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The "Future AHL?" thread, 2011-12

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Old
11-14-2011, 11:28 PM
  #1
HansH
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The "Future AHL?" thread, 2011-12

Y'all know the deal - this is the list of the top 30 best-attended minor pro teams this season, fancifully put into divisions as if the AHL had some kind of master plan to occupy the 30 markets that generate the most revenue. This is the first week that all 73 minor-pro teams have had at least one home game in the season, so it's as good a starting point as any.

There's some surprises -- I certainly didn't have CHL Evansville pegged to be in the top 30, after they failed to sell out the rec rink in which they played last season, but their new arena has, so far, been enough to put them in the mix. Also, this is the first time in a while that I've managed a six-division alignment that isn't any more messed up than the current AHL alignment, if I do say so myself.

This is for entertainment purposes only:

AMERICAN CONFERENCE (15 teams)
Northeastern Division (5)
#7 Providence (AHL) - 6,412.6
#8 St. John's (AHL) - 6,314.9
#14 Portland (AHL) - 5,737.0
#26 Manchester (AHL) - 4,782.6
#27 Connecticut (AHL) - 4,724.0

Atlantic Division (5)
#1 Hershey (AHL) - 9,299.0
#16 Bridgeport (AHL) - 5,461.0
#18 Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL) - 5,402.2
#25 Rochester (AHL) - 4,961.9
#30 Syracuse (AHL) - 4,670.7

Great Lakes Division (5)
#2 Fort Wayne (CHL) - 7,755.3
#4 Toledo (ECHL) - 6,623.2
#9 Grand Rapids (AHL) - 6,277.2
#10 Lake Erie (AHL) - 6,139.9
#15 Chicago (AHL) - 5,710.8


NATIONAL CONFERENCE (15)
Southeastern Division (5)
#6 Evansville (CHL) - 6,468.5
#19 Cincinnati (ECHL) - 5,330.0
#22 Charlotte (AHL) - 5,100.2
#23 Gwinnett (ECHL) - 5,051.4
#28 Florida (ECHL) - 4,719.6

Central Division (5)
#5 San Antonio (AHL) - 6,489.9
#11 Wichita (CHL) - 6,124.5
#12 Houston (AHL) - 5,816.5
#13 Missouri (CHL) - 5,800.0
#17 Texas (AHL) - 5,414.9

Western Division (5)
#3 Stockton (ECHL) - 7,107.3
#20 Colorado (ECHL) - 5,289.0
#21 Ontario (ECHL) - 5,162.4
#24 Bakersfield (ECHL) - 5,004.5
#29 Rapid City (CHL) - 4,713.0

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11-15-2011, 06:02 AM
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Hi,

Thanks for your work. I did something that might be of some interest the other night. I have been to four IceCap home games, and Mile One has been blocked every night. It has been electifying. I was wondering how full the other AHL barns are. So I made an excel sheet dividing the average attendance by the capacity of the rink. Here is what I got.

St. John's 101%
Hershey 89%
Binghamton 85%
Portland 85%
Texas 79%
Rockford 76%
Syracuse 76%
Adirondack 73%
Wilkes-Barre 67%
Bridgeport 65%
Grand Rapids 58%
Providence 54%
Manchester 49%
Springfield 48%
San Antonio 47%
Norfolk 47%
Abbotsford 46%
Rochester 44%
Peoria 43%
Toronto 38% What a Joke
Charlotte 36%
Chicago 34%
Houston 33%
Worcester 31%
Lake Erie 31%
Connecticut 30%
Oklahoma City 28%
Milwaukee 23%
Hamilton 22%
Albany 19%

A lot of this is a function of the rink size, San Antonio draws better than we do but has a barn with twice capacity. To me, I'd rather sit in a rink that is blocked.

On a different note, and this is heresay, our beer sales equate to about the #5 ranking on beer sales in NHL rinks. We can pack it away up here

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11-15-2011, 09:10 AM
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Always wondered something...how many AHL Teams PAD attendance? That is a big thing at the AA level.

