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Goalie controversy - Winter Classic edition

View Poll Results: From a fan's perspective, Bryz or Bob for the Winter Classic?
Bryzgalov 29 31.87%
Bobrosky 62 68.13%
Voters: 91. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-30-2011, 02:34 PM
  #51
Flyerfan4life
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Originally Posted by captain richie18 View Post
Yea, start Bobrovsky. Then see how good Bryz will rebound with his confidence at an all time low. He doesn't seem like the player to be able to rebound from this type of controversy.
if thats true we are well and truely ****ed with this guy n his contract.

Bryz losing his start in the WC is hardly the worst thing he will face from an irate Flyers fandom/media during his stay in philly

as a team player he should infact be happy with bobs performance of late and be understanding that bob gives us a better chance to win the WC.

simple as that

i strongly hope Bryz doesnt feel entitled to this game based purely on his contract and shiny new mask/HBO tv star status

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Old
12-30-2011, 02:34 PM
  #52
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Start Bob, and send a message to Bryz.

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Old
12-30-2011, 02:59 PM
  #53
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start the goalie we paid all the money to. if he never gets to play, he will never be able to rectify the situation.


Last edited by Slowbro: 12-30-2011 at 03:13 PM.
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Old
12-30-2011, 03:05 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by BAUCE View Post
start the goalie we paid all the money too. if he never gets to play, he will never be able to rectify the situation.
Seems to be a common arguement, I guess it has some merit - but suppose he continues to play and continues to dig himself deeper, you have to put a stop to it at some point.

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Old
12-30-2011, 03:12 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Flyerfan4life View Post
if thats true we are well and truely ****ed with this guy n his contract.

Bryz losing his start in the WC is hardly the worst thing he will face from an irate Flyers fandom/media during his stay in philly

as a team player he should infact be happy with bobs performance of late and be understanding that bob gives us a better chance to win the WC.

simple as that

i strongly hope Bryz doesnt feel entitled to this game based purely on his contract and shiny new mask/HBO tv star status
That's my point though, I feel he has a very very light conscious. One weaker than most professional athletes.

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12-30-2011, 03:13 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by iamcanadian23 View Post
Seems to be a common arguement, I guess it has some merit - but suppose he continues to play and continues to dig himself deeper, you have to put a stop to it at some point.
let him back up ala huet w/ the blackhawks.

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Old
12-30-2011, 04:10 PM
  #57
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I sense that too much inference is being drawn from recent events.

Bob was two pipes and a Jagr stick-lift away from a deflating loss last night. He got breaks that Bryz didn't get against Tampa and New York. To me, those results do not indicate a vast difference in their recent play. Logic indicates that you stick with your #1 goalie for the Winter Classic.

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Old
12-30-2011, 04:20 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I sense that too much inference is being drawn from recent events.

Bob was two pipes and a Jagr stick-lift away from a deflating loss last night. He got breaks that Bryz didn't get against Tampa and New York. To me, those results do not indicate a vast difference in their recent play. Logic indicates that you stick with your #1 goalie for the Winter Classic.
You're right... Bryzgalov hasn't benefited from a single good defensive play this year.

And nobody has hit the post against Bryzgalov either. This surely hasn't happened this season.

EDIT: What's that you say? Bob has a .935 save percentage in 5 December games?!? And a .927 save percentage in his last 10 games?!? It's all luck... we need to stay the course with Bryzgalov. And if he collapses horribly in an epic meltdown, we need to all remember that the universe is so humongous big. And our planet is very tiny. And losing one game against the Rangers on a national stage is no big deal in the grand scheme of the universe. Don't worry, be happy.


Last edited by WeekendAtBernies: 12-30-2011 at 04:25 PM.
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Old
12-30-2011, 04:23 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
You're right... Bryzgalov hasn't benefited from a single good defensive play this year.

And nobody has hit the post against Bryzgalov either. This surely hasn't happened this season.
No straw men, please.

Edit: Oh look, more straw men. I'm also enjoying the minuscule sample sizes.

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Old
12-30-2011, 04:24 PM
  #60
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Currently Bobs playing better so it should be his.

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12-30-2011, 04:27 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
No straw men, please.

Edit: Oh look, more straw men. I'm also enjoying the minuscule sample sizes.
You're right dude. I'm agreeing with you.

