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Scoring Chance Data through November 30

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Old
12-02-2011, 11:08 AM
  #1
Potatoe1
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Scoring Chance Data through November 30

Great article by Cam Charon over at Canuck Nation.

He has been tracking scoring chances for and against while every player is on the ice

http://canucksarmy.com/2011/12/1/can...rough-november


Forwards

Quote:
Skater Chances For Chances Against Chance%
Ryan Kesler 80 50 61.5%
Chris Higgins 98 63 60.9%
David Booth 63 44 58.9%
Alex Burrows 87 78 52.7%
Henrik Sedin 100 91 52.4%
Daniel Sedin 92 85 52.0%
Cody Hodgson 69 64 51.9%
Jannik Hansen 65 71 47.8%
Maxim Lapierre 47 54 46.5%
Dale Weise 34 48 41.5%
Aaron Volpatti 31 45 40.8%
Andrew Ebbett 11 16 40.7%
Manny Malhotra 44 65 40.4%

Defense

Quote:
Skater EVF EVA Chance%
Dan Hamhuis 123 97 55.9%
Kevin Bieksa 128 108 54.2%
Sami Salo 74 64 53.6%
Alex Edler 96 92 51.1%
Keith Ballard 72 75 49.0%
Aaron Rome 18 19 48.6%
Andrew Alberts 35 53 39.8%
Alex Sulzer 17 26 39.5%

From what I understand the Canucks also track scoring chances for their own internal review. This data actually seems quite consistent with the coaching decisions we have seen through most of this season.

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Old
12-02-2011, 11:34 AM
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Great thread! I think these stats have more to do with tracking the statistics on lines rather than individual players. For example, guys like Volpatti and Weise are at 41% and they obviously bog down LaPierre's percentage. Or Maholtra, who is at 40%, hurt Hodgson and Hansens percentage.

Whats really ugly is looking at the Sedin line. They should be way higher then where they're at now. Perhaps their defense has taken a nose dive over the years.

Alberts looks like a chicken with his head cut off out there and these stats definitely show that.

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12-02-2011, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by whoshouse View Post
Great thread! I think these stats have more to do with tracking the statistics on lines rather than individual players. For example, guys like Volpatti and Weise are at 41% and they obviously bog down LaPierre's percentage. Or Maholtra, who is at 40%, hurt Hodgson and Hansens percentage.
Yeah I agree.

I was a bit worried AV might take out Hodgson after his poor effort against CBJ, but if they are doing this type of internal review then Cody's spot is fairly safe.

At even strength he has out scored, out chanced, and out shot the opposition and he is clearly an asset o the power play.

As long as that continues, it should be enough to keep him in the line up, even with a coach who is know to be tough on rookies.



Quote:
Whats really ugly is looking at the Sedin line. They should be way higher then where they're at now. Perhaps their defense has taken a nose dive over the years.
Have to agree on that.

Keep in mind these numbers don't include last nights game where they likely had 10+ scoring chances with very few against.

That would have made some difference but the point is very valid, they simply haven't been as good at even strength this season.


Quote:
Alberts looks like a chicken with his head cut off out there and these stats definitely show that.
Yeah Alberts and Sultzer look prety terrible in the chances for / against department.

Interesting to note that Ballard is almost 50% despite playing the majority of his minutes with players well below that total. Further to that he starts a lot more in the defensive zone then some of the other defenseman.

Watching the games I have mostly felt that Ballard was crap this season but these numbers certianly will force me to re-evaluate.


Last edited by Potatoe1: 12-02-2011 at 12:06 PM.
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Old
12-02-2011, 11:59 AM
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Given that the Sedins are #2 and #3 in the league (behind Parros) in offensive zone starts at ES, their ratio of chances for and against is way too low. You can't have an offensive zone start percentage of 78% like they do and barely saw off the competition in term of scoring chances.

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12-02-2011, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Potatoe1 View Post
Interesting to note that Ballard is almost 50% despite playing the majority of his minutes with players well below that total. Further to that he starts a lot more in the defensive zone then some of the other defenseman.

