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Old
12-19-2011, 05:48 PM
  #176
arsmaster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
i tough 5 years is a good sample and the recent years reflect more the new drafting tendency than past years.

But your point to include 2005-2006 as well is valable

Just wait and see the next years draft......

But now you can take a look at the pre-lockout years....9 goalies taken in the top 10 in 8 years. vs just 1 in 7 years post lockout (Price) do you explain that only by the quality of the goalie avaible to be drafted? or by the market value of goalie?

2004: Montoya 6th Dubnyk 14th, Schwarz 17th, Schneider 26th
2003: Fleury 1st,
2002: Lethonen 2st, ward 25th Toivenen 29th
2001: Leclaire 8th, Blackburn 10th Bacashishua 26th, Munro 29th
2000: Diepietro 1st, Krahn 9th,
1999: Finley 6th, ouellet 22th, Ahonen 27th
1998: Desrochers 14th, Chouinard 15
1997: Luongo 4th, Noronen 21th, Damphousse 24th
Like I said above, I dont think you can call anything a tendency right now. Especially when the quality of goalie taken from drafts in the last 5 years would usually take more time to come up with an assessment.

There is definitely merrit to a quality vs market value argument.

The funny thing about those numbers you posted is there was probably a 10% deviation between goalies taken in the 1st round pre-lockout to post lockout.

2005: Price 5th, Rask 21st
2006: Bernier 11th, Helenius 15th, Varlamov 23rd, and Irving 26th
2007: No goalies. Note no goalies taken after round 1 have done anything in the NHL or minors. A weak goalie year.
2008ickard 18th, Mccollum 30th...Markstrom taken 31st
2009:None. goalie taken 31st.
2010: Campbell 11th, Visentin 27th
2011: No goalies.


If you disregard the 2007 season, post lockout drafts have 1.67 goalies taken in the first round. Pre-lockout (the years you posted) it is 2.75. Factor in the 2 goalies taken with the 31st pick (a lottery team...basically another 1st), there have been 2 goalies taken in the first 31 picks since the lockout.

Hardly a tendency change.

The numbers of goalies taken in round 1 has dropped, it is evident but when there are highly touted goalies post lockout (Campbell, Bernier, Price.) teams will draft them early.

Such was the case with the highly touted goalies taken with high picks pre-lockout (Fleury, Lehtonen, Luongo, Dipietro).

If you are viewed as an elite talent you will be taken in the 1st round (or close to it), because teams still need goalies.

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Old
12-19-2011, 07:37 PM
  #177
palindrom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Like I said above, I dont think you can call anything a tendency right now. Especially when the quality of goalie taken from drafts in the last 5 years would usually take more time to come up with an assessment.

There is definitely merrit to a quality vs market value argument.

The funny thing about those numbers you posted is there was probably a 10% deviation between goalies taken in the 1st round pre-lockout to post lockout.

2005: Price 5th, Rask 21st
2006: Bernier 11th, Helenius 15th, Varlamov 23rd, and Irving 26th
2007: No goalies. Note no goalies taken after round 1 have done anything in the NHL or minors. A weak goalie year.
2008ickard 18th, Mccollum 30th...Markstrom taken 31st
2009:None. goalie taken 31st.
2010: Campbell 11th, Visentin 27th
2011: No goalies.


If you disregard the 2007 season, post lockout drafts have 1.67 goalies taken in the first round. Pre-lockout (the years you posted) it is 2.75. Factor in the 2 goalies taken with the 31st pick (a lottery team...basically another 1st), there have been 2 goalies taken in the first 31 picks since the lockout.

Hardly a tendency change.

The numbers of goalies taken in round 1 has dropped, it is evident but when there are highly touted goalies post lockout (Campbell, Bernier, Price.) teams will draft them early.

Such was the case with the highly touted goalies taken with high picks pre-lockout (Fleury, Lehtonen, Luongo, Dipietro).

If you are viewed as an elite talent you will be taken in the 1st round (or close to it), because teams still need goalies.
I really dont see why we should exclude the year 2007 its early to judge. There was still 4 goalie taken in the 2nd round. in 1998-1999 5 goalie was drafted in the 1st round, none of them had an NHL career. Its not statistically valid to make average stats if you take out the exception.

so here is the stats.

7 years Post lockout:

0.14 goalies taken in the top 10 per years
0.57 in the top 15
1.42 in the first round.

8 years before the lockout:

1.125 goalies taken in the top 10 per year.
1.333 in the top 15
2.44 in the 1st round

And the last 5 years:

0 in the top 10
0.20 in the top 15
0.8 in the first round.


I dont see how you cant see any tendency change. The number are obvious and the sample of years is large enough.

Of course elite goalie like Bernier and Campbell are still drafted, but they dont make the top 10 (or top 5) anymore.

As i say..wait and let see the next year


Last edited by palindrom: 12-19-2011 at 07:46 PM.
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Old
12-19-2011, 11:17 PM
  #178
JayOnrait18
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No way Leafs offer this and Van may actually look for more for Schneider

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