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Old
12-16-2011, 12:54 PM
  #26
David Singleton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
I'm quite sure that Poile and the owners have made a decision on what they'd like to do with Suter and Weber. The issue is now how to finance and structure the deal in a way that the players accept. I'd be shocked if the deals weren't pretty heavily front loaded with signing bonuses paid over the first few years.
True.

I meant a decision regarding if or when to go a different direction and the long term effects that would result.

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12-16-2011, 01:12 PM
  #27
triggrman
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That stat with the defensemen doesn't shock me much considering; how much Weber and Suter play and how all the other defensemen have rotated in and out of the line-up

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12-16-2011, 01:21 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Singleton View Post
True.

I meant a decision regarding if or when to go a different direction and the long term effects that would result.
After the season unless we're out of contention. The team loses too much if either is shipped out at the deadline.

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12-16-2011, 01:49 PM
  #29
David Singleton
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
After the season unless we're out of contention. The team loses too much if either is shipped out at the deadline.
I tend to agree. Deadline trades generally don't return a lot. I tend to feel that draft-day trades return better if it comes to that- but I haven't verified those feelings.

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Old
12-19-2011, 02:41 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
This is why I choose to be more of a finesse type defenseman and stay away from the physical play in front of the net.. Somehow though, I keep ending up in the box, the refs always call the wrong number I guess.
LoL

Are those physical play penalties or penalties due to laziness?

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12-19-2011, 04:10 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by utmfisher19 View Post
LoL

Are those physical play penalties or penalties due to laziness?
has to be something. I'm an angel o. the ice.

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Old
12-19-2011, 10:12 PM
  #32
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i model my finesse game after jj

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Old
12-20-2011, 08:36 AM
  #33
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This team needs Ron Hainsey.

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Old
12-20-2011, 09:49 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by BroFist View Post
This team needs Ron Hainsey.
he is one i've thought about, as well as johnny oduya.

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Old
12-20-2011, 09:49 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by kypredsfan View Post
I'd take Franson back if he'd learn to use that 6'4" frame to use.
Leafs fan here, not a fan of Franson at all but he has learned to use his body. He has thrown some decent open ice-hits and is learning to be physical so he has improved.
His real problem is losing his positioning on occasion.

OT: Have you ever seen someone who can release his slapshot as accurately and quickly as him?

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Old
12-20-2011, 09:54 AM
  #36
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Interesting stat that someone told me the other night. In the olden days, teams shooting the puck more than the other team won 80% of the games. In todays game, teams that shoot the puck more than the opponent win 20% of the games. Take that for what it's worth.

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Old
12-20-2011, 10:24 AM
  #37
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i'm not sure about that stat, but I imagine if it's true or close to true. It's because of teams pushing hard and unleashing a flurry of shots when they're trailing.

In the past, teams may have just kept piling on, as scoring IS the object of the game. Now when a team has a lead they are more likely to sit on it and focus on defending their net.

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Old
12-20-2011, 10:49 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legionnaire11 View Post
i'm not sure about that stat, but I imagine if it's true or close to true. It's because of teams pushing hard and unleashing a flurry of shots when they're trailing.

In the past, teams may have just kept piling on, as scoring IS the object of the game. Now when a team has a lead they are more likely to sit on it and focus on defending their net.
So many things to consider really. Speed of the game is faster now. Equipment is better. Goalies are more agile with lighter equipment. Talent pool is deeper with all the Euro and Russian talent. Curve of the stick. Style of the game changed when Orr made it clear that defensemen were an offensive threat. Video study. The other thing is, when it was only 6 teams, the talent on each team was pretty impressive but because of the game and the equipment, the game relied on more shots to try to get it past the goalie. Think about the fact of the goalie mask being invented. You had to take more shots to win because the speed of the puck wasn't as fast as it is now. What happens today is the quality chance is more important than the quantity of chances.

How many times do we watch games where a team outplays the other team to a tie in the first only to see the other team score at the end of the first and go up 1-0? I do agree with the point you made about a team firing more shots on net when down but what about us the other night? We were even and fired half as many shots as St. Louis did. Were we really outplayed or did we play a good defensive game keeping the Blues away from Rinne and limiting good scoring chances?

We usually get outshot but we somehow win more games. Quality of chances against us isn't usually very good. We're good at keeping teams to the outside and shooting from bad angles and from the point. If Rinne can see it, he's usually going to stop it.

Not sure that I totally believe that stat either but it would be interesting to look into for sure.

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Old
12-20-2011, 12:11 PM
  #39
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I agree that stat can't be right... I would say 60\40 teams who shoot more win... but I mean look at us, were outshot every game it seems and find a way into the playoffs....