Watching the games I have mostly felt that Ballard was crap this season but these numbers certianly will force me to re-evaluate.
I don't want to turn this in to a Ballard hate fest and I'll probably leave once the "Ballard Suxs!" posters come by but I personally think Ballard has been getting better since hes come back from his injury. I especially like him when hes playing with skilled players like the Sedins. Hes really adapt to keeping the puck in the off zone and making some nice passes. Hes also got the quickness and speed to do well in the transition game. I think it just boils down to Ballards finish. His shooting is the only thing thats holding him back. And with some more playing time I see him finishing his chances more regularly.

The thing with Ballard is that hes sort of like Bieksa in that he needs some one who he can trust playing as his d partner. If he doesn't trust his partner (ie Alberts) hes less likely to pass him the puck and more likely to try to skate the puck out or shoot it up the boards which cause turnovers or negates the teams transition to offense.

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12-02-2011, 01:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Given that the Sedins are #2 and #3 in the league (behind Parros) in offensive zone starts at ES, their ratio of chances for and against is way too low. You can't have an offensive zone start percentage of 78% like they do and barely saw off the competition in term of scoring chances.
I agree, I think most of this is largely part to not shooting enough and other teams being wiser about the cycle.

In any way, sort of disappointing.

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12-02-2011, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Reverend Mayhem View Post
I agree, I think most of this is largely part to not shooting enough and other teams being wiser about the cycle.

In any way, sort of disappointing.
This team has historically been a team that has no finish. As we saw last night, the cycle was very effective, however, the finishing wasn't always there.

They've gotten better over the years and it may be with the additions of Booth and Hodgson our finishing will become even more prominent.

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12-02-2011, 01:31 PM
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Chris Higgins has more scoring chances for and fewer chances against than Daniel Sedin?? I never would have guessed that, wow.

For guys on our checking line that makes sense that they have a percentage below 50 as they aren't players put into an offensive role. I'm surprised that our second line has been playing like our first line in terms of chances though. Now if only they could finish...

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Old
12-02-2011, 01:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Chris Higgins has more scoring chances for and fewer chances against than Daniel Sedin?? I never would have guessed that, wow.

For guys on our checking line that makes sense that they have a percentage below 50 as they aren't players put into an offensive role. I'm surprised that our second line has been playing like our first line in terms of chances though. Now if only they could finish...
It isn't surprising that the second line has been so dominant in their territorial play yet hasn't got that much to show for it.

Higgens is just a fantastic 2-way player but has always struggled to finish. Booth and Kesler a both good finishers but have had major struggles with confidence and comfort this season.

In the months to come I would expect that lines goal differentials to start moving much more in line with it's scoring Chance differential. Kesler and Booth are just much better finishers then they have shown to this point of the season.

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12-02-2011, 02:09 PM
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Last edited by Hammer79: 02-22-2012 at 01:42 PM.
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12-02-2011, 02:12 PM
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Lot of comments about the Sedins' disappointing scoring chance ratios.

Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Given that the Sedins are #2 and #3 in the league (behind Parros) in offensive zone starts at ES, their ratio of chances for and against is way too low. You can't have an offensive zone start percentage of 78% like they do and barely saw off the competition in term of scoring chances.
Don't get me wrong, the scoring chance metrics are interesting but in this case they don't really jive with more objective numbers like CORSI and even strength +/-.. The Sedins are 3-4th and 2-3rd on the team among forwards in those two statistics.

It would seem that the Sedins are carrying the play and producing results at a higher rate than the scoring chances figures indicate.

Of course, it's also possible that the Sedins get caught up trying to keep the play in the offensive zone (I notice they take a lot of ticky tacky penalties doing this) and are surrendering grade A chances coming back the other way.. but you can't argue with the figure that counts most and the Sedins are up about a goal and a half for every 60 minutes of even strength play.

edit: And yes their role is predominantly offensive.. that is usually the case for the league's best offensive forwards, especially on teams with enough depth to play other players in more defensive roles.

