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Old
12-16-2011, 12:33 AM
  #26
Kirk Muller
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Here's another view of the standings situation. The Habs started the season 1-5-2. They've pretty much played at a 100-point clip since.

(And frankly, I think they played better in their 1-5-2 stretch then they are doing now.)
but again, thats not reality. The fact is, that stretch did happened. You basically are ignoring it. Even if you put Montreal at this clip for the rest of the year, you have them at 93 points. A bubble team. You are just picking and choosing what supports your arguments. Much like "gomezitis." At what point is he just not a good player anymore in your opinion. 100 games without a goal? 200 without a goal? Or you just going to go back to his career stats

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12-16-2011, 12:34 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Kirk Muller View Post
When do the "stats" start to mean nothing? At the end of the day, the main stat is points and where you are in the standings.

Posters can bring up how they are better at five on five, how they dont allow that many shots, etc etc but at the end of the day if it doesn't translate to wins, they mean nothing. This isnt a video game where they input numbers and get a winner.
The thing is though, the team is moving its way up the standings. It just doesn't happen over night.

We put ourselves in a gigantic hole with that 1-5-2 start. 1 win in your first 8 games is not easy to recover from. However since that team we are slowly improving the record, by getting better each month.

I predict that by the end of January we'll be solidly in an playoff spot and remain there until the end of the year, and by the end of the year we'll challenge for 4th in the conference.

Falling down the standings can happen really quick. Rising up them, takes time, especially with all the 3 point games.

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12-16-2011, 12:34 AM
  #28
Kenny Powders
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
1 regulation loss in December.

A 4-3 loss to a team that has won 7 straight games and is in first place in conference.

One of our goals was disallowed for goalie interference, while on 2 of their goals, they had the same amount of contract (simmonds on price) and more contact (Rinaldo on Price) than Cole had on Bobrovsky.

Still, it was our first regulation loss in the month.

After starting 1-5-2 we are in the mix for a playoff spot.


And people are losing faith?

I don't think you get the point where freaking Mathieu Darche gets more Icetime on 5v5 than Paciorretty, AK46, Cole & others.

I don't think you get the point where freaking Hal Gill is on the ice with 5 minutes to go when we losing 4-3 ...

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12-16-2011, 12:37 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
I don't think you get the point where freaking Mathieu Darche gets more Icetime on 5v5 than Paciorretty, AK46, Cole & others.
Lots of special teams, and a weak fourth line Martin decided not to play much (justifiably given that Blunden was on it). That's all there is to it. People are blowing this entirely out of proportion.

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Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
I don't think you get the point where freaking Hal Gill is on the ice with 5 minutes to go when we losing 4-3 ...
You can't play with two defensive pairings with 5 minutes to go.

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Old
12-16-2011, 12:37 AM
  #30
Kirk Muller
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
The thing is though, the team is moving its way up the standings. It just doesn't happen over night.

We put ourselves in a gigantic hole with that 1-5-2 start. 1 win in your first 8 games is not easy to recover from. However since that team we are slowly improving the record, by getting better each month.

I predict that by the end of January we'll be solidly in an playoff spot and remain there until the end of the year, and by the end of the year we'll challenge for 4th in the conference.

Falling down the standings can happen really quick. Rising up them, takes time, especially with all the 3 point games.
and that may happen. It may not. Like i said tho, at some point all these favorable stats need to start equaling wins to mean anything in the standings.

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Old
12-16-2011, 12:38 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Maybe. But it's irrelevant to the quesiton of whether the team is dependent on goaltending. (The team's goaltending may be overly dependent on Price, but that's another matter. If so, maybe they should play Budaj more. Budaj hasn't been great but he hasn't embarassed himself either.)

I'm not trying to indict Price, here. I think he's been good. I don't think he's been lights-out all year and I don't think he's stolen a game. He's basically been consistent, no big highs, no big lows, which is a fine thing for a goalie to be.

But the Habs are not a team that are being kept alive by their goalie. They're a very strong defensive club. They've got a thoroughly awesome PK and one of the best 5-on-5 ratios in the league. And they're doing all this while missing key players every single game.

What's been killing them is their crappy PP production... the PP that's just scored in 3 games in a row (not coincidentally since the Kaberle trade).
A better powerplay would improve our prospects but the real core issues are an old story by now.

And Price is certainly not part of the issue.

It starts with our GM, our coach and the historically soft disposition and core of this team for what is turning out to be a long time now.

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12-16-2011, 12:38 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
I don't think you get the point where freaking Mathieu Darche gets more Icetime on 5v5 than Paciorretty, AK46, Cole & others.
We had 9 PPs.

