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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton Oilers

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Old
12-10-2011, 02:55 PM
  #651
DisgruntledGoat
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Originally Posted by rick3652 View Post
they sent their best defenseman to the AHL. They traded away two of their best players. This is not a team trying to win, it is a team trying to lose to get first round pick which they got. I have no respect for any teams that does that and will always hate that team.
This, 'sent their best defenseman to the AHL' myth is so ridiculous, I'm inclined to start considering it trolling every time I hear it. If you really actually do need it explained to you: Souray demanded a trade, trashed the organization in the media, and was part of a clique in the dressing room that was acting entitled and unaccountable, and creating a bad environment for younger players. Everyone else who was part of that clique was moved out. No one would take injury-prone Sheldon Souray's bloated contract, so he was sent to another's team AHL affiliate to keep him as far away from the Edmonton Oilers as possible.

Secondly, I assume one of the players you are referring to is Dustin Penner. Dustin Penner who was traded at last year's trade deadline? When the team was already completely in the basement? That's some inept tanking to keep him for 75% of the season. And he's clearly showing what a difference-maker he is this season.

I don't know who the other 'best player' is. I'm sure its really obvious, but I'm drawing a blank right now.

The fact is, the Oilers were a terribly managed team that ended the 2009-2010 season with a roster full of injury-prone, underperforming, uninterested, overpaid mediocre players that no one in their right mind wanted. They didn't tank that year. They were actually up against the salary-cap, which is mind-blowing when you look at how bad that roster was. They drafted Taylor Hall that year. If you consider the following year to be 'tanking' (finishing 30th and drafting RNH) then I'd like to hear your ideas on how that disaster should have been righted in one off-season. A feat I doubt Sam Pollock could have accomplished.

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Old
12-10-2011, 03:01 PM
  #652
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
Perfect example of why scouting players based on points is completely pointless.

yep

I am shocked at how he is playing

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Old
12-10-2011, 03:04 PM
  #653
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He is only on pace for 169 shots and his shooting percentage is an unsustainable 21%.


He is not going to score 30-40 goals like he is on pace for now unless he stays really lucky all season or starts shooting more.

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12-10-2011, 03:13 PM
  #654
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rick3652 View Post
they sent their best defenseman to the AHL. They traded away two of their best players. This is not a team trying to win, it is a team trying to lose to get first round pick which they got. I have no respect for any teams that does that and will always hate that team.
Souray was not the Oilers best defensemam at the start of last year. Whitney was. Souray played poorly in 2009-2010 before getting injured, and had at best a marginal season in the AHL last year. Moreover, the decision to send him to the AHL came after no one would take his contract following his well publicized dispute with the Oilers over his injury status.

And aside from trading Penner who was in a major slump at the time, for a first in a deep draft, for a dman who may well end up a regular on the team, and for an additional 3rd rounder that almost ended up being a top 50 pick, what other trade are you talking about

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12-10-2011, 07:35 PM
  #655
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rick3652 View Post
they sent their best defenseman to the AHL. They traded away two of their best players. This is not a team trying to win, it is a team trying to lose to get first round pick which they got. I have no respect for any teams that does that and will always hate that team.
You can't be serious
3 forwards managed to stay healthy for over 70 games last year (Jones, Paarjavi, Cogliano). All 3rd line players at best.
Maybe check your facts before spewing such ********

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Old
12-10-2011, 08:32 PM
  #656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pancakes View Post
He is only on pace for 169 shots and his shooting percentage is an unsustainable 21%.


He is not going to score 30-40 goals like he is on pace for now unless he stays really lucky all season or starts shooting more.
Is he lucky or does he just pick his shots really well? He is a pass first player he only shoots when it is a prime opportunity.

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12-10-2011, 09:09 PM
  #657
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Originally Posted by Tetriser View Post
Is he lucky or does he just pick his shots really well? He is a pass first player he only shoots when it is a prime opportunity.
Luck is playing a big part in it for sure. If you look back at past seasons no more then one or two guys ever shoot over .200 and its never the same guy twice.

The top end for shooting percentage in the NHL career wise seems to be about .140 to .150 with guys like Crosby, Selanne, Knuble, Heatley, Marleau, MacArthur, Toews, Lucic, Recchi, Thonrton, Spezza, Vanek. etc falling into that range. Some names are surprising, some aren't.

It's hard to find players with shooting percentages higher then .150 ish career wise. Tanguay (.186) and Holmstrom (.166) are the only ones I have found so far.

