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01-23-2012, 06:22 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by lanky View Post
It's just one tournament and it's a tournament for 19 year olds. So many people were disappointed with Couturier's performance at the tourny last year and his draft stock fell as a result. He has turned out pretty well so far. It just doesn't seem fair to me to criticize a 17 year old for a bad performance at the WJC.

Anyways Hertl was great, definitely more effective than Faksa. But when I make judgments on prospects I put a lot of weight on skating ability and in this one respect I think Faksa is superior. I've barely seen either one of them play so my opinions are based mostly on stuff floating around the internet.
I didn't see skating as a strength for either kid. It's just one tourny, though. Maybe Faksa had food poisoning, or something. He looked like it.

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02-01-2012, 09:11 AM
  #102
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Welp. I'm just about on board for looking toward the draft. I'm not ready to tank (and I don't think they will) because of how detrimental it would be to guys like Boedker and Ekman-Larsson, but I'm looking forward to the Coyotes moving some vets at the deadline to grab some extra picks for a deep draft and make room for more playing time for young guys (Miele et al).

At this point, I'm expecting the Coyotes to pick no higher than 9th and no lower than 14th. I'd be fine with Girgensons, Hertl, Faksa or any of the top Swedes (Forsberg, Aberg or Collberg). Matteau and Kerdiles are a couple guys who could rise, too, and if the Coyotes end up with a late first, I've got my eyes on Charles Hudon, Martin Frk and possibly Cristoval Nieves.

I'll stake my claim now that Brendan Gaunce isn't someone I want. He strikes me the same way Mark McNeill did last year and guys like Jack Skille and Kyle Chipchura have in years past. Some players are just a little too safe.

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02-01-2012, 09:25 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by PhoPhan View Post
Welp. I'm just about on board for looking toward the draft. I'm not ready to tank (and I don't think they will) because of how detrimental it would be to guys like Boedker and Ekman-Larsson, but I'm looking forward to the Coyotes moving some vets at the deadline to grab some extra picks for a deep draft and make room for more playing time for young guys (Miele et al).

At this point, I'm expecting the Coyotes to pick no higher than 9th and no lower than 14th. I'd be fine with Girgensons, Hertl, Faksa or any of the top Swedes (Forsberg, Aberg or Collberg). Matteau and Kerdiles are a couple guys who could rise, too, and if the Coyotes end up with a late first, I've got my eyes on Charles Hudon, Martin Frk and possibly Cristoval Nieves.

I'll stake my claim now that Brendan Gaunce isn't someone I want. He strikes me the same way Mark McNeill did last year and guys like Jack Skille and Kyle Chipchura have in years past. Some players are just a little too safe.
I hate drafting the "safe" players. To me that means they'll end up a third line grinder. You sign "safe" players, you don't draft them. I want to go for the home run pick.

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02-01-2012, 09:33 AM
  #104
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Pho, we are at the ninth pick right now. If we decide to move guys like Whitney, Doan, and Aucoin to contenders so they have a shot at the Cup, we will certainly plummet down the standings even further. With the ownership situation guaranteed to remain unresolved at the deadline and with our top players over 35 all on expiring contracts, they may want to go chase a cup. Even Doan. Say we continue at current pace and are 9th to last in 11 games. Then we jettison Doan, Whitney, and Aucoin. How many of our last twenty games will we win? How many points will we collect? I'm guessing ten out of forty points. We can get bad in a hurry. We can call up Miele, Pouliot, and Rundblad. Give Boedker, Brule, Summers, etc more minutes. Give Smith way more nights off and put LaBarbera in for the shelling.

Hell, we could end up with Grigorenko or Galchenyuk.

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02-01-2012, 09:39 AM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mitch27 View Post
I hate drafting the "safe" players. To me that means they'll end up a third line grinder. You sign "safe" players, you don't draft them. I want to go for the home run pick.
This is the year of the injury amongst forward prospects. May result in a player falling who otherwise would have gone in a lottery pick.

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02-01-2012, 10:36 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by rt View Post
Pho, we are at the ninth pick right now. If we decide to move guys like Whitney, Doan, and Aucoin to contenders so they have a shot at the Cup, we will certainly plummet down the standings even further. With the ownership situation guaranteed to remain unresolved at the deadline and with our top players over 35 all on expiring contracts, they may want to go chase a cup. Even Doan. Say we continue at current pace and are 9th to last in 11 games. Then we jettison Doan, Whitney, and Aucoin. How many of our last twenty games will we win? How many points will we collect? I'm guessing ten out of forty points. We can get bad in a hurry. We can call up Miele, Pouliot, and Rundblad. Give Boedker, Brule, Summers, etc more minutes. Give Smith way more nights off and put LaBarbera in for the shelling.

Hell, we could end up with Grigorenko or Galchenyuk.
I'm not so sure I agree. Maybe the team overperformed earlier this season, but they were 3-5-4 in January, and I don't think that's quite what this team is, either. The reality probably lies somewhere in between, and without prolonged injuries to the likes of Smith and Hanzal, the second half should be better than the first.

Even if Maloney goes for a full firesale, I don't think he'll move more than four or five guys at the absolute most, and even at that extreme, just how bad do you think Tippett would let this team get?

Realistically, I could see them slipping down to 8th or maybe 7th, but I can't see them being any worse than that. It's just not going to happen with this coach.

