on his defensive play this season and considering offense secondary, rather than the other way around.

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10-27-2011, 06:50 PM
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My expectations for Kreider next year is to be a solid third liner. If he gets 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 points total (midway point Anisimov and Stepan in their rookie seasons), I will be very happy with his production. To expect Kreider to be an immediate second liner who scores 20+ goals is not reasonable. Can it happen? Sure, but he can also fails to make the nhl, at least to start the season.

And kreider is a star prospect. There is absolutely no proof that our 2012 draftee will progress as well as Kreider.

But whatever he does in his rookie season, I will expect more from him when he is 25. If he somehow scores 40 goals, which I don't think he will but just for the sale of the argument if he scores 40 goals as a rookie, I will expect even better results in the future.


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10-27-2011, 10:37 PM
  #23
Killem Dafoe
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Quote:
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well lets be real here, Yakupov is going to fall to us and we are going to take him
haha the way were playing now it wont take much to fall to us

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10-29-2011, 09:27 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Too late. Should have done it a half a dozen years ago. What can we trade away to tank? Gaborik? That's about it. The rest of the important players are seen as being here for another 4-5 years minimum. Simply losing Gaborik for picks and prospects won't be enough to give us a first overall pick or even a 5th overall pick, and probably not even a 10th overall pick.

What we should done was trade Jagr, Nylander, Straka, Rucinsky, Rucchin, Sykora, Malik and Rosie for picks and prospects during the 2005-06 season.

We would have drafted a good young player, plus we'd have an extra half a dozen second rounders plus at least one extra first rounder and a few late picks, plus another half a dozen decent prospects. Some of those picks would have worked out and we'd be a contender by now.

Instead, when I proposed it, I was told that what defines success is making the playoffs. That's all that matters. If you make the playoffs, that's it, that's where it's at. Plus, "anything can happen in the playoffs", which is false, "anything" can happen for a round or two, not for 4 rounds.
I disagree that its not do-able.
But it's still risky, probably not worth it, will not result in instant gratification (at least 2 seasons down the road) and is not the classy, right way to be.

You raise good points.
I think the Hawks, for example will give us a guy like Dylan Olsen + X but it will take at least Dubinsky + Y. Olsen is projected lock as a 3-4 D with upside potential to be a 2. The key with whether or not this is a matter of going a step and a half backward to go two and half steps forwards is the value of X and Y.

And I'm sure something can be worked out where we pick up picks and other potential from the Canucks just to help them get cap space for Weber. Just haven't thought all the details through yet.

It would be great if this team were deep enough we could do this re-tooling while competing, still getting into the playoffs at the bottom, and hoping for lightning to strike.
Unfortunately we can just manage the team we have, not good enough to kick ass and take the Cup, not weak enough to draft the studs we need to build into a powerhouse.

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10-29-2011, 09:37 AM
  #25
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Truth to be told, BPA is really what we should go.

I mean, after seeing some of the supposed high reward picks from this summers camp, it's easy to feel like "was this all we got?" in the end.

For a player to become a very good NHLer, outside like the top 10 that player needs to be a heck of a player overall basically -- to even come close (see Thomas' play in camp for example). Odds are probably bigger that a good hockey player overall will develop a scoring touch than that a kid with a s prong touch will develop a good game overall.


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