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11-15-2011, 09:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Men Rule View Post
Always wondered something...how many AHL Teams PAD attendance? That is a big thing at the AA level.
Having been to numerous arenas that appeared to be virtually empty and see that reported attendance was over 4000, I'd say quite a few.

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11-15-2011, 10:01 AM
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I didn't consider that, that means the real numbers for many teamscould be lower.

No way are the IceCaps numbers are inflated

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11-15-2011, 10:02 AM
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people buy season tickets and don't go to every game, I've been to Senators games that have been 'sold out' but theres at least a few hundred empty seats during the game .. also if the arena has a lounge or bar area, some people just buy the ticket and hang out there but they still count toward the attendance

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11-15-2011, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by eggy2486 View Post
people buy season tickets and don't go to every game, I've been to Senators games that have been 'sold out' but theres at least a few hundred empty seats during the game .. also if the arena has a lounge or bar area, some people just buy the ticket and hang out there but they still count toward the attendance
Why buy a ticket if you intend to go to the lounge/bar to drink and not watch the game?

Oh as a season ticket holder I know that. Already missed 2 games this year.

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11-15-2011, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Green Men Rule View Post
Why buy a ticket if you intend to go to the lounge/bar to drink and not watch the game?
IDK why either, I always go to watch the game, but more casual fans do it especially if they're in their 20s and in a group .. i'm drawing from a small sample size, but still it's going to affect the number of people in the stands

but it has more to do with the season ticket holders, it's probably hard to re-sell tickets for minor league hockey, I almost bought season tickets this year but I didn't want to waste half the tickets because I couldn't go, even though it still would have saved me money even if i went to just 20 games, but as far as the arena is concerned, I would 'attend' every game since the tickets were sold

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11-15-2011, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eggy2486 View Post
people buy season tickets and don't go to every game, I've been to Senators games that have been 'sold out' but theres at least a few hundred empty seats during the game .. also if the arena has a lounge or bar area, some people just buy the ticket and hang out there but they still count toward the attendance
I know some people who do that never use their seat. They like the Lounge Seats better than their season ticket spot. I like the lounge but a lot of yuppies half the time I'm in there.

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11-15-2011, 05:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IceCapsFanNL View Post
Hi,

Thanks for your work. I did something that might be of some interest the other night. I have been to four IceCap home games, and Mile One has been blocked every night. It has been electifying. I was wondering how full the other AHL barns are. So I made an excel sheet dividing the average attendance by the capacity of the rink. Here is what I got.

St. John's 101%
Hershey 89%
Binghamton 85%
Portland 85%
Texas 79%
Rockford 76%
Syracuse 76%
Adirondack 73%
Wilkes-Barre 67%
Bridgeport 65%
Grand Rapids 58%
Providence 54%
Manchester 49%
Springfield 48%
San Antonio 47%
Norfolk 47%
Abbotsford 46%
Rochester 44%
Peoria 43%
Toronto 38% What a Joke
Charlotte 36%
Chicago 34%
Houston 33%
Worcester 31%
Lake Erie 31%
Connecticut 30%
Oklahoma City 28%
Milwaukee 23%
Hamilton 22%
Albany 19%

A lot of this is a function of the rink size, San Antonio draws better than we do but has a barn with twice capacity. To me, I'd rather sit in a rink that is blocked.

On a different note, and this is heresay, our beer sales equate to about the #5 ranking on beer sales in NHL rinks. We can pack it away up here
You have Rochester's capacity incorrect. I'm assuming you're using the 11,200 figure, which isn't accurate. Seats were removed and capacity is now at 10,500 which would put them at 47%.

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11-15-2011, 06:43 PM
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Thanks, I used Wikipedia, I'll modify the number, and I am planning to update the sheet every couple of weeks or so.

and

Go Amerks!!