Perhaps Hopkins is a freakishly high shooter, but I don't think he is abnormally selective in shooting the puck. I would be more surprised to see him end up higher then .150 then I would be to see him fall into the .140-.150 range.

I also expect his goal scoring to fall off a little as the season progresses, but he could ride lady luck all the way through the season. Stranger things have happened.

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12-11-2011, 05:47 AM
  #658
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Danny Briere and Mike Comrie are two more with high shooting percentages. When they had great years, they went to 18-21% so its not impossible to sustain it over a season which is not the same as a career percentage combining several different roles on different teams.

I'd guess that once they start overcompensating and trying to do more, they shoot more and their percentage goes down.

These high percentage guys seem to be PP goalscoring specialists as well which makes sense.

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Old
12-11-2011, 05:53 AM
  #659
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I watched a lot of RNH in the dub last year, and there were 2 things teams did to stop him.

One, they basically had double coverage on the guy 5 on 5, and that let guys like Froese have more open ice to work with 5 on 5.

Two, they would have to stay out of the box, because they couldn't pull the double coverage on RNH shorthanded...

Like others have mentioned, RNH didn't have that great of a supporting cast, and keep in mind the WHL is known to be a lot more defensive than other leagues such as the OHL.

Patrick Kane had Sam Gagner and Sergei Kostitsyn as his linemates in London. RNH had Froese and Kudrna(sp?).

I wish the kid played in the OHL, could you imagine him playing on a team like London or Kitchener (Landeskog on his wing)

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12-11-2011, 09:14 AM
  #660
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[I wish the kid played in the OHL, could you imagine him playing on a team like London or Kitchener (Landeskog on his wing) [/QUOTE]

I did the math last year both WHL and OHL were the same average per game in goals against and goals for. But WHL plays 4 extra games so when comparing players points you need to remember that. This year the WHL is averaging 3.40 GF a game and 3.41 GA a game while the OHL is higher so far this year at 3.47 GF and 3.48 GA. so this year it is easier to score in the OHL but it was not last year.

When looking at the points to make it the same in all leagues you have to take the total points divide by 72 then * by 68. So vey had 116 points so his total to compare to both OHL and Quebec would of been 109.5 while the leaguing scorer in the OHL had 108. so closer than 116 to 108.

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Old
12-11-2011, 09:23 AM
  #661
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The change in linemates will have an obvious impact. That's why scouts look for the guys who make their linemates "look better" in junior so once they reach the NHL, they have guys like Eberle and Hall to not only feed, but be fed.

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12-11-2011, 09:34 AM
  #662
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I have absolutely no knowledge of this particular case, but generally speaking: Some times it seems that it's easier to shut down a star player on junior level. You can actually have two guys covering the player, since the relative difference between him and his linemates is likely much bigger than in NHL. If you'd try that same thing on pro hockey, there would be a quality player uncovered and always ready to score. Good example of this would be when Canada shut down Ovechkin in World Juniors.

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12-11-2011, 12:07 PM
  #663
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Red Dear had nobody else with RNH last year. Teams could focus solely on him. With edmonton, he was playing with Hall and Eberle. teams have to be aware of all 3, and cant just focus on shutting the nuge down.

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Old
12-11-2011, 12:59 PM
  #664
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rick3652 View Post
He is not being feed by Hall. He is feeding all the players around him. A good players makes others better. Look at last night Gagner has not had a good year he moves to RNH line and plays Left wing gets two goals one assist. Both goals setup by RNH. I did not like Tavares in Junior and i do not like him now. He does not make players better playing with him. He needs players to help him get better. A good player will make everyone better. And i am not a fan of Edmonton as i believe they tried to lost last year to get first draft pick. They traded away players for nothing so they would lose games also they send players to the AHL so they could lose more games.
You might want to check Gagner's first one. Unassisted off a steal along the boards. And I'd say Gagner's game has been coming around for the last 2 weeks or so which has earned him time on the 1st line.

As far as purposely trying to lose, you might want to check our man games lost to injury the last 2yrs. Tambellini may not be much in the way of pro-active in terms of constantly trying to improve the team, but he hasn't given away players for free either (most would agree the Penner deal was a heist).

