HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Montreal Canadiens
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Lars Eller: will he ever make it here?

View Poll Results: We don't know the future, but what do you think?
Yes, Eller is being handled perfectly fine 97 84.35%
No, he's not being given the chance to thrive 18 15.65%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
01-16-2012, 01:35 PM
  #26
BlackStar
Registered User
 
BlackStar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,314
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Eller's two-way game is severly overrated. He's a good responsible player but his offensive game isn't up to par and his defensive game isn't elite like Staals. Staal is worlds ahead of Eller and may always be. I consider Staal a very good player so it isn't a shot at Eller whatsoever.

I really fail to see how Eller will be a 70 point center. Does it mean I don't think he's integral to the team? Absolutely not. I think he's perfect if he matures in his role.

I think expectations need to be realistic and that's what we're seeing here. We're all crying for him to be the next star forward but there's a reason he is where he is. This guy will be a huge core piece for us but not in the way people think. He'll be our two-way 3rd line center. Our Bolland, Staal or whatever. Management is developing him thay way as well. Unless he turns up the offensive output, I think management is fairly comfortable grooming him into our own long term 2nd/3rd line center.
Obviously Eller is nowhere near as good as Staal yet. It doesn't mean they aren't similar players. They are both big talented two way centers. You also likened Eller to Staal on your post so i don't understand why you took my comparison of the two the way you did. But just to clarify, I very much doubt that Eller will not develop into second line center. Like I said, he is already a fairly good third line center. The team ofcourse can choose to use him as such if they want to go after an elite center, then keep Plekanec as a number 2 center then Eller as a third line center(I'd prefer deshairnas as a winger if he has to compete with Eller for the 3rd line center position).

I would not be disappointed if Eller develped into an "elite" third liner or a good second line center with 50-60ish points(i think that's most likely). However, I would not be surprised if he became more than that.

BlackStar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 01:43 PM
  #27
Ozymandias
#firetherrien
 
Ozymandias's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Hockey Mecca
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,438
vCash: 500
Eller's development reminds me of Mikko Koivu.

People here are so much in need of an offense superstar that if they don't see consistent play from a 22 years old, they think he'll never amount to much. Facepalm worthy. He could end-up anywhere between a PPG two-way center, to a 40-50 points two-way center.

Seriously people should read on genetic adaptation. There's an old saying that defines this reality very well : Practice makes perfect.

People also thought Plekanec would never amount to more than a third line defensive center.

Ozymandias is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 01:44 PM
  #28
Ohashi_Jouzu
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Halifax
Country: Japan
Posts: 22,325
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackStar View Post
Obviously Eller is nowhere near as good as Staal yet. It doesn't mean they aren't similar players.
Maybe it doesn't mean that, but they are by no means similar players - beyond vague labels such as "big talented two way centers", that is. Whether you talk about impact, or "polish", or "pedigree", or achievement, or intangibles, or... whatever... Staal has already distinguished himself above Eller in every category, and the way he has gotten it done on the ice differs greatly from Eller's style of play so far in his early career.

Ohashi_Jouzu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 01:47 PM
  #29
HeShootsHeScores
Registered User
 
HeShootsHeScores's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,375
vCash: 500
He's puck a possession master but he doesn't have the offensive edge of a desharnais.

His 4 goals game was magic, but his tools are more about protecting the puck and taking control of the play. With is level of maturity rising, he'll become a center I'll have a lot of confidence in when it will be the time to give the team a puck possession boost or protecting a lead. From time to time his shot will surprise the goalies, but I don't think his brilliant future is about scoring goals.

He doesn't have an incredible vision. He loves to turn around in the offensive corner and wait for the dman to arrive at the blue line so he can pass him the puck and keep building up a play with puck cycling. Simple, efficient most of the time, but not 60pts a season worthy. Amazing puck handling but that ,I guess everyone noticed, doesn't necessarily lead to goals.

Plekanec and Desharnais have an "unpredictability" factor that will make them dominate more games scoringwise.

He has the tools a coach must love to have, when used in specific situations.

And he'sd being handled very well. I think RC has high expectations for this player.

