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2011-2012 Rangers Prospects Thread (Juniors, College, International, Other) *Part 4*

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Old
12-08-2011, 11:46 AM
  #126
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Originally Posted by DrSutton View Post
I think that miller would like to be playing professionally (hence the contract) next year, but it might behoove the Rangers to keep him in Junior for another year. What do you guys think?
The Rangers have generally been conservative with prospects. He won't go pro unless he has a particularly awesome camp that shows he's more than prepared for professional play. And I doubt they would bring him in if they thought he'd be with the Whale for most/all of the year.

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12-08-2011, 12:17 PM
  #127
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As of right now, Miller should play in the OHL again next season. I don't think he's physically that ready for the pros and I don't think he dominating that much to be pushed into the AHL at 19.

There is absolutely no reason to rush the kid unless he is 100% ready. I've read comments from first hand accounts that say yes he is playing well, but he is also making mistakes. Nothing i've read makes me thinks he is too good for the OHL.

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12-08-2011, 12:17 PM
  #128
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I think if Miller continues his current pace he will definitely turn pro next year, even if they think he will play on the Whale all season. Not sure what the benefits to going back to juniors would be as he would get ample playing time in CT and he's physically matured enough that he seems like he is capable of handling himself down there.

I'm guessing that the sooner the Rangers can fully control his development the better in their eyes.

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12-08-2011, 12:19 PM
  #129
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My gut tells me he is in Hartford next season.

And I think alot of that is going to hinge on hos he does for the Whale in the PO's this year should his team get bumped early. Hopefully his team is not hosting the Memorial Cup.

Can anyone provide that info?

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12-08-2011, 12:20 PM
  #130
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I wouldn't go wasting a year of his ELC if you dont think he has a legitimate shot to make the team out of camp.

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12-08-2011, 12:36 PM
  #131
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I wouldn't go wasting a year of his ELC if you dont think he has a legitimate shot to make the team out of camp.
didnt grachev's ELC slide that first year in hartford? (not burn a year because he COULD still be in CHL)

miller's situation is the same (drafted out of other league, then go to CHL)

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12-08-2011, 12:45 PM
  #132
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didnt grachev's ELC slide that first year in hartford? (not burn a year because he COULD still be in CHL)

miller's situation is the same (drafted out of other league, then go to CHL)
ELCs don't slide if you're playing pro hockey, regardless if it's the AHL or NHL. They only slide if you go the CHL/NCAA/SEL/KHL/etc. route. Eligibility to play in another league has nothing to do with it. ELCs are 2-way contracts, in which you get a lower salary for playing in the AHL, and a higher one for the NHL.

The only exception is the 9-game tryout. Prospects can play up to 9 pro games before burning a year off their ELC. That's why borderline prospects often get a few games in the beginning of the season, then get returned to juniors.

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12-08-2011, 01:07 PM
  #133
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ELC do slide, even in the AHL, for players under 20 years old, if they don't play more than 9 NHL games.

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12-08-2011, 01:18 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by jniklast View Post
ELC do slide, even in the AHL, for players under 20 years old, if they don't play more than 9 NHL games.
This is correct. Artie played 4 years on his ELC. 2 years in Hartford and 2 years with the Rangers.

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12-08-2011, 02:01 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by jniklast View Post
ELC do slide, even in the AHL, for players under 20 years old, if they don't play more than 9 NHL games.
Well, that is useful then.

For the record, you cannot play in the NCAA with a pro contract under any circumstances.

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12-08-2011, 07:52 PM
  #136
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A few Rangers prospects are playing tonight:

Yogan has 1g and 1a and is a +2 through 2 periods.

Ceresnak is a +2 through 2 as well (Same team as Yogan).

Stajcer's Owen Sound team is playing and losing 4-1, he is not in net as of right now.

St. Croix is playing tonight at 10.

