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DEBATE: Is the cap going down next season and how much? (And can we afford Parise?)

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11-14-2011, 03:30 PM
  #1
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DEBATE: Is the cap going down next season and how much? (And can we afford Parise?)

This argument pops up everywhere, so I decided to create a thread just for it.

These are my arguments.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerBoy View Post
Zach Parise? The cap is coming down. Brooks quoted a unnamed NHL team official that the players will get 48-50 percent and another rollback.

Do you expect the NHL to just state for the record their official position? When you see a house for sale, is that normally the final price or the starting negotiating price?

If the NHL is saying it's 48-50% right now, it means their starting negotiating position will be 50%. Why not 48%? Because they already signaled that they would be ok more than 48% when saying 48-50%.

NHLPA will counter with a midway point between the current cap and what the NHL wants, which would be about 54%. Then both sides will complain publicly about each other, they will issue threats, and they will scare the fans. In the end, they will come up with a mid-point between the NHL's 50% offer and the NHLPA's 54% offer, which will be right about 52%. This is my educated guess as someone who has to negotiate every day for a living.


Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerBoy View Post
Even with the $125M more from NBC and the $50M for Winnipeg ticket sales,the cap is coming down. Average ticket price in Winnipwg is $82. 15,000 seats. 41 games. $50M. Revenue was $3B last seasson. 57% of that goes to the players. Subtract for benefits.
Those $175 million would mean 6% additional revenue for the NHL. That's very significant.

And Winnipeg's revenue won't go up just from seat sales, but also from the merchandise sale. Since nobody bought anything Jet-related (jerseys, tshirts, hats, banners, clothes with logos, etc) in 15 years, there is a run on all that stuff.

Plus, the rest of the league is growing a little bit as well. There will be several percentages of growth outside of the NBC and Winnipeg. Certainly the NBA lockout should help. It doesn't mean that the NBA lockout will make the NHL grow by 50%, but it's not unreasonable to expect the NHL to grow 2-3% because of the NBA lockout.


But let's say the NHL sees absolutely no growth this year other than the NBC and Winnipeg.

If the players' revenue share goes down 10% (57%-5.7% to 51.3%), the cap goes down to $57.9 without any revenue increase, but an additional 6% revenue would bring up the cap to $61.3. That's a loss of $3. This is the max that the cap will go down.

Even if there are no rollbacks and the only thing we are allowed to get rid of the Drury and Redden dead-weight, that still allows us to give Parise $7 and have a little of breathing room.

FORWARDS (13)
Zach Parise ($7,000,000) Brad Richards ($6,666,667) Marian Gaborik ($7,500,000)
Brandon Dubinsky ($4,200,000) Artem Anisimov ($1,875,000) Ryan Callahan ($4,275,000)
Chris Kreider ($1,200,000) Derek Stepan ($875,000) Carl Hagelin ($875,000)
Michael Rupp ($1,500,000) Brian Boyle ($1,700,000) Brandon Prust ($1,800,000)
Chad Kolarik ($525,000)

DEFENSEMEN (7)
Marc Staal ($3,975,000) Daniel Girardi ($3,325,000)
Ryan McDonagh ($1,300,000) Mike Sauer ($1,250,000)
Michael Del Zotto ($1,087,500) Tim Erixon ($1,750,000)
Blake Parlett ($537,500)

GOALTENDERS (2)
Henrik Lundqvist ($6,875,000)
Martin Biron ($875,000)


This roster has a cap hit that's under just $61. As stated before, the worst the cap is going down to is ~$61.5. This means we can sign Parise and still give Prust a million dollar raise.

Worst case, if we are stuck with the Drury hit and the cap goes down $3 and there are no salary rollbacks, then just don't re-sign Prust or trade away Boyle or Rupp. So even under the worst circumstance, we still have $7 to give Parise.

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Old
11-14-2011, 03:33 PM
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It's interesting to look at the best case scenario too, not just the worst case.


