At the 40-game point, projecting the results from the conference thus far over the entire season, the Kings end in ninth place with 92 points for the 2011-12 season, exactly in the "black hole" that the last five years were supposed to prevent.
I'm not bringing this up to specifically rag on Lombardi & crew, but to make the point that this team isn't significantly better off than the pre-rebuild group. In order to make the playoffs, the Kings only need to improve marginally, but that long February road trip is a crapshoot at best (last year notwithstanding), so it's iffy that the team makes it in without significant improvements.
Nothing we don't know already, but management needs to find a guy who can actually hit an open net off of a rebound, sooner rather than later. It's going to take time to integrate a top end guy, and the season is slipping away quickly.
The #'s for those who are interested:
GP PTS PGP PROJ
1 CHI 39 52 1.333 109.3333333
2 VAN 40 51 1.275 104.55
3 SJ 35 44 1.257 103.0857143
4 DET 38 49 1.289 105.7368421
5 STL 38 47 1.237 101.4210526
6 MIN 40 48 1.200 98.4
7 NSH 39 46 1.179 96.71794872
8 DAL 37 43 1.162 95.2972973
At the 40-game point, projecting the results from the conference thus far over the entire season, the Kings end in ninth place...
Nothing we don't know already, but management needs to find a guy who can actually hit an open net off of a rebound, sooner rather than later. It's going to take time to integrate a top end guy, and the season is slipping away quickly.
Note to self: start threads like this the day after a WIN.
The Kings have exactly the same number of points as they did this time last season after the same # of games.
This time last year the Kings were dealing with their 5th straight loss which wound up being a 2-10 run. I don't see the wheels falling off of this year's team anytime soon.
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"In a year that has been so improbable, the impossible has happened." - Vin Scully being clairvoyant in 1988.
The Los Angeles Kings - 2012 Stanley Cup Champions
At the 40-game point, projecting the results from the conference thus far over the entire season, the Kings end in ninth place with 92 points for the 2011-12 season, exactly in the "black hole" that the last five years were supposed to prevent.
Only if you believe that the next 40 games will be the same as they were in first half of the regular season under Murray...
Kings sit at 46.1%, so basically a coin flip at this point.
If they go 23-15-4, they will hit 95 points. Definitely doable. 25-12-5 gets them 100 points, also possible.
Didn't the Kings have 45 points after 40 games last year?
Someone posted yesterday that if the Kings won last night that they would be a point ahead of last seasons' pace.
Since they got the loser point they are on the same pace.
We are just going to need another terrific run down the stretch like we had last year.
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"It has not been a good day. I lost my glasses early this morning and I had to go buy a pair of 79 dollar reading glasses today. 79 bucks. You can literally get them at Costco, three-for-20." - Darryl Sutter's response to going up 2-0 in the series.
Only if you believe that the next 40 games will be the same as they were in first half of the regular season under Murray...
Which, more or less by inference, I do. The team hasn't changed dramatically, the coaching change made what will probably be minor improvements, just enough to climb into the 7-8 spot and get blown out in the first round again. From my point of view, this is the same issue we dealt with half a decade ago--a good team that can't quite pull together enough luck/heart/talent/etc. to climb into a high playoff spot against a weaker team, with home ice.
I think there are differneces. Mainly, we have a guy in net who looks like a surefire, permanent fixture for another decade. We didn't have that a decade ago. We had 3 months of a very hot Felix Potvin and a lot of retreads besides that.
We are also much younger and elite and most importantly healthy this time around. Give me Quick, Kopitar, Richards, Johnson and Doughty over Allison, Deadmarsh, Palffy, Blake and Potvin any time (Though I'd love a healthy Palffy/Deader on this squad).
This team is likely to get better since all of our piece, other than quick, are locked in long-term. And all are still entering/not yet at their primes. This year isn't going well, but the future bodes well.
Which, more or less by inference, I do. The team hasn't changed dramatically, the coaching change made what will probably be minor improvements, just enough to climb into the 7-8 spot and get blown out in the first round again. From my point of view, this is the same issue we dealt with half a decade ago--a good team that can't quite pull together enough luck/heart/talent/etc. to climb into a high playoff spot against a weaker team, with home ice.
So, you think that the change from TM to DS will improve the team from a .563 winning percentage to a .607 clip for the rest of the year... that's what you're saying?
I think there are differneces. Mainly, we have a guy in net who looks like a surefire, permanent fixture for another decade. We didn't have that a decade ago. We had 3 months of a very hot Felix Potvin and a lot of retreads besides that.
We are also much younger and elite and most importantly healthy this time around. Give me Quick, Kopitar, Richards, Johnson and Doughty over Allison, Deadmarsh, Palffy, Blake and Potvin any time (Though I'd love a healthy Palffy/Deader on this squad).
Well, to be fair, we never got to see a HEALTHY Allison and Deadmarsh for an extended period of time.
How would Kings fans judge DT's tenure differently if Allison and Deadmarsh were actually able to play together for 3 - 5 seasons... The Kings have never had a big, skilled forward like Allison. I was hoping Boyle would be that guy, but... oh well (and I realize he's still not that guy w/ NYR)
And did you just use the word "elite" when describing the Kings? HA!
That is a serious lowering of expectations.
So, you think that the change from TM to DS will improve the team from a .563 winning percentage to a .607 clip for the rest of the year... that's what you're saying?
It's a reasonable possibility, not a lock--the issue is that I don't see any further improvements beyond that.
If the team makes an 8% improvement in points over the results from the first 40 games, with no other significant changes in the lineup, I think you'd have to credit the coaching staff. That said, .607 is about the best that could be realistically expected (25-15-1), resulting in 96 points and an 8-seed. If the team gets lucky, or one of the higher seeds gets the flu/injured/left at the airport for a month, 7th could be in play. But the going is tough for the rest of the year, 8th is about as high as I would expect, and that's if everything goes correctly.
