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Future Considerations December Top 30 W/ Fallout Article.

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Old
12-01-2011, 01:35 PM
  #1
DanStewartFC
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Future Considerations December Top 30 W/ Fallout Article.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Considerations
Russian race in December draft ranking

Nail Yakupov is still No. 1, but he can hear the footsteps of countryman Mikhail Grigorenko.

Grigorenko jumped into third position in Future Considerations’ December ranking for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, trailing both Yakupov and Everett Silvertips defenseman Ryan Murray. All three are expected to be major players in the World Junior Championship, underway in Alberta later this month, and their performances could dictate who reigns in January.

“It is time to give Mikhail Grigorenko his due as a legit riser with his play this year in the QMJHL,” scouting director Dan Stewart said.” While he has had a bit of a consistency issues in the past with his Russian team CSKA, his play in Quebec under coach Patrick Roy has been phenomenal.”

1). RW Nail Yakupov, Sarnia, OHL, 5-10, 170
2). D Ryan Murray, Everett, WHL, 6-1, 195
3). C Mikhail Grigorenko, Quebec, QMJHL, 6-2, 190
4). D Matt Dumba, Red Deer, WHL, 6-0, 175
5). C Alex Galchenyuk, Sarnia, OHL, 6-1, 185
6). LW Filip Forsberg, Leksand Jr., Swe Jr., 6-1, 175
7). D Morgan Rielly, Moose Jaw, WHL, 6-0, 195
8). D Cody Ceci, Ottawa, OHL, 6-3, 210
9). C Zemgus Girgensons, Dubuque, USHL, 6-2, 185
10). D Jacob Trouba, USNTDP U18, USHL, 6-2, 185

Grigorenko isn’t the only prospect trending upwards...
Rest of December Rankings article

Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Consideration
Stewart: December’s draft ranking fallout

It is time to give Mikhail Grigorenko his due as a legit riser with his play this year in the QMJHL. While he has had a bit of a consistency issue in the past with his Russian team CSKA, his play in Quebec under coach Patrick Roy has been phenomenal.

Grigorenko, while consistently dominant in the offensive zone, still has some distance to go before catching top prospect Nail Yakupov. The difference is Yakupov’s commitment to playing a complete game in all zones, displaying his drive to constantly improve his game, his ability to play through physical blanketing teams thorough at him and not just taking what is given but instead creating his own space and chances.

Zemgus Girgensons, meanwhile, has really taken a step forward this year in terms of consistency...
Rest of this article

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12-01-2011, 01:45 PM
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Gaunce too low, Ebert too high...other then that, I like the list.

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12-01-2011, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by chaosrevolver View Post
Gaunce too low, Ebert too high
What makes that so in your mind?

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12-01-2011, 06:45 PM
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What makes that so in your mind?
I tend to agree with Ebert. He has shown very little this year worthy of making him a high draft pick. He has 2/3 of the year left, he had better use it wisely.

Gaunce I'm split on. I see the great box score numbers but I've seen him a few times in Ottawa and he has been invisible, and that is not easy to do with that size. I wonder about his skating. Good for the OHL, but below average for NHL. I just do not see him as a 1st or 2nd liner at this point, and thats not really worthy of a to 15 pick. I've only seem him once this year though, so that is a big caveat.

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12-01-2011, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Cup View Post
What makes that so in your mind?
Ebert hasn't played like a top 60 pick this year and it only seems like he's getting worse. I don't know why they can keep Ebert that high because of his potential yet drop Marcantuoni off, Ebert doesn't even have injuries as an excuse, he's just been extremely disappointing and the fear that Ellis carried him last year is really coming true.

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12-01-2011, 07:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cup View Post
What makes that so in your mind?
Ebert is playing brutal right now..certainly not playing like a first rounder. While I think he will go between 20-30..that's as early as he goes unless he steps it up.

As for Gaunce, he is starting to find his offense big time. On top of that, he is big, has continuously improved his skating, has an already NHL ready shot and is very responsible in his own end. He is sorta what every team would want, no? I expect him to go around 10-15..just because the entire package is too enticing.

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12-01-2011, 08:15 PM
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Is Matheson no longer considered first round talent?

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12-01-2011, 08:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alberta tough View Post
Is Matheson no longer considered first round talent?
He was third on our unpublished 'honorable mentions' list. Definitely still a candidate.

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12-01-2011, 09:05 PM
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Got to see Grigorenko tonight. My ear is still recovering after hearing one of his shots hit the glass near my head.