1) We get out from under the Redden and Drury hits.
2) NBC, Winnipeg, NBA lockout and the general revenue give rise to the revenue by as much as it did last year, which was 13.2%.
3) The revenue share goes down to the mid-point between it's current 57% and the 50% the NHL wants right now. That's 53.5%.
4) The above means the actual cap goes up $5, even though revenue share is down, and we are freed from Drury's $3.7 hit. This gives the Rangers an additional $8.7

We clear space by getting rid of Wolski, MZA, Feds and Avery. That's $9 addition.

Prust gets a million dollar raise.
Forward rookies Kreider, Hagelin and Kolarik get $2.5.
Defense rookies Erixon and Parlett get a couple hundred more than Stralman and Eminger are getting right now.


This leaves the Rangers with $14 to play with. Under this scenario, they can sign both Parise and Suter.


I'm not saying this will happen. But it's no more unrealistic than the idea that the cap will just go down $3 because there was no revenue increase and no salary rollback.

The truth will lie somewhere in between. This means that while it likely won't be impossible to sign both Suter and Parise, there is a very high likelihood that we'll have the money to sign one of them.

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11-14-2011, 03:35 PM
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Didn't they already include NBC into this season's cap?

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11-14-2011, 03:37 PM
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chris kreider is the reason the rangers won't be looking to sign parise. we dont need to spend another 7 mil. we've got our own guys to pay in the next few years and kreider along with duby and hell even AA on the wing are the future of this club.

id love to have parise but kreider WILL be a player for this team soon. he's just got to much going for him not to be an impact player.

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11-14-2011, 03:38 PM
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Not every big-name free agent that hits the market is always going to be a NYR target. Nor is there any significant evidence that

A) Parise will actually make it to free agency and
B) That even if we were to submit a competitive bid, he is likely to have dozens of offers tabled. He could go to just about any team he wanted.

We need to stop treating each impending UFA like we own them, or with a flick of the cap, could or should own them. We did it with Hossa, with Kovalchuk, and yes, with Richards but 1/3 is not a sterling success rate.

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11-14-2011, 03:40 PM
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Parise would be great, but, even IF the cap stayed the same, this team already has too many major salary commitments; each of Gaborik, Richards, and Lundqvist have a cap hit great than $6.5M. Add Parise in to the mix at approximately $7M, and you're spending ~$25.5M on four players.

Just bring up Kreider and release Wolski. Saves $2M+ on the cap while actually filling with talent.

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11-14-2011, 03:42 PM
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I have to agree that we can't put this kind of money towards both of those guys. We'd just have too much money on our FA and will not be able to sign our core that we have now and in the future when it comes down to it.

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11-14-2011, 03:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenith View Post
Parise would be great, but, even IF the cap stayed the same, this team already has too many major salary commitments; each of Gaborik, Richards, and Lundqvist have a cap hit great than $6.5M. Add Parise in to the mix at approximately $7M, and you're spending ~$25.5M on four players.

Just bring up Kreider and release Wolski. Saves $2M+ on the cap while actually filling with talent.
Those 4 create a vacuum, and a serious problem within a team where we are trying to hang onto our young guys as they develop. What happens when Stepan, Anisimov, Sauer, McDonagh come under contract again? Would you trade those 4 players for Parise right now, to be replaced by league minimum players like Deveaux?

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11-14-2011, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaneone View Post
Didn't they already include NBC into this season's cap?
No, they have not yet.

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11-14-2011, 03:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLU Hockey View Post
Not every big-name free agent that hits the market is always going to be a NYR target. Nor is there any significant evidence that

A) Parise will actually make it to free agency and
B) That even if we were to submit a competitive bid, he is likely to have dozens of offers tabled. He could go to just about any team he wanted.

We need to stop treating each impending UFA like we own them, or with a flick of the cap, could or should own them. We did it with Hossa, with Kovalchuk, and yes, with Richards but 1/3 is not a sterling success rate.

Generally speaking, I agree with you. But the question is not "does Parise want to come to the Rangers?" The question is whether we can afford to put in a legitimate bid, and we can.

Now, there will be other teams who also will be able to put in legitimate bids. Whether he chooses to come to the Rangers or another team is a different question.

