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Old
10-28-2011, 12:32 AM
  #76
Damaged Goods
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
I think Plan B is absolutely the better alternative because they would be getting far more value out of his ELC which is important under the cap. Would you rather have a 50 point player making nearly $1.4M or a 4th liner that sees no PP time and might be lucky to hit 30 points?
And giving it right back in the form of a more expensive RFA contract, plus they lose Couturier's actual productivity as an 18 y/o.

The only way to actually "give up" Couturier's productivity is to ship him off of the team. By keeping him now, they "give up" nothing but the ability to shuffle a greater amount of money further down the line. They still control Couturier for the duration, unless your foresee Couturier being lost as an RFA.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
The other crucial piece of information is that had they delayed his contract a year he would be restricted the year Briere's contract finally comes off the books. So there would be a huge chunk of breathing room in that scenario even if he costs a bit more. The higher cost down the road would be justified.

Timonen and Hartnell expire that year, shaving off $10.5 M, plus Giroux, Meszaros, Read, Schenn and Couturier themselves have hits of $12-13 M to start off with.

That gives them ~$23 M to work with before you factor in the rising cap. Jagr, Shelley and Lappy also expire, meaning they only need to save about $2M of that money to cover everyone.

7 Giroux
5 Meszaros
5 Couturier
5 Schenn
3 Read

I think it's reasonable to expect that can be done, with some portion of the remaining cap increases going towards replenishing the aging d-corps.

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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Besides there is no guarantee there would be a huge difference in salary if he was signed at 21 rather than 20. As we see with contracts like the one handed out to JVR, players sometimes end up being paid on potential. At least Couturier could be more proven at 21 and more deserving of a bump in pay.
Of course there is no guarantee, but there is way to appeal to hindsight when we are talking about events 3-4 years in the future, so I think you just have to take the least controversial premise.

Surely it is logical to project that a developing player will be better at 19 than he is at 18, better at 20 than he is at 19, better at 21 than he is at 20... after all, isn't that what your assumption that the Flyers are "wasting" an ELC year on an 18 y/o is based on? And if Couturier is developing according to his age curve, then it is logical to have an expectation of improved performance by the year, and with improved performance comes the demand for more compensation.

The only variable I am accounting for here is the one that the Flyers can control: how old Couturier is when they start his NHL clock. We are making the assumption that Couturier develops at least as well being sent down for this year of Junior as he would staying up with the Flyers for the entire year (I think I am only being charitable to your position in that regard). Since the 21 y/o Couturier should be better than the 18 y/o Couturier, the resume should be better, the risk premium lower (from the team perspective) and the compensation steeper.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
At least Couturier could be more proven at 21 and more deserving of a bump in pay.
I don't dispute that. But once again, it's a case of give to get. Assuming that the contract is being negotiated fairly, the Flyers have to give up more in compensation to get more in terms of a proven commodity. This just leads me back to the same conclusion that the financial considerations wash out, and therefore the decision should be 100% hockey. For me, the hockey decision says keep Couturier with the Flyers; he belongs.

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10-28-2011, 12:56 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
And giving it right back in the form of a more expensive RFA contract, plus they lose Couturier's actual productivity as an 18 y/o.

The only way to actually "give up" Couturier's productivity is to ship him off of the team. By keeping him now, they "give up" nothing but the ability to shuffle a greater amount of money further down the line. They still control Couturier for the duration, unless your foresee Couturier being lost as an RFA.
You are completely speculating that he would be more expensive by delaying his contract a year.


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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Timonen and Hartnell expire that year, shaving off $10.5 M, plus Giroux, Meszaros, Read, Schenn and Couturier themselves have hits of $12-13 M to start off with.

That gives them ~$23 M to work with before you factor in the rising cap. Jagr, Shelley and Lappy also expire, meaning they only need to save about $2M of that money to cover everyone.

7 Giroux
5 Meszaros
5 Couturier
5 Schenn
3 Read

I think it's reasonable to expect that can be done, with some portion of the remaining cap increases going towards replenishing the aging d-corps.
Timonen and Hartnell come off the books the year before Couturier and co. come off the books. Holmgren (assuming he is still around) will certainly try to spend some of that on Timonen's replacement. In fact, it's likely he will spend right up the cap like he does every year and none of that cap space will be allocated to the 5 expiring contracts the following summer.

Jagr comes off the books this year and his money goes to JVR's extension. Plus they have to deal with Voracek, Coburn, and Carle this summer.