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11-15-2011, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by IceCapsFanNL View Post
Thanks, I used Wikipedia, I'll modify the number, and I am planning to update the sheet every couple of weeks or so.

and

Go Amerks!!
No problem. Glad to see the AHL back in the Maritimes. I grew up and started following the AHL when they were in St. John's, Saint John, Halifax, Cape Breton etc. Always enjoyed those teams.

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11-16-2011, 09:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IceCapsFanNL View Post
Hi,

Thanks for your work. I did something that might be of some interest the other night. I have been to four IceCap home games, and Mile One has been blocked every night. It has been electifying. I was wondering how full the other AHL barns are. So I made an excel sheet dividing the average attendance by the capacity of the rink. Here is what I got.

St. John's 101%
Hershey 89%
Binghamton 85%
Portland 85%
Texas 79%
Rockford 76%
Syracuse 76%
Adirondack 73%
Wilkes-Barre 67%
Bridgeport 65%
Grand Rapids 58%
Providence 54%
Manchester 49%
Springfield 48%
San Antonio 47%
Norfolk 47%
Abbotsford 46%
Rochester 44%
Peoria 43%
Toronto 38% What a Joke
Charlotte 36%
Chicago 34%
Houston 33%
Worcester 31%
Lake Erie 31%
Connecticut 30%
Oklahoma City 28%
Milwaukee 23%
Hamilton 22%
Albany 19%

A lot of this is a function of the rink size, San Antonio draws better than we do but has a barn with twice capacity. To me, I'd rather sit in a rink that is blocked.

On a different note, and this is heresay, our beer sales equate to about the #5 ranking on beer sales in NHL rinks. We can pack it away up here
The last BC hockey capacity that I saw was 17,875. Unfortunately, the Admirals usually use the lower half of the BC and the luxury suites only. So the capacity is more like 8,000 for 90% of their home games or about 52% so far.

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11-17-2011, 07:08 AM
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I saw that with the Ads and also the San Antonio rink where they use curtains. I didn't know how to handle it. If its used all the time it makes sense to use the lower number. I'll change it for the Ads, and for San Antonio if I find out they use it.

Does anyone know.

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11-17-2011, 02:40 PM
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Ads will have a few crowds this year when they need to use the upper half.

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11-17-2011, 11:57 PM
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Percent of capacity of the arena is not a good factor to use. You should just go by the raw numbers.

So what if the Wolves or Ads draw only 25% capacity,m that is still over 4,000 fans per game. Same with Houston, San Antonio, etc.

Face it,team would rather have 33% of 17,000 than 80% of 6000

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11-18-2011, 10:28 AM
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TommyHawk,

I think it depends on what you are trying to measure.

I have a history of attending St John's Maple Leafs games, St. John's Fog Devils and St. John's Ice Caps games.

I found that the empty seats that used to be found in Mile One when the Fog Devils played really lessened my enjoyment of the game, to the point where I pretty quickly stopped going. In an effort to quantify that feeling I started these calculations.

Everyone is different, but to me I rather have our 6300 in a rink that holds 6300, than 8,000 in a rink that holds 12,000, let alone 16,000. YMMV.

(It was also a chance to get a dig in on the Marlies)

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11-18-2011, 10:30 AM
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Face it,team would rather have 33% of 17,000 than 80% of 6000
The team might, If was a fan in either situation, I'll sit in the stadium with 4800 in it

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01-05-2012, 09:29 AM
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New calendar year, new update (numbers as of 1/2/12). AHL Connecticut and CHL Evansville are no longer in the top 30, having been replaced by AHL Toronto (on the strength of a game in the ACC) and AHL Peoria. There's really no great way to align this particular list of 30 that I can find, so I'm just kind of lazily haphazardly putting them together. Yes, there are issues with the Southeast, primarily.

Again, this is for entertainment purposes only.

