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"S.O.S" · · · — — — · · · catastrophic season?

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Old
11-29-2011, 04:18 PM
  #1
Habaneros
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"S.O.S" · · · — — — · · · catastrophic season?

english translation

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in french
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11-29-2011, 04:32 PM
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MathMan
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I saw that. I thought it was awful. Mr. Cantin is reading strictly from the record, and not judging the team based on its actual level of play, which is far more predictive of future results, an unfortunately all-too-common mistake of mainstream sports journalists.

I thought it was otherwise a typical superficial, reactionary commentary from the mainstream media. It's very short on facts, as this type of piece usually is, and even the subjective content amounts to little more than .

You'd think they'd have enough experience to notice patterns and not knee-jerk continually based on such a narrow view, but they rarely do. It's unfortunate, because Mr. Cantin didn't even have to go far for a more reasoned and fact-driven evaluation of the Habs; he could simply have asked his colleague Mr. Godin, who had recently authored a much stronger piece describing several factors underlying the start of the Habs' season.

Of course, actual analysis is not nearly as popular with Habs fandom as aimless ranting about how terrible the team is.

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11-29-2011, 04:38 PM
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FiveForDrawingBlood
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Originally Posted by Habaneros View Post
The sky is always falling in Montreal. Always been that way. Lose a couple in a row and 75% of Hab fans wants the front office fired and top 3-4 players traded off for first round draft picks

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11-29-2011, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I saw that. I thought it was awful. Mr. Cantin is reading strictly from the record, and not judging the team based on its actual level of play, which is far more predictive of future results, an unfortunately all-too-common mistake of mainstream sports journalists.

I thought it was otherwise a typical superficial, reactionary commentary from the mainstream media. It's very short on facts, as this type of piece usually is, and even the subjective content amounts to little more than .

You'd think they'd have enough experience to notice patterns and not knee-jerk continually based on such a narrow view, but they rarely do. It's unfortunate, because Mr. Cantin didn't even have to go far for a more reasoned and fact-driven evaluation of the Habs; he could simply have asked his colleague Mr. Godin, who had recently authored a much stronger piece describing several factors underlying the start of the Habs' season.

Of course, actual analysis is not nearly as popular with Habs fandom as aimless ranting about how terrible the team is.

The thing about judging a team because it's been playing better than it's record, or has a great percentage over x period of time is that the season is cumulative and points lost are more difficult to recover with each passing game. Leafs fans for years have, correctly, pointed out that their team played playoff quality hockey for large parts of the season. I don't want to be that kind of fan. The fact is if you need to be ten games over .500, give or take, to make the playoffs (due to this crazy system where you could lose all 80 games in overtime and still be called a .500 team). Ten games up over 82 games is one thing, ten games over 60 is hugely harder. Ten games over .500 over 40 games is nigh on impossible, and even if you pull it off it likely still isn't enough because of the teams ahead of you. Look at NJ last season.

The habs season is in serious trouble, and not entirely due to injury IMO. The org has weak organizational depth in a number of positions, and a total void in some key ones.

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11-29-2011, 04:45 PM
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That we get angry when our team sucks is what separates us from Leafs fans, who just take it without saying a word. There's a reason their team has not won since 1967.

The Habs should be held to a higher standard than the Panthers. That our team is at .500 this far into the season is catastrophic.

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11-29-2011, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I saw that. I thought it was awful. Mr. Cantin is reading strictly from the record, and not judging the team based on its actual level of play, which is far more predictive of future results, an unfortunately all-too-common mistake of mainstream sports journalists.

I thought it was otherwise a typical superficial, reactionary commentary from the mainstream media. It's very short on facts, as this type of piece usually is, and even the subjective content amounts to little more than .

You'd think they'd have enough experience to notice patterns and not knee-jerk continually based on such a narrow view, but they rarely do. It's unfortunate, because Mr. Cantin didn't even have to go far for a more reasoned and fact-driven evaluation of the Habs; he could simply have asked his colleague Mr. Godin, who had recently authored a much stronger piece describing several factors underlying the start of the Habs' season.

Of course, actual analysis is not nearly as popular with Habs fandom as aimless ranting about how terrible the team is.

Cantin could be right or wrong ,just makes you wonder tho.With ratings down 14 percent , seats i do see empty now as i watch on the Hdtv, Bell Centre not as "alive" anymore.Could the Bell Centre not being as "alive" be due too the raising ticket prices over last few years, and putting in more "higher end suit fans" like in TO??Or is it the game itself?


After reading that article , right or wrongly,this thought popped into my head. Is calling up a local highly touted french kid ,a signal of"corporate" panic? Yes i know he's only going to be on the road out west, but what if it so he can get some sea legs before hits Bell Centre ice?Just something that popped into my head after reading that article .

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11-29-2011, 04:50 PM
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The thing about judging a team because it's been playing better than it's record, or has a great percentage over x period of time is that the season is cumulative and points lost are more difficult to recover with each passing game.
While that's mathematically true, the important notion is predictibility. The Habs' level of play to this point of the season largely suggests a 100, even 110-point team -- and that was sans Markov and indeed as the most injury-riddled club in the league. They have 24 points in 24 games so far. Go 100 point pace the rest of the way, you're already looking at a 95-point total -- and that's really a fairly conservative estimate given how the Habs have played in very difficult circumstances (multiple back-to-backs, injuries).

