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Old
12-09-2011, 10:22 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
Who cares about Jagr? he has been a flyer for 3 months. He has played against us more than he has played for us. I really dont care what he wants. I care about how he helps my team.
Jagr is the one who decides if he's traded.

Who cares about you and your dumb posts? There is a reason why not everybody can run an organization like this one even though many think they can.

If they attemted to trade Jagr at this point they'd be dumb.

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12-09-2011, 10:23 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by OrangeCrush28 View Post
Jagr helps the team by being a ppg player, adding valuable experience and leadership especially with pronger out, shows the young guys proper work ethic, adds a dynamic on the powerplay that cannot be matched, and is part of an extremely dangerous first line.

Noone would give anything up spectacular to acquire him anyway knowing that it could be his last year. We need a big time dman if anything, and jagr surely isnt going to fetch that.

This trade has absolutely no upside.
You only have value if you are playing hockey.

Jagr may only be playing hockey for another 6 months...hopefully

A prospect such as brendan smith could potentially be a flyer for 10 years.

to me thats a hell of a lot of upside.

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12-09-2011, 10:26 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by crabcz View Post
Jagr is the one who decides if he's traded.

Who cares about you and your dumb posts? There is a reason why not everybody can run an organization like this one even though many think they can.

If they attemted to trade Jagr at this point they'd be dumb.
Does Jagr have a no trade clause? If so then obviously he isnt gong anywhere. If not then he is subject to the desires of the club.

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12-09-2011, 10:27 PM
  #29
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Pack it up, boys. We'll get em next year.

But Coach, we're first in the conference!

You're telling me we shouldn't give up the season so we can get Brendan Smith?

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12-09-2011, 10:27 PM
  #30
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You think Jagr is going to fetch a first round pick? Brendan smith? really?

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12-09-2011, 10:28 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
You only have value if you are playing hockey.

Jagr may only be playing hockey for another 6 months...hopefully

A prospect such as brendan smith could potentially be a flyer for 10 years.

to me thats a hell of a lot of upside.
Jagr doesn't get you Brendan Smith. Put the crack pipe down there son and be realistic. Go put it on the main board. Actually you know what, I'll do it for you.

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12-09-2011, 10:28 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by OrangeCrush28 View Post
You think Jagr is going to fetch a first round pick? Brendan smith? really?
I dont know. Im just giving an example.

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12-09-2011, 10:40 PM
  #33
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I dont know. Im just giving an example.
I like how you are thinking of ways to improve this team, but trading jagr isnt going to get us anywhere, we need a top 4 dman, either we try to steal one from a desperate team like the preds at the deadline, or we wait until UFA this summer, but it wont be trading jagr that gets us one.

I personally hope we wait and homer doesnt empty our cupboards again.

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12-09-2011, 10:44 PM
  #34
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I dont play video games. The only way we keep Jagr is if we are serious contenders this year. If we are serious contenders we should go all out right? That means potentially trading some of our young studs to solidify our Defense.

But if we trade jagr that is a way of admitting we are not contenders this year and secure another piece for the future.

Which one do you feel is more likely?

This is what will happen. We keep Jagr and make a small move to solidify our D. I dont agree with that. I think we need to make a decision on where our team is heading, weather we are win now or still need a few more pieces to win in the future.


I love that we are in first place with this young team. It is the best of both worlds really but can it last?
No. Your organizational philosophy is stupid.

You don't trade JVR for Iginla just because there's a good chance you can win this year. Then 1 injury in the playoffs and oops, there goes this year and there goes your future too.

The team the flyers have built right now should be a contender for the next DECADE. And they have an excellent chance (perhaps best in the East) to win the cup now.

You don't mess w/ that AT ALL. No trades of young stars to solidify the defense. What exactly would you solidify?!?

