I see your point, but I just think there is too much gap between similar players, and they only thing I can attribute it to, is either their physical appearance (height, weight), or other factors such as agents being more aggressive and pushing their clients onto those that make the lists.
There are alot of smallish type forwards in the NHL now that seem to make the hilight reel nightly, or are leading their teams in scoring, but seem to be overlooked at the NHL draft, because they are not 6'2 or taller and have a mean streak.
Look at some of Boston's forwards, most of Buffalo's forwards, most of Detroit's forwards and so on......
For every 6'2" power forward that makes an impact in the NHL, there are 20 smallish playmakers that make an impact.
Alot of these smallish (5'10"-5'11") type playmaking forwards get overlooked in the early rounds, and are selected by the teams that know how to evaluate, in the later rounds.
Everybody wants to draft a Tom Wilson, or Laughton, or Gaunce because of their size, but in the NHL, you need to know how to skate, and play a role. They, except for Gaunce will turn into fighters, and if Gaunce can keep up with the skating, he should be a skater. Guys like Galchenyuk, Yakupov, Campagna, etcc... they will remain as playmakers and should strive in the new NO TOUCH NHL.
I agree with the development and progress of Campagna over the last couple of years, and even a kid like Graham in Niagara.
However, just because Athanasiou progresses over the last 2 years, doesnt mean that he is a better prospect than others.
Maidens did minimal in Minor Midget, especially the big tournys,and besides a couple of lucky goals in last year's OHL cup, he really hasnt progressed. He was the best Bantam player in the G, while playing on the Nats.
How about a kid like Blujus in Brampton. Solid, big D on a team that plays a great system. Why doesnt he get noticed by the list makers?
The OHL is all about FIT. Each player sould find his fit and then they can shine.
Gaunce has found it in Belleville, as he plays all the time and puts up good stats. Monahan has found his fit in Ottawa. Gemel Smith in OS. and so on.
It is clear that the early rankings will be completely different than the final year rankings, especially for the kids ranked between 15 and 30.
Just look at Central Scouting's first list this year. Half of those guys in the top 30 may fall to 5-7 rounders.
Just my opinions
You make some good arguments.
Really, it's all about projectability. It's not what the player is doing now...in a lot of cases...it's where you see that player being 2, 3, 4 years down the line.
Take a guy like Thomas Wilson for example. A guy struggling to find offensive consistency and on paper (statistically), doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the top 60 of the draft. Yet...he is. And it's because you can imagine where he will be in 2-3 years time. He's a big guy who can skate. He throws his body around and drops the mitts. He also has hands. Scouts look at him and think...he's the next Milan Lucic. Just as they thought about Kyle Clifford when he went early.
A guy like Campagna, who is a solid OHL player, just doesn't project as well. I have to agree with Tiger in that I haven't seen a ton of progression from him since he stepped foot in the league.
But you are right in a lot of ways. Sometimes the guys in the North (and the guys in the States), get under scouted because they aren't under the southern Ontario microscope. I have to admit, I've only seen Sudbury twice this year, and both times was on television. Not live. So my opinion of Campagna may not jive with yours since you've clearly seen him more.
Just RE: a few of your other comments.
Maidens - Not sure how you can say he hasn't progressed. I'm not his most staunch supporter (I like him, but not as much as others), but he's made great strides this year in Owen Sound. He's a much more complete offensive player and the fact that he's already passed his offensive output of last year speaks volumes to that.
Blujus - It's all about skating. He's got a big frame, but he's awkward. Can be exposed defensively off the rush...and because of his skating, he may not translate to a puck mover at the next level. You ask any scout, one of the most important things for a defenseman is their skating ability (not just speed, but mobility, edging, balance, etc). He's a project and that's why he's lower down on a lot of lists.
As for Laughton, as Tiger said, he's a fantastic player. He's WAY more than just a fighter. He's also not a huge guy (really about the same size as Campagna). But he's better in nearly every single area. I can see why you might say Wilson is just a fighter, but not Laughton.
Take a guy like Thomas Wilson for example. A guy struggling to find offensive consistency and on paper (statistically), doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the top 60 of the draft. Yet...he is. And it's because you can imagine where he will be in 2-3 years time. He's a big guy who can skate. He throws his body around and drops the mitts. He also has hands. Scouts look at him and think...he's the next Milan Lucic. Just as they thought about Kyle Clifford when he went early.
