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Recent Bryzgalov thoughts...

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Old
12-14-2011, 07:35 AM
  #1
Reaper1097
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Recent Bryzgalov thoughts...

Bryz has played in 22 games, including 6 straight and in my opinion is playing very well. Not factoring in his contract at the moment, I think that he has been a big upgrade over previous goaltenders.

Currently he sits at 2.75 GAA & 90% save percentange which are still not that spectacular, however, if you remove the games when he was "lost in the woods" from October 12th thru October 27th (6 games) in which he gave up 25 goals on only 157 shots his numbers are a much more respectable 2.10 GAA & 93% save percentage.

A couple more games on his current pace then that GAA will dip below 2.00 which i believe is the thin line between the good and the elite goalies in the league. (I also look at save % being over 91% as a good indicator).

Anyway, I just want to know everyone elses thoughts on his play of late (and the season so far)...

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Old
12-14-2011, 08:01 AM
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ELab2
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The problem with that is how you're looking at his pace. His SV% in particular has been way up and down even through this streak, so even if is generally trending upwards it's a problem if he's still having really bad games.

I think he's a very very good goalie who is just going through a rough patch. Eventually he'll work his way out of it. Miller, Luongo, Brodeur, they all go through it.

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12-14-2011, 09:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
The problem with that is how you're looking at his pace. His SV% in particular has been way up and down even through this streak, so even if is generally trending upwards it's a problem if he's still having really bad games.

I think he's a very very good goalie who is just going through a rough patch. Eventually he'll work his way out of it. Miller, Luongo, Brodeur, they all go through it.
If Bryzgalov's rough patch is a 6 game winning streak, I'll take it!

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12-14-2011, 10:10 AM
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Bort Sampson
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I'd say rather than omitting those bad 6 games, you just wait 12 games and reassess his stats. It would probably be more telling.

Bryz and the defense are starting to settle down. He's making impressive saves look simple. That's great to see. I want to see Bob develop, but if it takes multiple consecutive starts to get Bryz going, that's what he's going to get.

A little off-topic here, but the change in team philosophy is completely noticeable at this point in the season. They just go out there and play. It's almost like they can sense imminent retreat from their opponents, and that makes them play much better. Bryz up a goal was great to see last night, because other than a few wonky deflections, he was in the zone. They didn't allow the Caps' D to change during a crazy forecheck-cycle possession in the offensive zone, and after getting fresh players on the ice, scored.

A question for the statisticians if they end up in the thread: is 21 games a large enough sample size for goaltenders?

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12-14-2011, 10:33 AM
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He needs to get better. Still sloppy. He is getting comfortable tough.

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12-14-2011, 10:38 AM
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I'm interested to see of he can continue this solid play while the team is having a bad night. So far he's really only done that once this season, and failed to do so several times. That's been one of my biggest knocks on him.

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12-14-2011, 10:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bort Sampson View Post
I'd say rather than omitting those bad 6 games, you just wait 12 games and reassess his stats. It would probably be more telling.

Bryz and the defense are starting to settle down. He's making impressive saves look simple. That's great to see. I want to see Bob develop, but if it takes multiple consecutive starts to get Bryz going, that's what he's going to get.

A little off-topic here, but the change in team philosophy is completely noticeable at this point in the season. They just go out there and play. It's almost like they can sense imminent retreat from their opponents, and that makes them play much better. Bryz up a goal was great to see last night, because other than a few wonky deflections, he was in the zone. They didn't allow the Caps' D to change during a crazy forecheck-cycle possession in the offensive zone, and after getting fresh players on the ice, scored.

A question for the statisticians if they end up in the thread: is 21 games a large enough sample size for goaltenders?

I'm not a statistician, but no. It's a very weak sample, and should only be used to draw very weak conclusions.

Even with 3,000 - 7,000 shots faced you run into some problems making any strident analysis of goaltenders on a purely statistical basis.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde..._goalie_skill/

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12-14-2011, 11:47 AM
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IMO stats for a goalie are never very telling. They don't play by themselves, the team functions as a whole...they try to channel shots, rebounds go to a certain place ect. When one guy doesn't do their job then the goalie gets hung out to dry. Bryz is a system goalie. He's not an "oh $&@#" goalie like thomas or MAF. Bryz will stop what he should stop, but his lack of athleticism shows when the play breaks down and he can't recover.

I think he's been the best goalie we've had in a long time...but our team d has to hold up their end of the bargain.

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12-14-2011, 12:11 PM
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To me, he's doing well enough right now, when combined with our offense, to win a lot of games. That's pretty much what you are looking for from now until April.

Once you're in the playoffs, I don't care who the best goalie in the league is, I want the goalie that's play the best for the next 20 or so games. You just hope that signing a guy like that gives you a better chance of him being that guy.

I expect Bryz's GAA to go down a decent amount. S% will be a lot harder principly because of how few shots we allow as a team.

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12-14-2011, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I'm interested to see of he can continue this solid play while the team is having a bad night. So far he's really only done that once this season, and failed to do so several times. That's been one of my biggest knocks on him.
I've been right there with you in the criticism of Bryz, but he has been a lot more consistent lately. He's passed the eye test a lot more in recent weeks than he did at the start of the season.

It remains to be seen if he sustains this level of play, but I'm a lot more confident in him now than I was 2 weeks ago.

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Old
12-14-2011, 01:49 PM
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I think he's looked very solid the last few weeks. Still has given up some really bad goals during this recent stretch though. Let's see if he can eliminate that and we'd have the guy we paid for.

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12-14-2011, 02:08 PM
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I was at the game last night, and Bryz was in the zone. Positionally sound, squared to the shooters, making difficult saves look routine, rebound control (except for one that he kicked out and probably should've been a goal for the Caps), net presence... it was all working for him. Of course, he had to blow his shutout by doing the Statue of Liberty move on a simple glove save, only to have the puck bounce out and right onto the stick of Jeff Halpern. Meh, whatever.

The biggest thing about last night's game, and perhaps I only noticed this because I was in the stands... but Bryz was able to clearly see what seemed like almost every shot. The Flyers were doing a superb job of boxing out the Caps and not letting them get to the front of the night (the Caps' overall listlessness certainly helped). More often than not, Bryz was one on one with the shooter and had a clear site line, which allowed him to make the saves easily. I remember that was a big problem at the beginning of the season and why he was struggling. Bryz even said as much. It seems like the defense is getting used to what he wants (well, needs), and we're starting to see the payoff.

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Old
12-14-2011, 02:36 PM
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His play from the beginning of the season has brought his stats down, but he has been playing great as of late.

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Old
12-14-2011, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
I've been right there with you in the criticism of Bryz, but he has been a lot more consistent lately. He's passed the eye test a lot more in recent weeks than he did at the start of the season.

It remains to be seen if he sustains this level of play, but I'm a lot more confident in him now than I was 2 weeks ago.
As am I.

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