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(Chernobly Edition) Saturday, November 12. Devils at Capitals. Verizon Center. 7pm

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11-13-2011, 07:11 PM
  #376
NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
How in the blue hell are Edmonton and Panthers considered top defensive teams?

Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh and New Jersey are the top defensive teams you played.

Detroit : -6 Fenwick -12 CORSI
Vancouver : -13 Fenwick -18 CORSI
Pittsburgh : -20 Fenwick -25 CORSI
New Jersey : -8 Fenwick -13 CORSI
New Jersey : -4 Fenwick +4 CORSI

They have gotten blitzed in possession against good defensive teams.
CORSI is a terrible stat, IMO, especially over a small sample size. Edmonton and Florida are both top 10 in GAA. So yeah, top defensive teams. New Jersey is 17th.

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11-13-2011, 07:13 PM
  #377
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
The leader in hockey stats, Gabe Desjardins, has pretty much proven that over the course of the season shot quality from one team to another does not exist. Scoring chances for the most part are proportional to shot totals.
I'd love to see this proof. And it's far from universal believed that Gabe Desjardins is the leader in hockey stats.

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11-13-2011, 07:22 PM
  #378
Jason MacIsaac
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
I'd love to see this proof. And it's far from universal believed that Gabe Desjardins is the leader in hockey stats.
I don't see any other guys getting paid 500 dollars an hour by 5 NHL teams to do contracted work.

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11-13-2011, 07:32 PM
  #379
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
I don't see any other guys getting paid 500 dollars an hour by 5 NHL teams to do contracted work.
I can't believe they waste my CI money like that!

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11-13-2011, 07:46 PM
  #380
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
Edit: Since I last looked at my numbers Detroit and Montreal seems to have a normal PDO or even slightly positive. My apologies.
But both have also turned it around lately, right? I thought you meant that their outcomes were in line with internals and not that the outcomes have been unsustainable.

Washington had a historically high SH% just two seasons ago IIRC so if any team is going to operate successfully in the regular season in that fashion this team remains one of the safer bets.

I don't really pour over the numbers too deeply but I would put Washington behind Pittsburgh and Boston in the East when it comes to balance and possession games. Part of it is personnel--particularly a relatively weak second line from a consistency standpoint--but execution and work rate could be quite a bit sharper.

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11-13-2011, 07:50 PM
  #381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Langway View Post
But both have also turned it around lately, right? I thought you meant that their outcomes were in line with internals and not that the outcomes have been unsustainable.

Washington had a historically high SH% just two seasons ago IIRC so if any team is going to operate successfully in the regular season in that fashion this team remains one of the safer bets.

I don't really pour over the numbers too deeply but I would put Washington behind Pittsburgh and Boston in the East when it comes to balance and possession games. Part of it is personnel--particularly a relatively weak second line from a consistency standpoint--but execution and work rate could be quite a bit sharper.
I had a hard time reading Boston before the season started. Their shooting % has fluctuated more then any other team in the NHL over the last 5 years. Last year they shot over their head and had .940 sv% in nets. So far this season they are a better possession team then the one that won the cup, who knew.

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11-13-2011, 08:12 PM
  #382
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the caps (finally) have adequate personnel to put together a quick D zone exit, transition game, and good cycle in the offensive zone in the form of a mix of speedy and durable, grinding forwards and balanced D pairs with overall good puck movement.

they have had trouble, over the last couple of seasons, getting zone entry versus trapping teams aside from mojo, backstrom or green just carrying the puck.

there's no reason that the caps can't fix that aspect of their game and, for what it's worth, the coaching staff has made it clear in post-game pressers that they understand when each of these components of the caps game is deficient.

it hasn't happened yet because the 2011-2012 NHL season is 15 games old. three or four games defies any reasonable statistical analysis, regardless of what metric you use (if you believe that ice hockey - in general - is amenable to such reasonable statistical analyses).

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11-13-2011, 08:20 PM
  #383
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
The leader in hockey stats, Gabe Desjardins, has pretty much proven that over the course of the season shot quality from one team to another does not exist.
Proven?

Then over the course of a season every team would have very similar shooting percentages. But they don't...

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11-13-2011, 08:43 PM
  #384
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I think he means the percentage of total shots that are quality. Say league mean is 45% and the lowest/highest is 40/50. (spitballing for clarity). I'd be interested in seeing the distribution. Also those numbers would be just based off of shot location I'm gathering. Halpy shotting from the doorstep isn't going to get u the same result as semin (or chimmer!). So basically shooting percentages of teams plus total shots would be determining factor of success... Which is almost a duh...