Pronger-Timonen (you aren't replacing these guys)
Carle-Coburn (you aren't getting something better than one of these two w/o significantly overpaying)
Meszaros (would cost way more than it's worth to upgrade this)
6th defenseman (could definitely upgrade)

So you really want us to ship some young players out to upgrade the 6th defense slot or overpay to upgrade something above that? REALLY?!?

Jesus christ you're a spoiled little kid if you think that defense isn't good enough to win a cup. The majority of the league would KILL to have that level of depth on their defense.

But OMGzzzzz Pronger has concussion symptoms, team is in trouble (while we're sitting in 1st place), time to consider selling the farm. SELL SELL SELL!!!!!

And we haven't even addressed what a trade like this would do to the organization's credibility. Jagr is a god of this game. He is one of the best 10 forwards of all time. He should be treated w/ dignity. When we agreed to a contract w/ him, it was a guarantee that we wouldn't move him UNLESS he wanted it. To go back on that guarantee would make us look like crap in the eyes of everyone in the league. Especially some of the players on our own team who have grown to like and respect Jagr and look up to him.

You think Jake Voracek would enjoy seeing his idol shipped out against his will? How bout his linemate Giroux?

One of the reasons this franchise has been successful over the years is b/c we treat former players that give their all and go 110% for the team w/ dignity and we treat them like family, and that makes this a destination where players want to play. And it creates a special bond w/ the players who play here. With all due respect, Brendan Smith isn't enough for me to want to change that philosophy, to risk players willingness to come, to disgrace Jagr, and to give up on this season.

But hey, if Brendan Smith is worth all that to you, then IDK what to say.


Last edited by WeekendAtBernies: 12-09-2011 at 10:49 PM.
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Old
12-09-2011, 10:45 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by OrangeCrush28 View Post
I like how you are thinking of ways to improve this team, but trading jagr isnt going to get us anywhere, we need a top 4 dman, either we try to steal one from a desperate team like the preds at the deadline, or we wait until UFA this summer, but it wont be trading jagr that gets us one.

I personally hope we wait and homer doesnt empty our cupboards again.
This is what im hoping for as well, a steal at the deadline. I doubt very much that there will be a better forward on a cap friendly contract than Jagr at the deadline. Teams that are set up to win this year would be motivated to deal for him. Teams that could do this that come to my mind are Red Wings And Vancouver. I dont think initially the offers for Jagr would be that great but if at the risk of losing out to the red wings I think Vancouver could step up there offer and vice versa.

Problem is Vancouver does not have much to offer.

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12-09-2011, 10:52 PM
  #36
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This is what im hoping for as well, a steal at the deadline. I doubt very much that there will be a better forward on a cap friendly contract than Jagr at the deadline. Teams that are set up to win this year would be motivated to deal for him. Teams that could do this that come to my mind are Red Wings And Vancouver. I dont think initially the offers for Jagr would be that great but if at the risk of losing out to the red wings I think Vancouver could step up there offer and vice versa.

Problem is Vancouver does not have much to offer.
Agreed. Jagr would cause a bidding war. Forget Smith, we could probably get him AND Tatar.

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12-09-2011, 11:23 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by crabcz View Post
Jagr is the one who decides if he's traded.

Who cares about you and your dumb posts? There is a reason why not everybody can run an organization like this one even though many think they can.

If they attemted to trade Jagr at this point they'd be dumb.
Yeah, ntc or no ntc, I'm fairly sure that Jagr is only traded if he himself asks to be traded.

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12-09-2011, 11:23 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
Agreed. Jagr would cause a bidding war. Forget Smith, we could probably get him AND Tatar.
Look i don't mean to be offensive but you're just nagging me at this point. If you want to contribute to this thread and put together a valid point then do so. If not then i get your point, you disagree.