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12-02-2011, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Lot of comments about the Sedins' disappointing scoring chance ratios.



Don't get me wrong, the scoring chance metrics are interesting but in this case they don't really jive with more objective numbers like CORSI and even strength +/-.. The Sedins are 3-4th and 2-3rd on the team among forwards in those two statistics.

It would seem that the Sedins are carrying the play and producing results at a higher rate than the scoring chances figures indicate.

Of course, it's also possible that the Sedins get caught up trying to keep the play in the offensive zone (I notice they take a lot of ticky tacky penalties doing this) and are surrendering grade A chances coming back the other way.. but you can't argue with the figure that counts most and the Sedins are up about a goal and a half for every 60 minutes of even strength play.

edit: And yes their role is predominantly offensive.. that is usually the case for the league's best offensive forwards, especially on teams with enough depth to play other players in more defensive roles.
CORSI tracks every puck that is directed towards the net. A soft floater from the point, for example, would be counted as equal to a point blank shot from the slot. I personally value scoring chances more than the amount of times a puck is directed towards the net.

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12-02-2011, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoshouse View Post
This team has historically been a team that has no finish. As we saw last night, the cycle was very effective, however, the finishing wasn't always there.

They've gotten better over the years and it may be with the additions of Booth and Hodgson our finishing will become even more prominent.
I don't why that isn't brought up more.

It was the sole reason we scored 8 goals in 7 games. We got a lot of shots, we got a lot of chances, but we wasted them.

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12-02-2011, 02:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
CORSI tracks every puck that is directed towards the net. A soft floater from the point, for example, would be counted as equal to a point blank shot from the slot. I personally value scoring chances more than the amount of times a puck is directed towards the net.
Well the least subjective and most important stat of all is goals and in that respect the Sedins and their linemate are 1-2-3 on the team.

So yeah, even if every single shot they take is a "soft floater from the point" it's hard to argue with the end results.

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12-02-2011, 02:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Well the least subjective and most important stat of all is goals and in that respect the Sedins and their linemate are 1-2-3 on the team.

So yeah, even if every single shot they take is a "soft floater from the point" it's hard to argue with the end results.
What is concerning though is the Sedins lack of scoring touch when not on the powerplay. Daniel and Henrik each only have 3 even strength goals this season. Although even strength play has been an issue for the entire team this year. But it does suggest that if we aren't getting the calls, we're a pretty easy team to shut down.

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12-02-2011, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
What is concerning though is the Sedins lack of scoring touch when not on the powerplay. Daniel and Henrik each only have 3 even strength goals this season. Although even strength play has been an issue for the entire team this year.
I'd like for them to score more often, but you may have noticed that both Sedins are skilled playmakers.

It's also worth mentioning that despite scoring just six of them the Sedins have been on the ice for 20 even strength goals this year, good for 23rd in the league.

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12-02-2011, 02:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Lot of comments about the Sedins' disappointing scoring chance ratios.

Don't get me wrong, the scoring chance metrics are interesting but in this case they don't really jive with more objective numbers like CORSI and even strength +/-.. The Sedins are 3-4th and 2-3rd on the team among forwards in those two statistics.

It would seem that the Sedins are carrying the play and producing results at a higher rate than the scoring chances figures indicate.

Of course, it's also possible that the Sedins get caught up trying to keep the play in the offensive zone (I notice they take a lot of ticky tacky penalties doing this) and are surrendering grade A chances coming back the other way.. but you can't argue with the figure that counts most and the Sedins are up about a goal and a half for every 60 minutes of even strength play.

edit: And yes their role is predominantly offensive.. that is usually the case for the league's best offensive forwards, especially on teams with enough depth to play other players in more defensive roles.
I don't want to be too critical of the Sedins because they are fantastic players and are providing exceptional value for their contracts; however, they are also getting a portion of the offensive opportunities that virtually no other player in the league is getting at ES so I think that should be factored in when judging their play.