The sample sizes are so small. Realistically, we need like 500 games before we can truly evaluate Bryzgalov
. So if we give him till the end of his contract, we should be able to tell whether or not he'll be a good starter for us.

Oh wait...

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Old
12-30-2011, 04:30 PM
  #62
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It doesn't matter who starts. If the Dzone coverage is as bad as it was in Tampa, either goalie loses. If it is as good as last night in PGH, either goalie wins.

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12-30-2011, 04:41 PM
  #63
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What do you want me to say? First you're angry b/c I tossed out small sample sizes, then I offer to give Bryz a longer sample size and you call me a *****.

I can't win with you (kind of like the Flyers w/ Bryzgalov in net against the Rangers ). OH!!!! ZING!!!!


Sports is never going to give you a large sample size. You want to nitpick 3 small instances (2 post hits and a stick lift) and point out that those events could've caused Bob to lose the game but then you want to turn around and complain that arguments against Bryz are using small sample sizes?!? Come on now dude.

The eye test, the statistics, pretty much everything tells you Bob is playing better right now, AINEC. He made several saves through screens and in traffic and directed several good shots to the corners, displaying excellent rebound control... Bryz has struggled w/ all of those things. Bob iss also a ton younger and still has untapped upside. I think it's time to go w/ him and ride the hot hand.

If you disagree, that's your prerogative, but I'd love to hear one argument for keeping him in net that actually makes sense. The "you're paying him 51 million" thing doesn't make sense. The 51 million is a sunk cost... you've already spent it. You can't use that expense to justify making future poor decisions.

Bryzgalov is just another player on this team. If a roster player was playing this poorly (like JVR has been), his ice time would be reduced. Bryz isn't special. The same thing needs to happen to him.

And for those people making the "this will rattle his psyche" argument, that doesn't hold any water either. Bryz is a goalie in a huge hockey market where our fans ruthlessly chew out goalies... Especially in the playoffs. If this guy is too fragile to handle a regular season benching for the Winter Classic, then we're wasting our time because THERE'S NO WAY HE HAS THE CHUTZPAH TO MAKE IT THROUGH 4 ROUNDS OF PLAYOFF ACTION AS A PHILADELPHIA FLYER.

If you can't handle this tiny amount of adversity, you aren't going to be able to handle being buried alive by the media, fans, etc. in the playoffs when you let in a single bad goal... let alone if you have an entire bad game that costs the team a win.

It's time to find out whether Bryz can handle adversity or not.

If he can't deal w/ a benching, then I'd prefer that we do whatever we can to sever ties w/ him because he won't be winning us a Stanley Cup. Whether that be a trade to a cap floor team w/ better defense in need of a goalie, or a "handshake agreement" that sees Bryz skip to the KHL, or even a buyout (it would only be 1.7M in dead space per year... and we're already carrying that w/ Shelley + Lilja right now).

If Bryz's psyche is truly this fragile, we're wasting our time. And if you disagree with that statement, you're lying to yourself. Philly is probably the toughest place in the NHL to be a goaltender... let alone to be a struggling goalie... let alone to be a struggling goalie in the playoffs.

Every Stanley Cup winning goalie has faced adversity @ some point or another. If you can't handle adversity (which is the argument as to why we can't bench Bryz), then you're not going to win a Cup in any market... even one like TBL where the fans are lukewarm and don't ride their players... let alone in a market like Philly where we freaking chew out goalies like it's our job.


Last edited by MiamiScreamingEagles: 12-30-2011 at 05:11 PM.
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Old
12-30-2011, 05:01 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
What do you want me to say? First you're angry b/c I tossed out small sample sizes, then I offer to give Bryz a longer sample size

That's no way to have a conversation with someone. My words are right there on the screen. It's insulting when you misrepresent someone else's statements.

My argument is for patience over fickleness. I haven't seen nearly enough evidence to overturn the initial condition that Bryzgalov is the #1 goaltender (which is based on years of data and years of observation by league-wide talent evaluators). And you start your #1 goaltender in the Winter Classic.


Last edited by MiamiScreamingEagles: 12-30-2011 at 05:10 PM.
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12-30-2011, 05:48 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
You kept putting words in my mouth. That's no way to have a conversation with someone. My words are right there on the screen. It's insulting when you misrepresent someone else's statements.

My argument is for patience over fickleness. I haven't seen nearly enough evidence to overturn the initial condition that Bryzgalov is the #1 goaltender (which is based on years of data and years of observation by league-wide talent evaluators). And you start your #1 goaltender in the Winter Classic.
Can you show me these years of data plz?