But people here are writing that we can't afford Parise or Suter no matter what, when the reality is that we most certainly can... if he wants to come to us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenith View Post
Parise would be great, but, even IF the cap stayed the same, this team already has too many major salary commitments; each of Gaborik, Richards, and Lundqvist have a cap hit great than $6.5M. Add Parise in to the mix at approximately $7M, and you're spending ~$25.5M on four players.
Two years after Parise hits free agency, Gaborik and Rupp will be off the books, saving us $9. We do not have a single player hitting unrestricted free agency before then.

If money will be tight, we are better off going with Parise than Gaborik because he's 2.5 years younger and in better health. And while we have both of them for 2 years, this team will be a Cup favorite both years. If we sign Parise, I bet we will win the Cup before Gabby is gone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SLU Hockey View Post
Those 4 create a vacuum, and a serious problem within a team where we are trying to hang onto our young guys as they develop. What happens when Stepan, Anisimov, Sauer, McDonagh come under contract again? Would you trade those 4 players for Parise right now, to be replaced by league minimum players like Deveaux?
All of them would be RFAs who wouldn't get significant pay raises. There will almost definitely be a rise in the salary cap in 2 years because NHL revenue will rise. Again, worst case, we trade Boyle, Prust and Rupp for picks and prospects, and replace them with rookies, which would save us $3 that we can give to the other kids.


Last edited by Beacon: 11-14-2011 at 04:00 PM.
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Old
11-14-2011, 04:06 PM
  #11
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Stepan, McDonagh, Erixon, Anisimov, Sauer, and Del Zotto will all be looking for raises in the next couple of years. While Parise can fit capwise, is it really a responsible thing to hand out another 7 million dollar contract when all of these guys are going to need raises in the near future?

Edit: Fitzy covered it pretty well. My sentiments are along the lines of his points

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11-14-2011, 04:11 PM
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Stepan has a very good chance of breaking out over the next 2 years. If that happens, he will command a legitimate salary.

McDonagh and Del Zotto are two guys that have high ceilings, and as such high potential RFA salaries as well.

I think its clear now that Anisimov is a 2b/3A center and will be, unless he somehow finds the consistency to score more than 45 points, he'll be affordable, as will Sauer, who is a #5. But they both will still get more than they make now if they stay status quo in development.

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11-14-2011, 04:14 PM
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I want Parise. If it is possible, I want it to happen.

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11-14-2011, 04:23 PM
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Id rather have them sign suter or weber and sign a consistent top 6 scorer perferably much cheaper than parise.

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11-14-2011, 04:48 PM
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Parise on the Rangers


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11-14-2011, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLU Hockey View Post
Stepan has a very good chance of breaking out over the next 2 years. If that happens, he will command a legitimate salary.

McDonagh and Del Zotto are two guys that have high ceilings, and as such high potential RFA salaries as well.

I think its clear now that Anisimov is a 2b/3A center and will be, unless he somehow finds the consistency to score more than 45 points, he'll be affordable, as will Sauer, who is a #5. But they both will still get more than they make now if they stay status quo in development.

Let me put it this way. If a couple of our guys become stars and suddenly we need to clear a few million of cap space, in 2 years we can always trade Dubinsky for a pair of first rounders and/or high-end prospects.

Parise > Dubinsky.
Parise + a couple first rounders >>> Dubinsky

Honestly, if you were the Rangers GM and Lou called you today and offered you a signed Parise straight up Dubinsky, wouldn't you do it? Of course you would.

And here, if we sign Parise, then we will have at least another year of Dubinsky, and possibly we can keep Dubi forever and at worst, we still get picks/prospects for him.

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11-14-2011, 05:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
This argument pops up everywhere, so I decided to create a thread just for it.

These are my arguments.

Do you expect the NHL to just state for the record their official position? When you see a house for sale, is that normally the final price or the starting negotiating price?

If the NHL is saying it's 48-50% right now, it means their starting negotiating position will be 50%. Why not 48%? Because they already signaled that they would be ok more than 48% when saying 48-50%.

