We're set up beautifully to win the cup right now. We have Pronger, Timonen, Briere, Jagr on the upper-end of the age bracket, we have some guys in their prime and we have some young guys yet to hit their prime. Regardless, we have the best scoring in the NHL and an amazing defensive core of players (and pretty much none of them are young inexperienced guys... they are all vets who've played in multiple playoff runs).
Likewise, we're also set up beautifully for the future. We have Bryz in goal for the next 5+ years (and Bob too... at least for now). We have Mesz and Coburn to lead the next generation of flyers defensemen (a #1 D is a need, but we have time to address this and if Suter hits free agency, that could be accomplished this offseason). And then we have the absolute best young core of forwards (except for maybe EDM?) with (Giroux-Couturier-Schenn down the middle, Hartnell-JVR-Voracek-Read-Simmonds on the wings (+ Briere on the wing for the next 4 years including 11-12), and Talbot and Rinaldo on the 4th. And we also have Akeson, Wellwood, Ranford, etc. in the prospect pool.
This is a team that is well setup for both now and later.
And why mess with that? Going into "win now" mode rarely works for a team. And pawning off assets to "rebuild" when you're a perfectly fine contender also rarely works for a team (we dodged a big time bullet trading Richie and Carter and somehow coming out of it = or perhaps ahead). Leave things alone for now.
That's the point: we have already shaped a great nucleus by trading for and signing great players that are in their prime right now. Schenn and Couturier may need another 3-4 years until they are able to carry a team themselves, so the time is either NOW or 3-4 years away. But 3 or 4 years from now Timonen, Briere, Jagr, Hartnell,... won't be available any more and the GM will be looking to fix major holes again and again and again....
my bad, got linked over here from this post on the Red Wings thread. But the point still stands to the OP. But, explains the preaching to the wrong people argument, thought I posted it there.
I think you will be best served if you re read the thread.
Synopsis however would be that scenario of jagr for smith was a ploy to see how fans react to win now vs win later . While both teams are competitive the flyers fans wanted to keep jagr whereas the red wings fans wanted to keep Smith. This im sure is due to some emotional connection fans have to players but in terms of winning which one is more popular to win now or to win later? Point being fans want both. They want to win now without having to give up the prospect and then they want that prospect to develop into an all star so they can win later. But the game theory of the NHL sets strict standards on the definition of success. But there are other definitions to understand as well not just from the fans pov but from all aspects of the sports as a business as a livelihood and as entertainment.
a great example that i wanted to bring up is the Florida Marlins. Winners of the 1997 world series. They then deconstructed there ball club and traded away kep componets and with those key components were able to bring in enough talent to win the 2003 world series only to deconstruct the team again. The marlins have been a success anyway you look at it in terms of on field success, but that same on field success has not trasnferred over to financial success or a fanbase that has a large following. Now keep in mind the restrictions of that region and of the marlins as an expansion team are numerous. So how do teams and fans and players define success is what im trying to get at. It isnt the same for all three, yet winning plays a key role in all three just not winning championships.
That's the point: we have already shaped a great nucleus by trading for and signing great players that are in their prime right now. Schenn and Couturier may need another 3-4 years until they are able to carry a team themselves, so the time is either NOW or 3-4 years away. But 3 or 4 years from now Timonen, Briere, Jagr, Hartnell,... won't be available any more and the GM will be looking to fix major holes again and again and again....
Good point.
As a fan I look at it like this. If i want to increase my odds of winning a championship this year I trade Couturier and Schenn for pieces that we can use this year.
But at the risk of doing that im in a situation where if i dont win this year my chance of winning in the future is greatly decreased.
So which is better? Improved odds this year for worst odds in the future? Or do nothing and lower this years odds and increasing future odds?
My belief is that fans are scared of Risking the future to win now. Fans want to win now and they want to win in the future. Which according to game theory is a poor strategy.
I'm not sold that we have a chance this year. It's not like the Flyers routinely start well before dropping off sharply in the second half of the season. There's enough key old guys and key rookies to expect this will happen again
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Down in the basement, I've got a Craftsman lathe. Show it to the children when they misbehave.
This isn't really Game Theory, it's more like Decisions Under Uncertainty.
OP apparently ignores several things:
- Flyers have a legitimate chance to win Cup this year
- Jagr is a big reason for their current success
- Jagr almost certainly has NTC
As pointed out by many others, there is also the effect this would have on future signings.
Finally, it's possible that each team/team's fans would keep their current player for non-sentimental reasons, based on how they fit into their system and future plans.
Originally when i thought about this i thought about the Red Wings. Wings are built to win now and there top 6 could use a bit more firepower. THey have a D prospect Brendan Smith who i know nothing about but figured he would be a nice prize. I dont think i would trade Jagr for a First however.
Im just worried that at the end of the year Jagr may hang them up and we may lose him for nothing.