EASTERN CONFERENCE (15 teams)
Northeastern Division (5)
#8 St. John's (AHL) - 6,310.9
#9 Providence (AHL) - 6,210.2
#13 Portland (AHL) - 5,664.0
#20 Manchester (AHL) - 5,300.4
#23 Bridgeport (AHL) - 4,992.5

Atlantic Division (5)
#1 Hershey (AHL) - 9,332.1
#15 Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL) - 5,590.9
#19 Rochester (AHL) - 5,323.3
#25 Syracuse (AHL) - 4,955.9
#26 Toronto (AHL) - 4,843.5

Southeastern Division (5)
#3 Lake Erie (AHL) - 6,295.8
#10 Charlotte (AHL) - 5,982.1
#24 Gwinnett (ECHL) - 4,992.1
#29 Florida (ECHL) - 4,648.0
#30 Cincinnati (ECHL) - 4,365.1

WESTERN CONFERENCE (15)
Great Lakes Division (5)
#2 Fort Wayne (CHL) - 7,726.6
#4 Grand Rapids (AHL) - 6,842.5
#7 Chicago (AHL) - 6,325.3
#11 Toledo (ECHL) - 5,789.1
#27 Peoria (AHL) - 4,828.6

Southern Division (5)
#5 Houston (AHL) - 6,688.5
#6 San Antonio (AHL) - 6,607.8
#14 Wichita (CHL) - 5,637.4
#16 Texas (AHL) - 5,578.9
#18 Missouri (CHL) - 5,423.8

Western Division (5)
#12 Stockton (ECHL) - 5,766.3
#17 Ontario (ECHL) - 5,507.4
#21 Colorado (ECHL) - 5,289.0
#22 Bakersfield (ECHL) - 5,054.1
#28 Rapid City (CHL) - 4,680.5

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01-05-2012, 09:49 AM
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Not for nothing, but is there a way to remove the "other site" games from your calculations. The Phantoms attendance will "artificially" skyrocket given that the game at Citizens Bank Park will have over 45000 in attendance. The one game will increase their average attendance from their current figure of 3415 (27th in the league) to over 5700 (10th in the league).

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01-05-2012, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com View Post
Not for nothing, but is there a way to remove the "other site" games from your calculations. The Phantoms attendance will "artificially" skyrocket given that the game at Citizens Bank Park will have over 45000 in attendance. The one game will increase their average attendance from their current figure of 3415 (27th in the league) to over 5700 (10th in the league).
Not an easy way -- especially because if you start doing that, you also have to start removing all the games that AHL teams play at their parent NHL team's arena (like the Bulldogs games in Montreal, the Marlies games at ACC, etc) for consistency, and honestly I just can't be bothered to go THAT far into the data and obsess about the home arenas. If it's any consolation, over the season, that one game would add just over 1,000 fans to their per-game average, and right now that MIGHT edge them into the top 30 at the end of the year... _maybe_.

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01-05-2012, 10:16 AM
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Not an easy way -- especially because if you start doing that, you also have to start removing all the games that AHL teams play at their parent NHL team's arena (like the Bulldogs games in Montreal, the Marlies games at ACC, etc) for consistency, and honestly I just can't be bothered to go THAT far into the data and obsess about the home arenas. If it's any consolation, over the season, that one game would add just over 1,000 fans to their per-game average, and right now that MIGHT edge them into the top 30 at the end of the year... _maybe_.
Understood, but it's one thing to play a game where the team might draw 10-15K which may be double than their per game average. It's another for one game to draw over 12 times their per game average. An extra 1000 fans would take the Phantoms from 27th to 19th place and would put them in your top 30 where they clearly do not belong.

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01-05-2012, 01:53 PM
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The Phantoms will have reported that number of fans for the year, the formula for average is total number of reported fans divided by 38. The whole premise is interesting, but the numbers are so inflated in many arenas that it is extremely flawed to begin with. It's kind of like running a race and having all the runners just tell the official their time at the end.

I do find tracking the reported attendances interesting, don't get me wrong.

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01-05-2012, 06:30 PM
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Keep up the good work, Hans! I look forward to April, when Milwaukee will be in the mix.

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01-05-2012, 07:05 PM
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Keep up the good work, Hans! I look forward to April, when Milwaukee will be in the mix.
They're one fan on average away from being #30 right now.

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