NHLPA will counter with a midway point between the current cap and what the NHL wants, which would be about 54%. Then both sides will complain publicly about each other, they will issue threats, and they will scare the fans. In the end, they will come up with a mid-point between the NHL's 50% offer and the NHLPA's 54% offer, which will be right about 52%. This is my educated guess as someone who has to negotiate every day for a living.

Those $175 million would mean 6% additional revenue for the NHL. That's very significant.

And Winnipeg's revenue won't go up just from seat sales, but also from the merchandise sale. Since nobody bought anything Jet-related (jerseys, tshirts, hats, banners, clothes with logos, etc) in 15 years, there is a run on all that stuff.

Plus, the rest of the league is growing a little bit as well. There will be several percentages of growth outside of the NBC and Winnipeg. Certainly the NBA lockout should help. It doesn't mean that the NBA lockout will make the NHL grow by 50%, but it's not unreasonable to expect the NHL to grow 2-3% because of the NBA lockout.

But let's say the NHL sees absolutely no growth this year other than the NBC and Winnipeg.

If the players' revenue share goes down 10% (57%-5.7% to 51.3%), the cap goes down to $57.9 without any revenue increase, but an additional 6% revenue would bring up the cap to $61.3. That's a loss of $3. This is the max that the cap will go down.

Even if there are no rollbacks and the only thing we are allowed to get rid of the Drury and Redden dead-weight, that still allows us to give Parise $7 and have a little of breathing room.

FORWARDS (13)
Zach Parise ($7,000,000) Brad Richards ($6,666,667) Marian Gaborik ($7,500,000)
Brandon Dubinsky ($4,200,000) Artem Anisimov ($1,875,000) Ryan Callahan ($4,275,000)
Chris Kreider ($1,200,000) Derek Stepan ($875,000) Carl Hagelin ($875,000)
Michael Rupp ($1,500,000) Brian Boyle ($1,700,000) Brandon Prust ($1,800,000)
Chad Kolarik ($525,000)

DEFENSEMEN (7)
Marc Staal ($3,975,000) Daniel Girardi ($3,325,000)
Ryan McDonagh ($1,300,000) Mike Sauer ($1,250,000)
Michael Del Zotto ($1,087,500) Tim Erixon ($1,750,000)
Blake Parlett ($537,500)

GOALTENDERS (2)
Henrik Lundqvist ($6,875,000)
Martin Biron ($875,000)


This roster has a cap hit that's under just $61. As stated before, the worst the cap is going down to is ~$61.5. This means we can sign Parise and still give Prust a million dollar raise.

Worst case, if we are stuck with the Drury hit and the cap goes down $3 and there are no salary rollbacks, then just don't re-sign Prust or trade away Boyle or Rupp. So even under the worst circumstance, we still have $7 to give Parise.
Part 1: As to the NHL #:
As to the league, there may be some crazy workaround which is equivalent to a loophole; something that wouldn't be imposed on all teams, but if a team wanted to "loosely" circumvent the cap, the NHL might , or might temporarily look, the other way --- of course that may entail some extraction, as usually nothing is free. I wouldn't expect such gimmicks but don't go into cardiac arrest if we find some.

They may also negotiate something more straightforward with the NHLPA, something we've seen before: partial forced ability to break or at least but out a bad contract. This would have been more useful to us when we first got stuck w/Redden's $4.5 or whatever mil per, but that kind of thing may happen.

And it may be portable. There might be a maximum cap on such buyouts. But you might be able to sell or trade them from one team to another, as long as the league total doesn't go over a certain number.

So for example maybe we send Boyle and a 3rd to a team to effectively get the right to get another $4mil or so of cap.

Not saying this is definitely gonna happen; just sayin it's the stuff you find when you start looking outside the box, if you look hard enough.

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11-14-2011, 05:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenith View Post
Parise would be great, but, even IF the cap stayed the same, this team already has too many major salary commitments; each of Gaborik, Richards, and Lundqvist have a cap hit great than $6.5M. Add Parise in to the mix at approximately $7M, and you're spending ~$25.5M on four players.