If you actually conducted a season by season statistical analysis of Bryzgalov against his fellow goaltenders on his team since he first began seeing significant time in goal (ie. neutralizing the bias of different schemes, different players, etc.), you'd find that Bryzgalov actually has a WORSE save percentage than his counter parts.

From the 05-06 season up until the end of his time in Phoenix, Bryzgalov has faced 9,310 shots and allowed 786 goals for a save percentage of .9156.

From the 05-06 season up until the end of his time in Phoenix, the goalies on Bryz's team that Bryz has split time with / backed up / started over (ie. they played w/ the exact same defense / style of play / overall team strategy) have faced 7206 shots and allowed 601 goals for a save percentage of .9166.

At best, you can say that Bryz is even with his backups. Even if you only focus on his 3 full seasons in Phoenix, Bryzgalov's save percentage is .91595 to his backups' .91653 save percentage.

So exactly what "years of data" suggest that Ilya Bryzgalov is an elite goalie that's better than Bobrovsky?

I'm confused...

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Old
12-30-2011, 06:06 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
Can you show me these years of data plz?

If you actually conducted a season by season statistical analysis of Bryzgalov against his fellow goaltenders on his team since he first began seeing significant time in goal (ie. neutralizing the bias of different schemes, different players, etc.), you'd find that Bryzgalov actually has a WORSE save percentage than his counter parts.

From the 05-06 season up until the end of his time in Phoenix, Bryzgalov has faced 9,310 shots and allowed 786 goals for a save percentage of .9156.

From the 05-06 season up until the end of his time in Phoenix, the goalies on Bryz's team that Bryz has split time with / backed up / started over (ie. they played w/ the exact same defense / style of play / overall team strategy) have faced 7206 shots and allowed 601 goals for a save percentage of .9166.

At best, you can say that Bryz is even with his backups. Even if you only focus on his 3 full seasons in Phoenix, Bryzgalov's save percentage is .91595 to his backups' .91653 save percentage.

So exactly what "years of data" suggest that Ilya Bryzgalov is an elite goalie that's better than Bobrovsky?

I'm confused...
Bryzgalov became a starter in 07-08. Over the next 4 years, his 5v5 goals/shot deviation was the 2nd best in the league.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde..._goalie_skill/

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12-30-2011, 06:13 PM
  #67
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Better poll might be who finishes the game!

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12-30-2011, 06:29 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Bryzgalov became a starter in 07-08. Over the next 4 years, his 5v5 goals/shot deviation was the 2nd best in the league.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde..._goalie_skill/
And clearly 5v5 goals/shot deviation is an excellent statistic to use for ranking goalies.

After all, the top 4 are:

1. Thomas
2. Bryzgalov
3. Luongo
4. Hiller

Well... 1 out of 4 ain't bad I guess...

The author of that post even states the idea that perhaps it isn't the best analysis to use... There's a reason it hasn't caught on.

Also, that analysis would seem to state that signing a goalie to the contract we gave Bryz is a total joke. The analysis suggests that Tim Thomas (who according to the author was "head and shoulders above the rest") is only 11 goals better than the mean per season. That means that he would have a GAA that is only .13 better than average over an 82 game season.

But I'm probably wrong. Bryz and LOLuongo and Hiller are probably just all really really horribly unlucky. Advanced metrics are ALWAYS good predictors of future performance... especially obscure ones that haven't caught on!!!


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12-30-2011, 06:34 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by sandlansd View Post
And clearly 5v5 goals/shot deviation is an excellent statistic to use for ranking goalies.

After all, the top 4 are:

1. Thomas
2. Bryzgalov
3. Luongo
4. Hiller

Well... 1 out of 4 ain't bad I guess...

The author of that post even states the idea that perhaps it isn't the best analysis to use... There's a reason it hasn't caught on.

Also, that analysis would seem to state that signing a goalie to the contract we gave Bryz is a total joke. The analysis suggests that Tim Thomas (who according to the author was "head and shoulders above the rest") is only 11 goals better than the mean per season. That means that he would have a GAA that is only .13 better than average over an 82 game season.

But I'm probably wrong. Bryz and LOLuongo and Hiller are probably just all really really horribly unlucky. Advanced metrics are ALWAYS good predictors of future performance... especially obscure ones that haven't caught on!!!