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12-08-2011, 08:28 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Fireonk View Post
I think if Miller continues his current pace he will definitely turn pro next year, even if they think he will play on the Whale all season. Not sure what the benefits to going back to juniors would be as he would get ample playing time in CT and he's physically matured enough that he seems like he is capable of handling himself down there.

I'm guessing that the sooner the Rangers can fully control his development the better in their eyes.

You remember what happened to Grachev?

Yes, they are two different players. But it's just one of many examples when a kid is called up to the pros too quickly, and suddenly he loses confidence and stops developing.

Unless he's absolutely dominant in Traverse and looks very good in preseason, he should go back to juniors.

Look at Bourque. Think of how great he looked in Traverse and preseason. Now think about how little he's done in the AHL. That's how things are more often than not. Are there exceptions? Sure, but "the rule" happens much more than the exceptions.

Traverse is essentially ECHL-level hockey. More talent, less experience, but I can see the average Traverse team playing with an ECHL team to a competitive 7-game series. Unless you are great in Traverse, you won't be good in the AHL.

I want Miller to be really, really good in September to avoid sending him back to Canada.

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12-08-2011, 09:18 PM
  #138
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Miller isn't anything like Grachev.

Playing style, IQ, character, nothing alike.

Miller is more like Stepan then Grachev. He's a heady player and a playmaker.

I wouldn't be surprised eitherway, though, if he went back to Junior or played in the AHL next year.

However, what I doubt is him playing below the NHL to start 13-14.

I believe when they drafted him, both he and the Rangers had an excellerated path to the NHL in mind.

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12-08-2011, 09:45 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
Miller isn't anything like Grachev.

Playing style, IQ, character, nothing alike.

Miller is more like Stepan then Grachev. He's a heady player and a playmaker.

I wouldn't be surprised eitherway, though, if he went back to Junior or played in the AHL next year.

However, what I doubt is him playing below the NHL to start 13-14.

I believe when they drafted him, both he and the Rangers had an excellerated path to the NHL in mind.

I knew this coming was coming. That's why I said that there are different types of players to whom this happened. Let's keep in mind that Grachev was seen as the ultimate blue chipper when he first turned pro. Everyone was saying that Anisimov is a slow learner, but Grachev is so much better and will catch up to Anisimov within months. One Hartford newspaper article was downright insulting to Anisimov in its comparson.

When I first raised on this board that Grachev may not be as good as people think he is, I was accused of trolling. [On HF, "trolling" means saying that the person's favorite team's future may not be absolutely great. Fans here are somewhat realistic about the present, but a large majority is delusional about the future. This applies particularly to teams whose future is dark. Telling this to any fan will get you an accusation of trolling and an instant trip to the ignore list.]

Anyway, to get to the main point. While Grachev and Miller may be very different types of players, it doesn't mean that Miller would be immune to losing confidence or being in over his head. This has nothing to do with style. It's basic ability and experience.

You err on the side of safety. What's the worst that can happen if he gets sent back to the OHL? He'll dominate there, gain confidence and come to the pros the following year in a better physical state.

What's the worst thing that can happen if he goes to the AHL and isn't ready? His career will be severely harmed.

This doesn't mean that nobody should turn pro early, but we better be sure that the kid is ready for professional hockey before we place him there.

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12-08-2011, 09:54 PM
  #140
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How is St. Croix doing tonight?

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12-08-2011, 09:55 PM
  #141
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I wouldn't be surprised eitherway.

But, from everything that had been said from Miller's end and the Rangers end, J.T. was going to be fast tracked.

I don't believe they wanted to waste time with this particular player.

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12-08-2011, 10:02 PM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
I wouldn't be surprised eitherway.

But, from everything that had been said from Miller's end and the Rangers end, J.T. was going to be fast tracked.

I don't believe they wanted to waste time with this particular player.
Agreed.

It's why he chose to go to the OHL and not college, so that he could get physically used to the longer schedule of the NHL

OHL this year, AHL next year, NHL the year after.

He's showing more that people expected, I can see him doing the same next season.

