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Who is Playing Above or Below Expectations?

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Old
11-08-2011, 10:39 AM
  #26
Talks to Goalposts
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
64pts is not the reason why Cammy was offered 6M. Gomez was overpaid the day he signed his contract, I don't think anybody expected him to be our leading scorer when he was brought in. Cammy however, is another story. He was signed to such a deal after getting career high in both points (82) and goals (39), so people should have expected a similar type of production. I didn't expect less than 30G/70pts from Cammy. I know injuries happen

You also can't pin point stats as you are now. I can tell you his scoring pace is one under 25G. I can tell you that despite his shots total being on pace for his highest total in his career, his shooting percentage is at his lowest, which, again, projects him to put under 25 goals.

His PO production represents better what people expected from him.
His Calgary totals were playing soft minutes with Iginla. That wasn't a role available to during his time in Montreal. Anyone who thought he'd do that every year is suffering from delusions of how good Cammalleri can be expected to be. And considering the nature of the UFA market he's basically earning his salary in production terms.

Like I said, count him by 9 games instead of 10, he only played 3 minutes in that one game due to injury so it isn't fair to count it as a full game. That is a 27 goal pace, which is respectable considering the low shooting percentage. And ability to generate shots is a far better sign of performance at this point than goals scored. 1 goal in either direction has too much influence at this point for goal totals to be predictive of anything and you should know by now that shooting percentage regresses heavily to career averages. A low shooting percentage is a good sign for the future, not a bad one.

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Old
11-08-2011, 10:50 AM
  #27
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After training camp, Weber was #8 on the D depth chart, #9 if you include the injured Markov. Yet, he persevered and has been terrific.

Reward? Idiot Martin is putting him on the 4th line tonight! Why not Diaz or Emelin or call up someone from Hamilton just in case AK can't go? Weber will play the PP as a D and may end up getting important minutes in his natural position tonight but, compared to Diaz and Emelin, he's a vet and should not be disrespected this way.

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Old
11-08-2011, 01:26 PM
  #28
Kriss E
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
His Calgary totals were playing soft minutes with Iginla. That wasn't a role available to during his time in Montreal. Anyone who thought he'd do that every year is suffering from delusions of how good Cammalleri can be expected to be. And considering the nature of the UFA market he's basically earning his salary in production terms.

Like I said, count him by 9 games instead of 10, he only played 3 minutes in that one game due to injury so it isn't fair to count it as a full game. That is a 27 goal pace, which is respectable considering the low shooting percentage. And ability to generate shots is a far better sign of performance at this point than goals scored. 1 goal in either direction has too much influence at this point for goal totals to be predictive of anything and you should know by now that shooting percentage regresses heavily to career averages. A low shooting percentage is a good sign for the future, not a bad one.
No matter what minutes he played in CGY, Montreal signed him to reproduce that production. You don't need to give me reasons as to why he hasn't reached it.
Also, his minutes didn't differ from Regular season to POs, with us, unless I'm mistaken.
People expected PO Cammalleri to be Regular Season Cammalleri, simple as that.

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Old
11-08-2011, 01:35 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Not sure why Cammaleri isn't meeting peoples expectations, he has 7 points in essentially 9 games (don't count the game he left as a full game, he only played like 3 minutes) Which comes out to a 64 point pace and he's producing enough shot to pace for over 30 goals in a typical shooting year for him.

If you're expecting more than this from Cammalleri then I think the problem is that you have an inflated sense of his abilities.

Kostitsyn is playing some really good hockey for him. And I did not expect Eller to preform this strong in a defensive role as he has. Anyone concerned with Eller's point production should know that the ~30 points he's pacing for currently is pretty good production for a player at his level playing the role he is without any powerplay time. Few forwards can crack 40 points in 82 games without powerplay minutes.

I'd say Pacioretty and Plekanec but I was honestly expecting them to be this good.

Gionta's even strength offense has been fine but hasn't been anything on the powerplay and his defense isn't quite to his previous standard.

Gill has been disappointing, Subban hasn't gotten the bounces he deserves, I'd be happier if Diaz was Hamilton's number 1 and Price could have been much better at the start of the season.

I could deal with Cammy's current production but the turnovers and terrible decision making (specially on the PP) are starting to become very annoying.

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Old
11-08-2011, 02:46 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
No matter what minutes he played in CGY, Montreal signed him to reproduce that production. You don't need to give me reasons as to why he hasn't reached it.
Also, his minutes didn't differ from Regular season to POs, with us, unless I'm mistaken.
People expected PO Cammalleri to be Regular Season Cammalleri, simple as that.
Is it what the team expected to get for 6 million or what people were expecting? Because those are two different things. If people were expecting a point per game in Montreal every year then I think the problem was that people were expecting him to be something he's not and never was.

He averaged 71 points per 82 games through the prime scoring years of his career before coming to Montreal. In Montreal he's been 65 points through 82 games which is basically the pace he's on now. That's drop, but not a big one for a scoring forward going into the latter part of his 20's and basically around the same level of performance scoring-wise especially since he hasn't got an elite forward to play with like Kopitar or Iginla to boost him like previously.

Playoff Cammalleri is a 90 point player in 82 games. That's completely unreasonable from a guy like Cammalleri who isn't one of the top 10 forwards in the game. That's what Cammalleri can do during a hot streak but expecting him to average that for an entire season is ludicrous. He isn't that good. If your expectation is for him to be that good, you're setting yourself up for disappointment by setting the bar higher than he can be expected to hit in an average season.