Just bring up Kreider and release Wolski. Saves $2M+ on the cap while actually filling with talent.
Part 2: getting Parise.
This^. Anytime you consolidate too much salary in too high a degree with too few players, you are taking a big risk as to injury, as well.

Parise is not an impossible dream. However, he is an impractical option, unless we get enough ELCs -- Hagelin, Kreider and manage to jettison guys like Rupp, etc., If you pay a team enough with a pick or a prospect, you may be able to do that, but you still have injury to consider.

If a Parise were to agree to a 1 year, like the way the Caps goalie took a short deal for less, then it might be a fit worth the risk. But I wouldn't bet on it...

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11-14-2011, 05:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident View Post
I want Parise. If it is possible, I want it to happen.
Me too.

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11-14-2011, 05:54 PM
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I might be in the minority who would actually prefer Shea Weber over Parise

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11-14-2011, 06:23 PM
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OP, I have a suggestion. When RangerBoy posts that stuff, just assume he's right. It's easier and you won't end up looking foolish later.

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11-14-2011, 06:41 PM
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Wolski, Avery off the books is almost 6, Drury's cap hit goes down......so yea they can likely do it.

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11-14-2011, 06:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GAGLine View Post
OP, I have a suggestion. When RangerBoy posts that stuff, just assume he's right. It's easier and you won't end up looking foolish later.
Yeah, I too have been awaiting RBs entrance onto this thread. It will get brutal

FORWARDS (12)
Zach Parise ($7,000,000) Brad Richards ($6,666,667) Marian Gaborik ($7,500,000)
Brandon Dubinsky ($4,200,000) Artem Anisimov ($1,875,000) Ryan Callahan ($4,275,000)
Chris Kreider ($1,200,000) Derek Stepan ($875,000) Carl Hagelin ($875,000)
Michael Rupp ($1,500,000) Brian Boyle ($1,700,000) Brandon Prust ($1,800,000)

DEFENSEMEN (6)
Marc Staal ($3,975,000) Daniel Girardi ($3,325,000)
Ryan McDonagh ($1,300,000) Mike Sauer ($1,250,000)
Michael Del Zotto ($1,087,500) Tim Erixon ($1,750,000)

GOALTENDERS (2)
Henrik Lundqvist ($6,875,000)
Martin Biron ($875,000)

Kreider will get around 1,4 or so with bonuses I would think. Kolarik will not be on the team. Prust at 1,8M sounds a bit high... but maybe. Parlett will not be a 7th defender. Del Zotto is RFA and will get around 1,8M (Anisimov money). Biron is UFA and will get a bit more than now. Drury still has around 1,7M of buyout cost next year. The cap roof can only be speculated about - but I personally think it will be close to this years cap - or go down at most by 5%. I am sure there are other opinions here - but let them be heard. I think Parise is not going to fit onto this team, sorry...

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11-14-2011, 07:08 PM
  #24
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The Cap will come down, at least in terms of percentage of HRR and rollbacks are certainly possible. The real question is not a matter of if, in regards to that, but when.

At this point, I would be very surprised to see an immediate rollback like we saw at the end of the last lockout. Keep in mind that we have very little idea of the reality of what the NHLPA will be asking for in the next CBA. Possible issues beyond straight-up salary are escrow, player safety, and (taking a cue from NFL) retirement benefits. The owners are a little easier to predict, but beyond the general desire for an across the board reduction, they have internal issues to settle as well.

Simply put, no one has any idea how this will turn out for the beginning of the 2012-13 season. Not Larry Brooks. Not RB. Not me. Not you.

As for Parise, I don't feel that this team is a superstar forward away from being contenders. I feel that they're a legit top-line, non-superstar forward away. We don't need Parise or his salary.

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11-14-2011, 07:33 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Sauer View Post
I might be in the minority who would actually prefer Shea Weber over Parise

Weber is not a UFA. We would have to pay through the nose to acquire him. Parise would come for free, except for his salary.

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