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12-08-2011, 10:06 PM
  #143
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How is St. Croix doing tonight?
2 primary assists, +2. 12 minutes left.

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12-08-2011, 10:59 PM
  #144
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2 primary assists, +2. 12 minutes left.
Did someone promise to whack one of his family members every time he doesn't get multiple points? Talk about a guy who's on fire. 43 points in 31 games. That's exactly 100 point pace over the 72 WHL schedule.

Let's keep in mind that he's in the most defense-minded junior league in the world. This is the WHL in 2011, not the QMJHL in 1988. And this isn't even his final junior year. He's still only 18, and won't have his next birthday before the end of the season.

If he keeps it up into January, he will deserve the "Shiny New Toy" status.

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12-08-2011, 11:41 PM
  #145
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Did someone promise to whack one of his family members every time he doesn't get multiple points? Talk about a guy who's on fire. 43 points in 31 games. That's exactly 100 point pace over the 72 WHL schedule.

Let's keep in mind that he's in the most defense-minded junior league in the world. This is the WHL in 2011, not the QMJHL in 1988. And this isn't even his final junior year. He's still only 18, and won't have his next birthday before the end of the season.

If he keeps it up into January, he will deserve the "Shiny New Toy" status.
You rely way too much on stats. I want St. Croix to turn out to be a big time scorer, but you're getting ahead of yourself. Scoring in juniors is great, but we have no idea how his game will translate from juniors to the pros. None. He doesn't have the bankable combination of assets like elite speed, size, strength, etc that would help project how he'll do. He's a boom or bust pick, and while the early returns are encouraging, it's really hard to get too excited about him until he shows he can score in the pros. Again, I'd be thrilled if he turns out to be a big time NHL scorer, but you jump to conclusions on guys based on point production in the lower levels way too much. It's amazing that you find a way to pump this kid up while likening Miller to Grachev in the same series of posts. Stat surfing isn't scouting. It tells you nothing about a guy's overall game.

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12-09-2011, 12:45 AM
  #146
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You rely way too much on stats. I want St. Croix to turn out to be a big time scorer, but you're getting ahead of yourself. Scoring in juniors is great, but we have no idea how his game will translate from juniors to the pros. None. He doesn't have the bankable combination of assets like elite speed, size, strength, etc that would help project how he'll do. He's a boom or bust pick, and while the early returns are encouraging, it's really hard to get too excited about him until he shows he can score in the pros. Again, I'd be thrilled if he turns out to be a big time NHL scorer, but you jump to conclusions on guys based on point production in the lower levels way too much. It's amazing that you find a way to pump this kid up while likening Miller to Grachev in the same series of posts. Stat surfing isn't scouting. It tells you nothing about a guy's overall game.
It has nothing to do with stat surfing for me . Watch the guy spend some bucks on whl live you can see every game he has played. He is the center peice of the team has been since drafted has excelled at every level, Only reason he dropped to 4th round was he had a poor second half last season after comming back from injury, he goes into the tough areas what he lacks in elite speed(and he still is a good skater NHL fast enough )he makes up for in hands and smarts. 41 years I have been watching amateur players and some have the IT factor and MSC does.

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12-09-2011, 02:02 AM
  #147
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It has nothing to do with stat surfing for me . Watch the guy spend some bucks on whl live you can see every game he has played. He is the center peice of the team has been since drafted has excelled at every level, Only reason he dropped to 4th round was he had a poor second half last season after comming back from injury, he goes into the tough areas what he lacks in elite speed(and he still is a good skater NHL fast enough )he makes up for in hands and smarts. 41 years I have been watching amateur players and some have the IT factor and MSC does.
I have no problem with your scouting posts. It's very encouraging that he's showing what he's showing. It's just that RangersEsq has a pattern of trying to draw "statistical" conclusions on prospects and draft strategies based on pseudo-intellectual garbage (ie He's an 18-year-old on a 100 point pace in the WHL and that somehow automatically means..., etc).