If Cammalleri was that good he probably wouldn't have gone to free agency and if he did he'd have commanded more like 7.5-9 million a year rather than 6. Marion Gaborik isn't quite that good and he got 7.5 in the same year as Cammalleri while being a major injury risk.

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Old
11-08-2011, 03:27 PM
  #31
Kriss E
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Is it what the team expected to get for 6 million or what people were expecting? Because those are two different things. If people were expecting a point per game in Montreal every year then I think the problem was that people were expecting him to be something he's not and never was.

He averaged 71 points per 82 games through the prime scoring years of his career before coming to Montreal. In Montreal he's been 65 points through 82 games which is basically the pace he's on now. That's drop, but not a big one for a scoring forward going into the latter part of his 20's and basically around the same level of performance scoring-wise especially since he hasn't got an elite forward to play with like Kopitar or Iginla to boost him like previously.

Playoff Cammalleri is a 90 point player in 82 games. That's completely unreasonable from a guy like Cammalleri who isn't one of the top 10 forwards in the game. That's what Cammalleri can do during a hot streak but expecting him to average that for an entire season is ludicrous. He isn't that good. If your expectation is for him to be that good, you're setting yourself up for disappointment by setting the bar higher than he can be expected to hit in an average season.
We're talking about personal expectations, not managerial ones.
Mike Cammalleri signed his deal with the Habs just a month after turning 27. There was no reason to feel his goal production should drop under 30. Playing under Martin and without more talented players might affect his point totals, but the 30 goal is a mark I'm sure everybody, including management, thought he'd crack regularly. It is the pace he kept for his first year. Dropped it last season, and again this year (although there's still a huge majority of the games left to play).

I won't put as big of a significance on points, but more on goals. I like to focus on the primary things certain players are brought in to do. Cammy and Gionta were brought in to score goals. Gomez, set up teammates.
In terms of goal production, he could have done better. His PO production has been incredible, so expecting this over 82GP might be a set up for a disappointment as you said, but a fair one would be the 30goal mark. Even if he kept that pace in his first year here but was injured, he still has not cracked that total once, so I can understand some disappointment from fans.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
If Cammalleri was that good he probably wouldn't have gone to free agency and if he did he'd have commanded more like 7.5-9 million a year rather than 6. Marion Gaborik isn't quite that good and he got 7.5 in the same year as Cammalleri while being a major injury risk.
He was the 4th highest paid unrestricted free agent of the 2009 summer. The Sedin twins were each re-signed for 100K more. They likely would have hit a higher total had they gone on the open market, but we're talking about 100pts+ players.
Other than them, as you mentioned, Gaborik signed the biggest deal to 7.5M. But, before then and since the lock out, only Kovalchuk and Ovechkin averaged a better goal scoring pace. So, despite being an injury risk, I'd say Gaborik was more worthy of 7.5M than Cammy was of 6M, especially if the expectation was a 25G-65pt one.

Also, the year after signing that contract, Gaborik had a career high in pts and tied his career goal record (with one less game played). He injured himself last year and missed 20games, so that was disappointing, but he's back on track this year scoring at a 45goal pace.
So I won't go as far as to say ''Gaborik isn't that good''.

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Old
11-08-2011, 03:52 PM
  #32
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Above: Moen

Below: PK and Cammy.


Exactly as: Gomez

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Old
11-08-2011, 05:37 PM
  #33
Miller Time
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
His Calgary totals were playing soft minutes with Iginla. That wasn't a role available to during his time in Montreal. Anyone who thought he'd do that every year is suffering from delusions of how good Cammalleri can be expected to be. And considering the nature of the UFA market he's basically earning his salary in production terms.

Like I said, count him by 9 games instead of 10, he only played 3 minutes in that one game due to injury so it isn't fair to count it as a full game. That is a 27 goal pace, which is respectable considering the low shooting percentage. And ability to generate shots is a far better sign of performance at this point than goals scored. 1 goal in either direction has too much influence at this point for goal totals to be predictive of anything and you should know by now that shooting percentage regresses heavily to career averages. A low shooting percentage is a good sign for the future, not a bad one.
so if I follow your logic, that means Gomez, is about to break out in a major way... right?



what is hard to follow with your rational, is that if Cammy's production with Iginla in CGY was just a result of playing "soft minutes", then presumably his 15% sh percentage was inflated, meaning that his career average of 11% is also inflated, which would mean that his 9.8% last year and 8.5% this year is really not so far off where his sh % should be...

to me this just highlights once again how much the conclusions you pull out of your statistical analysis is anything but objective


that you can't measure or calculate confidence, external pressures (relationships, children, deaths), and how both of those factors combined with the individuals personal coping mechanisms are FAR MORE predictive to future performance than past shooting %, reveals just how misguided attempts to draw conclusions from isolated statistics is. (and that's to say nothing of actual hockey factors like chemistry, relationship with coaches, media/fan attention/pressure, contract status, and so on and so on...



players are human beings, not mathematical equations....

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Old
11-08-2011, 05:53 PM
  #34
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Pacioretty - Expected him to start off slow, but he has 5 goals, 5 assists in 13 games.
Gorges - Same as Patches. Leads the team in +/- with +7.
Moen - Hot start with 4 big goals. Playing solid.
Spacek - Proving to people that you shouldn't give up on him just yet.

Below
Cammalleri - Isn't scoring much, playing weak hockey in all three zones.
Gionta - Expected more. He hasn't shown the grit he showed in the previous two years.
Subban - Obviously off to a slow start.
Gill - He looks his age and it's hurting his team most of the time.

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