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12-09-2011, 11:53 PM
  #39
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Look i don't mean to be offensive but you're just nagging me at this point. If you want to contribute to this thread and put together a valid point then do so. If not then i get your point, you disagree.
There was a nice long response 4 posts up that you didn't touch. It explains pretty clearly why this is a bad idea, but I'll summarize again:

#1: Jagr's value isn't anywhere near what you think it is. You'd be lucky to get a late 1st or mid level prospect for him, and even if Pronger was done for the year, Jagr for potentially this season and next season is worth a heck of a lot more than a mid-spec or a late 1st. Even just for this year, his value is higher than that. This team can still score and win w/o Pronger, as our climb up the standings without him proves.

#2: You discard Jagr's feelings in all this, but at his age, his feelings matter. He could very simply just retire if you threaten him w/ a trade. He hand-selected Philadelphia as the city he wanted to play in b/c it's not just about winning a cup to him, he wants to play a prominent role and be more than a complimentary piece. In Detroit, he'd be a complimentary piece and play 2nd fiddle to Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, etc. He'd also need to adjust to the locker room, the city, the fans, the media, etc. And @ 39 years of age, I can't imagine he'd have much of a tolerance for all that crap. I truly believe he plans to stay in Philly beyond this year or to retire. He was looking for a home, somewhere he could be comfortable and finish his career and he's found that. He loves our city and we love him.

#3: Even if Jagr reluctantly accepts a trade, it makes your team look terrible. You signed a 39 year old legend, guaranteed him he'd be a part of your team, and then while you're still in contention, you trade him away against his wishes. Is a single prospect (Brandon Smith) really worth the long-term damage this does to your reputation? Right now players still want to come here. 1 or two more "screw jobs" on good people like Jagr will eliminate that.

#4: What about the impact on current players? How is Giroux going to like his linemate and friend being traded away against his will for doing everything right? What about Voracek? Seeing his idol tossed away like that? You think that isn't going to affect Voracek's demands in a contract year?!?

#5: What about the impact Jagr has on this team as a leader? How many guys has he gotten to join him on his midnight workouts? He's an excellent role model and an excellent leader for this team. It's bad enough w/ Chris Pronger out... you wanna trade away another leader and another guy the players look up to?

#6: What about the fact that we can contend now? We're on top of the league, despite playing a good majority of the season w/o Pronger. In fact our record is pretty much even with or without Pronger. It's obviously a benefit to have him healthy, but it's not necessary for this team to contend. We have a potentially lights-out goalie, 4 other strong easy top-4 defenseman, and the deepest forward group in the NHL (and we're leading in scoring).

I respect you trying to improve the team, but this isn't the way to go about it.

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12-10-2011, 12:12 AM
  #40
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One third of the way into the season, first place in the East, highest scoring team in the league.

with Pronger: 8-3-2.

without Pronger: 9-4-1.

"Out indefinitely" doesn't mean "Sidney Crosby." It means "we don't know yet and because it's 2011 and we don't know the nature we aren't gonna make it a prediction."

Maybe it'll be that bad. But no one's said he's done until June or anything yet.

9-4-1.

STOP TRYING TO TRADE OUR PLAYERS.

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12-10-2011, 12:12 AM
  #41
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Sorry bud, but I don't think you understand how trades work at all.

Jagr is worth way more to this team right now than anything any team would give up for him at this point.

No one is going to give up anything close to significant for a 40 year old on a 1 year contract.

This thread is pointless.

Do you understand what the value for young defensive prospects is? A young stud defenseman? Think couturier or Jvr. Not Jagr.

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12-10-2011, 12:26 AM
  #42
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Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
There was a nice long response 4 posts up that you didn't touch. It explains pretty clearly why this is a bad idea, but I'll summarize again:

#1: Jagr's value isn't anywhere near what you think it is. You'd be lucky to get a late 1st or mid level prospect for him, and even if Pronger was done for the year, Jagr for potentially this season and next season is worth a heck of a lot more than a mid-spec or a late 1st. Even just for this year, his value is higher than that. This team can still score and win w/o Pronger, as our climb up the standings without him proves.