Darche got 0 PP ice time.

Pacioretty got over 6 minutes of PP time.

Ask yourself this... how many of Mathieu Darche's 5v5 shifts came immediately after a penalty was killed? And Pacioretty, Cole, AK, Pleks, DD, and Cammy had just spent the last 2 minutes playing the PP and now were not available for even strength minutes?

Anytime you get a huge amount of PPs, the third liners get more ES minutes than the first liners, because the first liners use all their minutes on the PP.

Quote:
I don't think you get the point where freaking Hal Gill is on the ice with 5 minutes to go when we losing 4-3 ...
With 5 minutes to go, we were killing a penalty. Gotta kill that penalty and try to score in the last 3 minutes.... plus maybe gill blocks a shot on the puck, there is a loose puck and we can get a shorthanded break that way for Pleks or someone on the PK.

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Old
12-16-2011, 12:41 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Kirk Muller View Post
but again, thats not reality. The fact is, that stretch did happened. You basically are ignoring it. Even if you put Montreal at this clip for the rest of the year, you have them at 93 points.
A team that starts 1-5-2 but loses 4 games it dominates is more likely to make the playoffs than a team that starts 5-1-2 but has their goalie steal four of the games. If you want to get technical, a team's past record, especially in short stretches, is not nearly as predictive of future record as other things, like possession metrics and scoring chances.

Even if you don't want to get into that level of detail, one has to consider the reality in which the Habs operate: they have been the most injury-riddled team in the NHL by pretty much every method you'd care to count by. If you don't think they will ever get healthy, that's one thing, but the Habs have been heavily shorthanded since literally game 1.

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Old
12-16-2011, 12:42 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
A better powerplay would improve our prospects but the real core issues are an old story by now.
And what are those "real core issues"? Bad 5-on-5? Oh, look...

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
It starts with our GM, our coach and the historically soft disposition and core of this team for what is turning out to be a long time now.
There is nothing wrong with any of the above.

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Old
12-16-2011, 12:50 AM
  #35
Kirk Muller
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
A team that starts 1-5-2 but loses 4 games it dominates is more likely to make the playoffs than a team that starts 5-1-2 but has their goalie steal four of the games. If you want to get technical, a team's past record, especially in short stretches, is not nearly as predictive of future record as other things, like possession metrics and scoring chances.

Even if you don't want to get into that level of detail, one has to consider the reality in which the Habs operate: they have been the most injury-riddled team in the NHL by pretty much every method you'd care to count by. If you don't think they will ever get healthy, that's one thing, but the Habs have been heavily shorthanded since literally game 1.
there is a tonne of teams struggling with injuries. Do you have those stats? Many teams have been "shorthanded" this year.

again stats stats and more stats. At some point, stats go out the window in favor of wins and points in the standings. I am betting Montreal could be dead last right now, and you would try and bring up some stats that say they are better than their record indicates.

At some point, it has to start translating to wins to mean anything.

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12-16-2011, 12:55 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
There is nothing wrong with any of the above.
ha, right.

Softies like Gomez and Cammy excel under JM's system... oh wait.

It's a good thing we have hard to play against grinders that wear out the competition when we're up in the 3rd...oh wait.

Well, at least we lock-up are money on players that are healthy, reliable and productive. oh wait...

Size doesn't matter was always your quote... I guess that's why DD is progressing so nicely... oh wait.. he plays with 2 big wingers.

Our success is 50-50. For 1 good trade, we have 1 bad. For 1 good line, we have 1 bad. For 1 strength, there's 1 weakness.

At what point do you say, this team is average?

.

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Old
12-16-2011, 01:03 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Kirk Muller View Post
there is a tonne of teams struggling with injuries. Do you have those stats? Many teams have been "shorthanded" this year.
http://springingmalik.blogspot.com/2...-part-two.html

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Originally Posted by Kirk Muller View Post
At some point, it has to start translating to wins to mean anything.
It will. Heck it's already started. 100 point pace since game 8, remember. Montreal's working their way up the standings, but because they're essentially a salary floor team, it takes time.

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Old
12-16-2011, 01:15 AM
  #38
NotProkofievian
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I haven't lost faith, but I am very frustrated with a few members of our team. There was a time, even during the 09-10 season, in the darkest depths of that season, when I knew that if Pleky and Cammi had a two on 1, it was money.

Now if Cammi gets a break-away, I look away.

Some pretty key guys have been pretty terrible for us. Some other guys have been very good, though. David Desharnais has basically played Gomez off the team. The plays he's been making lately, Gomez has never made for us. Ever.