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Old
12-11-2011, 01:52 PM
  #665
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..how come Medicine Hat found it so easy to blank him in 4 staright games (no points at all) and then limit him to just 2A in the final game of their 5 game playoff series --for just 2assists in 5GP --yet here he is tearing up the NHL so easily ? HE had ONLY 31 goals in 69GP last year in the reg season of the supposedly much easier WHL JR. league-yet if you project to 69 NHL games he'd get 32 goals in the allrgdely far more difficult NHL? HOW is this possible? Yes his assists in 69 games last year in the WHL reg season was 75 and he projects to ONLY about 42 NHL assists extrapolated to 69 games -so at least that (still a pretty incredible total for any NHL rookie -and the seasonstill has to go to 82 GP) -but at least the decline in asists compared to his Jr. rate is EXPECTED ...but ceratinly NOT the goals rate-nor how easy it was for 12 Jr, team to basically shut him down...SO how do you explain all this? Everyone said he was fgood but not a "franchise" guy like Gretzky ,crosby,and certainly not a Stamkos as a goal scorere(his forte was supposed to be as a set-up guy)...SO HOW can he be scoring so many goals against "better" NHL-level goalies?

I'm confused-I do not understand-this was not supposed to be so easy to pile up this much finishing let alone points ..yet the facts are the facts...
I guess NHL guys have not been as physical on him as those guys from the HAT were last spring-the question is WHY NOT? They seem to have banged around Taylor Hall a lot more than RNH so far,and I thoght Hall was the better talent .so am i right? HAS the NHL opposition been too "soft" on RNH ? I had thought his weight would be a problem when the big bad NHL pros started banging him around-but so far they have apparently not laid a glove on him.the question is WHY NOT? I don't get it...
Fiddy, you are confused because you just look at stats. If you had watched RNH play in jr. there would be no confusion.
Watch a few games.

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Old
12-11-2011, 02:01 PM
  #666
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Maybe it was less pressure on him, I remember Stamkos, Tavares and Hall having pressure, and they didn't even put pressure on RNH all they did was say we'll give you a 9 game stint and no rush, Kane had no pressure on him either.

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12-11-2011, 02:14 PM
  #667
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Tavares needs a legit winger who can either

1) Skate hard
2) Grind hard
3) Has pure scoring aptitude
4) Complimentary playmaking skills (in which case JT has to improve his shot)

Otherwise he is going to be the next Nash.

PArt of why I think RHN is so successful this year to date is because he has #1/#3 in Hall, #2 in Smyth, #1/#4 in Eberle. JT has Moulson and Parenteau which are mediocre in all aspects from my observations.

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12-12-2011, 12:02 PM
  #668
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Originally Posted by leoleo3535 View Post
Fiddy, you are confused because you just look at stats. If you had watched RNH play in jr. there would be no confusion.
Watch a few games.
But the games I did see him in last year -he had some good games and some not so good games -but he certainly looked more set-up guy than sniper-goal scorer -I did not think he had a "great" shot (as per STAMKOS) and so combined with his lack of physical bulk -no way could I see him tHIS GOOD in his first NHL year--first standing up to the expected NHL pounding and second to the astonishing level of scoring goals
--true with Eberle and Hall he can work with 2 great talents -so that would be different than with Red Deer -but still facing so many good NHL goalies -especially in the Western Conference--the #of goals he has to date is astonishingly beyond expectation...ALL the experts--not just me,nor do I claim to be an expert-- stated that RNH was not as good a HALL or SEGUIN were in their draft years,was not a STAMKOS let allone a GRETZKY or CROSBY --yet NOW we get experts calling RNH already in the top 5 players in lhe league..so HOW does this surprising level of success from him happen? To say he has not over-delivered would be a lie...he has.

To say NHL teams cannot stop him by devising strategies to do it seems crazy - ok pick your poison --some posters say if they "double-team " RNH then other EDM players are too good not to score with more open time and space--perhaps true --BUT usually teams adjust to stop the MAIN THREAT of opponents -the "greats" (like Crosby still findways to beat such double-team stoppage attempts-but NOBODY said RNH was "francjise=great" -just another good top ptojected "star"--not projected "super-star" top5 in the league level!

WELL my other question was that it seemed when DUB clubs got physical on him --like THE HAT did in the playoffs -that stopped him--so WHY jave NHL clubs not done that to him? Hard to do that on the EDM PP"s ofcourse,BUT no excuse for not doing it on the ES situations...SO WHY NOT--YET? Perhaps they were more concerned about HALL who they always continue to bang around and they simply have not adjusted focus -YET-to the newbie on the block..it will shock me if they continue to play so dsft on RNH -just for their own chances for success against EDM --he nust be thrown off his game....TEAMS at at least try to hit Crosby-but he is much stronger and far edgier himself than RNH --so the only way they get Crosby out of the game is to actually concuss him -I'm not saying NHL teams will do that to this "kid" (RNH) -but at least they have to make it less easy on him or his finesseskills will continue their rampant success.


