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Would Montreal be better to play with an offensive sytem ?

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11-13-2011, 05:04 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Basically, given the results so far, firing Martin because of his "defensive system" makes no sense whatsoever, injuries or not.

I'm trying to understand the logic in the notion that a system that has generated good offense with a depleted lineup won't generate at least as much offense with more talent.
Yeah i guess, we should stick to the 8th place finish system. Thats definitely working.

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11-13-2011, 05:10 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by AHMB Prez View Post
Yeah i guess, we should stick to the 8th place finish system. Thats definitely working.
I'm sorry, I was assuming we were having a rational discussion about what was actually happening to the Habs this year, and not a knee-jerk reaction based on something that didn't even actually happen (as you'll remember, the Habs finished 6th last year...)

Montreal has the 4th-best 5-on-5 goal-scoring ratio in the league, a stat that's perfectly in line with their underlying numbers. They are strong both offensively and defensively at even strength. That doesn't exactly point to a system so weak that it should be a firing offense.

If you want to have some sort of marginally reasonable basis for a discussion on firing Martin, at least attack some area where the team has actually has shown any indication of being weak, such as the PP; then we can get in a discussion as to whether the signs that it'll turn around are to be believed. Attacking the coach on what's been the team's strongest suit thus far this season is quite frankly asinine.

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11-13-2011, 05:37 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I'm sorry, I was assuming we were having a rational discussion about what was actually happening to the Habs this year, and not a knee-jerk reaction based on something that didn't even actually happen (as you'll remember, the Habs finished 6th last year...)

Montreal has the 4th-best 5-on-5 goal-scoring ratio in the league, a stat that's perfectly in line with their underlying numbers. They are strong both offensively and defensively at even strength. That doesn't exactly point to a system so weak that it should be a firing offense.

If you want to have some sort of marginally reasonable basis for a discussion on firing Martin, at least attack some area where the team has actually has shown any indication of being weak, such as the PP; then we can get in a discussion as to whether the signs that it'll turn around are to be believed. Attacking the coach on what's been the team's strongest suit thus far this season is quite frankly asinine.
How can it be knee jerk as you state since i have been against the JM signing since it was first announced on RDS ? And how could anyone have an opinion differing from yours right ?

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11-13-2011, 05:49 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by AHMB Prez View Post
How can it be knee jerk as you state since i have been against the JM signing since it was first announced on RDS ?
Okay, so this is not actually based on his performance?

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Originally Posted by AHMB Prez View Post
And how could anyone have an opinion differing from yours right ?
I don't know -- you explain to me why it makes sense to attack the system of one of the best 5-on-5 clubs in the league this year, and maybe I'll understand.

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11-13-2011, 05:52 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Montreal has the 4th-best 5-on-5 goal-scoring ratio in the league, a stat that's perfectly in line with their underlying numbers. They are strong both offensively and defensively at even strength. That doesn't exactly point to a system so weak that it should be a firing offense.
I know the ratio is good but we are 15th in 5-on-5 scoring. Sixteen teams make the playoffs, so we are far from dominating as far as 5-on-5 scoring goes. In fact we are borderline mediocre.

When you break it down even further, Montreal has scored 6 more goals than it has allowed at 5-on-5. What makes the ratio look good is the fact that Montreal has allowed fewer goals than many teams at 5-on-5.

Washington, for example, has a better differential but a poorer ratio.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on the ratios vs the actual differentials.

Thanks.

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11-13-2011, 05:56 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Okay, so this is not actually based on his performance?



I don't know -- you explain to me why it makes sense to attack the system of one of the best 5-on-5 clubs in the league this year, and maybe I'll understand.
Uh ? Am i missing something here. They are 12th.

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11-13-2011, 06:31 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by HCH View Post
I know the ratio is good but we are 15th in 5-on-5 scoring. Sixteen teams make the playoffs, so we are far from dominating as far as 5-on-5 scoring goes. In fact we are borderline mediocre.
Well, you have to be careful with that. Montreal was top-10 2 games ago. As it is, nhl.com puts them in 15th, but they're really tied for 13th.

It's early in the season, so one or two games can still make a large difference. It would be helpful if we had easy access to 5-on-5 goals-per-game stats; Montreal would be much closer to 10th by this metric. They are 10th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes of play, with a shot volume that suggests their current scoring rate should continue (unlike, say, Toronto).

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Just wondering what your thoughts are on the ratios vs the actual differentials.
Tricky question. On the face of it, it seems to me that a team that has a better ratio is going to win more games over time; at the same time, there's nothing inherently wrong with a high-event team if it still outscores the opposition, and high-event games do tend to favor the better team more.

I'd be curious to see a breakdown of Montreal's and Washington's numbers by game states. While there's no such thing as an unimportant goal, I suspect a lower-event team like Montreal might be better at keeping a lead and a higher-event team like Washington might be better at overcoming one (that's purely an educated guess, so take it with the requisite amount of salt).