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12-16-2011, 01:18 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
http://springingmalik.blogspot.com/2...-part-two.html



It will. Heck it's already started. 100 point pace since game 8, remember. Montreal's working their way up the standings, but because they're essentially a salary floor team, it takes time.
The amount of man games lost to injury this team has is just staggering. We already have about as many man games lost as a team that you would consider to have had "injury problems" would have in a year. Absolutely ridiculous. I'm starting to question the training staff, as this has been a far too common theme to just be bad luck, at this point. The last 3 seasons have just been horrid.

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12-16-2011, 01:22 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
I haven't lost faith, but I am very frustrated with a few members of our team. There was a time, even during the 09-10 season, in the darkest depths of that season, when I knew that if Pleky and Cammi had a two on 1, it was money.

Now if Cammi gets a break-away, I look away.

Some pretty key guys have been pretty terrible for us. Some other guys have been very good, though. David Desharnais has basically played Gomez off the team. The plays he's been making lately, Gomez has never made for us. Ever.
This is basically how I feel.

Overall I like this team. Maybe it makes me a homer because I want to look at what's good with the Habs, but so be it. I don't see a hopeless team out there. For the most part we have a well rounded team that might lack high end offensive talent, but has some of the best depth in the league.

Management has made mistakes, but only one mistake I see holding us back. The "big three" of Gionta, Gomez, Cammalleri. Yeah Plekanec hasn't been playing great lately but he's still a constant factor at everything he does, and I don't see how anyone can complain about his contract.

But Gionta, Gomez and Cammalleri..the problem is, the only one of them who plays tough enough to make a difference even when he's off is Gionta. Him and Gomez are injured, Cammalleri might not be 100% but he's playing and he's a liability out there most nights. I'm not even sure if it's an effort thing, he's not the most intense player but he's picked it up lately and still has problems. I know all 3 have a history of being playoff performers, but right now they seem like relics living off the 2010 playoffs.

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Old
12-16-2011, 01:47 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Maybe you should do that. Price hasn't stolen a single game for the Habs. Yah, he's been good and consistent, no complaints there. I'm not saying he's been bad. He's been pretty good. But he's not the only reason the Habs are alive, not by a long shot.



Subban has been one of the better first-pairing D-men in the league. Because of a few highly-publicized errors that Price couldn't bail out, and because of his lack of scoring, "sophomore slump" has been the story for him. If you look at his entire body of work this season, though, that sophomore slump story is bullcrap. Subban and Gorges are basically keeping the team together.



The oh-so-porous, oh-so-unstructured Habs defense gives up the fifth-fewest shots per game in the entire league. At some point, that inconvenient fact has to be factored into your storyline.

Although the vibe I'm getting here is "you disagree with me therefore you must obviously be wrong". In which case, same to you.
Price has stole at least 3-4 games by his own to start first, not to mention the loser pt we got cause he kept us in the game.. Second, how many times did Martin mention bad defensive mistakes cost us goals? About every post game interviews, I mean its one thing to allow few numbers of shots per game, but when half of those shots are direct, clear scoring chances against, you are in trouble, especially when your own shot are weak and not dangerous..

Anyway you have to live on your own planet to not acknoledge the fact that Price saved our ass more than an elite goaltender should.. Not to mention he gives no soft goals anymore, you can count the number of softies he gave so far this year with one hand, if you want to see some softies, just watch the others teams goaltenders we face or some other NHL action..the prob is that Price has no rest at all, no margin for mistakes, just cant be average one night and hope to win the game, the team is just that fragile mentally.. It will eventually hurts alot cause you can feel some signs of frustration lately from Price, what is quite normal when the guys in front of you choke with regularity.. Your arguments dont hold the road, everyone watching the games are aware that Subban isnt having a good season, yeah he has been over used but he still have made plenty of bad mistakes this season, so the rest of our young kids, Weber, Emelin and Diaz have had their rough times, not talking about the 6"7 soft giant who is a permanent liability on the ice.. Saying that our blueline has been good since the begin of the season shows your lack of hockey knowledge, repetitive mistakes that Price repaired more than he should..

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Old
12-16-2011, 02:14 AM
  #42
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I'll never lose faith... We'll make the playoffs don't worry guys. Cole will finish the season with 35 goals while patches will be the top scorer with 70 Pts...

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Old
12-16-2011, 03:11 AM
  #43
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Seriously ? Price is the ONLY reason we are even close to being in the playoff hunt......No way you watch the games every night.
He admits to this, but I agree, Price has been ok, not the reason we're losing, but not the reason we're winning either. In fact, he's probably cost us a few more points than he's won. I know we love to give all the credit to the goalie, but 17th in SV% is about average.