I hate to side track the thread but seeing as how we are almost all in agreement that Jagr is at least staying the season and if Pronger misses most of the season/possibly the playoffs, do the Flyers try to go out and get another big D? I feel that they almost have to rather than rely on 2 prospects getting at most 20 min total ice time (that lack of ice time is eaten up by our other D and wears them down). Of course where do you draw the line of forfeiting pieces to fill holes (with or without making more holes) or harming the future? Do you do nothing?
Is Jagr going to be the reason (along with Pronger's injury) we try to win it all?
After last night's game, would any of you still try to trade Jagr?
I know it's early on in the season and everyone keeps claiming that the Bruins are better than the Flyers and that a "healthy Penguins team with Crosby" is also better than the Flyers.
I think the Flyers (even minus Pronger) could beat the Penguins with Crosby in a 7 game series. Something tells me that Jagr is waiting for that opportunity. Not only would it be sweet revenge for the way the Penguins fans and organization treated him but also for the way the Penguins beat his Rangers team in the 2008 playoffs.
I say if given the chance, Jagr would have a "legendary" series against the Penguins.
The Bruins seem like they are rolling but in the playoffs anything can happen and I like our chances. We're bigger on the wings now with Simmonds, Voracek and Jagr and the Bruins players can't knock them off the puck as easily.
I say keep Jagr. Who knows, this might be the Flyers' year.
After last night's game, would any of you still try to trade Jagr?
I know it's early on in the season and everyone keeps claiming that the Bruins are better than the Flyers and that a "healthy Penguins team with Crosby" is also better than the Flyers.
I think the Flyers (even minus Pronger) could beat the Penguins with Crosby in a 7 game series. Something tells me that Jagr is waiting for that opportunity. Not only would it be sweet revenge for the way the Penguins fans and organization treated him but also for the way the Penguins beat his Rangers team in the 2008 playoffs.
I say if given the chance, Jagr would have a "legendary" series against the Penguins.
The Bruins seem like they are rolling but in the playoffs anything can happen and I like our chances. We're bigger on the wings now with Simmonds, Voracek and Jagr and the Bruins players can't knock them off the puck as easily.
I say keep Jagr. Who knows, this might be the Flyers' year.
Could you imagine Jagr vs Crosby in the playoffs!?!??! I think that would be equal to or better than Crosby vs Ovechkin in the playoffs. WOW just thinking about that..
I'm not sold that we have a chance this year. It's not like the Flyers routinely start well before dropping off sharply in the second half of the season. There's enough key old guys and key rookies to expect this will happen again
I agree with you to a point. Just looking at players on a roster, its easy to say they dont have a chance. But if you look around the league, a lot of the "super" teams that some people had winning are doing horrendously. I dont think you can call it, at this time, a 30 game fluke, but teams like the Caps, Sharks and even the Kings are doing bad. Remember the commotion around here when Richards got traded to the Kings? "They won the cup. Give it to them already". Yea Richards is hurt, but the Kings are 13-12-4 right now. Not super threats everyone thought they would be.
I think it really depends on where we are at near the trade deadline. If we are still doing as well as we are now, I think it does stop becoming a fluke and starts becoming a legit chance. If we are out of playoffs and are close, we start to rethink our strategy. If we are totally out, we trade guys like Jagr who want to win the cup and we get better for the future.
I agree with you to a point. Just looking at players on a roster, its easy to say they dont have a chance. But if you look around the league, a lot of the "super" teams that some people had winning are doing horrendously. I dont think you can call it, at this time, a 30 game fluke, but teams like the Caps, Sharks and even the Kings are doing bad. Remember the commotion around here when Richards got traded to the Kings? "They won the cup. Give it to them already". Yea Richards is hurt, but the Kings are 13-12-4 right now. Not super threats everyone thought they would be.
I think it really depends on where we are at near the trade deadline. If we are still doing as well as we are now, I think it does stop becoming a fluke and starts becoming a legit chance. If we are out of playoffs and are close, we start to rethink our strategy. If we are totally out, we trade guys like Jagr who want to win the cup and we get better for the future.
Yeah, if it's closer to the playoffs and we are still rolling along, at that point I'm still against trading Jagr. Jagr helps us more on the team than he does off it. Breaking up the best line is something I wouldn't want to do.
I agree with you to a point. Just looking at players on a roster, its easy to say they dont have a chance. But if you look around the league, a lot of the "super" teams that some people had winning are doing horrendously. I dont think you can call it, at this time, a 30 game fluke, but teams like the Caps, Sharks and even the Kings are doing bad. Remember the commotion around here when Richards got traded to the Kings? "They won the cup. Give it to them already". Yea Richards is hurt, but the Kings are 13-12-4 right now. Not super threats everyone thought they would be.
I think it really depends on where we are at near the trade deadline. If we are still doing as well as we are now, I think it does stop becoming a fluke and starts becoming a legit chance. If we are out of playoffs and are close, we start to rethink our strategy. If we are totally out, we trade guys like Jagr who want to win the cup and we get better for the future.