HeShootsHeScores is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 01:47 PM
  #30
EllertoKostitsynGoal
Registered User
 
EllertoKostitsynGoal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Mtl
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,055
vCash: 500
Well he has the work ethic to do so and the constant desire to get better, he should end the season with about 30 even strenght point wich is the kind of production this kind of player tend to end up with at his age. I don't know if he'll ever be enough of a PP producer (will he even remember how to play on the PP when he gets a chance to ) to be considered a big name but I project him as a great ES guy capable of finishing in the + against top lines ala Plekanec. Maybe better 5-5 than Pleky with less PP production?

Since the finish issues seem to be more a question of millisecond than an unability to generate chances I'm not too worried about that. Let's say I would be be alot more worried if he had the same number of goals while shooting at 25%+. Not that I expect him to be a 30+ goal guy, more of a sure 20 goal a year like Plekanec. He has worked on his shot, but it can still get better, and he is shooting more and that's always a good sign of progress.

What I like is that he is progressing slowly instead of coming up on fire before regressing wich isn't surprising since most two-way players tend to devellop that way. He's probably more naturally skilled than Plek is and he has more tools to work with too. His ES production follow the pattern of most pure two way players like Koivu, Richards, Kesler...

He's also getting pretty good at that puck protection and puck possession thing wich is sorely lacking in our centers.

I'll just say that what I didn't like about last night's benching is that I'm not sure if Cunneyworth actually knows why Eller was struggling. Pretty easy to say he wasn't playing the right way and made mistakes but when that happens you give the first line matchupe to Plek or Gomez. Or, at the very least, you put Subban and Gorges with him, not Emelin and Diaz. That's a recipe for disaster. Even if he is a good two way player, doesn't mean he is ready for first line matchups night after night, espescially not backed up by a Emelin-Diaz pairing. Give him some but if you notice he is struggling, send Plek or Gomez against the first lines.

But I really don't see how he tops as a third line center, I mean he technically could but I don't see it. Personnally, I'm not that old and I havn't been watching hockey for that long but from what I'm seeing he possibly has the highest upside out of any foward we had since Koivu(well technically AK possibly had higher upside but Eller has the Plek-like work ethic to make him reach his, not that I want to bash AK). But yeah, two players take a bit longer on average. Positive with that is that their peak-prime also tend to last longer.

But for the Eller fan Corey Pronman agrees with me

coreypronman Always been an Eller fan. Good 2nd/fringe 1st liner. RT @CynthiaC88C: @coreypronman Your toughts on Eller ? Potential? 6:40 PM Dec 18th, 2011 from TweetDeck

coreypronman Will be good possession player for while. Misused badly last year. RT @bszwarz: @coreypronman thoughts on Lars Eller's development? 8:34 PM Dec 19th, 2011 from TweetDeck

coreypronman Im guessing his big season is next yr. RT @howl4hockey: @coreypronman you were high on Lars Eller last year. Prediction coming to fruition? 4:56 AM Jan 5th from TweetDeck

I remember he had his ceiling as a good first line center at the time of the trade so his reservations may be about the "misused badly last year" part. Personnally I think Mikko Koivu is a good comparision.

So basically, patience, it'll be worth it.

EllertoKostitsynGoal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 01:53 PM
  #31
Habs 4 Life
No Excuses
 
Habs 4 Life's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Montreal
Country: Italy
Posts: 33,266
vCash: 256
I really hope he keeps developing and becomes a 2nd line center. I think that's how high we can hope for him. Right now he is an ideal 3rd line playmaker, problem is we already have DD that should be in that spot. Habs need to find a real #1 center

Habs 4 Life is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 01:53 PM
  #32
EllertoKostitsynGoal
Registered User
 
EllertoKostitsynGoal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Mtl
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,055
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
I'm not sold on the potential people claim he's still our best center prospect. For now I have no issue with how he's being used as last year he started off very raw and still is in regards to the offensive side of the game. As long as he keeps improving I'm happy. I trust cunneyworth as he's been a development coach for years.
I think that's another thing with Eller, he did start off very very raw. Wich is kind of normal for a puck protection player who lacked the strenght to fully play his game at the NHL level last year. But like I said earlier, I like the raw skills he has, that's the kind of things you can't teach.

Edit: Also the work ethic and maturity for a guy his age can't be understated, they are one of the main reason why I think he can fully reach his ceiling, espescially in this market.

EllertoKostitsynGoal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 01:57 PM
  #33
Stradale
Registered User
 
Stradale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 10,000
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habs 4 Life View Post
I really hope he keeps developing and becomes a 2nd line center. I think that's how high we can hope for him. Right now he is an ideal 3rd line playmaker, problem is we already have DD that should be in that spot. Habs need to find a real #1 center
I want Getzlaf.