At the same time, Washington being high-event seems to be due more to great shooting and mediocre goaltending; Montreal both takes more shots and allows fewer.


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11-13-2011, 06:36 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by AHMB Prez View Post
Uh ? Am i missing something here. They are 12th.
Uh, yeah, you are; Montreal has the 4th-best 5-on-5 goal ratio in the league, being around 10th in goals for per game and firmly in the top-10 for goals against per game at even strength, making them one of the best 5-on-5 clubs in the league.

They are 12th in the standings, which is almost entirely due to their PP not being able to buy a goal. The standings don't always reflect how good teams are, especially early in the season.

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11-13-2011, 07:08 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Well, you have to be careful with that. Montreal was top-10 2 games ago. As it is, nhl.com puts them in 15th, but they're really tied for 13th.

It's early in the season, so one or two games can still make a large difference. It would be helpful if we had easy access to 5-on-5 goals-per-game stats; Montreal would be much closer to 10th by this metric. They are 10th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes of play, with a shot volume that suggests their current scoring rate should continue (unlike, say, Toronto).



Tricky question. On the face of it, it seems to me that a team that has a better ratio is going to win more games over time; at the same time, there's nothing inherently wrong with a high-event team if it still outscores the opposition, and high-event games do tend to favor the better team more.

I'd be curious to see a breakdown of Montreal's and Washington's numbers by game states. While there's no such thing as an unimportant goal, I suspect a lower-event team like Montreal might be better at keeping a lead and a higher-event team like Washington might be better at overcoming one (that's purely an educated guess, so take it with the requisite amount of salt).

At the same time, Washington being high-event seems to be due more to great shooting and mediocre goaltending; Montreal both takes more shots and allows fewer.
We win more when we're outshot or when the shot totals are closer. Quite an odd trend.

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11-13-2011, 07:37 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by AHMB Prez View Post
Yeah i guess, we should stick to the 8th place finish system. Thats definitely working.
Well, I guess the flipside to that argument could be that without it we'd be finishing 9th...

As for our offense we are (as usual) bottom 3rd of the league and have been all year long. Hopefully Markov comes back and plays well. We desperately need help esp on the PP and that's his bread and butter so it should help as long as he can come back at full strength and actually stay that way.

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11-13-2011, 11:14 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by AHMB Prez View Post
Uh ? Am i missing something here. They are 12th.
AHMB.

Its not about winning the Cup. To some, its about making the playoffs and then losing in round one and calling it a success. To some, its about some meaningless stat looking good.

There is a core group of posters here who have no idea about winning a Cup in Montreal. They never have seen it. So.......mediocrity (playoffs and then out) and decent "stats" replace the idea of winning the Stanley Cup.

What many people overlook is that hockey is not a zero-sum game. Just because you focus on offense does not take away from defense. And vice versa.

We just happen to be stuck with a coach who is all defense (and not very good of a system at that because it is being forced on a team that does not have the size to execute it) all the time.

There are coaches who can deliver both offense and defense.

Great thread.

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11-13-2011, 11:29 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
AHMB.

Its not about winning the Cup. To some, its about making the playoffs and then losing in round one and calling it a success. To some, its about some meaningless stat looking good.

There is a core group of posters here who have no idea about winning a Cup in Montreal. They never have seen it. So.......mediocrity (playoffs and then out) and decent "stats" replace the idea of winning the Stanley Cup.

What many people overlook is that hockey is not a zero-sum game. Just because you focus on offense does not take away from defense. And vice versa.

We just happen to be stuck with a coach who is all defense (and not very good of a system at that because it is being forced on a team that does not have the size to execute it) all the time.

There are coaches who can deliver both offense and defense.

Great thread.
Kind of funny that with all your years of experience you're so out to lunch on evaluating the team you apparently love.

I mean, obviously if our team didn't execute the system properly, there would be signs of it.
We are #4 in ES scoring ratio, we are 10th in shots far and 3rd in shots against. We are tied at 14 for Goals for at Even Strength with Detroit. We are 6th in GA at ES.
Surely, those are stats of a team that's struggling within its system..

Your hate of Martin/Gauthier is simply blinding you. I don't like either of them, but I can certainly recognize their good doings.

Our team, ironically, has struggled with Special Teams. Our PK is getting back on track, hopefully our PP also will. Once they are, the Habs will become a top team in the East.

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11-14-2011, 06:58 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
Kind of funny that with all your years of experience you're so out to lunch on evaluating the team you apparently love.

I mean, obviously if our team didn't execute the system properly, there would be signs of it.
We are #4 in ES scoring ratio, we are 10th in shots far and 3rd in shots against. We are tied at 14 for Goals for at Even Strength with Detroit. We are 6th in GA at ES.
Surely, those are stats of a team that's struggling within its system..

Your hate of Martin/Gauthier is simply blinding you. I don't like either of them, but I can certainly recognize their good doings.

Our team, ironically, has struggled with Special Teams. Our PK is getting back on track, hopefully our PP also will. Once they are, the Habs will become a top team in the East.
That just makes your point right there. Think about it.