Shelley comes off the following year when Hartnell and Timonen comes off the books. Like I said he will likely spend some of that on Timonen's replacement. Simmonds also needs a new deal that summer.

It's going to be incredibly tough if not impossible to retain all 5 of those players. I wouldn't be surprised if they are forced to trade Giroux.


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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Of course there is no guarantee, but there is way to appeal to hindsight when we are talking about events 3-4 years in the future, so I think you just have to take the least controversial premise.

Surely it is logical to project that a developing player will be better at 19 than he is at 18, better at 20 than he is at 19, better at 21 than he is at 20... after all, isn't that what your assumption that the Flyers are "wasting" an ELC year on an 18 y/o is based on? And if Couturier is developing according to his age curve, then it is logical to have an expectation of improved performance by the year, and with improved performance comes the demand for more compensation.

The only variable I am accounting for here is the one that the Flyers can control: how old Couturier is when they start his NHL clock. We are making the assumption that Couturier develops at least as well being sent down for this year of Junior as he would staying up with the Flyers for the entire year (I think I am only being charitable to your position in that regard). Since the 21 y/o Couturier should be better than the 18 y/o Couturier, the resume should be better, the risk premium lower (from the team perspective) and the compensation steeper..
I agree it logical to assume he will be better, but I don't think the compensation would necessarily be that much greater simply because teams sometimes end up paying for potential and not what they already achieved as I pointed out with JVR. He received $4.2M this summer. Do you think he will be worth much more $4.2 this upcoming summer? My guess is probably not. The one year difference may not be as significant when it comes to his salary as you think it may be.


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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I don't dispute that. But once again, it's a case of give to get. Assuming that the contract is being negotiated fairly, the Flyers have to give up more in compensation to get more in terms of a proven commodity. This just leads me back to the same conclusion that the financial considerations wash out, and therefore the decision should be 100% hockey. For me, the hockey decision says keep Couturier with the Flyers; he belongs.
I don't think the financial considerations wash out. It is much more problematic to have him come off the books alongside Schenn, Giroux, Read, and Meszaros than to have to potentially pay him more at 21 when they will have Briere's cap space free.

I think Couturier is NHL ready, but I don't think he is benefitting the team much as a 4th line forward/penalty killer. If he is that crucial to the PK them Holmgren completely failed this offseason.

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10-28-2011, 03:44 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
A "fair" contract like the one JVR just got? You know the one where he was paid market value for an established scorer...
JvR has an excellent contract. In the playoffs you will look like an idiot

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Old
10-28-2011, 03:56 PM
  #79
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Giroux won't be traded unless possible locker room problems arise.

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Old
10-28-2011, 04:01 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by CharlieGirl View Post
You are absolutely correct. At least your first sentence is.

In a salary cap world, paying attention to which contracts are expiring, and staggering them to keep them in line with the cap is not only intelligent, it's imperative.

Just how many of Giroux, Schenn, Couturier, Read, Meszaros are going to be able to stay in Philly if they all need raises at exactly the same time? Especially where most of them are coming off entry level or low cap hit deals.

Whether it's right or wrong for Couturier remains to be seen. I'm not a fan of most 18 year olds staying up while only getting 4th line minutes, but so far he's not been limited to 6 or 7 minutes a night.

PS - Couturier (or any other young player) would have rocks in his head to give the Flyers a hometown discount.
Every single GM in the NHL would say you do whats best for the player in this situation.

Realistically, you just cant predict what our cap situation will look like in 3-7 years.

Its only here, on the internet, that people with a basic understanding of contract strategy will claim: 'being Penny smart and Pound foolish is the best option! '


People here are insane, how bold it is to believe you know more than the best GMs in the world ...humble up a bit people! Give these guys the benefit of the doubt. They know all the details and aren't just speculating! !

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Old
10-28-2011, 04:03 PM
  #81
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Couturier will be a better player by staying with the big club.......

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10-28-2011, 04:05 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Is 13:00 a night not enough for a 18 y/o rookie on a team with deep forward group?

What would Couturier be getting by dominating in Junior that he is not getting here and that would result in a "bigger payoff"?

I don't see any evidence whatsoever that keeping Couturier up is hurting Couturier in the long run or hurting the team at present.
Claude Giroux and Simon Gagne weren't hurt by it. Luca Sbisa and Justin Williams were.


There's no such thing as too much seasoning.


Regardless, he's not going back now.

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10-29-2011, 08:09 AM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
You are completely speculating that he would be more expensive by delaying his contract a year.
I am following the same exact logic as you are:

"The greater payoff I am referring to about would have been to have him on his ELC when he was 19-20-21."