#2: You discard Jagr's feelings in all this, but at his age, his feelings matter. He could very simply just retire if you threaten him w/ a trade. He hand-selected Philadelphia as the city he wanted to play in b/c it's not just about winning a cup to him, he wants to play a prominent role and be more than a complimentary piece. In Detroit, he'd be a complimentary piece and play 2nd fiddle to Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, etc. He'd also need to adjust to the locker room, the city, the fans, the media, etc. And @ 39 years of age, I can't imagine he'd have much of a tolerance for all that crap. I truly believe he plans to stay in Philly beyond this year or to retire. He was looking for a home, somewhere he could be comfortable and finish his career and he's found that. He loves our city and we love him.

#3: Even if Jagr reluctantly accepts a trade, it makes your team look terrible. You signed a 39 year old legend, guaranteed him he'd be a part of your team, and then while you're still in contention, you trade him away against his wishes. Is a single prospect (Brandon Smith) really worth the long-term damage this does to your reputation? Right now players still want to come here. 1 or two more "screw jobs" on good people like Jagr will eliminate that.

#4: What about the impact on current players? How is Giroux going to like his linemate and friend being traded away against his will for doing everything right? What about Voracek? Seeing his idol tossed away like that? You think that isn't going to affect Voracek's demands in a contract year?!?

#5: What about the impact Jagr has on this team as a leader? How many guys has he gotten to join him on his midnight workouts? He's an excellent role model and an excellent leader for this team. It's bad enough w/ Chris Pronger out... you wanna trade away another leader and another guy the players look up to?

#6: What about the fact that we can contend now? We're on top of the league, despite playing a good majority of the season w/o Pronger. In fact our record is pretty much even with or without Pronger. It's obviously a benefit to have him healthy, but it's not necessary for this team to contend. We have a potentially lights-out goalie, 4 other strong easy top-4 defenseman, and the deepest forward group in the NHL (and we're leading in scoring).

I respect you trying to improve the team, but this isn't the way to go about it.
You bring up a lot of valid flaws in my idea. I may be overestimating jagrs value, and i certanly am not holding into accout his emotion during this idea. And there is the point that we are contenders now.

Basically what i wanted to do was a little thought experiment in game theory to see what fans think is valuable.

According to game theory every 30 years we should win a stanley cup. Now as we all know we have gone alot longer without winning. But yet we have been so competitive for so long that it doesn't matter sometimes that we have missed out on winning a championship for 30+ years. What we value is the chance at winning a Stanley cup the hope of winning a Stanley cup. But when you combine that with the economic model of sports ownership its gets even more complicated because obviously if you win a Stanley cup but fail to make the playoffs for 29 years you are going to be a failure economically. So ideally the best eonomic model is to put a team that can be competitive for a long period of time. Giving you a chance to have an extended window of winning while putting a product that fans value and will pay for.

And in this paticular instance i was measuring short term loses for long term gains and seeing how it would impact our short term and long term plan as a team.

Short term id say we are fairly affected by jagr's loss. I wont say devasted but we will feel an impact. Long term there is no affect i believe.

In sports you are looking at that perfect window of opportunity where all your key players are in the right age frame to maximize there output. For instance when Gretzky messier kurri coffey anderson lowe all came together at the right time frame that was key for there success.

Right now the flyers will be exeriencing a window like that in about 3-4 years when Giroux jvr voracek simmonds read couts schenn all reach an age where they are going to be most effective. That window may occur sooner depending ont he development of jvr couturier and schenn. Our Defenseman may be mez coburn carle gus and MAB. These are potential knowns.

Now we have a choice as a team. Which window do we want to maximize. Do we want to maximize our current window or do we want to maximize our window of opportunity 3-4 years down the road? This is a difficult one to evaluate. Potentially we could offer Couturier and JVR for Shea Weber. Shea Weber will have much more impact on this season than those two combined. That maximizes our current window but hurts future success potentially if Weber does not resign with us.

Once again this is a hypothetical example.