There's literally 0 chance of us missing the playoffs this year. Would need to be a whole heap of injuries to stop us.
I think it really depends on where we are at near the trade deadline. If we are still doing as well as we are now, I think it does stop becoming a fluke and starts becoming a legit chance. If we are out of playoffs and are close, we start to rethink our strategy. If we are totally out, we trade guys like Jagr who want to win the cup and we get better for the future.
I think this sums it up right here. No need to trade a guy for anything if he is helping contribute and they are contending for home-ice advantage. If they are out, then it makes no sense to keep a 75 year old guy on the team when there are suitors who may deal something for him if they are close to a Cup.
There's literally 0 chance of us missing the playoffs this year. Would need to be a whole heap of injuries to stop us.
Like right now? Obviously its speculation right now but say we go into Tuesday without Giroux and Bryzgalov I wont feel the most confident. Yea Breezy hasnt been the best and I like Bob but losing Giroux, who honestly is our teams offense is going to sting...badly. We will miss his league leading GWGs, among other things.
Be interesting to see if Lavy can continue to get us to win with the players we have minus Giroux and Breezy. Pens did it without Malkin and Crosby, so it is possible. At that point, I think you put Briere with Hartnell and Jagr and just hope that line can put up all the points.
Like right now? Obviously its speculation right now but say we go into Tuesday without Giroux and Bryzgalov I wont feel the most confident. Yea Breezy hasnt been the best and I like Bob but losing Giroux, who honestly is our teams offense is going to sting...badly. We will miss his league leading GWGs, among other things.
Be interesting to see if Lavy can continue to get us to win with the players we have minus Giroux and Breezy. Pens did it without Malkin and Crosby, so it is possible. At that point, I think you put Briere with Hartnell and Jagr and just hope that line can put up all the points.
No, I mean like way more than right now.
At this point, Schenn has a minor concussion, Pronger has who knows what, Giroux is rumored to be fine and at worst will miss a couple games, and Bryz is rumored to have a minor "boo-boo". Basically his muscle is sore is the rumor I heard.
It would take a lot more than 3 minor injuries and 1 potentially major one (Pronger) to derail this team.
If Giroux was out for a massive length of time? Yeah, then maybe you worry, but he won't be.
My point is your scenarios are kind of ridiculous. odds are we're in the playoffs @ the deadline anywhere from #1 to #6. I don't see us being much lower than this.
We are the best team in the EC right now. Why would I contemplate trading a PPG player who makes 3.3M and has rediculous chemistry with CG? Hell no, provided he remains healthy, he gives us the best chance of going deep in the playoffs. Jagr stays.
Jagr said this was second time in his life he could chose where to go, do you really think he would sign something telling they can trade him away, so he spend his last years in some who-knows-what-****-team?
i don't think so.
ps: and to Jtown im glad ppl like you don't run the managment, i have many words to tell you, but none of them can be posted here, well i hope you get the idea.
We are the best team in the EC right now. Why would I contemplate trading a PPG player who makes 3.3M and has rediculous chemistry with CG? Hell no, provided he remains healthy, he gives us the best chance of going deep in the playoffs. Jagr stays.
This I couldn't say it any better myself.
If we don't make the playoffs I could see this trade take place. But lets be realistic we are gonna make the playoffs, and Jagr will be to important of a piece to trade away.
You don't trade Jagr when we're in playoff contention, let alone, leading the East at the moment
As for an extension, possibly.
We don't have much cap space next season if the roster stays the same as it is now. We have to priorotize our signings obviously. We have about $59.7m already against the cap
The ones I can with at least a possibility of coming back:
-Vorachek
-Jagr
-Zolnierczyk
-Bourdon
-Marshall
Who I don't expect to be back
-Carle
-Laperriere (obviously)
-Betts (obviously)
Trading Jagr makes no sense at all, the guy is a legend doing a comeback and signed for 1 year. Plus, he's having a great year and a great chemistry with Giroux. Plus, I can't think of a better veteran to teach Giroux; he has the potential of being a superstar (and some say he's already one), let's do everything we can to help him reach that potential.
For me, trading Jagr would only be viable in the same scenario as trading Forsberg: Flyers out of contention and Jagr approves Holmgren's request to trade him. On the latter, the appropriate approach would be along the lines of: "Jaromir, things have gone horribly wrong this season, and I'm sure you're as upset as the rest of us about how it unravelled. I've been approached by a couple of teams about landing you for the playoffs, and I want to get your feedback. I am very happy to keep you here in Philadelphia and I'm not at all going to pressure you to waive your no-trade clause. If you are interested in giving yourself a chance to play in the playoffs, though, I'll return their calls and we can make this work for both of us. The teams who have asked about you are: ________, ________ and _________. Please let me know what you think."