The good news is that the problem is easy to identify--not enough goals. The bad news is that solving that problem has been very, very difficult thus far.
I think there are differneces. Mainly, we have a guy in net who looks like a surefire, permanent fixture for another decade. We didn't have that a decade ago. We had 3 months of a very hot Felix Potvin and a lot of retreads besides that.
I agree (pending a new contract for Quick), in part. At the time, I wondered what would have happened if DT had solved the goalie problem in the previous season. Potvin was great, but he had offensive support--Quick doesn't. Unless he starts skating the puck up ice, he's gonna need help.
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Originally Posted by kingsfan
We are also much younger and elite and most importantly healthy this time around. Give me Quick, Kopitar, Richards, Johnson and Doughty over Allison, Deadmarsh, Palffy, Blake and Potvin any time (Though I'd love a healthy Palffy/Deader on this squad).
I'd love a current Palffy on this squad. Anybody who can take a shot and get it on net consistently. Watching Jagr in the Classic was an eye-opener--the guy was threading cross-ice passes to open sticks over two lanes, in-stride. They generally went to waste, but the talent was still evident.
The offense seems to be waking up a bit, the cycle is very good, but I'm concerned that the honeymoon period will end on Sutter and the team still won't be Finals-competitive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingsfan
This team is likely to get better since all of our piece, other than quick, are locked in long-term. And all are still entering/not yet at their primes. This year isn't going well, but the future bodes well.
The future is all that's boded well for quite a while. I can understand the desire to look at the overall strength of the club by comparison, but as of last season, big parts of the future got traded for pieces of the present. So far, the result has been disappointing.
Which, more or less by inference, I do. The team hasn't changed dramatically, the coaching change made what will probably be minor improvements, just enough to climb into the 7-8 spot and get blown out in the first round again. From my point of view, this is the same issue we dealt with half a decade ago--a good team that can't quite pull together enough luck/heart/talent/etc. to climb into a high playoff spot against a weaker team, with home ice.
And this is where I disagree with you. We've been playing playoff-style hockey games all year. As long as we're healthy and make the playoffs, we are a threat to knock out anyone. If you had any questions on that, I'd reference you to the recent games against Chicago and Vancouver, your current 1 and 2 seeds.
And, since you like to extrapolate, I'd point out that the Kings are 4-0-3 under Sutter. That's 11 points in 7 games for ~ 1.571 P/GP. If they hold that pace over the next 42 games, then we'll finish with another 66 points for a total of 110. HOLY ****, we're gonna be the #1 seed!!!
And this is where I disagree with you. We've been playing playoff-style hockey games all year. As long as we're healthy and make the playoffs, we are a threat to knock out anyone. If you had any questions on that, I'd reference you to the recent games against Chicago and Vancouver, your current 1 and 2 seeds.
And, since you like to extrapolate, I'd point out that the Kings are 4-0-3 under Sutter. That's 11 points in 7 games for ~ 1.571 P/GP. If they hold that pace over the next 42 games, then we'll finish with another 66 points for a total of 110. HOLY ****, we're gonna be the #1 seed!!!
EDIT: our total would be 111 points, not 110
Fair enough, but I'd put the probability of a slight improvement over half a season ahead of never losing another game in regulation, wouldn't you? My goal wasn't to be snarky with stats--the point is that the team needs more help than I can realistically expect Sutter to deliver on his own. If DL stands pat, it's a coin flip from here on out.
I know, it's all mathy and stuff, kind of spooky. Sorry to freak you out. Tell you what, I'll make it up to you--here's a great extrapolation tip from those of us in the hobby. Next time you're at a poker table in Vegas and you flop 3 aces, and the turn is an ace, put a TON down on the river coming an ace, too--the trend guarantees it's a sure thing!
Seriously, I get why people hate this kind of analysis, but the only way to be more accurate is to wait until after the season ends. Kind of pointless, then. Granted, this is only slightly less pointless, but I did the numbers for my own benefit and thought I would share.
...Seriously, I get why people hate this kind of analysis, but the only way to be more accurate is to wait until after the season ends. Kind of pointless, then. Granted, this is only slightly less pointless, but I did the numbers for my own benefit and thought I would share.
You know, you're right. Thanks for putting those numbers up.
The issue with this kind of analysis - at least in sports - is that there's a rather weird wild card variable called "human". I like this kind of analysis. I like it even more when "humans", in this case a team of athletes, beat the analytic prediction with determination and skill (insert Kings skill joke here).
Hey since we are playing fun with statistics aren't we something like 5-0-3 under our new coach? So if we extrapolate that out for the next 40 games we will end up with well over 50 more points which will give more than enough to make the playoffs. If we follow the percentages according to allot of the speculation going on around here we should enter the playoffs up there with the best.
Let it go. There is ALLOT of hockey left and we are playing ALLOT better than we were before DS. Lets at least give it a little more time before we melt down and start crying like the bunch of babies that some of us seem to want us all to be.
We are playing some pretty good hockey under DS and the team sure seems to be coming around and listening, who knows how this will go for the rest of the season?
What is wrong with just enjoying your freaking hockey club and supporting by looking for the best it has to offer for a change?
I think we need to add and the sooner the better.
We are one injury away from disaster With the new concussion protocol and considering the number of concussions that he has had, Gagne could be out for a while. Penner needs to be given to a glue factory.
Brown is a second liner and Williams needs to show up.
We need two left wings and one legit first line right wing...now. Not two minutes from now.....now!
I am cool with see what Brown can do for us on the left wing.
