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Enough already! The Detroit goaltending "model" is a myth.

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Old
11-08-2011, 12:12 PM
  #26
Sabretip
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
There are a few top 10 cap hit deals that are horrible up front (Scott Gomez at $7.3M per) and on D (Bouwmeester at $6.68M, Campbell at $7.1M and Redden at $6.5M).

But, if you look at the lists, the forwards and defensemen that get top end money sure seem to be better long term bets than goalies tend to be.

And most of the big forward/defense misses tend to be overpaid UFAs. You get some of that in goal (Huet being the poster child). But, you also get some of that with big deals to keep #1s, as well. Backstrom might be the poster child for that today and I could see Rinne being the poster child for that in 3 or 4 years.
Per CapGeek, top 25 salaries this season:

1.Richards, Brad F, NYR, 31, 9 yrs, $12,000,000
2.Lecavalier, Vincent F, TBL, 31, 11 yrs, $10,000,000
3.Bryzgalov, Ilya G, PHI, 31, 9 yrs, $10,000,000
4.Ehrhoff, Christian D, BUF, 29, 10 yrs, $10,000,000
5.Malkin, Evgeni F, PIT, 25, 5 yrs, $9,000,000
6.Crosby, Sidney F, PIT, 24, 5 yrs, $9,000,000
7.Ovechkin, Alexander F, WAS, 26, 13 yrs, $9,000,000
8.Chara, Zdeno D, BOS, 34, 7 yrs, $8,500,000
9.Spezza, Jason F, OTT, 28, 7 yrs, $8,000,000
10.Heatley, Dany F, MIN, 30, 6 yrs, $8,000,000
11.Keith, Duncan D, CHI, 28, 13 yrs, $8,000,000
12.Thornton, Joe F, SAN, 32, 3 yrs, $8,000,000
13.Stamkos, Steven F, TBL, 21, 5 yrs, $8,000,000
14.Hossa, Marian F, CHI, 32, 12 yrs, $7,900,000
15.Zetterberg, Henrik F, DET, 31, 12 yrs, $7,750,000
16.Staal, Eric F, CAR, 27, 7 yrs, $7,750,000
17.Pronger, Chris D, PHI, 37, 7 yrs, $7,600,000
18.Gomez, Scott F, MTL, 31, 7 yrs, $7,500,000
19.Gaborik, Marian F, NYR, 29, 5 yrs, $7,500,000
20.Nash, Rick F, CLB, 27, 8 yrs, $7,500,000
21.Weber, Shea D, NAS, 26, 1 yr, $7,500,000
22.Koivu, Mikko F, MIN, 28, 7 yrs, $7,290,000
23.Campbell, Brian D, FLA, 32, 8 yrs, $7,142,875
24.Iginla, Jarome F, CGY, 34, 5 yrs, $7,000,000
25.Briere, Daniel F, PHI, 34, 8 yrs, $7,000,000

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Old
11-08-2011, 05:33 PM
  #27
joshjull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
The problem I see is that goalie performance year to year is so fickle that locking up a really good goalie doesn't mean that you'll get solid, clutch goaltending when you need it.

Let's look at how the highest paid goalies by cap hit are doing so far this season using Save% as the rating stat:

1 - Lundqvist - $6.875M - 16th in Save% .929
2 - Ward - $6.3M - 27th in Save% .912
3 - Miller - $6.25M - 21st in Save% .922
4 - Backstrom - $6M - 28th in Save% .912
5 - Kiprusoff - $5.833M - 20th in Save% .925
6 - Bryzgalov - $5.66M - 40th in Save% .893
7 - Huet - $5.625M --> exiled to Europe
8 - Luongo - $5.33M - 39th in Save% .894
9 - Brodeur - $5.2M - 47th in Save% .872
10 - Thomas - $5M - 11th in Save% .931

Most of the top 10 Save% guys are backups:

1 - Josh Harding - Backstrom's #2 in Minny
2 - Khabibulin - 15th in cap hit at $3.75M
3 - Martin Biron - Lundqvist's back up in NY
4 - Jhonas Enroth
5 - Jacob Markstrom - Florida's GOTF that is behind Theodore & Clemmensen for the moment
6 - Dan Ellis - Hiller's #2 in Anaheim
7 - Jonathan Quick - 30th in cap hit at $1.8M
8 - Brian Elliott - Halak's #2 in St Louis
9 - Kari Lehtonen - 17th in cap hit at $3.55M
10 - Marc-Andre Fleury - 11th in cap hit at $5M
The problem is how goalies are evaluated and compared. Its almost impossible to come up with an objective measure to compare them by.


No one would argue that forward that put up 25pts in 25gms as having accomplished the same thing as a forward that put up 74pts in 74gms. Thats becasue we all understand its much harder to maintain a point per game pace over 74gms than it is over 25gms.