Or look at it this way: the Habs have lost 4 games they really deserved to win (at least). How many games have they won they really deserved to lose? One, if that? An extra 3 wins, this early in the season, would have them in the second seed. Even just getting a single OT point for these 4 games (the thought exercise suggested by Godin), or winning just half of them, would see them ensconced in the middle of the playoff picture.

Or here's yet another way to view it: there are 8 teams in the East that have scored more goals than they allowed. 7 of them are in playoff positions. I'll let you guess who #8 is.

No, you can't get those "lost" points back -- but if the team continues playing at the same level, it's going to trend up and not down.

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Leafs fans for years have, correctly, pointed out that their team played playoff quality hockey for large parts of the season.
They really weren't right, though. They say that because their record flattered them over a short period. As it does right now, really. These are things that happen over short stretches; good teams don't win and bad teams do. Minnesota is probably exhibit A, a terrible puck possession team that's sitting atop the Western standings -- they strike me as this year's version of last year's Dallas. (Mind you, this year's version of last year's Dallas could easily be Dallas. )

Quote:
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The habs season is in serious trouble, and not entirely due to injury IMO. The org has weak organizational depth in a number of positions, and a total void in some key ones.
I strongly disagree with this assessment.

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11-29-2011, 04:54 PM
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My question is, what would happen in Manchester, UK if the the Red Devils presented this type of play ?

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11-29-2011, 04:54 PM
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My question is, what would happen in Manchester, UK if the the Red Devils presented this type of play ?
riots

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11-29-2011, 04:55 PM
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Cantin could be right or wrong ,just makes you wonder tho.With ratings down 14 percent , seats i do see empty now as i watch on the Hdtv, Bell Centre not as "alive" anymore.Could the Bell Centre not being as "alive" be due too the raising ticket prices over last few years, and putting in more "higher end suit fans" like in TO??Or is it the game itself?
I don't particularly care. Marketing is the job of the business arm of the team, not the hockey arm.

It's possible that fans believe this year's team is weak, which would be IMO an incorrect assessment (it's probably stronger than any version of the club in the last 15 years, and certainly miles stronger than the 2009-2010 club). But since that assessment is repeated by mainstream sports media, it would not surprise me. Again, though, that is a problem for the marketing arm of the organization.

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After reading that article , right or wrongly,this thought popped into my head. Is calling up a local highly touted french kid ,a signal of"corporate" panic?
I think, personally, that it's a reaction to a forward being suspended 3 games combined with a lack of options in Hamilton due to a massive rash of injuries. But I'm weird that way.

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11-29-2011, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
The sky is always falling in Montreal. Always been that way. Lose a couple in a row and 75% of Hab fans wants the front office fired and top 3-4 players traded off for first round draft picks
There's a significant portion of fans that want that even when the team does well. They just shut up about it when the team wins, but I suspect some secretly hope for the team to crash.

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11-29-2011, 04:58 PM
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The Habs are six points off the second seed...that is not insurmountable at all.

As for bad luck, look at Boston. They had some bad luck early, then won ten in a row. Did they deserve to win all of them? No...but they had some bad luck early and it evened out in that win streak.

The Habs could potentially stay unlucky - injuries are always the key factor - or they could even out and be a playoff team, probably with some room to spare. I'm betting on the latter.

It's not even December guys, it's way too early to do the usual Montreal freakout and call for everybody to be traded and fired.

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11-29-2011, 05:02 PM
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I don't particularly care. Marketing is the job of the business arm of the team, not the hockey arm.

It's possible that fans believe this year's team is weak, which would be IMO an incorrect assessment (it's probably stronger than any version of the club in the last 15 years, and certainly miles stronger than the 2009-2010 club). But since that assessment is repeated by mainstream sports media, it would not surprise me. Again, though, that is a problem for the marketing arm of the organization.



I think, personally, that it's a reaction to a forward being suspended 3 games combined with a lack of options in Hamilton due to a massive rash of injuries. But I'm weird that way.

Why not just bump Darche or Palushaj up for 3 games?
I mean Darche has played top lines during playoffs both years, so this should be easy.
Palushaj has got near 100 ahl points,and really hasn't got a legit shot .

I want to believe that the real reason is due to injury , but again after reading that article , it really seems to make sense.Calling up Avstin for example , isn't the same as Leblanc .....is it?One gets you a loud pop the other one just a little fizz.

Anyway Mathman, i really hope your assessment is correct.


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11-29-2011, 05:06 PM
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My question is, what would happen in Manchester, UK if the the Red Devils presented this type of play ?
All you have to do is go back to the 80s and find out.

They also play in a league without a salary cap, draft picks, etc. to try and equalize the league, and year after year spend more money than all but 2 or 3 other teams in the league - the same 2 or 3 other teams in the league that are the only ones that ever finish ahead of them.