The team was playing especially well during the first 7 or 8 games where their record reflected poorly, lately they are starting to be outplayed somewhat regularly. I find that quite concerning, but we'll see.

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12-16-2011, 04:46 AM
  #44
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Of course, its flawed, but what would have been your expectations, in September, if you were aware, somehow, of the fact that until Christmas :

-You're going to be 1st in man-games lost (and still 3rd (i think) without Markov. )
-The team, on the ice, salary-wise, was a cap floor team. At best.
-You are about to ice three rookies and two sophomores at D for several games, with two rookies being totally inexperienced with the hockey in NA.
-You're going to need your eleventh D on the depth chart.

They're still in decent shape, you cant ask for much more. They were actually surprisingly good at the beginning of the season, but the lack of success plus the overuse of some players is starting to be really problematic.
But asking for more, whereas they deserved to be at least 6th, thats just sad. It seems that some people are just unable to deal with the idea that there is some growing pains in the process with so many young players.


For the record :

vs Colorado : 20 scoring chances (against 13).
vs Buffalo : 18-6.
vs Toronto : 18-13
vs Florida : 13-7
vs Boston : 15-7
vs Vancouver : 19-12

That kind of gap in the number of scoring chances should not put you at the wrong end so often in such a short period. (And each one of them at home, which is even more curious)

Price did save us once, at Boston. And its debatable.
We have in fact nothing to say about his performance, he has been solid, he should not be blamed for our lack of positive results, but saying that Price is the only reason about why we're in that position is so wrong...

(But of course, i remember now : Our shooters are terrible, and the ones from the opposition are just robbed by Price.)

Like NotProkofievian, i really start to wonder if there is something wrong with the conditioning or something, because it cant be normal to have so many problems at the same time.

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Old
12-16-2011, 05:17 AM
  #45
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Jaques ****in Martin needs to GTFO and take ****in Darche with him he just lost the room and I dont blame the players because I would do exactly the same if I was playing for that moron, maybe he is a great human being but ffs hes the worst coach in the league, gets outcoached every night and I just cant take it anymore hes a loser coach with a loser mentality and will never take this team to the next level.

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Old
12-16-2011, 05:21 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Rutabaga View Post
Of course, its flawed, but what would have been your expectations, in September, if you were aware, somehow, of the fact that until Christmas :

-You're going to be 1st in man-games lost (and still 3rd (i think) without Markov. )
-The team, on the ice, salary-wise, was a cap floor team. At best.
-You are about to ice three rookies and two sophomores at D for several games, with two rookies being totally inexperienced with the hockey in NA.
-You're going to need your eleventh D on the depth chart.

They're still in decent shape, you cant ask for much more. They were actually surprisingly good at the beginning of the season, but the lack of success plus the overuse of some players is starting to be really problematic.
But asking for more, whereas they deserved to be at least 6th, thats just sad. It seems that some people are just unable to deal with the idea that there is some growing pains in the process with so many young players.


For the record :

vs Colorado : 20 scoring chances (against 13).
vs Buffalo : 18-6.
vs Toronto : 18-13
vs Florida : 13-7
vs Boston : 15-7
vs Vancouver : 19-12

That kind of gap in the number of scoring chances should not put you at the wrong end so often in such a short period. (And each one of them at home, which is even more curious)

Price did save us once, at Boston. And its debatable.
We have in fact nothing to say about his performance, he has been solid, he should not be blamed for our lack of positive results, but saying that Price is the only reason about why we're in that position is so wrong...

(But of course, i remember now : Our shooters are terrible, and the ones from the opposition are just robbed by Price.)

Like NotProkofievian, i really start to wonder if there is something wrong with the conditioning or something, because it cant be normal to have so many problems at the same time.
It seems this cap floor team hoopla is another smoke screen to avoid the issues, if you had a said Markov would be injured during the first half of the season, I would of said, no kidding. You can't really count his money as missing as it was at least partially expected. Then another 7.3m comes from a guy who hasn't scored in 50games, I don't think missing him has hurt all that much, in fact it may have been a blessing in disguise.

13 million accounted for that should have been reasonably assumed to not have much impact, if any at all. I'm not really buying this argument, sounds devastating, but it's really just a play on words in order to create special effects in attempt to make the situation seem more dire than it is.

That 13 million was gone before the year started. Most already knew that. I don't mind the Markov signing, but I said at the time, if he doesn't play, it's no longer a valid excuse, you assume the risk, you deal with the consequences.