I have got the same vibe, with a slightly different slant. I like to call it Pierre McGuire syndrome
Find some guys not in everyone's front line of view, but obviously has some talent. Push several of them every year as your sleeper, and when one pans out eventually, you can go back to your analysis and make yourself look smart.
Basically, scouts seem to be more apt to look for the home run rather than the safe bet. I know the word usually used is project-ability. I prefer to use the word potential. Project-ability is is predicted what a player will be, to my mind potential is what a player could be if they apply themselves.
I sat beside a scout (supposedly) at a 67's game earlier this year. His take on Ceci was, nice player, but probably only a second pairing D man in the big leagues, you know what you are getting. Dumba now, that could be a number 1 guy. He may not be as good now, but he could be much better.
The teams generally seem to shy away from safe players that are not superstars, I expect because they figure they can pick them up as a FA.
Take the last CSS list I saw. They had Ceci in a position where you likely would not be a first round pick, even though I'd say he has probably been the best playing D man available in the draft up until this point (injuries to Reilly and Murray of course the big reason why).
In your points about Maidens; if he was a first year player last year on a talented and OHL champion and scored 25 points or so, while playing minimal minutes compared to this year, given that alot of the veteran talent is gone, dont you think he should have alot more points at this stage. Remember, OS has scored over 120 goals this year, and that means alot more PP time for him, and without the presence of the big stars from last year. To me, that shows a digression in his play, not a progression.
Campagna, on a lower scoring team, and with minimal time on the PP and 4 on 4, has already surpassed his totals from last year.
Also, Laughton is a banger, but him, or Maidens, dont have the playmaking hands like Campagna.
Two weeks ago on Hockey Central, Millard asked the guests if they had a chance to go back to the 2004 NHL draft, would they take Ovechkin first still, and Malkin second or not. 2 of the 3 said they would take Malkin first. Reason was because Malkin is a centre and a Playmaker.
Mark Savard, Brunette, Stillman, these guys had long careers, smallish players, but the knack for making plays. Look at the leafs, they have been trying for years, and still cant find a great centre. They can find tonnes of Laughtons, or Maidens or even Tom Wilsons (unless he becomes a Lucic- I agree with you there). But if he becomes a Belak (god rest his soul), a high first round pick, picked for his potential, and size and fighting ability. Unfortunately, he didnt pan out to be a first round pick.
jamie Benn was a 5th rounder, and I believe Detroit may not have a first rounder on their whole team. LOL
thanks for the support and it is nice to have a civil and constructive discussion.
I am an avid minor hockey fan, and love to watch OHL hockey. My kids dont play hockey but watch alot of it. I am not related to any kid in the OHL.
Having watched over 10 years of minor hockey, I can attest that there are too many tricksters in this industry and unfortunately it takes away the lustre of the minor Hockey game in Canada. Too many good kids dont get their proper due.
It would be nice if David Branch came down harder on those who try to manipulate the OHL process/draft for personal gains, and not for the benefit of the league or game.
He's suffered two concussions this year (one at the Ivan Hlinka in aug then in the 2nd game of the season) Once he came back it took him a while to get going and once he did for about 4 games he suffered a shoulder injury.
He's been back now for a cpl games and has looked quite sharp again. I suspect his stock will rise again to the 1st round.
Marcantuoni continued his strong play since being back last week.
Then......when speeding in to get his first career hattrick in Erie, he caught a rut and went full bore into the end boards and is now out
.....again.....with a shoulder injury!
MM is probably going through the toughest stretch of injuries that I've ever seen.
Has anyone seen the latest Central Scouting rankings?? Top 15 or top 20 I can stomach, after that, it really is a crapshoot.
I dont believe the kids are ranked soley based on talent, and feel that there are way too many external factors at play here, and it looks rediculous.
I know it is only a list and an association's opinion, but *** on. It seems like some players that are favourites, or seen more often are higher ranked then others that might not get as much exposure.
If you were to ask Ken Holland, and Lou Lamoriello and Rick Dudley, they would be salivating if all they had was 3rd or 4th round draft picks. Who needs first or 2nd round draft picks, if they follow that list.
I know the lists change, and in May , we will see something more realistic, especially outside the first 20 listed.