As a fan We want best of both worlds. We want to win now and we want to keep our talent for the future so we can win later. But in terms of Game Theory that is not logical and would be considered a bad play. In terms of Game theory Winning the stanley cup every 15 years with 14 years of not making the playoffs would be considered not only ideal but incredibly successful.

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12-10-2011, 12:41 AM
  #43
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Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
Dude, I'm not going to calm down. The season is OVER. Can't you see this?!?

We need to trade what we can while we still can. This team needs a reboot.

Jagr, Briere, Timonen, Giroux, Hartnell, they all need to go. We need to start w/ Schenn & Couturier... that's a solid base for the future.
This is hilarious to me ? This team is leading the whole damn league in goals scored, Girioux is rolling, Hartnell is rolling, Read, Jagr, etc are playing great......And you want to blow a Stanley cup contending team up ???????? FERGETABOUTIT...This club has as good a shot at the cup as any other team in this league at the moment, whether Pronger gets back soon or later.....This club is exciting, wins battles in the corners, and we have a defense who will not hesitate to get on offense and pinch like no other.....They get burned now and then, but i like what they are doing overall....Would not trade this club for any other in the league...

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12-10-2011, 12:46 AM
  #44
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This is hilarious to me ? This team is leading the whole damn league in goals scored, Girioux is rolling, Hartnell is rolling, Read, Jagr, etc are playing great......And you want to blow a Stanley cup contending team up ???????? FERGETABOUTIT...This club has as good a shot at the cup as any other team in this league at the moment, whether Pronger gets back soon or later.....This club is exciting, wins battles in the corners, and we have a defense who will not hesitate to get on offense and pinch like no other.....They get burned now and then, but i like what they are doing overall....Would not trade this club for any other in the league...
In the future, try to read the whole thread before commenting.

Or at least get your sarcasm detector out.

Because you failed here. And you failed hard.

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12-10-2011, 12:55 AM
  #45
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Plus I can see Jagr doing what Selanne has been doing. Just keep signing 1 year deal till he's done.
I could see this happening, sticking to one year at a time although I think that Jagr would try to plan out next year and would know if he wants to keep playing or not once the season ends rather than put off a decision for months like Selanne does only to end up playing another season or like Recchi playing until he's ready to stop.

I also do not think that he would be traded unless he really wants to be traded since he would probably take which teams he plays for into consideration before signing a new deal, even if things don't go as planned - plus I'm not sure there is much of a return for him due to an uncertain future, possible injuries issues, and age regardless of his ability to produce points.

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12-10-2011, 01:15 AM
  #46
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You bring up a lot of valid flaws in my idea. I may be overestimating jagrs value, and i certanly am not holding into accout his emotion during this idea. And there is the point that we are contenders now.

Basically what i wanted to do was a little thought experiment in game theory to see what fans think is valuable.

According to game theory every 30 years we should win a stanley cup. Now as we all know we have gone alot longer without winning. But yet we have been so competitive for so long that it doesn't matter sometimes that we have missed out on winning a championship for 30+ years. What we value is the chance at winning a Stanley cup the hope of winning a Stanley cup. But when you combine that with the economic model of sports ownership its gets even more complicated because obviously if you win a Stanley cup but fail to make the playoffs for 29 years you are going to be a failure economically. So ideally the best eonomic model is to put a team that can be competitive for a long period of time. Giving you a chance to have an extended window of winning while putting a product that fans value and will pay for.

And in this paticular instance i was measuring short term loses for long term gains and seeing how it would impact our short term and long term plan as a team.

Short term id say we are fairly affected by jagr's loss. I wont say devasted but we will feel an impact. Long term there is no affect i believe.

In sports you are looking at that perfect window of opportunity where all your key players are in the right age frame to maximize there output. For instance when Gretzky messier kurri coffey anderson lowe all came together at the right time frame that was key for there success.