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Old
12-20-2011, 12:18 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
I agree that stat can't be right... I would say 60\40 teams who shoot more win... but I mean look at us, were outshot every game it seems and find a way into the playoffs....
A friend of mine told me the stat the other night. He was listening to hockey night in Canada on the radio and that's what he said they said. It would be interesting to see just on the Preds if that holds true or not.

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Old
12-20-2011, 12:26 PM
  #41
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Quick tally. 21 wins last year we were outshot.

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Old
12-20-2011, 12:59 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
A friend of mine told me the stat the other night. He was listening to hockey night in Canada on the radio and that's what he said they said. It would be interesting to see just on the Preds if that holds true or not.
I would say pretty close.. if we out shoot our opponent we always seem to win. I would guess as far as being outshot, we win 55% of the time . I'm going to look this up tonight when I'm off. if someone doesn't beat me to it.

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Old
12-20-2011, 02:52 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Singleton View Post
Interesting, but given the various line combinations to this point, I'm not sure what to take from that.

However, here is a pretty interesting overview compiled by me with data from DobberHockey (and about to be featured in my next blog):

There have been 163 points (goals and assists) scored by a Predator forward in all situations this year.

Here the total points scored while a given forward has been on the ice:
  1. Craig Smith, 74pts (45% of 163)
  2. Colin Wilson, 74pts (45%)
  3. David Legwand, 63pts (39%)
  4. Martin Erat, 47pts (29%)
  5. Mike Fisher, 43pts (26%)
  6. Patric Hornqvist, 38pts (23%)
  7. Sergei Kostitsyn, 37pts (23%)
  8. Jordin Tootoo, 33pts (20%)
  9. Nick Spaling, 26pts (16%)
  10. Matt Halischuck, 23pts (14%)
  11. Jerred Smithson, 14pts (9%)
Notice how the list above lines up almost precisely with the PP TOI table below.

RkPlayerTeamPosGPES TOIES TOI/GSH TOISH TOI/GPP TOIPP TOI/GTOITOI/GShiftsTOI/SSft/G
1Colin WilsonNSHC32454:0014:110:260:0085:332:40539:5916:5268148.021.3
2Patric HornqvistNSHR31399:5312:530:240:0080:582:36481:1515:3161647.019.9
3Craig SmithNSHC32434:5913:351:320:0278:562:28515:2716:0669245.021.6
4David LegwandNSHC28405:1014:2855:041:5864:572:19525:1118:4570645.025.2
5Martin EratNSHR24361:5615:0431:321:1853:532:14447:2118:3861044.025.4
6Mike FisherNSHC24385:1916:0331:011:1748:592:02465:1919:2359747.024.9
7Sergei KostitsynNSHL26360:5113:5212:500:2946:251:47420:0616:0959343.022.8
8Jordin TootooNSHR30394:0913:083:440:078:170:16406:1013:3255744.018.6
9Blake GeoffrionNSHL19169:008:5321:551:096:440:21197:3910:2430439.016.0
10Niclas BergforsNSHR1182:117:280:000:006:370:3688:488:0413938.012.6
11Nick SpalingNSHL27364:3113:3056:202:056:090:13427:0015:4862341.023.1
12Matt HalischukNSHR32338:2810:3453:081:394:380:08396:1412:2259740.018.7
13Jerred SmithsonNSHC32333:5510:2676:152:222:470:05412:5712:5464638.020.2
14Brian McGrattanNSHR21116:445:330:000:000:250:01117:095:3416543.07.9
15Kyle WilsonNSHC539:487:570:550:110:000:0040:438:086140.012.2
16Chris MuellerNSHC218:549:270:530:260:000:0019:479:533040.015.0
17Zack StortiniNSHR14:534:530:000:000:000:004:534:531127.011.0
18Ryan ThangNSHL17:357:350:570:570:000:008:328:321243.012.0

The lone anomaly is Hornqvist. What's up with him? If Legwand isn't the permanent answer as Hornqvist's potential replacement, then Poile may look to the trade market to re-enforce that 3rd forward position on the PP.

Quote:
Same stat for defensemen:
  1. Shea Weber, 48pts (72%)
  2. Ryan Suter, 44pts (66%)
  3. Jonathon Blum, 10pts (15%)
  4. Kevin Klein, 9pts (13%)
  5. Jack Hillen, 8pts (12%)
  6. Francis Bouillon, 8pts (12%)
  7. Roman Josi, 5pts (7%)
  8. Teemu Laakso, 2pts (3%)


...Given the dependence this team has on Suter and Weber, if one of the two leave it will usher a complete change of the team's identity (assuming another elite defenseman isn't coming back)...Definite pressure building on David Poile to make a long term decision regarding Suter and Weber. The impact on losing either will be huge.
If Suter insists on not re-signing in NSH, and is being targeted by PHI, then a returning package that might make some sense is a top four d-man (likely non-elite but signed longterm) and a young offensive forward (who is or will be more productive than Hornqvist on the 1PP).