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12-09-2011, 02:45 AM
  #148
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On JT Miller, I really like this pick and think this kid is our best prospect for sure.

But, I have to admit, that discussing if he should play in the NHL or OHL next season is a completely diffrent issue that's very hard to comment on today.

For example, except the AO's and Sid's, no matter how good a kid is almost, he needs a good environment if he is going to play in the league at the age of 19-20. Thats just a fact. Like Bäckström could break into the league next to AO and almost score a PPG, you know what, if he had two established top 2 line centers infront of him he probably would have scored 0.3 PPG and spent some time in the AHL that season.

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12-09-2011, 02:54 AM
  #149
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St. Croix was a good pick IMO.

He is a kid that can do a ton offensively with very little. Those kids are always special, and it seperates him from someone like JAM for example.

At the same time, we are only enlightning his ability to play on the absolute margin of the game -- his top end-ability so to speak. The NHL game is about going up and down the ice and doing your job shift after shift after shift. People in this aspect often mention how Zucc for example is particulary weak. Because he is -- in comparision with other NHLers. He definitely handles himself pretty well in comparision with how plenty of other guys in the AHL would do in the same areas (he simply makes up for his flaws by being very smart and by being able to get the puck out of trouble with his puck-skills etc). Like Zucc is far behind Prust, Callahan and co in many of the areas we are talking about, but he is definitely not far behind how like the avg AHL player would look in the same areas. My point is just, from a "prospects" point of view, he is pretty solid away from the puck.

St. Croix got a FAR way to go, just to get to Zucc's level of play away from the puck. Thats a very big challenge for him. Among others.

St. Croix

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12-09-2011, 03:50 AM
  #150
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You rely way too much on stats. I want St. Croix to turn out to be a big time scorer, but you're getting ahead of yourself. Scoring in juniors is great, but we have no idea how his game will translate from juniors to the pros. None. He doesn't have the bankable combination of assets like elite speed, size, strength, etc that would help project how he'll do. He's a boom or bust pick, and while the early returns are encouraging, it's really hard to get too excited about him until he shows he can score in the pros. Again, I'd be thrilled if he turns out to be a big time NHL scorer, but you jump to conclusions on guys based on point production in the lower levels way too much. It's amazing that you find a way to pump this kid up while likening Miller to Grachev in the same series of posts. Stat surfing isn't scouting. It tells you nothing about a guy's overall game.

Please put me on your ignore list.

You can't or won't read. I twice in two separate posts wrote that I am not comparing Miller and Grachev, but because both names appeared in the same post, your inability to read and comprehend does not allow you to understand what I mean, even when I wrote multiple times that I was not comparing the two.

Same for St. Croix, though the example is not as extreme in your inability to understand basic English.

Do you know what Shiny New Toy means? It means an unproven prospect, recently acquired, usually via draft, who attracted attention to himself by puttting up cute stats for a short period of time.

Anything else is not shiny new toy. A well developed prospect who produced for a long time up to his high expectations is a blue chipper. For instance, nobody calls Kreider a Shiny New Toy.

As for your general statement about me, go bank to what I write over the years and test how often I was wrong on prospects and how often I was right.

Just from the last summer (all of these I repeated many times):

1. Hagelin will make three team between Thanksgiving and Christmas;

2. MDZ will learn competent defense and will ve an NHLer;

3. McNeill's offense is overrated and we should avoid drafting him;

4. Jam is one of the most gifted offensive players in our system.

5. The Rangers should draft McColgan (nobody before me brought up his name or at least I did not see it).

6 . The Rangers should trade down to draft Grimaldi plus another late first rounder.

7. Thomas will not make the NHL this year despite his junior stats.


The only statement that isn't looking good right now is Grimaldi, but I always knew he was very high risk, but even a 25% chance of being an offensive star vs. 75% failure seemed worth it considering how mutch depth we have. It was not as if I ever thought Grimaldi was a safe choice.

The other 6 statements were pretty much on target or look to be on target at an early stage.


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