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12-02-2011, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew
Goodrankings overall, but i’m a little disappointed you guys are falling intosocial perception. You guys defended your ranking of Ebert left and right a fewtimes over the last month.. then you drop him 10 spots, becasue others did. Youguys made your statement on Girgensons dropping him 8 spots, and elaboratingony our choice. Now because the social perception is he’s doing good in a lowerlevel league like the USHL and you move him up 11 spots from last month. Itwouldn’t matter if I haven’t seen on the site and the boards people encouragingyou to move them up/down when you defend your ranking.. then going against itby changing it.

However i’m glad you guys have kept Yakupov at #1, and kept Galchenyuk and Murray inyour top 5 keeping changes minimal up there. Hate when rankings get thrownaround every month, cause players don’t change that much talent wise. See youon the boards!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Stewart in reply to Andrew
Andrew thanks for thecomments as I enjoy hearing from other hockey and draft enthusiasts.

I am sorry that you think FC is bending to what othersbelieve but I want to assure you that any variation in rankings has nothing todo with trends or popular opinions but instead based on viewings by our scouts.

An example of this, with regards to Ebert dropping, can beseen with the below exerts from scouting reports on the Windsordefenseman this year.

Beginning of October – “Didn’t do much in the first periodbut played a much greater role in the second and third. Shows good overallpositioning and utilized his point shot well. Played well defensively and wasjust bad luck on a goal against in the second as he was in position but hisdefense partner made a costly error. Trying to force offensive plays, shotsfrom the point, cross seem passes that are not always there and may be pushingtoo hard in most areas. Still a top five talent”

Mid-October – “Ebert is the top OHL defenceman that I haveseen this season. He is not flashy, but gets the job done. Projects out as anintelligent two-way defenceman who can play either offensive or defensiveroles. Top 10 draft pick for the NHL Draft”

End of October – “Best game that I have seen Ebert play in awhile. He was more aggressive with the puck and was willing to skate it out oftrouble. May not be a top 5 prospect for the draft anymore, but stillshould be a solid top 10-15 selection.”

Mid-November – “Ebert played to expectations. He hasstaggered a bit with his overall development/progression, but is nowhere nearas bad a prospect as some have him. Should be a solid 1st round draft pick,probably in the 10-18 range.”

So you can see for these reports that his development trajectory has been falling although not nearly as much as some have suggested.

The same type of thing but in opposite fashion can be seenin our reports on Zemgus Girgensons.

From RDO in August – “Girgensons was one of the moredangerous forwards with the puck over the two-day camp. Have some questionsabout his physical play, his ability to play thought that physical play as wellas his willingness to fight down low and along the boards.”

Beginning of October – “Inconsistencyis the name of the game. Shows bursts of fire, speed and strength, then coastsand is not to be seen for extended periods of time. Seems to give 100% in theoffensive end and much less in the neutral zone and in the defensive zone (alot of coasting and circling waiting for the rush to go the other way insteadof applying back pressure).”

End of October – “Really played amore consistent game in all three zones than in my first viewing of Girgensonsthis season.”

When we complete our monthly rankings they is not based orgiven much consideration on how each prospect was ranked the previous month. Itis based on the body of work and projected outcome after development that eachprospect shows.

You are right in saying that talent does not changemuch but there are a lot of other intangibles that do tend to fluctuate overthe season that also play a key role in a prospects perception.


These are the kind of comments and banter we like to see our rankings generate.

If you have any questions post them and we will be glad to answer.


Last edited by DanStewartFC: 12-02-2011 at 11:51 AM.
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12-02-2011, 01:45 PM
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I don't understand why Grigorenko is at #3... Can you explain why he's below Yakupov and Ebert?

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12-02-2011, 02:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prophet of Glennie View Post
Ebert hasn't played like a top 60 pick this year and it only seems like he's getting worse. I don't know why they can keep Ebert that high because of his potential yet drop Marcantuoni off, Ebert doesn't even have injuries as an excuse, he's just been extremely disappointing and the fear that Ellis carried him last year is really coming true.
Even though Ebert hasn't played great this season his potential is still top 15 worthy. The same case can be made with Murray. He too hasn't played like he did last year plus he's injured, though still is a top 3 pick.

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12-02-2011, 02:06 PM
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He was third on our unpublished 'honorable mentions' list. Definitely still a candidate.
I want to see this list go from unpublished to published.

