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Why John Tavares is good, not great

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Old
01-17-2012, 10:31 PM
  #51
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I'm pretty sure this guy is a Caps fan (he counts scoring chances for them), I wonder what he thinks now.

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01-17-2012, 10:40 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PWJunior View Post
I saw Moneyball the other day and this Greenberg fellow reminds me of that. Doesn't really watch the games, just looks at stats. Moneyball was flawed at it's core, just like this guy's metric that he's defending.

Right away, ranking Toews ahead of Crosby in his initial article... seriously? Toews is a fabulous player, but better than Sid? Tukka Rask at #5?

Go back to accounting or statistics and leave the hockey analysis to people who actually WATCH the game and understand it.
Did we watch the same film? Moneyball was an indictment on how barebones and dumb MLB "scouting" was at the time, ESPECIALLY compared to statistics

Hockey obviously is a harder to track stats because baseball outcomes are more independent.

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01-17-2012, 10:43 PM
  #53
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We realized we are wasting our time on a hack? Anyone who can't respect Tavares for what he is shouldn't be doing any writing.

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01-17-2012, 10:49 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by malPHONEY View Post
Did we watch the same film? Moneyball was an indictment on how barebones and dumb MLB "scouting" was at the time, ESPECIALLY compared to statistics

Hockey obviously is a harder to track stats because baseball outcomes are more independent.
My reference to Moneyball was how Billy Beane basically reduced the game of baseball to pure statistics with almost no regard for the nuances of the game. The A's didn't play small ball, no stolen bases, etc.

Statistics obviously play a big role in sports, but it should not be the ONLY criteria for judging a player. There is a lot more to any sport than just the numbers. This guy Greenberg is essentially doing the same thing.

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01-17-2012, 11:02 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by PWJunior View Post
My reference to Moneyball was how Billy Beane basically reduced the game of baseball to pure statistics with almost no regard for the nuances of the game. The A's didn't play small ball, no stolen bases, etc.
And it was a damn good strategy. A perennial contender with no money to spend, no problem with that. The only reason why Beane's A's aren't the same anymore is because of efficient markets. Walks and Home Runs are good, everybody caught on.

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Statistics obviously play a big role in sports, but it should not be the ONLY criteria for judging a player. There is a lot more to any sport than just the numbers. This guy Greenberg is essentially doing the same thing.
I agree with you in hockey, a more team oriented sport, but not baseball. Statistics are by far the best way to judge a player, unless we are talking prospect projection.

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01-18-2012, 02:07 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by malPHONEY View Post
And it was a damn good strategy. A perennial contender with no money to spend, no problem with that. The only reason why Beane's A's aren't the same anymore is because of efficient markets. Walks and Home Runs are good, everybody caught on.



I agree with you in hockey, a more team oriented sport, but not baseball. Statistics are by far the best way to judge a player, unless we are talking prospect projection.
Yeah this. And the key to remember is that Moneybal isn't the stats used but the concept that their are inneficiencies in the sports industry that can be exploited. By taking advantage of the overvalueing of RBI's, W's, ect. Beane was able to assemble quality teams without paying top dollar.

Most teams in the NHL use advanced stats too, some are way beyond Corsi which has its flaws and is dated. Its the nature of the game, you need too. Journalists can't tell stories with numbers, so they talk up intangibles. Fans eat it up, and you end up with the debate.

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01-18-2012, 02:49 AM
  #57
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Articles are written about players for two reasons: 1) Because the player is great. 2) Because the player is horrible. Articles aren't written about good or pretty good players. This guy's a Caps fan? Maybe he doesn't like that Ovechkin's on pace for 66 points after an 85 point season, while Tavares is on pace for 81 points at the age of 21 on a much lesser talented team.

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01-18-2012, 06:38 AM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by islesfan3991 View Post
http://twitter.com/ngreenberg

People have been teeing of on him a lot. But he keeps using his "excuses" for why Tavares isn't "great". His latest one?

"Isles are dominating #Caps tonight, but Tavares has still been on the ice for one less shot-for at net than against during even-str."

This is his reason why JT isn't a good two way player.
I like how he uses the made of stat of "shot at net" rather than Shots on Goal.

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01-18-2012, 09:29 AM
  #59
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It's fairly ridiculous to judge John Tavares and Tyler Seguin by their first seasons in the league when they are quite obviously on another level now.