Stradale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:00 PM
  #34
Et le But
Moderator
 
Et le But's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: New York
Country: Argentina
Posts: 17,915
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeShootsHeScores View Post
He doesn't have an incredible vision. He loves to turn around in the offensive corner and wait for the dman to arrive at the blue line so he can pass him the puck and keep building up a play with puck cycling. Simple, efficient most of the time, but not 60pts a season worthy. Amazing puck handling but that ,I guess everyone noticed, doesn't necessarily lead to goals.
This sounds a lot like Scott Gomez, who had multiple 60 pt seasons. Plekanec doesn't have elite vision either, he's a good passer and intelligent but he doesn't make plays for his linemates out of nowhere as much as he opens up space for them.

Even if you aren't a pure playmaker like Desharnais, you can learn with experience how to be better at opening up space like Pleks has managed to do.

Et le But is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:05 PM
  #35
LyricalLyricist
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,503
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackStar View Post
Here's my question then, Cunney by how he is he using Eller on the team seemingly thinks that Eller has atleast top-six potential. Like you said, Cunney has been a developmental coach for years. Therefore, don't you think that if he is trying to develop Eller into a first-liner(i believe he sees that much potential in him) then that you should probably ask why you and the experienced developmental coach do not share the same views about Eller's potential?
You made an impressive jump there. Apparently because he has given him top 6 minutes on occasion, he feels Eller can be a first line center? I mean, wouldn't it make more sense if you said "top 6 center" rather than 1st line center? Isn't that a leap? It's like me saying, DD has been getting big minutes, JM and Cunneyworth feel he can be a #1 80 point center, who are YOU to disagree? You'd instantly disagree at such logic.

Either way, you always try to bring the most out of players so saying they are trying to make him grow offensively isn't really ground breaking.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackStar View Post
Obviously Eller is nowhere near as good as Staal yet. It doesn't mean they aren't similar players. They are both big talented two way centers. You also likened Eller to Staal on your post so i don't understand why you took my comparison of the two the way you did. But just to clarify, I very much doubt that Eller will not develop into second line center. Like I said, he is already a fairly good third line center. The team ofcourse can choose to use him as such if they want to go after an elite center, then keep Plekanec as a number 2 center then Eller as a third line center(I'd prefer deshairnas as a winger if he has to compete with Eller for the 3rd line center position).

I would not be disappointed if Eller develped into an "elite" third liner or a good second line center with 50-60ish points(i think that's most likely). However, I would not be surprised if he became more than that.
Let me ask you a question. How many 21-22 year old centers who made 17 points followed by 30ish points at 22-23 year olds became 70+ point centers?

He has great 3rd line C potential and he may become a 2nd line center, that's possible. 1st line? I really don't see it.

I really don't consider Eller a great 3rd line center at this point either. I think he has a few years to go before he can be a dominant 3rd line center. I liken his potential more to a Bolland than a Staal. If I may add his, Bolland's career history at same age is better than eller's as well.

LyricalLyricist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:19 PM
  #36
gillyguzzler
Registered User
 
gillyguzzler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,753
vCash: 500
I PVR most games and decided to go back to the first period to see why Eller and AK were benched.

On the Rangers goal, Diaz and Emelin (although I like them both) were quite lost in their zone and contributed to the goal as much as Eller. For the rest of the period, Eller seemed a bit out of synch with his lineamates but it looked like the effort was there. Bench him for a shift or two after the play, but don't wait until the next period to bench him.

As far as AK, he had nothing to do with the Ranger goal and I saw 6 or 7 really nice creative plays. It's easy to single out a lost battle or a bad decision, but for every bad play, there are 3 or 4 really good plays. It's too bad the "experts" don't always show both sides when being critical of a player.

gillyguzzler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:20 PM
  #37
guest1467
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 24,824
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Maybe it doesn't mean that, but they are by no means similar players - beyond vague labels such as "big talented two way centers", that is. Whether you talk about impact, or "polish", or "pedigree", or achievement, or intangibles, or... whatever... Staal has already distinguished himself above Eller in every category, and the way he has gotten it done on the ice differs greatly from Eller's style of play so far in his early career.
Their puck protection, stick handling, puck control and skating abilities are actually quite similar. They both play a rushing puck possession two way game, although of course have differences just like any other player.

guest1467 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:27 PM
  #38
overlords
Hfboards
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Trolling Brian Wilde
Posts: 26,411
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post



Let me ask you a question. How many 21-22 year old centers who made 17 points followed by 30ish points at 22-23 year olds became 70+ point centers?
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=56385

Of course, pleks only scored 70 points once, and 69 another time, but still.