I can only assume the "greater payoff" comes from Couturier being a more productive player on his ELC. And a more productive, more proven player is in better position to get a better contract, no?


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Timonen and Hartnell come off the books the year before Couturier and co. come off the books. Holmgren (assuming he is still around) will certainly try to spend some of that on Timonen's replacement. In fact, it's likely he will spend right up the cap like he does every year and none of that cap space will be allocated to the 5 expiring contracts the following summer.

Jagr comes off the books this year and his money goes to JVR's extension. Plus they have to deal with Voracek, Coburn, and Carle this summer.

Shelley comes off the following year when Hartnell and Timonen comes off the books. Like I said he will likely spend some of that on Timonen's replacement. Simmonds also needs a new deal that summer.

It's going to be incredibly tough if not impossible to retain all 5 of those players. I wouldn't be surprised if they are forced to trade Giroux.
Talk about "completely speculating." It seems as if your argument is based on the presumption that money will be mis-allocated ahead of time. I can't criticize something that hasn't happened yet, nor can I defend it. All I can say, at the present time, is that the cap space should be there based on contract expiries. If the cap continues to rise, that provides the money to replace veteran defensemen.

If the Flyers blow their money on bad or superfluous deals, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. I personally believe they have enough young talent to largely re-plenish the top scoring lines from within over the next few years. And replacements for bottom-six prospects are much easier to develop

As Jagr, Hartnell and Briere depart, players like Schenn, Couturier and Read step into their void. I'm confident that the Flyers can find the Powes and Nodls of the world to fill the vacated roles at the bottom of the roster.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
I agree it logical to assume he will be better, but I don't think the compensation would necessarily be that much greater simply because teams sometimes end up paying for potential and not what they already achieved as I pointed out with JVR. He received $4.2M this summer. Do you think he will be worth much more $4.2 this upcoming summer? My guess is probably not. The one year difference may not be as significant when it comes to his salary as you think it may be.

I would agree with you if JVR had signed a short contract extension at $4.2 M, but that wasn't the case. The Flyers did JVR a favor by signing him a year earlier than they had to (assuming greater risk up front), and JVR did the Flyers a favor by signing at what projects to be a very favorable cap hit for many years down the line (assuming risk at the back end). The Flyers "paid for potential," but they also potentially underpaid. You have to look at both sides of things.

We don't know if the Flyers would have had the opportunity to offer the same kind of contract by waiting a year. JVR's leverage position could have changed in that time.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
I don't think the financial considerations wash out. It is much more problematic to have him come off the books alongside Schenn, Giroux, Read, and Meszaros than to have to potentially pay him more at 21 when they will have Briere's cap space free.

I think Couturier is NHL ready, but I don't think he is benefitting the team much as a 4th line forward/penalty killer. If he is that crucial to the PK them Holmgren completely failed this offseason.
I think you're playing Catch-22 here. I think Couturier is benefitting the team and that is good reason to have him around. If you think that proves that Homer is a colossal idiot, then fine. But I am only talking about this specific decision, not calling for a referendum on the GM's tenure.

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10-29-2011, 08:38 AM
  #84
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I think what a lot of people fail to realize is that Couturier has said he would do what ever is needed of him to help the team win. Right now, because his defensive game is that sound, he is being used in a role that the team sorely needs. Does it mean he's being wasted? No, not at all. Fact is, he's still getting ice time and he's playing a very important role to the club right now. Is it a glamorous role? Nope and I think that's a very good thing in that it shows Couturier is willing to do what ever takes to win and is willing to accept a non-glamorous role. Just think how in two to three years how much of a better player he will be as a result.

Being a defensive forward is probably the hardest assignment in hockey. When you look at the role they provide, much more responsibility is placed on their shoulders than anyone else on the team. That's what makes this all the more impressive. I'm willing to bet that by mid-season, Couturier is averaging 15 to 17 minutes a night of ice time and no one will be complaining then whether or not it's a good idea to have him up.

One last thing. If anyone thinks Couturier's offensive game will go down the drain, it's highly doubtful. If it's one thing that can't be taught it's offensive skills and Couturier has those. We've already seen this season just how good his vision is and he has an NHL caliber shot. Those skills won't be going away any time soon.

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10-29-2011, 09:20 AM
  #85
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It's not about Couturier willing to do it, it's about the fact that he really shouldn't be that guy. He might be willing to do it, but he's being put in a position to fail, and that's where development hurts both the player and the team. Especially since there is no support system if he does fail.