It's the same line of thinking that makes Mark Streit the best offensive defenseman in the league, even if he isn't (even) the same player as pre-injury.

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01-18-2012, 02:04 PM
  #60
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Lets get down to business. 1st ESPN is just downright awful! I stopped watching it about 15 years ago when it became open mic night at Dangerfield's. Unfortunately we cant see the whole list because everyone on this board is smart enough not to be a "insider" and i thank you all for that. Someone did post that he is ranked 23 in a tsn poll but they also have Ovechkin at 66 and Kovalchuk at 58 so please dont use that poll as any reference. The truth is (as many of you have wrote) this is like the chef at Papa John's writing a article about the best pizza in the world. What does he know about pizza and what is this guys credentials on rating hockey players? All the "bloggers" probably do this solely on the hopes people start talking about them which obviously he did a excellent job of. We have to worry about our on ice team and how well we do and then we can watch idiots like this eat their crow!

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01-18-2012, 03:04 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by scott99 View Post
I don't have a problem with the title of this thread. Is John Tavares GREAT ? I can't call him great just yet. To me, when I think of GREAT players in the NHL, I think of Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stamkos and the Sedins. Tavares is not at their level, just yet. Is John Tavares good ? At this point, I'd say he's Very Good, heading towards Great. Not just there yet. That's just my humble opinion. And you'd be hard pressed to find a bigger JT fan than me. I will say, he is definitely one of the top 50 players overall, and definitely in the top 25 under 2 years old. The kid is freaking 21 on one of the worst teams in the NHL. In time, he could be an all time great. We shall see. But it sure is fun watching it unfold.
I have to agree with this. I'm not gonna get all butt -hurt because some numnuts on ESPN the joke decides to manufacture his own metric and then tells us what we see with our own eyes is wrong because of his metric.
However, if classifying JT as "good not great" is the question, I would take JT's own comments that he wants to be an "elite" player in this league. That is a desire, so he does not feel he is there yet. If "elite" equates to great, then he his not yet great by his own admission. By my eyes, he is sure on the fast track to getting there.

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01-18-2012, 11:52 PM
  #62
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All this does is prove that a writer can put up an opinion without actually having watched the player for more than a few minutes.

You all respected him too much, IMO. I could care less what a blind man thinks of a rainbow. Apply that logic here.

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01-19-2012, 09:07 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by 10 Min Misconduct View Post
We realized we are wasting our time on a hack? Anyone who can't respect Tavares for what he is shouldn't be doing any writing.
Yep. The guy's a twit.

I did a search to see what the other guy has written. When your own fanbase creates a thread like this, it speaks volumes.

http://fans.capitals.nhl.com/communi...oying-as-hell/

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01-19-2012, 08:51 PM
  #64
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Another quiet game for the not so great Tavares.

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01-19-2012, 09:03 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by IslesFanatic View Post
Another quiet game for the not so great Tavares.
Yeah, he doesn't drive the play at all. He's been just a passenger to Moulson and Parenteau/Okposo all season. According to a new metric that I developed, he ranks slightly above average for an NHL center.

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01-19-2012, 09:08 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by PWJunior View Post
Yeah, he doesn't drive the play at all. He's been just a passenger to Moulson and Parenteau/Okposo all season. According to a new metric that I developed, he ranks slightly above average for an NHL center.
Hey, hey, hey...Thats WAYYYY to generous by my measure


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01-19-2012, 09:08 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IslesFanatic View Post
Another quiet game for the not so great Tavares.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PWJunior View Post
Yeah, he doesn't drive the play at all. He's been just a passenger to Moulson and Parenteau/Okposo all season. According to a new metric that I developed, he ranks slightly above average for an NHL center.
He's a bum. Package him for a few sticks and a bag or 2 of pucks. No room for a guy like this on any team. Should be in the ECHL.

Scrub!



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01-19-2012, 09:40 PM
  #68
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Man, he could have had six points tonight against the Flyers. Stellar goaltending by Bobrovsky. Tavares was robbed at least 3 times. I'm glad he doesn't let it get to him, two brilliant passes on the Moulson and Streit goals.

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01-19-2012, 09:57 PM
  #69
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Who would think Tavares is good, not great?