Not saying it's likely, but Eller shows far more promise than pleks did at the same age, with comparable defensive prowess. Eller also seems to have that same great attitude and work ethic.

Seems people can only really gripe about him and his finish. If you guys don't think in 5-6 years when he hits his prime he won't have improved his finishing by a significant margin, well, ok then.

overlords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:28 PM
  #39
guest1467
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 24,824
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Let me ask you a question. How many 21-22 year old centers who made 17 points followed by 30ish points at 22-23 year olds became 70+ point centers?
I am sure I could find a few if I devoted the time to doing so. I like to look at the progression once you enter the league, rather than age comparisons. For one, not all players develop biologically at the same pace, and two, each player is put in different environments (linemates, offensive ability of club, junior experience, depth of team ect) which allow them to produce or not.

Player progression is not fixed on a certain variance, it is dependent on each player and situation.

The fact that he got 17, and 30 points respectively in his first two seasons is more of an indication of progress rather than what age he did so at. If he gets somewhere around 45-50 points next season, his chances of reaching a PPG status at some time of his career increase, or vice versa if he doesn't.

guest1467 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:32 PM
  #40
LyricalLyricist
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,503
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by overlords View Post
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=56385

Of course, pleks only scored 70 points once, and 69 another time, but still.

Not saying it's likely, but Eller shows far more promise than pleks did at the same age, with comparable defensive prowess. Eller also seems to have that same great attitude and work ethic.

Seems people can only really gripe about him and his finish. If you guys don't think in 5-6 years when he hits his prime he won't have improved his finishing by a significant margin, well, ok then.
70+ point means 71 and above. Plekanec hit 70.

Plekanec>>Eller.

The real answer if you look at last year's 70 or more point centers is maybe Kesler and Ribeiro. They are the only two in the top 20 scoring for centers that fit his career path even a little bit. The top 20 is guys 62 points and up btw. Eller's career path matches(a little bit 2 of them. I think that shows historically, it's not happening.

I don't understand though. It's overrating the guy big time. Only 10 guys got over 70 points last year, 10. That includes 1 dimensional offensive centers. Here we are thinking Eller will be a two-way 70+ center? uh...no.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
I am sure I could find a few if I devoted the time to doing so. I like to look at the progression once you enter the league, rather than age comparisons. For one, not all players develop biologically at the same pace, and two, each player is put in different environments (linemates, offensive ability of club, junior experience, depth of team ect) which allow them to produce or not.

Player progression is not fixed on a certain variance, it is dependent on each player and situation.

The fact that he got 17, and 30 points respectively in his first two seasons is more of an indication of progress rather than what age he did so at. If he gets somewhere around 45-50 points next season, his chances of reaching a PPG status at some time of his career increase, or vice versa if he doesn't.
I'll save you the time. I don't ask questions I don't already know answers to. Kesler and Ribeiro based on the 70+ point centers of last year.

Eller has worse statistics at same age than Bolland. Honestly, that's his upside.

Obviously constant improvement leads to a certain level of production that will be PPG status but realistically it ain't happening. People are so fixated on it and I really don't understand why. Historically there's no statistical reason to believe he'll explode. It's like Pouliot, the talent was there and he improved with us but there's limitations. People need to keep their expectations in check because this guy won't end up a 1st line center and if he hits 70+ points consistently with two-way play he's a franchise center. I know it sounds all nice and dandy in theory "1st line production with two=way ability" but when you sit back and think about it, that's huge shoes to fill and absolutely unfair to Eller to even suggest that as few guys in the league are capable of it.


Last edited by LyricalLyricist: 01-16-2012 at 02:40 PM.
LyricalLyricist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:37 PM
  #41
Watsatheo
Error 503 Service
 
Watsatheo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,728
vCash: 500
Eller is being given a lot of responsibility this year. Sure no PP time but he's getting good playing time especially compared to last season. Some people expect him to be good right away, just let him develop.