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11-14-2011, 07:51 AM
  #114
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Didn't think it was something to be excited about, but it is definitely improvement. Stats aside, if you want to base it off your subjective observations, I'm sure you'll agree the team has looked more solid at ES than during past seasons.
In previous years, our team never looked that good 5 on 5. They heavily relied on top goaltending and the PP.
This year is different because of the depth we've added. AK's injury is leaving a big hole on the 3rd line, one that has spent most of its time in the offensive zone. We didn't have a great depth line in previous years. We had moments with PHD like lines, but they never dominated and could tell it was only bound to regress.
With a healthy squad, I have no doubt that we can be a top ES team unlike previous years.
It's not just Cole and MaxPac, there's DD and Eller that contribute plenty of offensive control and possession.



I'm not sure if he stifles them. Maybe a little bit, but I have a hard time seeing how Gionta and Cammy would get more scoring chances on a different system. Gionta could easily have had double the amount of goals, and likewise for Cammy. Perhaps their linemates aren't ideal for them, which is why their production might not be as high as one would hope. I don't Plekanec could produce more than the 70pt mark, it seems like a very respectable plateau for him.
Like I said, I'm not quite sure these guys are stifled. I think this is true of AK, and others that have left like Lats and SK, but not our current top players.

As for our Defense, I think, with such a young group, we have no choice but to help them. I understand that their are a very offensive minded group, for the most part, but if Diaz, Weber, Emelin and Gill were left to themselves, they would struggle a lot more imo. I wouldn't be against trying it though, all I'm saying is that I understand why Martin is doing it as so.

I'm not a fan of Martin by any stretch of the imagination actually. I would welcome a stronger forecheck as it plays right into our strength, speed. I don't like Martin's style at all, but I certainly don't think he's bad. I also think he deserves a lot more credit than given because we've exceeded expectations two years in a row. I don't remember one person that remained confident in our team when Markov and the Gorges went down last season, including myself. So, taking that team to a 6th place finish was an accomplishment.
Learned something interesting this year watching the rugby world cup with my buddies for UK, Ozz, etc. They all kept saying 'support!' 'Support!' I asked them about this, and they said that no one player in rugby is expected to act alone, you must always go in to support the player with the ball.

Different sport, but there is one thing JM preaches above all else: As a forward, come back and support your D man as he tries to pick it up deep and clear it.

It is one thing I like about JM's system, and it also explains perhaps why we don't fore check as aggressively as we would like. We can't, as we need to be back to support the D.

If you heave 2 or 3 great D who can always beat the fore check, pick it up deep and move it out, fine, (See Savard, Serge) but we and few other teams do.

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11-14-2011, 08:40 AM
  #115
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lol I posted almost this exact though last year and everyone lost their ****. Oh look now.

Like I said before Montreal doesn't have the defense to play a defense first style.
Actually, you might be 100% wrong. See my post above. It is precisely because we don't have enough experienced and excellent puck moving D that we have to play a back check full D support style.

We'd get killed leaving our current D group to fend for themselves in our zone, while we waited at the blue line or red line for a stretch pass that won't come, or fore checked all the time with 2 guys that could not get back in time to help the D if they fail. And no, you can't get back in time, no matter how fast you are.

Your post = fail.

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Did anyone notice how the Pred attacked, especially early on and kept putting 2 even 3 guys in deep? It gave the Habs at least 8 odd man rushes tonight.

Love it that the defensive system wins this game. Mind you it's only one game and a lot of good posters here are promoting an all out offensive system with some really good arguments but tonight I payed attention and I was really impressed with how we managed the storm down low and we were able to get that puck out and break out with 2 on 1 and 3 on 2s a lot getting preds players caught deep. Made the difference in the end.
Now we're talking. Some people get it. See my posts below on D support.

When our D gets really really good, 3 guys who can hustle back, beat the fore checker and move it out themselves, then we can talk stretch offense. We do not have this D.

We are making a big mistake thinking it's only forward speed and skill that allows for an offense first system. It is not. It is D speed and skill that does first, combined with fast forwards. We are not there yet with our D, but we are close I hope.

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Pretty much. And there's a reason Pierre McGuire and his attack attack, attack system is employed by the media and not an NHL team.
It's not complicated. If two guys get burned by a good D pair, they've got 200 feet to skate back to pick up 2 forwards who started 25 feet ahead of them. In the NHL? Forget it, you're toast.

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It's not complicated. If two guys get burned by a good D pair, they've got 200 feet to skate back to pick up 2 forwards who started 25 feet ahead of them. In the NHL? Forget it, you're toast.
Sorry to quote myself, but guess who's learning this hard NHL lesson? Guy Boucher.

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11-14-2011, 09:15 AM
  #116
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Sorry to quote myself, but guess who's learning this hard NHL lesson? Guy Boucher.
I think Guy Boucher is always learning and adapting. He just doesn't seem to be someone who is close-minded and will never change. So far he has had a reasonable amount of success at every level where he has coached.

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