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10-29-2011, 11:10 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
It's not about Couturier willing to do it, it's about the fact that he really shouldn't be that guy. He might be willing to do it, but he's being put in a position to fail, and that's where development hurts both the player and the team. Especially since there is no support system if he does fail.
this will also stunt his offensive growth imo. especially if they keep him on the 4th line. the kid had offensive skills btu wll clearly be wasted on the 4th line. zubrus all over again on a smaller scale as zubrus wasnt as talented a shim offensively.

they are wasting a year of his elc. in 2014 who else is a free agent that will need to be signed? he will be much more important in 2 years than he is this year.

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10-29-2011, 12:21 PM
  #87
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Claude Giroux and Simon Gagne weren't hurt by it. Luca Sbisa and Justin Williams were.


There's no such thing as too much seasoning.


Regardless, he's not going back now.
This is a lie. Too much seasoning causes a level of unrest among players. Couturier has not only done nothing wrong, but he looks like our best defensive forward out there at times. It's not going to hurt his development staying in the NHL. Hurting his development would be giving him false confidence in juniors dominating against an age group that he battered when he was 16.

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10-29-2011, 12:59 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I am following the same exact logic as you are:

"The greater payoff I am referring to about would have been to have him on his ELC when he was 19-20-21."

I can only assume the "greater payoff" comes from Couturier being a more productive player on his ELC. And a more productive, more proven player is in better position to get a better contract, no?
More productive can mean a better contract, but if Holmgren decides to lock him up long term and pay him on potential there might not be a a significant difference in signing him at 20 than signing him at 21. You also keep ignoring that at 21 he would be due a raise when Briere comes off the books so they would better be able to afford him. Your argument holds no water because the potential of a larger contract at 21 isn't problematic. It's re-signing him at 20 when they have to sign four other players that is problematic.





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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Talk about "completely speculating." It seems as if your argument is based on the presumption that money will be mis-allocated ahead of time. I can't criticize something that hasn't happened yet, nor can I defend it. All I can say, at the present time, is that the cap space should be there based on contract expiries. If the cap continues to rise, that provides the money to replace veteran defensemen.

If the Flyers blow their money on bad or superfluous deals, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. I personally believe they have enough young talent to largely re-plenish the top scoring lines from within over the next few years. And replacements for bottom-six prospects are much easier to develop

As Jagr, Hartnell and Briere depart, players like Schenn, Couturier and Read step into their void. I'm confident that the Flyers can find the Powes and Nodls of the world to fill the vacated roles at the bottom of the roster.

I'm basing my premise on Holmgren's track record as the general manager of the Flyers. Holmgren spends up to the cap each and every season. You are attempting to present the best case scenario, but it is not based on reality. What makes you think Holmgren is going to leave over $10M in cap space free when that goes against everything he has done as GM? Holmgren has demonstrated over and over again that he does not plan beyond the current season. It is his M.O. to spend right up to the cap which typically results in some sort of cap jam. You are also basing your premise on the assumption that he will let both Hartnell and Timonen walk without attempting to re-sign or replace either of them. I believe that it is the least likely outcome. You're dreaming if you don't believe he won't attempt to replace Timonen instead of allowing his defense to be built around a 39 year old Pronger. You are also overlooking that Simmonds will need a new contract which will eat up some of the cap space. It is completely unrealistic to expect all of that cap space to be free. Maybe he will leave some space for the contracts the following summer, but it is something he has never done as GM.

It is far from a given that the Flyers will be able to re-sign Couturier, Schenn, and Read.


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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I would agree with you if JVR had signed a short contract extension at $4.2 M, but that wasn't the case. The Flyers did JVR a favor by signing him a year earlier than they had to (assuming greater risk up front), and JVR did the Flyers a favor by signing at what projects to be a very favorable cap hit for many years down the line (assuming risk at the back end). The Flyers "paid for potential," but they also potentially underpaid. You have to look at both sides of things.

We don't know if the Flyers would have had the opportunity to offer the same kind of contract by waiting a year. JVR's leverage position could have changed in that time.
I understand how JVR contract's work. The point is they paid top dollar to get him locked up. I doubt a year is going to make a significant difference in his worth on the market.




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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I think you're playing Catch-22 here. I think Couturier is benefitting the team and that is good reason to have him around. If you think that proves that Homer is a colossal idiot, then fine. But I am only talking about this specific decision, not calling for a referendum on the GM's tenure.
Couturier is playing in a role that can be easily filled by someone on the Phantoms. How is it a benefit to have him on the team in that role? If he was getting 3rd line minutes and PP time it would be different.