Right now the flyers will be exeriencing a window like that in about 3-4 years when Giroux jvr voracek simmonds read couts schenn all reach an age where they are going to be most effective. That window may occur sooner depending ont he development of jvr couturier and schenn. Our Defenseman may be mez coburn carle gus and MAB. These are potential knowns.

Now we have a choice as a team. Which window do we want to maximize. Do we want to maximize our current window or do we want to maximize our window of opportunity 3-4 years down the road? This is a difficult one to evaluate. Potentially we could offer Couturier and JVR for Shea Weber. Shea Weber will have much more impact on this season than those two combined. That maximizes our current window but hurts future success potentially if Weber does not resign with us.

Once again this is a hypothetical example.

As a fan We want best of both worlds. We want to win now and we want to keep our talent for the future so we can win later. But in terms of Game Theory that is not logical and would be considered a bad play. In terms of Game theory Winning the stanley cup every 15 years with 14 years of not making the playoffs would be considered not only ideal but incredibly successful.
I'm a finance and economics major, so I get where you're coming from.

Game theory doesn't really apply here though. Game theory is more about best-responding to an opponent / market conditions... not winning once every 15 years. Game theory also works best when there are only 2 people in the game... you and your opponent. It's extremely difficult when you're talking about a 1000 (or so) stage game (a conservative estimate in regards to how many decisions you make about your franchise in the time span of the game), and 29 other players (NHL teams). Game theory is inherently difficult / nearly impossible to attempt to apply to situations such as this. I mean you can apply some of the basic ideas (maximizing profits / best-responding), but even those are difficult to apply since you don't have perfect information and have no clue what the potential payoffs of your team or another team are.

For example in game theory, you know if you set your price low and your opponent sets their price high, you get the max profit available. In sports though, you don't know what the payoff is for signing Giroux or for allowing your division rival to sign Richards. So how can you even begin to use that structure?

The other thing that really complicates this whole thing is the idea of no-trade clauses. I'd LOVE the idea of getting rid of some/all of the old pieces on this team and building for the future. Except for the fact that it's just not possible. Briere wouldn't waive his NTC except MAYBE to go the Buf. Timonen won't waive his NTC period. Pronger likely wouldn't waive his. So if you trade Jagr for futures, you're wasting Pronger, Timonen, and Briere. You're wasting 3 star players who are the highest paid guys on your team. I would estimate that the efficiency loss from "wasting" their production / their salary is greater than any potential benefit Brendan Smith adds.

The fact is that in a vacuum (game theory) where you know and can control the results, it's always best to have a set strategy. Now or later. But in the NHL (a dynamic always changing model w/ 100s of variables you cannot control for), this isn't always true. You can make every move possible to go for the immediate "profit" (the Stanley Cup), and come up short. Where in the vacuum of a game theory model that wouldn't happen. Likewise, you can build, build, build for the future and it could not work out with some of your prospects being busts.

Right now, as fans, we have the best of both worlds and we can indeed "have our cake and eat it too".

We're set up beautifully to win the cup right now. We have Pronger, Timonen, Briere, Jagr on the upper-end of the age bracket, we have some guys in their prime and we have some young guys yet to hit their prime. Regardless, we have the best scoring in the NHL and an amazing defensive core of players (and pretty much none of them are young inexperienced guys... they are all vets who've played in multiple playoff runs).

Likewise, we're also set up beautifully for the future. We have Bryz in goal for the next 5+ years (and Bob too... at least for now). We have Mesz and Coburn to lead the next generation of flyers defensemen (a #1 D is a need, but we have time to address this and if Suter hits free agency, that could be accomplished this offseason). And then we have the absolute best young core of forwards (except for maybe EDM?) with (Giroux-Couturier-Schenn down the middle, Hartnell-JVR-Voracek-Read-Simmonds on the wings (+ Briere on the wing for the next 4 years including 11-12), and Talbot and Rinaldo on the 4th. And we also have Akeson, Wellwood, Ranford, etc. in the prospect pool.