Watsatheo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:44 PM
  #42
Hank Scorpio
Registered User
 
Hank Scorpio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 473
vCash: 500
When Canada played Denmark at the WJC there was an interesting comment made about the Danish players. A lot of them are very offensive minded and, often, willing to sacrifice defense to take a risk offensively. As such, a lot of the coaching they receive focuses on paying attention to detail of defense.

This stuck with me because it reminded me a lot of the type of player Eller is and the type of player we (the organization) want him to be. It's always been clear that (outside of finish) the offensive skills are there and the better the quality of wingers, the more Eller has been able to produce. That being said, a lot of this season and all of last season has about teaching Eller to pay attention to defense and I think this is why he ends up riding the bench from time to time-- he gets away from the defensive side of the game and the coaching staff want him mindful of it.

Hank Scorpio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:49 PM
  #43
Et le But
Moderator
 
Et le But's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: New York
Country: Argentina
Posts: 17,915
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Scorpio View Post
When Canada played Denmark at the WJC there was an interesting comment made about the Danish players. A lot of them are very offensive minded and, often, willing to sacrifice defense to take a risk offensively. As such, a lot of the coaching they receive focuses on paying attention to detail of defense.

This stuck with me because it reminded me a lot of the type of player Eller is and the type of player we (the organization) want him to be. It's always been clear that (outside of finish) the offensive skills are there and the better the quality of wingers, the more Eller has been able to produce. That being said, a lot of this season and all of last season has about teaching Eller to pay attention to defense and I think this is why he ends up riding the bench from time to time-- he gets away from the defensive side of the game and the coaching staff want him mindful of it.
They Mads.

Et le But is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 02:56 PM
  #44
overlords
Hfboards
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Trolling Brian Wilde
Posts: 26,411
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
70+ point means 71 and above. Plekanec hit 70.

Plekanec>>Eller.

The real answer if you look at last year's 70 or more point centers is maybe Kesler and Ribeiro. They are the only two in the top 20 scoring for centers that fit his career path even a little bit. The top 20 is guys 62 points and up btw. Eller's career path matches(a little bit 2 of them. I think that shows historically, it's not happening.

I don't understand though. It's overrating the guy big time. Only 10 guys got over 70 points last year, 10. That includes 1 dimensional offensive centers. Here we are thinking Eller will be a two-way 70+ center? uh...no.



I'll save you the time. I don't ask questions I don't already know answers to. Kesler and Ribeiro based on the 70+ point centers of last year.

Eller has worse statistics at same age than Bolland. Honestly, that's his upside.

Obviously constant improvement leads to a certain level of production that will be PPG status but realistically it ain't happening. People are so fixated on it and I really don't understand why. Historically there's no statistical reason to believe he'll explode. It's like Pouliot, the talent was there and he improved with us but there's limitations. People need to keep their expectations in check because this guy won't end up a 1st line center and if he hits 70+ points consistently with two-way play he's a franchise center. I know it sounds all nice and dandy in theory "1st line production with two=way ability" but when you sit back and think about it, that's huge shoes to fill and absolutely unfair to Eller to even suggest that as few guys in the league are capable of it.
You're not making much sense here. First you try to rely on statistical projections and even dismiss my example because it's 1 point off or 2 points off. Then you go on to say that pleks > eller. What stats project that? If anything, Eller is projecting as a plekanec+. You also can't ignore the size difference, which isn't the be all, end all of hockey player attributes, but definitely helps when you're a two way center.

There's a good chance he won't hit those numbers, but there are certain players where I wouldn't want to rule out any possibilities for. I think we've got one in Eller.

overlords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 03:14 PM
  #45
EllertoKostitsynGoal
Registered User
 
EllertoKostitsynGoal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Mtl
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,055
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post

Let me ask you a question. How many 21-22 year old centers who made 17 points followed by 30ish points at 22-23 year olds became 70+ point centers?

He has great 3rd line C potential and he may become a 2nd line center, that's possible. 1st line? I really don't see it.

I really don't consider Eller a great 3rd line center at this point either. I think he has a few years to go before he can be a dominant 3rd line center. I liken his potential more to a Bolland than a Staal. If I may add his, Bolland's career history at same age is better than eller's as well.
ES points? Mike Richards, Mikko Koivu, Ryan Kesler, Loui Eriksson (is a winger but fits the two way mold to a T), Tomas Plekanec and some who haven't reached 70 points (but did reach 60 pts) but are still considered good top 6 players : David Backes and Travis Zajac. Probably missing some as well. All two-way players who sometimes tend to progress more slowly than purely offensive ones but in those kind of players what you usually want to see constant progress in all aspect of the game even while not putting up the points and constant involvment in the play over huge offensive flashes followed by long period of invisibility.