Retaining Weber would allow Trotz to keep in intact the big-point-shot PP strategy. However, Weber will need to get accustomed to whomever his new setup-man on the point with him will be -- likely Jon Blum.

Rk PlayerTeam Pos GP ES TOI ES TOI/G SH TOI SH TOI/GPP TOI PP TOI/G TOI TOI/G Shifts TOI/S Sft/G
1Ryan SuterNSHD32643:1620:0687:322:44128:084:00858:5626:5095254.029.8
2Shea WeberNSHD32628:4619:3883:442:37125:333:55838:0326:1195952.030.0
3Jonathon BlumNSHD27400:5914:5148:041:4635:551:19484:5817:5764445.023.9
4Kevin KleinNSHD30524:3317:2979:362:3915:170:30619:2620:3879947.026.6
5Francis BouillonNSHD20343:0717:0933:521:418:210:25385:2019:1650846.025.4
6Roman JosiNSHD11142:4812:582:090:117:160:39152:1313:5020844.018.9
7Jack HillenNSHD30390:2913:0023:590:471:120:02415:4013:5156344.018.8
8Mattias EkholmNSHD223:1211:360:310:151:070:3324:5012:253740.018.5
9Teemu LaaksoNSHD998:4310:585:130:340:220:02104:1811:3516438.018.2

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Last edited by JawandaPuck: 12-20-2011 at 02:58 PM.
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Old
01-02-2012, 09:47 AM
  #44
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I was looking at our stats this morning and I noticed that Tootoo has just tied his career high for points at 18 in 37 games. He is tied with SK even after that hat trick last night. Also, Matt Halischuk is tied for second in goals scored with 9. The question is, do we even have a top and bottom six? Or just a middle twelve?

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01-02-2012, 10:47 AM
  #45
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I was looking at our stats this morning and I noticed that Tootoo has just tied his career high for points at 18 in 37 games. He is tied with SK even after that hat trick last night. Also, Matt Halischuk is tied for second in goals scored with 9. The question is, do we even have a top and bottom six? Or just a middle twelve?
I would say a top 9 with a not so far behind fourth line lol....

for a large part of the season, tootoo has been a top 3 forward on the team bringing the same tenacity game in game out..producing near a point per game. and he never gets PP time like fisher, erat, hornqvist, etc..

needless to say, we are definitely an offense by committee.. which isn't a bad thing

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01-02-2012, 10:49 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by smashville View Post
I was looking at our stats this morning and I noticed that Tootoo has just tied his career high for points at 18 in 37 games. He is tied with SK even after that hat trick last night. Also, Matt Halischuk is tied for second in goals scored with 9. The question is, do we even have a top and bottom six? Or just a middle twelve?
We have a top six but we don't align our forwards in a traditional top six. We deliberately go for three balanced "scoring" lines which creates match up hell for opposing defenses. Compare that to say, Florida, who has all of their forward scoring concentrated in one line (3 fwds with 30+ pts, then a drop to 15 pts for 4th). We could do something similar by moving a healthy Wilson to the Fisher or Legwand line and shuffling a few bodies around to make our 3rd line more of a traditional checking type line.

On paper, our lines don't make a lot of sense at first look ... but they're working.

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01-02-2012, 11:33 AM
  #47
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I also noticed that Tootoo leads all forwards on the team with a +3. I find it troubling that Martin Erat is the only "top six" forward that is a + for the season so far. If we could only play a little better defensively 5 on 5 we would be in pretty decent shape. I believe that Josi and a healthy Weber will help a little with that.

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Old
01-02-2012, 12:17 PM
  #48
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Last night Tootoo set a career high for multi-point games in a single season with 5 and also tied his career high in assists with 12. We still have 43 games to go...

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Old
01-12-2012, 10:27 AM
  #49
utmfisher19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
This is why I choose to be more of a finesse type defenseman and stay away from the physical play in front of the net.. Somehow though, I keep ending up in the box, the refs always call the wrong number I guess.
You thug...

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Old
01-19-2012, 12:11 PM
  #50
utmfisher19
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Speaking of stats, I've been wanting to ask this question and am just now getting around to it:

What do you guys think of ESPN's stat "production"?

Quote:
Production value: the average ice time per point recorded.
For example, if a player is on the ice for 20 minutes and registers two points, his production value is 10:00.
Obviously it has it's short-comings based on if you play on the PP/PK or if you play on the 3rd/4th line with less skilled players. But overall, I wonder why this stat doesn't get used as much as +/-, etc.

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