Ranger fans.

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01-20-2012, 02:37 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by cjdv16 View Post
Who would think Tavares is good, not great?

Ranger fans.
Actually, Rangers fans are well aware of the ability of Tavares. It isn't in the Atlantic Division where doubters live!

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01-20-2012, 09:54 AM
  #71
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Actually, Rangers fans are well aware of the ability of Tavares. It isn't in the Atlantic Division where doubters live!
True that.

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Old
01-20-2012, 03:53 PM
  #72
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JT gets better and better every game. His work ethic will keep him getting even better in the off season. Last season he was weak on his feet and came back strong this year. Next year he'll be a better scorer and come back stronger. I've been an islander fan my whole life (34 years) and I could not be happier that this kid is here. Watching him play just doesn't get old.

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01-20-2012, 03:57 PM
  #73
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I gave this a little bit more thought, so here it goes...

Seeing now what some of the microstats focus on, they'll need to look at this to see the bigger picture of what is actually going on:

Line Scoring Chances For/60 vs. Line Scoring Chances Against/60 while Tavares is o the ice.

With PAP @5-on-5
With KO @5-on-5

That's what I'd like to see. Shots at the net is an almost worthless stat in the NHL because every shot does not have an equal chance to score. A microstat that shows shots within a specific scoring area for/against (which is possible since shot locations are now recorded) is far more useful. I believe they're actually working on that microstat, if they don't have it somewhere already. Of course, how good of a shot a player has is invisible in that statistic. Not every shot even from the same exact location is equal. With statistics, you have to always make sure you're looking at what is being left out from the analysis before you consider a stat meaningful, or consider how meaningful a stat is.

Moving on...The Moulson-JT-PAP line was only ever good at 5-on-5 versus weaker or even physical matchups. JT was physically weaker in his first two seasons. There are a lot of statistics that will probably show that his 5-on-5 game was weak in the 1st season and relatively weak last season. People often rely too heavily on +/- sometimes, but that statistic is quite often too easily dismissed, as well. It paints a pretty good picture of John Tavares this season compared to his first two. It doesn't paint a good picture of the improvement in JT's play from Season 1 to Season 2.

Obviously, seeing the difference in JT's physical strength shows that it's idiotic to group Tavares' first 3 seasons together. Anyone who looked at 3-5 games of footage from each season would see the physical differences in JT's play.

The Islanders were outshot badly against Philly, but does anyone think Philly had more prime scoring chances? If quality of scoring chance can be quantified, what story does that tell? How did the chances for/against differ in Period 1 and 2 versus Period 3?

Be wary of the "expert" who spouts out half-truths as immutable facts or applies more worth to words or studies than they deserve.

,
Mitch

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Old
01-20-2012, 11:29 PM
  #74
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I was thinking about JT's skating improvement this year and something hit me. Blake Comeau may have been very instrumental in what we're seeing today.

There was a game late in the season last year where JT was streaking down the right wing entering the offensive zone. Comeau gave him a little nudge from behind with his stick and suddenly it was as if JT had a turbo button. He separated from the defender(s) and had a semi-breakaway. Didn't finish unfortunately.

After that in last year's WC, JT had a couple of breakaways where he displayed the extra gear to beat the defenders that we hadn't ever seen before. We're seeing this season with increasing regularity where he just hits the hole and takes off. In some crazy way, Blake Comeau may have been the catalyst to the incredible improvement in his skating.

Yeah, I've had a couple tonight.

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Old
01-20-2012, 11:33 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by PWJunior View Post
I was thinking about JT's skating improvement this year and something hit me. Blake Comeau may have been very instrumental in what we're seeing today.

There was a game late in the season last year where JT was streaking down the right wing entering the offensive zone. Comeau gave him a little nudge from behind with his stick and suddenly it was as if JT had a turbo button. He separated from the defender(s) and had a semi-breakaway. Didn't finish unfortunately.

After that in last year's WC, JT had a couple of breakaways where he displayed the extra gear to beat the defenders that we hadn't ever seen before. We're seeing this season with increasing regularity where he just hits the hole and takes off. In some crazy way, Blake Comeau may have been the catalyst to the incredible improvement in his skating.

Yeah, I've had a couple tonight.
Either cut yourself off or keep drinking.

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