EllertoKostitsynGoal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 03:27 PM
  #46
EllertoKostitsynGoal
Registered User
 
EllertoKostitsynGoal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Mtl
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,055
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by overlords View Post
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=56385

Eller also seems to have that same great attitude and work ethic.
Like I said earlier, that's one of the main reason why I have huge amount of faith in the kid. His raw skills mixed with his desire to get better make it pretty hard to not believe in him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
70+ point means 71 and above. Plekanec hit 70.

Plekanec>>Eller.

The real answer if you look at last year's 70 or more point centers is maybe Kesler and Ribeiro. They are the only two in the top 20 scoring for centers that fit his career path even a little bit. The top 20 is guys 62 points and up btw. Eller's career path matches(a little bit 2 of them. I think that shows historically, it's not happening.

I don't understand though. It's overrating the guy big time. Only 10 guys got over 70 points last year, 10. That includes 1 dimensional offensive centers. Here we are thinking Eller will be a two-way 70+ center? uh...no.



I'll save you the time. I don't ask questions I don't already know answers to. Kesler and Ribeiro based on the 70+ point centers of last year.

Eller has worse statistics at same age than Bolland. Honestly, that's his upside.

Obviously constant improvement leads to a certain level of production that will be PPG status but realistically it ain't happening. People are so fixated on it and I really don't understand why. Historically there's no statistical reason to believe he'll explode. It's like Pouliot, the talent was there and he improved with us but there's limitations. People need to keep their expectations in check because this guy won't end up a 1st line center and if he hits 70+ points consistently with two-way play he's a franchise center. I know it sounds all nice and dandy in theory "1st line production with two=way ability" but when you sit back and think about it, that's huge shoes to fill and absolutely unfair to Eller to even suggest that as few guys in the league are capable of it.
65 points would be just fine too, alot of it will depent on PP production. Like I said, I believe he has the talent to eventually outscore first lines in ES matchups ala Plekanec. The plus is that his physical tools could make him an even more complete player.

As for Pouliot, his problem was exactly what I said I didn't like seeing above. Offence in bunches followed by complete invisibility (or becoming a liability in Pouliot's case), that's not what you can call constant progression.

EllertoKostitsynGoal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 03:30 PM
  #47
LyricalLyricist
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,503
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by overlords View Post
You're not making much sense here. First you try to rely on statistical projections and even dismiss my example because it's 1 point off or 2 points off. Then you go on to say that pleks > eller. What stats project that? If anything, Eller is projecting as a plekanec+. You also can't ignore the size difference, which isn't the be all, end all of hockey player attributes, but definitely helps when you're a two way center.

There's a good chance he won't hit those numbers, but there are certain players where I wouldn't want to rule out any possibilities for. I think we've got one in Eller.
Ignoring the size difference is actually favourable for those who disagree with me. We can say Eller is 6'2 so he can be better than Plek. I see it as, despite being bigger than Plekanec, he hasn't outclassed Plekanec at any point.

If we look historically and try to compare the two, it's very difficult as when Plek was in AHL, Eller was in NHL. It wasn't a matter of Eller getting there faster, just that the lockout held Plekanec back.

The only real comparable is comparing last year. Eller at 21-22 had 17 points in the NHL. Plekanec at same age had .89 points in AHL, a number that Eller would've likely matched or got close to.

After that, the lockout occured and it's really tough to compare their career paths going forward and statistically a case can be made than Eller is on same career path as him. Another case can be made that Bolland is better than Eller statistically. Numbers don't mean everything but I will say this. I find Jordan Staal significantly better offensively and defensively than Eller. If Eller has 70+ point potential than what does Staal have, 90 point potential? If it seems unrealistic, it's because it is. Eller is a 50(as an average) max. He may hit 55, he may hit 60, but over the course of his career i'd be shocked if he has over 50 points per game average. If I'm wrong, i'll GLADLY admit it and be thrilled in doing so, but putting out numbers is all fine and dandy but Plekanec has 5 20 or more goal seasons in a row. Maybe 6 if he picks it up in 2nd half.