Today, most hockey minds have converged on what the Contrarian Goaltender called "the one stat argument": that save percentage alone is the best way to judge goaltenders. With the arrival of more detailed data from the NHL, we can now also restrict ourselves to even-strength save percentage, which creates a more level playing field.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=558


I've had enough of your obnoxious and unwarranted sarcasm. Good night.

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12-30-2011, 06:57 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Today, most hockey minds have converged on what the Contrarian Goaltender called "the one stat argument": that save percentage alone is the best way to judge goaltenders. With the arrival of more detailed data from the NHL, we can now also restrict ourselves to even-strength save percentage, which creates a more level playing field.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=558


I've had enough of your obnoxious and unwarranted sarcasm. Good night.
I apologize, I've just grown increasingly tired of people attempting to defend Bryzgalov when even he admits he's been playing like s**t and doesn't try to blame it on "luck".

Advanced metrics are great when they actually are proven to be somewhat good @ predicting future performance. That hasn't happened here that I can see. The much more inclusive analysis performed by the guys @ hockey prospectus didn't leave us with their ranking of goalies or where Bryzgalov falls, so I can't comment on that list.

But the other link you posted had laughable results... as I said, I don't think anyone would claim LOLuongo, Bryz, or Hiller are anywhere near the top of the league in goaltending right now.

And it completely ignores the fact that certain goalies are best in certain defensive schemes / with certain coaches, etc.

The good old eyes tell me (and the vast majority of other posters here) that Bryzgalov isn't playing well for us @ all right now and it's about a lot more than luck and that Bob is the better choice to start right now. Bryz has been flat out lazy in his positioning and has let in several goals due to not being in the proper position. You can come up with whatever stats you want to try to attribute that to luck, but I attribute it to poor play. Staying on the post is a simple principle.

And at any rate, like I said, I've yet to see a good argument for continuing to start Bryz. Even if you THINK he's the better option long-term, you have to admit he could use a little jolt given his horrible play as of late. And if you really think he's emotionally / mentally fragile enough that benching him would ruin him, then you have to admit we're wasting our time w/ him... because he's going to face a whole heck of a lot more adversity in the playoffs.

I don't see a negative to benching him for the WC... but I see a whole bunch of positives.

I'm tired of beating around the bush w/ goalies. I want to learn what we have in Bryzgalov and whether he can win us a cup right now. And if he gets benched and comes back stronger than ever, then he passes the test. If he gets worse and goes off the deep end, then he's too mentally soft to play goalie in this city and I'll be happy that we found it out now instead of delaying the inevitable.

Can you provide any argument disagreeing w/ any of what I've posted?

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12-30-2011, 08:14 PM
  #71
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At least Bryz can pay for Russian Cosmonaut training in the offseason, and he should be great next season.

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12-30-2011, 08:28 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyerX View Post
It doesn't matter who starts. If the Dzone coverage is as bad as it was in Tampa, either goalie loses. If it is as good as last night in PGH, either goalie wins.
yup i agree with you. We had really bad defence at tampa and it wasn't just Bryz, glad im not alone seeing that

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12-30-2011, 08:32 PM
  #73
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i truly don't see Bob starting (people who see my posts know i'm the BIGGEST of bob supporters), but one thing is certain, whoever is starting will have a nifty helmet.

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Old
12-30-2011, 11:18 PM
  #74
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As an outsider this reminds me of when Hawks played Wings at Wrigley

Huet record going into game = 8-5-3

Khabibulin record going into game = 11-2-4

Khabibulin was playing better and should have been #1 guy but Huet got the start vs Wings ,,, Story ended with Huet playing terrible and Khabibulin finishing game not giving up a goal but the defecit being too big to overcome

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12-30-2011, 11:49 PM
  #75
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Laviolette must hate the situation he's in. Bob should be starting and if this was any other game, he probably would be. But since everyone will be watching on this special occasion, Laviolette is no doubt concerned he'll make his immediate boss look like an idiot if he doesn't play Bryz.

In the end, for all the talk about winning being the number one goal yadda yadda yadda, I suspect the decision will be tied to the big contract.

It's a shame really, because Laviolette will likely feel forced to make a call he knows is not in the best interest of the team or the fans, just so one man doesn't lose face. He won't want to bite the hand that feeds.

If he puts Bob in, he's got big balls and will deserve some serious respect.

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