Yet no one thinks twice about doing that very same thing with goalies. Last year's top 30 goalies in GAA and in save % played in as little as 25gms and as many as 74gms. Does it really make sense to rate what Schneider did in 25gms (.929) as being better than what Price did in 74gms (.923)? I don't think makes any sense at all.


Last edited by joshjull: 11-08-2011 at 05:50 PM.
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Old
11-09-2011, 04:11 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Then what you're arguing is really kind of pointless and semantical. Okay, so no team ever went out with that as their goal and built a team consciously with $2M goaltending. Nevertheless, several teams have shown, based on who was on the ice winning the cup for them, that that's something you could do. So why argue it's an invalid theory for building a team? If it plainly could work, who cares that Detroit and Chicago didn't attempt to build their teams that way? They both put el cheapo guys in the crease when it counted and it worked.

And it kind of follows very intuitively from there that if you are going to try that route, why waste tons of money on your backup when you can put it somewhere else?
To be criticized for points I'm not making is incredibly annoying. I will try to better explain my points and add some context.


1) On goalie compensation ---> In the Miller debates some of Miller's biggest critics have argued his salary impedes our ability to build a Stanley Cup winner. As a counterpoint to this I've shown that the last 5 Cups winners have spent roughly 9-12% of their cap space on goalies. Our current allotment for goalies takes up roughly 10% of our cap space. So obviously a team can build a Cup winner spending what we are on goalies.


2) The Detroit "model" myth ---> I'm not arguing against the idea of building a team with cheap goalies. I'm pointing out that Detroit has never won a Cup doing that. The Detroit goalie model thing for me is a factual pet peeve. Using this model to bolster an arguemnt against Miller and his contract. Posters can't argue that the Detroit goaltending model is a proven way to build a Cup winner when that model has never won a Cup for Detroit or anyone else.


I'm not commenting on how good or bad a strategy it is to spend less on goalies. I'm also not arguing you need to have high paid starters. Nor am I arguing that playing the lesser paid of your goalies in the playoffs is a bad idea. But it seems like , based on your responses, that those are the points you think I'm making.


Last edited by joshjull: 11-09-2011 at 04:34 AM.
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Old
11-09-2011, 07:05 AM
  #29
haseoke39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
To be criticized for points I'm not making is incredibly annoying. I will try to better explain my points and add some context.


1) On goalie compensation ---> In the Miller debates some of Miller's biggest critics have argued his salary impedes our ability to build a Stanley Cup winner. As a counterpoint to this I've shown that the last 5 Cups winners have spent roughly 9-12% of their cap space on goalies. Our current allotment for goalies takes up roughly 10% of our cap space. So obviously a team can build a Cup winner spending what we are on goalies.


2) The Detroit "model" myth ---> I'm not arguing against the idea of building a team with cheap goalies. I'm pointing out that Detroit has never won a Cup doing that. The Detroit goalie model thing for me is a factual pet peeve. Using this model to bolster an arguemnt against Miller and his contract. Posters can't argue that the Detroit goaltending model is a proven way to build a Cup winner when that model has never won a Cup for Detroit or anyone else.


I'm not commenting on how good or bad a strategy it is to spend less on goalies. I'm also not arguing you need to have high paid starters. Nor am I arguing that playing the lesser paid of your goalies in the playoffs is a bad idea. But it seems like , based on your responses, that those are the points you think I'm making.
Alright. So (1) teams can win the cup spending lots of money on goalies, and (2) Detroit never technically followed the model that they're given credit for.

I agree to all that. I'm just saying, they're kind of de minimis points, and the way you presented your argument made it seem like you were really going for the jugular here. Saying "the model is a myth" tends to imply that it's a bad or an invalid model, not just that it was never technically followed correctly. I don't see how that fact really tends to deflate anyone's argument. Sure, the Sabres could win the cup paying Miller tons of money to sit on the bench, but why would that be a good idea? If - presuming the most unlikely here - if Enroth could hold down the fort in the playoffs, and you were going to bet on that, why wouldn't you try to get a return for Miller?

When you get down to it like this, considering your argument, saying that the "Detroit model" hasn't worked because nobody has technically used it is a far cry from saying it wouldn't work or shouldn't be how the Sabres proceed. Ample evidence still shows that it should work, unless you plan to argue that Detroit and Chicago wouldn't have won those cups without the moral support of Hasek and Huet from the bench or something silly.

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Old
11-09-2011, 03:27 PM
  #30
WhoIsJimBob
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabretip View Post
Per CapGeek, top 25 salaries this season:
I was looking at cap hit to avoid the whole "Christian Ehrhoff is not worth $10M per season" discussion.

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