This is a team that is well setup for both now and later.

And why mess with that? Going into "win now" mode rarely works for a team. And pawning off assets to "rebuild" when you're a perfectly fine contender also rarely works for a team (we dodged a big time bullet trading Richie and Carter and somehow coming out of it = or perhaps ahead). Leave things alone for now.

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12-10-2011, 01:36 AM
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I'm a finance and economics major, so I get where you're coming from.

Game theory doesn't really apply here though. Game theory is more about best-responding to an opponent / market conditions... not winning once every 15 years. Game theory also works best when there are only 2 people in the game... you and your opponent. It's extremely difficult when you're talking about a 1000 (or so) stage game (a conservative estimate in regards to how many decisions you make about your franchise in the time span of the game), and 29 other players (NHL teams). Game theory is inherently difficult / nearly impossible to attempt to apply to situations such as this. I mean you can apply some of the basic ideas (maximizing profits / best-responding), but even those are difficult to apply since you don't have perfect information and have no clue what the potential payoffs of your team or another team are.

For example in game theory, you know if you set your price low and your opponent sets their price high, you get the max profit available. In sports though, you don't know what the payoff is for signing Giroux or for allowing your division rival to sign Richards. So how can you even begin to use that structure?

The other thing that really complicates this whole thing is the idea of no-trade clauses. I'd LOVE the idea of getting rid of some/all of the old pieces on this team and building for the future. Except for the fact that it's just not possible. Briere wouldn't waive his NTC except MAYBE to go the Buf. Timonen won't waive his NTC period. Pronger likely wouldn't waive his. So if you trade Jagr for futures, you're wasting Pronger, Timonen, and Briere. You're wasting 3 star players who are the highest paid guys on your team. I would estimate that the efficiency loss from "wasting" their production / their salary is greater than any potential benefit Brendan Smith adds.

The fact is that in a vacuum (game theory) where you know and can control the results, it's always best to have a set strategy. Now or later. But in the NHL (a dynamic always changing model w/ 100s of variables you cannot control for), this isn't always true. You can make every move possible to go for the immediate "profit" (the Stanley Cup), and come up short. Where in the vacuum of a game theory model that wouldn't happen. Likewise, you can build, build, build for the future and it could not work out with some of your prospects being busts.

Right now, as fans, we have the best of both worlds and we can indeed "have our cake and eat it too".

We're set up beautifully to win the cup right now. We have Pronger, Timonen, Briere, Jagr on the upper-end of the age bracket, we have some guys in their prime and we have some young guys yet to hit their prime. Regardless, we have the best scoring in the NHL and an amazing defensive core of players (and pretty much none of them are young inexperienced guys... they are all vets who've played in multiple playoff runs).

Likewise, we're also set up beautifully for the future. We have Bryz in goal for the next 5+ years (and Bob too... at least for now). We have Mesz and Coburn to lead the next generation of flyers defensemen (a #1 D is a need, but we have time to address this and if Suter hits free agency, that could be accomplished this offseason). And then we have the absolute best young core of forwards (except for maybe EDM?) with (Giroux-Couturier-Schenn down the middle, Hartnell-JVR-Voracek-Read-Simmonds on the wings (+ Briere on the wing for the next 4 years including 11-12), and Talbot and Rinaldo on the 4th. And we also have Akeson, Wellwood, Ranford, etc. in the prospect pool.

This is a team that is well setup for both now and later.

And why mess with that? Going into "win now" mode rarely works for a team. And pawning off assets to "rebuild" when you're a perfectly fine contender also rarely works for a team (we dodged a big time bullet trading Richie and Carter and somehow coming out of it = or perhaps ahead). Leave things alone for now.
But the thing is game theory can be applied to sports because sports are a buisness.

Yet to fans sports are not a business but a form of entertainment where our ultimate goal is to win.

And to the players its a business where salary is of the most importance but there are other important factors too such as winning and .