The idea to not freak out because of the record isn't settling for mediocrity. It's that there's enough good I see that blowing everything up right now has more probability to do harm than good. The league is far too close right now for this kind of hysterics.

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11-29-2011, 05:12 PM
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I don't think we need to blow up the core for a mixture of somewhat-lesser players and/or picks.

Plus there were those losses where the team didn't suck.

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11-29-2011, 05:22 PM
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I thought, as long as we can hang around .500 until we get healthy, ala Markov back, then we should be OK. And I think we will be...

If Chara goes down, how well would the B's do? They would be challenged to play .500 and the same could be of any team without their best player, or in our case, skater ( Price is our best player )

The key to this season will be Markov's health, and Price's play...the supporting cast has issues, but there is alot to be positive about like Max, Cole, and Subban will come around...

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11-29-2011, 05:27 PM
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While that's mathematically true, the important notion is predictibility. The Habs' level of play to this point of the season largely suggests a 100, even 110-point team -- and that was sans Markov and indeed as the most injury-riddled club in the league. They have 24 points in 24 games so far. Go 100 point pace the rest of the way, you're already looking at a 95-point total -- and that's really a fairly conservative estimate given how the Habs have played in very difficult circumstances (multiple back-to-backs, injuries).

Or look at it this way: the Habs have lost 4 games they really deserved to win (at least). How many games have they won they really deserved to lose? One, if that? An extra 3 wins, this early in the season, would have them in the second seed. Even just getting a single OT point for these 4 games (the thought exercise suggested by Godin), or winning just half of them, would see them ensconced in the middle of the playoff picture.

Or here's yet another way to view it: there are 8 teams in the East that have scored more goals than they allowed. 7 of them are in playoff positions. I'll let you guess who #8 is.

No, you can't get those "lost" points back -- but if the team continues playing at the same level, it's going to trend up and not down.
For a self-described Math Man, this seems like wishful thinking unsupported by Math.
Let's look at the Leafs. They have been a significant minus team. They were 9-4 and in the double digits minus as a team. Now one could predict that they would lose more in the future, or one could predict that they, as a winning team, would improve their play in the future (and they have improved their goal differential markedly since then, while also racking up more wins.) The argument that Leafs have gotten free points and therefore the Habs are more likely to make the playoffs is not exactly based in math.

Similarly, the habs, who have arguably been playing better than their results show, could continue to play well and get more points (maybe even enough) or could continue to have a poor season, results wise. Just as likely, if not more so, is that they could well get frustrated or desperate or turn on each other or the coach.

On what basis is "predictability" some kind of fundamental issue to anyone but sports bettors? And on what basis does a lousy record "predict" a better one in future. Their play in the last five games hasn't been good enough to support your optimism, IMO, but I'm happy for you that you have it. Wish I shared it myself.

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11-29-2011, 05:31 PM
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There were more games where we lost without us sucking than games where we sucked.

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11-29-2011, 05:36 PM
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There were more games where we lost without us sucking than games where we sucked.
which makes it bad.Because we know we're goona slump from here to April some time, it always happens, which we can't afford this time .

Last year we had 15 wins in first 24 ,fought tooth and nail to make it .
Year before we had 12 wins in first 24 , and just made it the by skin of our teeth, by 1 point .
This year we got 10 wins in 24 games.

We are now missing our top scorer on a team that already has trouble doin that alot of nights, and next 10 of 15 on the road...Maybe the road will be kind?Maybe it won't.
The season really hangs on a thread in the next few weeks.

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11-29-2011, 06:09 PM
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The worse part, is when he is dissing about the new Q team in Sherbrooke. Dude...Phoenix or Phιnix..god.

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11-29-2011, 06:14 PM
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As for bad luck, look at Boston. They had some bad luck early, then won ten in a row. Did they deserve to win all of them? No...but they had some bad luck early and it evened out in that win streak..
Boston are cup contenders, with an impressive lineup of skill and toughness. Comparing their season to Montreals, is futile.

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11-29-2011, 06:22 PM
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@bullsmith: while it is certainly possible that a bad team with a good record might continue winning or a good team with a bad record might continue losing, there is a reason the sports bettors don't bet on that much; it's far less likely than the alternative.

And I could whip out the math showing that the Habs are strong those indicators that show future success (again, sans Markov and playing at the salary floor more often than not) but that's generally not too well received around here. You may wish to look up Pythagorean expectation though -- keeping in mind that Montreal's goal differential probably underestimates them.

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11-29-2011, 07:22 PM
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Now I know who my father gets his habs news from.

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11-29-2011, 07:42 PM
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Cantin would beat his kid if he were a goalie and had a bad game.

And calling up Leblanc is a "corporate" move? Really? develloping a 1st round pick is obviously a good corporate move. Give him a cup of coffee with the big club, see where his game is, and send him back after the 3 games with an idea of what needs to be improved on.... I am simply shocked that PG would want to develop one of his top assets.

Cantin is a moron

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11-29-2011, 07:54 PM
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well... this is comforting to read

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