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12-02-2011, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Even though Ebert hasn't played great this season his potential is still top 15 worthy. The same case can be made with Murray. He too hasn't played like he did last year plus he's injured, though still is a top 3 pick.
Potential is potential but eventually you need to start getting results this season. I'll keep going back to the Marcantuoni example, people thought he had top 10 possibly top 5 potential and yet he's being dropped for having about as disappointing a season as Ebert.

Murray seems to still be playing at least good though, and his injury probably can be blamed for everything else. Ebert on the other hand; who looked extremely strong and confident on the PP last year, has looked terrible and lost on it, and that's just one thing among many.

I don't know, he has a tonne of potential, but we need results, I can't see any team taking him in the first round at all unless he starts showing a glimpse of the potential.

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12-02-2011, 02:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prophet of Glennie View Post
Potential is potential but eventually you need to start getting results this season. I'll keep going back to the Marcantuoni example, people thought he had top 10 possibly top 5 potential and yet he's being dropped for having about as disappointing a season as Ebert.

Murray seems to still be playing at least good though, and his injury probably can be blamed for everything else. Ebert on the other hand; who looked extremely strong and confident on the PP last year, has looked terrible and lost on it, and that's just one thing among many.

I don't know, he has a tonne of potential, but we need results, I can't see any team taking him in the first round at all unless he starts showing a glimpse of the potential.
He did show potential.....last year. You have to think some team (or perhaps several) see the value and feel that in the right situation it will come together for Ebert.

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12-02-2011, 02:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Granlund2Pulkkinen View Post
I don't understand why Grigorenko is at #3... Can you explain why he's below Yakupov and Ebert?
This was addressed, with regards to Grigorenko vs. Yakupov, in the fallout article linked in the OP. In regards to Murray, He is still a better prospect in our minds as his game is very well rounded in comparison to Mikhail.

- Grigorenko is truly a high end playmaking/goal scoring weapon who uses his reach well.

- Murray contributes offensively with heady passes and quick transitions as well as nice puck composure.

- Grigorenko has given a good effort but looks to have much to learn about defensive positioning or play in his own zone.

- Murray is one of this drafts top defensive d-men, utilizing great defensive zone positioning and reads as well as a quick stick.

- Both have NHL size and skating ability, although Murray has the better stride between the two.

- Grigorenko has a slightly higher NHL ceiling but also a lower bottom end.

With those points taken into consideration, FC has Murray at #2 and Grigorenko at #3 in our rankings this month.

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12-02-2011, 06:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cup View Post
Originally Posted by Dan Stewart in reply to Andrew
Andrew thanks for thecomments as I enjoy hearing from other hockey and draft enthusiasts.

I am sorry that you think FC is bending to what othersbelieve but I want to assure you that any variation in rankings has nothing todo with trends or popular opinions but instead based on viewings by our scouts.

An example of this, with regards to Ebert dropping, can beseen with the below exerts from scouting reports on the Windsordefenseman this year.

Beginning of October – “Didn’t do much in the first periodbut played a much greater role in the second and third. Shows good overallpositioning and utilized his point shot well. Played well defensively and wasjust bad luck on a goal against in the second as he was in position but hisdefense partner made a costly error. Trying to force offensive plays, shotsfrom the point, cross seem passes that are not always there and may be pushingtoo hard in most areas. Still a top five talent”

Mid-October – “Ebert is the top OHL defenceman that I haveseen this season. He is not flashy, but gets the job done. Projects out as anintelligent two-way defenceman who can play either offensive or defensiveroles. Top 10 draft pick for the NHL Draft”

End of October – “Best game that I have seen Ebert play in awhile. He was more aggressive with the puck and was willing to skate it out oftrouble. May not be a top 5 prospect for the draft anymore, but stillshould be a solid top 10-15 selection.”

Mid-November – “Ebert played to expectations. He hasstaggered a bit with his overall development/progression, but is nowhere nearas bad a prospect as some have him. Should be a solid 1st round draft pick,probably in the 10-18 range.”

So you can see for these reports that his development trajectory has been falling although not nearly as much as some have suggested.

A simple question is that if he had not come into the season ranked so high, would he be anywhere near that ranking now? I can see why you are dropping him, but obviously some people think he should be dropping faster. I think if he came into the year as a projected second round pick, he''d still be there, and is where he is for no other reason than a hot start to last year. The season is close to half over, how long do scouts wait? His last 68 games (full season count) he has 26 points including only 3 goals. He just does not do others things at a highly elite level to justify a first rounder IMHO. Ceci for example is over 50 with 15 goals, and he is still barely considered top 5 D man material but some.