I just wanted to play around with all the diffrent dynamics that sports has to offer. IM sure there are game theories on sports that are used today for a variety of different purposes weather to be a successful team or to be a successful enterprise.

While there are no models currently available to the general public on this I have been just wondering to myself what a success model would look like to a fan, to a player and to an owner. they would all look different but all do depend on the importance placed on winning but not necessarily winning the championship.

THere have been some interesting studies done on game theory in baseball as well as football. I just wanted to see for myself what the fans valued most since im pretty sure what players and owners valued the most.

If you have time you think you could explain to me how you would set up a value model and a goal model for fans players and owners? I just find this really fun to think about and compare and contrast the different groups involved.

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12-10-2011, 02:49 AM
  #48
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You bring up a lot of valid flaws in my idea. I may be overestimating jagrs value, and i certanly am not holding into accout his emotion during this idea. And there is the point that we are contenders now.

Basically what i wanted to do was a little thought experiment in game theory to see what fans think is valuable.

According to game theory every 30 years we should win a stanley cup. Now as we all know we have gone alot longer without winning. But yet we have been so competitive for so long that it doesn't matter sometimes that we have missed out on winning a championship for 30+ years. What we value is the chance at winning a Stanley cup the hope of winning a Stanley cup. But when you combine that with the economic model of sports ownership its gets even more complicated because obviously if you win a Stanley cup but fail to make the playoffs for 29 years you are going to be a failure economically. So ideally the best eonomic model is to put a team that can be competitive for a long period of time. Giving you a chance to have an extended window of winning while putting a product that fans value and will pay for.

And in this paticular instance i was measuring short term loses for long term gains and seeing how it would impact our short term and long term plan as a team.

Short term id say we are fairly affected by jagr's loss. I wont say devasted but we will feel an impact. Long term there is no affect i believe.

In sports you are looking at that perfect window of opportunity where all your key players are in the right age frame to maximize there output. For instance when Gretzky messier kurri coffey anderson lowe all came together at the right time frame that was key for there success.

Right now the flyers will be exeriencing a window like that in about 3-4 years when Giroux jvr voracek simmonds read couts schenn all reach an age where they are going to be most effective. That window may occur sooner depending ont he development of jvr couturier and schenn. Our Defenseman may be mez coburn carle gus and MAB. These are potential knowns.

Now we have a choice as a team. Which window do we want to maximize. Do we want to maximize our current window or do we want to maximize our window of opportunity 3-4 years down the road? This is a difficult one to evaluate. Potentially we could offer Couturier and JVR for Shea Weber. Shea Weber will have much more impact on this season than those two combined. That maximizes our current window but hurts future success potentially if Weber does not resign with us.

Once again this is a hypothetical example.

As a fan We want best of both worlds. We want to win now and we want to keep our talent for the future so we can win later. But in terms of Game Theory that is not logical and would be considered a bad play. In terms of Game theory Winning the stanley cup every 15 years with 14 years of not making the playoffs would be considered not only ideal but incredibly successful.
You're talking to the wrong fan-base here buddy. I understand how a Flyers person would see this. But, we have been in the playoffs for 20 straight years with 6 cup appearances and four victories. So we hurt your Game theory. We trust the Red Wings theory and that is holding onto guys like Smith, and making better moves than rentals like Jagr.

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12-10-2011, 03:02 AM
  #49
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my bad, got linked over here from this post on the Red Wings thread. But the point still stands to the OP. But, explains the preaching to the wrong people argument, thought I posted it there.

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12-10-2011, 03:05 AM
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No way Jagr is traded anywhere. First, I can't imagine that future HOF and 39 years old player doesn't haven't NTC in his contract. If he doesn't than: 1) his agent will never have a job in NHL anymore and 2) if traded, he would rather retire and come back to Kladno to take care of his own team (+ the organisation would lost its face in my opinion cause this is not the way how to treat this kind of players, moreover very successful at the moment).

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