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12-16-2011, 05:55 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
It seems this cap floor team hoopla is another smoke screen to avoid the issues, if you had a said Markov would be injured during the first half of the season, I would of said, no kidding. You can't really count his money as missing as it was at least partially expected. Then another 7.3m comes from a guy who hasn't scored in 50games, I don't think missing him has hurt all that much, in fact it may have been a blessing in disguise.

13 million accounted for that should have been reasonably assumed to not have much impact, if any at all. I'm not really buying this argument, sounds devastating, but it's really just a play on words in order to create special effects in attempt to make the situation seem more dire than it is.

That 13 million was gone before the year started. Most already knew that. I don't mind the Markov signing, but I said at the time, if he doesn't play, it's no longer a valid excuse, you assume the risk, you deal with the consequences.
last few posts show you dont believe any argument, wich isnt surprising much considering you simply dont want to.

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12-16-2011, 05:59 AM
  #48
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The Total man-game lost stats is clear. Yet, you signed a Markov (and I'll repeat, I agreed with that signing) knowing that you are signing a risk. You probably didn't expect those setbacks, but there was so much talk about that contract that everybody knew it could boom or bust. So you accepted it. Gomez is another. The guy everybody wants to get rid of as soon as possible. Now, he is still an NHL'er but at one point, I'd love to concentrate on the importance of the player instead of the numbers of games lost from whoever. Surely Ryan White's number are in there too. Needless to say, he'd be an asset. But to a point that he'd be the difference between a win or a loss? Maybe, but clearly not as bad as Markov. Philly just lost Giroux and Pronger. We are going to see the effect on them soon I guess. But Philly losing Giroux and Pronger are way more important than a Markov-Gomez duo....Not only Giroux was a top 5 player in the league. But we're kinda used to play without Markov while Flyers never seems to be able to do that with Pronger. So again, another stat to indeed consider. But to simply accept a situation solely based on that, is pushing it. Though something needs to be taken care of 'cause it seems it repeats itself year after year. And the Habs DID fire their fitness guys at some point.

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12-16-2011, 06:05 AM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
The Total man-game lost stats is clear. Yet, you signed a Markov (and I'll repeat, I agreed with that signing) knowing that you are signing a risk. You probably didn't expect those setbacks, but there was so much talk about that contract that everybody knew it could boom or bust. So you accepted it. Gomez is another. The guy everybody wants to get rid of as soon as possible. Now, he is still an NHL'er but at one point, I'd love to concentrate on the importance of the player instead of the numbers of games lost from whoever. Surely Ryan White's number are in there too. Needless to say, he'd be an asset. But to a point that he'd be the difference between a win or a loss? Maybe, but clearly not as bad as Markov. Philly just lost Giroux and Pronger. We are going to see the effect on them soon I guess. But Philly losing Giroux and Pronger are way more important than a Markov-Gomez duo....Not only Giroux was a top 5 player in the league. But we're kinda used to play without Markov while Flyers never seems to be able to do that with Pronger. So again, another stat to indeed consider. But to simply accept a situation solely based on that, is pushing it. Though something needs to be taken care of 'cause it seems it repeats itself year after year. And the Habs DID fire their fitness guys at some point.
wich makes it odd, they change fitness staff, coaches two season ago, replaced player by others who were known to be durable... and yet... year after year...

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12-16-2011, 06:21 AM
  #50
Monctonscout
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewHabsEra View Post
Simple question after about 2 months and half of mediocre hockey relying every ****ing games on our goaltender to get pts.. There is no sign of improvement, the guys dont seem to push in the same direction, they dont support each others, there is no structure in front of Carey Price let to many times alone..

I know about 99.9% of the fans want Martin out but do you really think it will solve all our probs? Ive been saying it for a while and will say it again, ending the season out of the series, finishing something like 9-10-11th would be a major setback for this franchise, not only you cant danse with the other teams for a chance to win the Cup but the chances to draft an elite talent are pretty slim as well.. I think its a crucial time for the future of this team, something has to happen, either you find a way to redress the situation or you drop the king for the next 3-4 years starting a real rebuilt keeping your young core players, signing them long term and trading your older assets..

But I will come back to the original question.. Have you lost faith in this team to make the playoffs or doing anything positive if ever we clinch by the backdoor?
How have they been "playing mediocre all year"?

They started out like crap but since then have been steadily climbing but it's tough with 5-6 guys out all the time. It's not just Markov, it is not having that 3rd scoring line because Gio, Gomez, Moen, White are all out.

Before last night they got 29 points the prior 22 games(108 point pace). They should have had AT LEAST a point last night if not two with those 2 ******** goal calls.

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