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11-13-2011, 09:20 PM
  #385
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Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Proven?

Then over the course of a season every team would have very similar shooting percentages. But they don't...
Sample size still isn't big enough, if you flip a coin 100 times it is possible it to be heads 60 times. On ice sh% for players above replacement level tend to pull towards a 7.9% figure.

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11-13-2011, 10:58 PM
  #386
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
I don't see any other guys getting paid 500 dollars an hour by 5 NHL teams to do contracted work.
And he's not being paid by 30 NHL teams, correct? So it's not universal, as I said.

Again, I'd love to see the "proof" that shot quality doesn't vary from team to team. Sounds to me an awful lot like the statistical "proof" by the baseball statisticians that no players are more clutch than others.

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11-13-2011, 11:07 PM
  #387
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
Sample size still isn't big enough, if you flip a coin 100 times it is possible it to be heads 60 times. On ice sh% for players above replacement level tend to pull towards a 7.9% figure.
Isn't big enough? How big does it have to be? 2500 shots is 30.5 per game, which is more or less average for the league.

So an entire season isn't a large enough sample size but then you make arguments based on a sample size of just a couple games? Dude, come on...

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11-14-2011, 08:17 AM
  #388
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Maybe Jason sees a lack of a tactical approach by Bruce. He tried to back it up with stats and stirred the hornets nest, but the stats don't tell the tale with high end skill players that just score no matter what many nights. Looking at stats alone you would think we would have made the finals the past few years. It doesnt change anything, and the biggest caps fan has yet to see Bruce adjust tactically enough to make it out of the second round.

Bruce is far from alone in struggling to deal with a well run defensive minded system. I haven't seen a tactical approach on how Bruces deals with it, and I bet Jason doesn't either.

The answer may be that Bruce relies on a very dynamic approach to offense, making it hard to defend. It starts with offensive defensemen that can flat out get pucks up and out, by skating or passing it out. Individual play. Bruce has a unique approach to coaching and has gotten a long leash in letting it play itself out. He has become more tactical, but his biggest hurdle still faces him, breaking out against a good neutral zone D. He is resisting make us dump and chasers.


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11-14-2011, 10:34 AM
  #389
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thats really funny as i recall reading posts on the gdt blasting boudreau's lack of ability to coach a beat of the neutral zone trap because all the caps were doing was dumping and chasing.

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11-14-2011, 01:13 PM
  #390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
The leader in hockey stats, Gabe Desjardins, has pretty much proven that over the course of the season shot quality from one team to another does not exist. Scoring chances for the most part are proportional to shot totals.
This might be the worst posts I've ever seen on these boards tried to pass off as an intelligent post. In the NHL, there is almost no correlation between outshooting an opponent and winning. Any team in the NHL is going to sit back and encourage shots from the outside when nursing a lead. Any team that is trailing is going to fire shots at the net in hopes of a lucky bounce/deflection. Just looking back at the games over the weekend (Friday/Saturday/Sunday) the team that won the shot total won exactly one more game than the team that lost the shot board if you take out shootouts (which no one won during open play).

By your logic, the Caps defense was twice as bad on Friday night than it was Saturday, and I don't think anyone on here is going to agree with that.

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11-14-2011, 01:38 PM
  #391
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
thats really funny as i recall reading posts on the gdt blasting boudreau's lack of ability to coach a beat of the neutral zone trap because all the caps were doing was dumping and chasing.
Yeah it was really funny. But not because we hadn't practiced it much if at all, and were sporadic in our efforts to consciously do it across all 4 lines for a game, let alone two lines for a period.

It was really funny because the dump and chase must be one of the easier ways for a team to create scoring chances. Only as a team, it didnt work for us. Even if it did work for a few goals or wins, we went right back to carrying the puck into a wall of defenders. Fact is our top players largely have not, do not, or will not consistently dump it in. So I don't think Bruce was laughing with us.

It's not easy to coach when you run into tacticians with well prepared disciplined teams. Bruce probably hated the D&C more than the few posters you mention, but it doesnt mean they were wrong. Some just hold a higher standard for what they expect offensively for a team with our arsenal.

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11-14-2011, 02:16 PM
  #392
Jason MacIsaac
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I'm not going to sit here try to explain this over again. I seriously suggest some of you visit http://www.japersrink.com/

Others, it's been great. Good luck in the future.

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11-14-2011, 02:27 PM
  #393
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jason, you are a better hockey fan than those of us. here. i am sure you know that.

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11-14-2011, 03:09 PM
  #394
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Very wierd thinking that Caps fans don't know about that site. Not sure what a main page link is supposed to direct people to understand someone's PoV.

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