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Leafs offense: Bang for the buck

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12-25-2011, 12:29 AM
  #1
42to81
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Leafs offense: Bang for the buck

I basically just made this for fun because I was wondering who on the leafs top 6 roster held the best bang for their buck right now based on JUST point production. I originally suspected it was going to be Bozak.

The purpose of this formula is not to judge if a player is worth their contract because i'm quite aware their are other valuable assets besides point production. I am just comparing this one individual statistic, nothing else; how much a player is making per point they put up. I included bottom 6 guys too here, but I obviously look at those numbers with a grain of salt.

This could be an effective way to build a loaded top 6. the money value to the right of each players name is how much they are earning per point.

There are definitely some good bargains in this lineup right now that Burke could build around to further bolster the lineup. It also appears to show who our offensive slumpers are too based on how much they make.

I thought maybe this could stimulate some interesting discussion.

$/PTS:
[BASED ON PROJECTED POINTS VS GAMES
((CAP HIT / 82 GAMES) * PROJECTED GAMES PLAYED) / PROJECTED POINTS FOR SEASON



JOEY CRABB: $20,948.07/ 31 PTS

TYLER BOZAK: $25,353.02/ 57 PTS

NAZEM KADRI: $36,357.72/ 30 PTS

JOFFREY LUPUL: $48,295.45/ 88 PTS

PHIL KESSEL: $56,842.11/ 95 PTS

MIKE BROWN: $57,495.96/ 10 PTS

MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI: $66,310.98/ 40 PTS

MATT FRATTIN: $69,579.95/ 18 PTS

CLARKE MACARTHUR: $70,775.26/ 42 PTS

DAVID STECKEL: $75,696.86/ 14 PTS

NIKOLAI KULEMIN: $78,333.33/ 30 PTS

TIM CONNOLLY: $78,371.59/ 51 PTS


Last edited by 42to81: 12-25-2011 at 12:36 AM.
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Old
12-25-2011, 12:55 AM
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Leaf4Life
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 42to81 View Post
I basically just made this for fun because I was wondering who on the leafs top 6 roster held the best bang for their buck right now based on JUST point production. I originally suspected it was going to be Bozak.

The purpose of this formula is not to judge if a player is worth their contract because i'm quite aware their are other valuable assets besides point production. I am just comparing this one individual statistic, nothing else; how much a player is making per point they put up. I included bottom 6 guys too here, but I obviously look at those numbers with a grain of salt.

This could be an effective way to build a loaded top 6. the money value to the right of each players name is how much they are earning per point.

There are definitely some good bargains in this lineup right now that Burke could build around to further bolster the lineup. It also appears to show who our offensive slumpers are too based on how much they make.

I thought maybe this could stimulate some interesting discussion.

$/PTS:
[BASED ON PROJECTED POINTS VS GAMES
((CAP HIT / 82 GAMES) * PROJECTED GAMES PLAYED) / PROJECTED POINTS FOR SEASON



JOEY CRABB: $20,948.07/ 31 PTS

TYLER BOZAK: $25,353.02/ 57 PTS

NAZEM KADRI: $36,357.72/ 30 PTS

JOFFREY LUPUL: $48,295.45/ 88 PTS

PHIL KESSEL: $56,842.11/ 95 PTS

MIKE BROWN: $57,495.96/ 10 PTS

MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI: $66,310.98/ 40 PTS

MATT FRATTIN: $69,579.95/ 18 PTS

CLARKE MACARTHUR: $70,775.26/ 42 PTS

DAVID STECKEL: $75,696.86/ 14 PTS

NIKOLAI KULEMIN: $78,333.33/ 30 PTS

TIM CONNOLLY: $78,371.59/ 51 PTS

So how does Frattin have a higher $ value than Kessel? I don't get the math...

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12-25-2011, 01:12 AM
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12-25-2011, 01:23 AM
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Nikolai Coolman
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I don't think the relation between production and value can be linear. 8 players producing 10 points each at $0.5 million will get you 80 points for $4 million. A forward who gets 80 points on his own will definitely command more than $4 million, because it's about concentrating the talent.

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12-25-2011, 02:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf4Life View Post
So how does Frattin have a higher $ value than Kessel? I don't get the math...
Cap hit per game times games per point = cap hit per point. ($/GM)*(GM/PT) = $/PT.