Frankly I see this as more of a coaching issue than a Sedin issue though. I don't think any players other than goons should be that many starts in the offensive zone. 2 years ago when Henrik Sedin had the best offensive ES season since the mid '90s he did so on the back of much more reasonable offensive zone starts (57% or so compared to the nearly 80% he's gotten in the past season and a bit). I don't think this total focus on offense has served their overall game or the team's scoring depth. Every player is going to struggle at times and when the Sedins struggle or are injured as we saw last playoffs, a lot of the scoring opportunities are being wasted.

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12-02-2011, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
It's also worth mentioning that despite scoring just six of them the Sedins have been on the ice for 20 even strength goals this year, good for 23rd in the league.
And to add to that, there are the PP chances they've given opponents, usually via hooking penalties in the defensive zone. Both of them are on track for career highs in PIM and it's all been minors - they're tied for the team lead with 10 each, nobody else has more than 7.

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12-02-2011, 03:16 PM
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Wow... Higgins is a pleasant surprise. 60.9%

Andrew Alberts is just terrible.

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12-02-2011, 03:17 PM
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Henrik Sedin is actually fourth among forwards in terms of penalties drawn per 60 minutes of even strength ice time, and is nearly at even in terms of penalties drawn/taken.

But yes the Sedins and Alex Burrows are the only Canuck forwards who take more penalties than they draw.. and of course, aggravating penalties are something both Sedins could stand to improve upon.

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12-02-2011, 03:22 PM
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I don't why that isn't brought up more.

It was the sole reason we scored 8 goals in 7 games. We got a lot of shots, we got a lot of chances, but we wasted them.
No, it really wasn't.

Tim Thomas had a 0.969 save percentage at even strength. Had he recorded the same save percentage as his record breaking regular season (and I'm talking even strength only), te Canucks would have had 15 goals.

Clearly a 0.969 at evens isn't sustainable. The amount of point blank goals TT stopped was unreal and if you replay that series 100 times, I bet the Canucks win more than they don't..

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12-02-2011, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Lard_Lad View Post
And to add to that, there are the PP chances they've given opponents, usually via hooking penalties in the defensive zone. Both of them are on track for career highs in PIM and it's all been minors - they're tied for the team lead with 10 each, nobody else has more than 7.
Yeah some of those calls have just been horrible though.

The Sedins seem to get called for the most absurd little tugs and pulls, it's really very annoying and I'm not sure what causes it.

I agree they need to work on this a bit but at the same time it seems other top players get significantly more slack.

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12-02-2011, 05:13 PM
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Yeah some of those calls have just been horrible though.

The Sedins seem to get called for the most absurd little tugs and pulls, it's really very annoying and I'm not sure what causes it.

I agree they need to work on this a bit but at the same time it seems other top players get significantly more slack.
Vancouver players has had reputation (justifiably? possibly not) on diving issues and always complaining about the refereeing. They should stop doing that, even if they get miss calls. Referees aren't stupid they review their games and watch videos. If they see on video that very time they make a call, our players complain about it...it doesn't help at all it just pisses them off. Burrows been doing that a lot.


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12-02-2011, 05:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
No, it really wasn't.

Tim Thomas had a 0.969 save percentage at even strength. Had he recorded the same save percentage as his record breaking regular season (and I'm talking even strength only), te Canucks would have had 15 goals.

Clearly a 0.969 at evens isn't sustainable. The amount of point blank goals TT stopped was unreal and if you replay that series 100 times, I bet the Canucks win more than they don't..
We probably do, if our defense wasn't so injured and Luongo stopped the occasional goal.

Buuuuuut, we didn't capitalize on a large majority of chances. You cannot argue that.

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12-02-2011, 06:08 PM
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TL;DR:

AV and his assistant coaches know what is going on. They have the right players in the right situations it seems.

Ballard is playing better than last year, and is safely the 5th d-man at this point.

Sedin line can improve their defensive play.

Hodgson has been the best 'bottom 6' player.

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