Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho
It is true that it's better to be near the end of a tier than the start, but the differences are small and in the long run, while 5th or 6th may be the start of a tier and 10/11th the end, maybe in the 3rd or 5th round that 5th/6th pick gets the start of a tier. And early on, getting the pick of a tier has it's value, especially if you have a direction you wish to head it.
I guess what I'm saying is that while it may seem advantageous at the early going, the effect of tiers is prevalent from start to finish and because of the snaking order, everyone will benefit and suffer from being in the right/wrong spot of a tier needing the right/wrong thing.
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You're right that it balances out pretty much in the end, and the best drafter is likely to do well no matter where their first selection is. My point is that because of how strong the group of GM's here is, that initial slight advantage in placement could ultimately be the difference in a playoff series. The only reason that it balances out is because of luck and certain players falling. However, in the case that throughout the whole draft there are no "steals" or falling players, there are a few easily identifiable positions that would hypothetically have an advantage.
But whatever, it's all semantics. I'm fine with the draft lottery.