Kessel has a $5.4M cap hit with 41 points in 35 games: (5400000/82)*(35/41) = $54.2K/PT

Frattin has a $1.3M cap hit with 8 points in 32 games: (1300000/82)*(32/8) = $63.4K/PT (I think the OP assumed Frattin had played all 35 games)

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12-25-2011, 02:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikolai Coolman View Post
I don't think the relation between production and value can be linear. 8 players producing 10 points each at $0.5 million will get you 80 points for $4 million. A forward who gets 80 points on his own will definitely command more than $4 million, because it's about concentrating the talent.
It's not a good comparison for a lot of reasons, but it can be useful for comparing players of similar cailber or role to determine who can do the best job for the cheapest cost (ie. Bozak vs. Grabovski vs. Connolly).

Though this is only good for pure point production. It doesn't take into account defensive play, physicality, leadership qualities, or even a goal scorer vs. a playmaker.

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12-25-2011, 04:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by My Sweet Shadow View Post
It's not a good comparison for a lot of reasons, but it can be useful for comparing players of similar cailber or role to determine who can do the best job for the cheapest cost (ie. Bozak vs. Grabovski vs. Connolly).

Though this is only good for pure point production. It doesn't take into account defensive play, physicality, leadership qualities, or even a goal scorer vs. a playmaker.

So, it's not really an adequate way to compare players at all.

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12-25-2011, 07:58 AM
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You forgot Dupuis.

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12-25-2011, 10:23 AM
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The data is not meant to be super informative, I clearly stated above that there are other variables it doesn't take into account, but it is still informative to some degree. And um, it's relevant data for play makers because play makers get assists which you sort of need to get goals.
To me, it shows that both Bozak and Kadri are capable of outproducing how much they are being paid right now, so utilizing them on the top 6 roster would be a very smart move because those are the players that generally make the most money; It frees up more cap space without surrendering offensive production. The money that is saved on these two could be used to get more expensive guys once the wheeling and dealing begins. Their contracts both end in 12/13.


Lupul Bozak Kessel
Kadri 6.5 mil 6.5 mil
Kulemin Grabovski MacArthur
Crabb Steckel Boyce
Brown

We could easily afford a lineup like this next year ( basically an upgrade on Frattin and Connolly), even when including bigger contracts for Kulemin and Grabovski (they don't appear to be on pace for massive raises anyways), and our most expensive D corpse. That's enough room for two more really good players, so long as we can unload all these other contracts we have right now ie. Armstrong, Lombardi, Connolly, etc. Drafting high and getting an NHL ready prospect who can put up good numbers would even further how much money we have available to land star players.

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12-25-2011, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 42to81 View Post
The data is not meant to be super informative, I clearly stated above that there are other variables it doesn't take into account, but it is still informative to some degree. And um, it's relevant data for play makers because play makers get assists which you sort of need to get goals.
To me, it shows that both Bozak and Kadri are capable of outproducing how much they are being paid right now, so utilizing them on the top 6 roster would be a very smart move because those are the players that generally make the most money; It frees up more cap space without surrendering offensive production. The money that is saved on these two could be used to get more expensive guys once the wheeling and dealing begins. Their contracts both end in 12/13.


Lupul Bozak Kessel
Kadri 6.5 mil 6.5 mil
Kulemin Grabovski MacArthur
Crabb Steckel Boyce
Brown

We could easily afford a lineup like this next year ( basically an upgrade on Frattin and Connolly), even when including bigger contracts for Kulemin and Grabovski (they don't appear to be on pace for massive raises anyways), and our most expensive D corpse. That's enough room for two more really good players, so long as we can unload all these other contracts we have right now ie. Armstrong, Lombardi, Connolly, etc. Drafting high and getting an NHL ready prospect who can put up good numbers would even further how much money we have available to land star players.
Bang for buck rewards will regularly be prominent usually amoung your young players (on entry level contracts) that produce at high rates. That is why strong drafting and developing is so important to success in a cap world. ELC contracts are capped at $900k + earned bonus which are going to be your best value.

Your good/star players need to perform at high rates for team success, but in turn they're also paid to and consume large portions of Cap room also.

Therefore "play the kids" strategy if they can contribute, gives you the best bang for your buck team wise, as you will have more cap $$ money available to afford better players to surround them with.

When you replace Connolly ($4.75 mil) with Kadri, Lombardi ($3.5 mil) with Frattin, and Liles ($4.2 mil) with Gardiner, and Komisarek ($4.5 mil) with Aulie you get your best bang for your buck as now you can afford Zach Parise and Weber/Suter (~$6.5 mil) as additions for cap reasons and also increase your talent level..

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12-25-2011, 11:10 AM
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Might be more useful information if there was some contextualization with some of the leading NHL scorers and whatnot.

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