I hope he can pull it together, and help Windsor and himself at the same time.

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12-03-2011, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ottawah View Post
A simple question is that if he had not come into the season ranked so high, would he be anywhere near that ranking now? I can see why you are dropping him, but obviously some people think he should be dropping faster. I think if he came into the year as a projected second round pick, he''d still be there, and is where he is for no other reason than a hot start to last year. The season is close to half over, how long do scouts wait? His last 68 games (full season count) he has 26 points including only 3 goals. He just does not do others things at a highly elite level to justify a first rounder IMHO. Ceci for example is over 50 with 15 goals, and he is still barely considered top 5 D man material but some.

I hope he can pull it together, and help Windsor and himself at the same time.
Simply put, no. But he was ranked so highly coming into the season for a reason and that potential, what he showed us last year, cannot be forgotten.

To be honest, I'm one of those who has been defending Ebert early this season. I got to see him in October and he looked solid. Not spectacular, but solid. A bit like Laughton, I didn't think a slow start would be that hard to overcome, because the defensive play was there and he showed potential offensively. When that's the case, it's good to know that there were numbers last year, because it gives you a better idea of the upside.

However, after I've had a chance to see the pair again over the past week in Ottawa, my tune is changing. Laughton is showing that offensive ability again (3 more assists last night), so he's back to the "safe pick; defensively responsible with offensive skills" territory, while Ebert truly has regressed and can no longer be counted on defensively either. A younger player, Monahan, skated circles around, next to, and through him all night. I had Ebert quite high on my list of OHL defensemen. That doesn't mean he will stay there for next month, in fact he's probably going to tumble next month for me. It's ok for a prospect to stagnate or slow down to a certain extent if you already know what he's capable of and if you see he's working on his game consistently. Players slump and then they pick up. Watching Ebert though, and knowing what he's capable of, it makes one wonder if he even wants to be drafted.

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12-03-2011, 01:22 PM
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He did show potential.....last year. You have to think some team (or perhaps several) see the value and feel that in the right situation it will come together for Ebert.
He was also in a very beneficial position last year. Esposito went in the first round because of his 16 year old season, and we all know how that turned out. You need to show potential closer to your draft year, and Ebert still needs to do that this year.

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12-03-2011, 04:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prophet of Glennie View Post
Ebert on the other hand; who looked extremely strong and confident on the PP last year, has looked terrible and lost on it, and that's just one thing among many.

I don't know, he has a tonne of potential, but we need results, I can't see any team taking him in the first round at all unless he starts showing a glimpse of the potential.
I was able to watch him play the last few weeks and Ebert has been more unlucky than anything! He definitely has good 2-way potential and looked really good especially last night. I can't comment on the PP because the last few games I don't think he's been playing on the PP; Vail played point last game.

Though I've noticed is his decision making at times isn't good, but Ceci's makes the same mistakes as him. One thing I didn't like about him, is he could be much tougher in front of his net. That was the weakest part I saw, but he good skater and rushed the puck up the zone countless times. I agree that the lack of points has been his lack of solid play on the PP, but I believe the points will start coming for him.

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12-03-2011, 09:13 PM
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I was able to watch him play the last few weeks and Ebert has been more unlucky than anything! He definitely has good 2-way potential and looked really good especially last night. I can't comment on the PP because the last few games I don't think he's been playing on the PP; Vail played point last game.

Though I've noticed is his decision making at times isn't good, but Ceci's makes the same mistakes as him. One thing I didn't like about him, is he could be much tougher in front of his net. That was the weakest part I saw, but he good skater and rushed the puck up the zone countless times. I agree that the lack of points has been his lack of solid play on the PP, but I believe the points will start coming for him.
We must have watched a different game last night. Monahan, Prince, and Toffoli were making Ebert look bad alot. He is an elite skater though.

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12-03-2011, 09:22 PM
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We must have watched a different game last night. Monahan, Prince, and Toffoli were making Ebert look bad alot. He is an elite skater though.
Agreed. Ebert looked horrible in his own end yesterday from my vantage point.

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12-03-2011, 10:18 PM
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Agree, as I said he needs to be tougher in his own zone, a lot of players took advantage of him. But otherwise I thought he looked good.

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