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10-29-2011, 04:22 PM
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Wow so Couturier can't even crack the top 9 with Schenn and Briere out. What a joke.

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10-29-2011, 05:32 PM
  #90
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Wow so Couturier can't even crack the top 9 with Schenn and Briere out. What a joke.
What? MSE has him on the 3rd line.

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10-29-2011, 05:42 PM
  #91
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What? MSE has him on the 3rd line.
Randy Miller and John Boruk are both reporting that he is on the 4th line with Shelley and Rinaldo.

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10-29-2011, 06:24 PM
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Randy Miller and John Boruk are both reporting that he is on the 4th line with Shelley and Rinaldo.
That's just ridiculous.

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10-29-2011, 10:21 PM
  #93
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Wow so Couturier can't even crack the top 9 with Schenn and Briere out. What a joke.
Well, Max Talbot has been playing fantastic the last few games, so Couts can learn from watching him. They are trying to win hockey games, a rookie's October progress isn't the only thing going on.

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10-29-2011, 10:25 PM
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this will also stunt his offensive growth imo. especially if they keep him on the 4th line. the kid had offensive skills btu wll clearly be wasted on the 4th line. zubrus all over again on a smaller scale as zubrus wasnt as talented a shim offensively.

they are wasting a year of his elc. in 2014 who else is a free agent that will need to be signed? he will be much more important in 2 years than he is this year.
His ELC status is irrelevant. The whole team turned over last summer, and could turn over again before then anyway.

The Zubrus comparison isn't relevant because the problem Zubrus had was that he had only played Tier 2 Jr in Ontario, not major Jr. Most of us wanted to see him play in Jr. to get more experience in at a higher level of Jr.

Couturier played three complete seasons in the Q. He has light years more offensive experience than Zubrus did, at a higher level of hockey. He made the team out of camp and that's all that matters.

Burning an ELC year, so friggin' what? People who worry about crap like that really need to consider the option of getting lives.

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10-29-2011, 11:13 PM
  #95
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Well, Max Talbot has been playing fantastic the last few games, so Couts can learn from watching him. They are trying to win hockey games, a rookie's October progress isn't the only thing going on.
Well said.

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10-29-2011, 11:25 PM
  #96
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Well, Max Talbot has been playing fantastic the last few games, so Couts can learn from watching him. They are trying to win hockey games, a rookie's October progress isn't the only thing going on.
Then they should have sent him back down if he isn't ready to play a real role with a contending team.

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10-29-2011, 11:26 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
This is a lie. Too much seasoning causes a level of unrest among players. Couturier has not only done nothing wrong, but he looks like our best defensive forward out there at times. It's not going to hurt his development staying in the NHL. Hurting his development would be giving him false confidence in juniors dominating against an age group that he battered when he was 16.
Hurting his development is sticking him on the 4th line with two slugs next to him. I wouldn't even care about that if we could roll 4 lines, but for some reason we find a purpose for two guys who do nothing but warm the bench and play their best/most when the game is no longer in doubt.

He's also not going to give us more at age 18 than he would at 21. The fact that an 18 year-old is our best defensive forward is another problem unto itself. Tonight he had less than 9 minutes at even strength, and just 90 seconds in the 2nd period. If he's here to play than play him. Give him 15-17 minutes a night. If he was this amazingly dominant player, then he would have been the 1st overall pick and not the 8th. He's a prideful player, and he would have gone back and worked on the things needed.

By the way, our best forward was sent back to juniors not once, but twice after 100-point seasons.

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10-29-2011, 11:33 PM
  #98
ChumpyG
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Then they should have sent him back down if he isn't ready to play a real role with a contending team.
How is he not playing a "real role" with the team? He's one of the best defensive forwards on the team right now. That's a pretty damn real and important role. Just because he hasn't scored 100 goals so far doesn't mean he's being wasted.

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10-29-2011, 11:38 PM
  #99
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How is he not playing a "real role" with the team? He's one of the best defensive forwards on the team right now. That's a pretty damn real and important role. Just because he hasn't scored 100 goals so far doesn't mean he's being wasted.
He's 10th in ice time per game among forwards. Your 10th forward is a 4th liner. That's not a real role.

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10-29-2011, 11:42 PM
  #100
ChumpyG
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He's 10th in ice time per game among forwards. Your 10th forward is a 4th liner. That's not a real role.
So, guys like Lappy and Betts aren't that important after all? Duly noted.

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