Let's compare the facts here. Eller is at 15:21 per game average. In Plekanec's comparable year after the lockout he played 13:15 min per game average.

The year after Plekanec averaged 15:58 min per game and finished with 20 goals 47 points(he turned 24 during the season). Yet, Eller at 15:21 per game at a younger age isn't being set free? Fact of the matter, if Eller gets 17-18 min per game next year and hits 50 points it still isn't comparable as Plekanec did it with significantly less TOI/G. Eller will turn 24 during july 1st to july 1st season next year, Although I will say he's half a year off because of the months they are born in and should have half a year extra to prove himself. Basically, Eller has to pop a 20 goal 50 point pace with less than 16 min per game in one of the next 1.5 years to show he's even at Plekanec's pace to begin with. 25 goals and 60 points to show he's Plekanec+. Once he does that, I'll reconsider.

Again, their history is very tough to match because of the circumstances but I guess only time will tell but I'm not sold on this 1st line center or better than Plekanec business.

I think it's important I say this or i'll be replying to people all day. It's a matter of opinion. IMO, I don't see it and despite looking at the exceptions like Plekanec, there's more people who have NOT leaped to 60-70 point status. It's nice to point out guys who did it, but it's not reflective of the true probability. That's how I see it.


Last edited by LyricalLyricist: 01-16-2012 at 03:42 PM.
LyricalLyricist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 03:37 PM
  #48
Miller Time
Registered User
 
Miller Time's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 8,290
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
I think I agree with this. Zubrus is a very good comparison. Lots of Devils fans are big fans of his, even if he never put up any big numbers. The same could be said of Eller. Lots of Habs fans like him for his play, and people who just look at his stat line miss the point completely.

He'll probably top out as a very good third liner who can do spot duty on a second line, with streaky scoring here and there.

As for how he's handled, I'd like to see him given consistent time with skill players (or with Kostitsyn and Moen, since they have good chemistry). Cunneyworth's been doing that, so I can't really complain.
offensively, I see him as being somewhere btw Zubure (career best-60pts, career average 41pts/82 games) and Plekanec (career best 70pts, avg 54pts/82g).

defensively it remains to be seen how he continues to develop, but like both Zubrus/Plekanec, I think he has the temperament and skills to be a very good/reliable player defensively.


Confidence and execution is what mostly separates the guys with skill who "do" and the guys who "don't", and I think to a degree, the way he's been used in montreal thus far hasn't been particularly conducive to building his confidence... I'd like to see him get a little more leeway with mistakes, a little more opportunity to "bounce back" and make up for it instead of getting glued to the pine... while it can be useful to "teach" with the stick, the evidence overwhelmingly shows that the carrot is more effective (or, more so with recent studies, eliminating the carrot/stick approach all together).


most importantly, I hope that fans (and management) keep very well aware that he's just 22, and that this is only his 3rd full season of North American professional hockey.

adapting to N.A hockey is one thing, adapting to playing an 80 game schedule is another... even with players who grew up in N.A, it's not unheard of for skilled -but relatively unproductive, players to hit a breakthrough moment where things come together... I wouldn't be surprised in the least if, in the next season or two, he had a pretty significant breakthrough that changed the conversation completely (not all that unlike Pleks 69pt season, which prior to even the more optimistic fans of his didn't really expect).

Miller Time is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 03:45 PM
  #49
Andy
Registered User
 
Andy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 19,587
vCash: 500
Eller always reminded me of a Malholtra/Zubrus type player. So for me, he's developing as expected. If he ends up being a 2nd liner that pots 50-60 a year, that's a bonus for me.

Eller will probably end up being a 35-45 point two-way centerman and that is not a bad thing, every team needs someone like that.

Andy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2012, 03:53 PM
  #50
bpoulsen
Registered User
 
bpoulsen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Glostrup
Country: Denmark
Posts: 551
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to bpoulsen
Talking of Eller ... I'm in Montreal to do a story on Eller ... To shoot pictures and do a story ... I was at the two games this weekend and wanted to share the pictures with you guys It's a slideshow with audio in it .. The Ottawa game has the intro of the starting lineup and national anthem. Second one just a quick bit of the intro and an interview with Lars in danish .. So just ignore that

http://rnn.dk/gallery/mtl-ott_140112/
http://rnn.dk/gallery/mtl-nyr_150112/

bpoulsen is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:13 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.