SO the 2nd half willbe interesting to see if NHL teams make any "adjustments" to limit RNH..

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12-12-2011, 12:07 PM
  #669
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I will freely admit I misjudged RNH and his skill level much like I misjudged Skinner and his skill level. Those guys are a lot better then I give them credit for. I also believe I am not the only one in this boat.

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12-12-2011, 09:11 PM
  #670
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Don't take this as an attack on your post. For the most part, I fully agree with the stuff I'm not quoting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawksfan50 View Post
the #of goals he has to date is astonishingly beyond expectation...
His rate of goal scoring will probably decline. His shot % is pretty high right now and will likely drop a decent amount by the end of the season.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawksfan50 View Post
ALL the experts--not just me,nor do I claim to be an expert-- stated that RNH was not as good a HALL or SEGUIN were in their draft years,was not a STAMKOS let allone a GRETZKY or CROSBY --yet NOW we get experts calling RNH already in the top 5 players in lhe league..so HOW does this surprising level of success from him happen? To say he has not over-delivered would be a lie...he has.
It's not that surprising to some.

6 out of 7 non-Oilers scouts that were polled picked RNH over Seguin (on offensive upside) before the draft.

HF would have you believe that RNH was a terrible 1st overall, but most professional scouts / people in hockey knew his potential.

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12-12-2011, 10:20 PM
  #671
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I think he'll probably finish out the season very similar to P. Kane. 65 - 70 points.

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12-12-2011, 10:22 PM
  #672
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I think he'll probably finish out the season very similar to P. Kane. 65 - 70 points.
Kane had 30 points in his first 30 games...only 7 goals though.

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12-12-2011, 10:29 PM
  #673
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Note to everyone: Scouting based on hockeydb.com is worthless. Take the word of the scouts who interpret the talent of the prospect. It's similar with Ryan Murray right now playing on a bad team. His stats aren't that great at this moment, but he has all the tools to be a great player. Don't look too much into statistics, when drafting you are basing it on future player growth, not past accomplishments or point totals. Oh man I would've loved to read the reaction of Rick Nash being picked 1st overall, despite having lackluster junior stats.

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12-13-2011, 08:06 AM
  #674
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But the games I did see him in last year -he had some good games and some not so good games -but he certainly looked more set-up guy than sniper-goal scorer -I did not think he had a "great" shot (as per STAMKOS) and so combined with his lack of physical bulk -no way could I see him tHIS GOOD in his first NHL year--first standing up to the expected NHL pounding and second to the astonishing level of scoring goals
--true with Eberle and Hall he can work with 2 great talents -so that would be different than with Red Deer -but still facing so many good NHL goalies -especially in the Western Conference--the #of goals he has to date is astonishingly beyond expectation...ALL the experts--not just me,nor do I claim to be an expert-- stated that RNH was not as good a HALL or SEGUIN were in their draft years,was not a STAMKOS let allone a GRETZKY or CROSBY --yet NOW we get experts calling RNH already in the top 5 players in lhe league..so HOW does this surprising level of success from him happen? To say he has not over-delivered would be a lie...he has.

To say NHL teams cannot stop him by devising strategies to do it seems crazy - ok pick your poison --some posters say if they "double-team " RNH then other EDM players are too good not to score with more open time and space--perhaps true --BUT usually teams adjust to stop the MAIN THREAT of opponents -the "greats" (like Crosby still findways to beat such double-team stoppage attempts-but NOBODY said RNH was "francjise=great" -just another good top ptojected "star"--not projected "super-star" top5 in the league level!

WELL my other question was that it seemed when DUB clubs got physical on him --like THE HAT did in the playoffs -that stopped him--so WHY jave NHL clubs not done that to him? Hard to do that on the EDM PP"s ofcourse,BUT no excuse for not doing it on the ES situations...SO WHY NOT--YET? Perhaps they were more concerned about HALL who they always continue to bang around and they simply have not adjusted focus -YET-to the newbie on the block..it will shock me if they continue to play so dsft on RNH -just for their own chances for success against EDM --he nust be thrown off his game....TEAMS at at least try to hit Crosby-but he is much stronger and far edgier himself than RNH --so the only way they get Crosby out of the game is to actually concuss him -I'm not saying NHL teams will do that to this "kid" (RNH) -but at least they have to make it less easy on him or his finesseskills will continue their rampant success.


SO the 2nd half willbe interesting to see if NHL teams make any "adjustments" to limit RNH..
Gretzky never had a great shot. RNH like Gretzky stands up to NHL punishment because you can't hit him. His success is in his ability to outthink most other players.

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