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02-01-2012, 10:51 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by PhoPhan View Post
I'm not so sure I agree. Maybe the team overperformed earlier this season, but they were 3-5-4 in January, and I don't think that's quite what this team is, either. The reality probably lies somewhere in between, and without prolonged injuries to the likes of Smith and Hanzal, the second half should be better than the first.

Even if Maloney goes for a full firesale, I don't think he'll move more than four or five guys at the absolute most, and even at that extreme, just how bad do you think Tippett would let this team get?

Realistically, I could see them slipping down to 8th or maybe 7th, but I can't see them being any worse than that. It's just not going to happen with this coach.
We are due for a winning streak of some sort. Of course the timing of that streak will largely determine if we sell off the Whitney's and Roszival's on this team or if we just stick with the status quo with a small pickup at the deadline. The key with last nights loss is we start to look more and more like "also-ran's". If we don't manage to start winning in the next few games Maloney goes into sell mode. Last night was a key game and we didn't deliver.

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02-01-2012, 10:53 AM
  #108
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Doesn't Whitney have an NTC? Didn't he refuse to waive his in Carolina?

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02-01-2012, 10:57 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Blubba Jenkins View Post
Doesn't Whitney have an NTC? Didn't he refuse to waive his in Carolina?
That was because LA wouldn't agree to a multi-year extension. Phoenix was the only organization to offer Whitney a 2 year deal which is why he signed with us.

I think Phoenix will be very eager to re-sign Whitney to whatever he wants (who cares about tagging when you are a cap min team) in the off-season and assurances can be made prior to a deal. I suspect Whitney can get another 2 year deal with Phoenix.

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02-01-2012, 11:01 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Blubba Jenkins View Post
Doesn't Whitney have an NTC? Didn't he refuse to waive his in Carolina?
Yes, he has a full NMC.

I think it's a question of whether Phoenix wants to re-sign him or not. Given it's the last year of his contract I could see him waiving the NMC to join a playoff contender.

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02-01-2012, 11:28 AM
  #111
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I remember Whitney saying recently he wouldn't mind getting one more shot at a cup. I don't think it'd be a problem trading him to Detroit / Vancouver / San Jose / Boston / New York / Philly. I'm just skeptical about getting a great return. Something like an AHL project and a third rounder wouldn't surprise me. A second rounder would be amazing.

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02-01-2012, 12:52 PM
  #112
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He's putting up .85ppg on a team with no tools to work with and a defensive system. Put him on the B's and he's 1.10ppg. Plus he's got a ring. Guy makes your existing players better. He's the ideal deadline acquisition. He's the consummate pro and never slumps. Just consistently excellent.

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02-01-2012, 01:40 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by rt View Post
He's putting up .85ppg on a team with no tools to work with and a defensive system. Put him on the B's and he's 1.10ppg. Plus he's got a ring. Guy makes your existing players better. He's the ideal deadline acquisition. He's the consummate pro and never slumps. Just consistently excellent.
Oh, I love him, he's beaten all my expectations by a large margin. I'm just trying to find an example of a 35+ years-old veteran rental that fetched more than a second-rounder, and I can't think of any. Jason Arnott last year seems to be the closest comparable, and the return was a 2nd + Steckel.

I just can't imagine we'll get a 1st rounder for either Doan or Whitney unless it's conditional, based on playoff performance and/or signing a contract.

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02-01-2012, 01:54 PM
  #114
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If we go for a fire-sale, Vrbata is probably our MVP right now. Cheap 3-year contract, having a career season, smart 2-way player... his value should be as high as it's ever been, and probably ever will be.

Not that I want that necessarily, I really like the guy, but he definitely fits the 'buy low, sell high' model.

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02-01-2012, 02:02 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by PhoPhan View Post
I'm not so sure I agree. Maybe the team overperformed earlier this season, but they were 3-5-4 in January, and I don't think that's quite what this team is, either. The reality probably lies somewhere in between, and without prolonged injuries to the likes of Smith and Hanzal, the second half should be better than the first.

Even if Maloney goes for a full firesale, I don't think he'll move more than four or five guys at the absolute most, and even at that extreme, just how bad do you think Tippett would let this team get?

Realistically, I could see them slipping down to 8th or maybe 7th, but I can't see them being any worse than that. It's just not going to happen with this coach.
We've picked up 51% of our points thus far. Let's say we keep up that same pace for the next eleven games until the deadline. The playoffs will be completely unrealistic and we will need to look at selling. Say we move Doan for a pick, Whitney for a pick, and Aucoin for a pick. We cant get any decent value for Rozsival, Langkow, or Morris, so we just go ahead and call it a deadline.

Do you think we will still be able to pick up 51% of the final 40pts post deadline? Not a chance in hell. We would be absolutely lucky to get a third of those points. No offensive catalyst in Whitney no heart and soul, identity in Doan. The core of the veteran leadership gone, and an all too apparent white flag on the season. 35% of the remaining 40 points in those last twenty games would be a miracle. So let's say we get them. Just for arguments sake. If we go .51 in the 11 games previous to the deadline and .35 after the deadline, we will end up 77pts.

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02-01-2012, 02:03 PM
  #116
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If we go for a fire-sale, Vrbata is probably our MVP right now. Cheap 3-year contract, having a career season, smart 2-way player... his value should be as high as it's ever been, and probably ever will be.

Not that I want that necessarily, I really like the guy, but he definitely fits the 'buy low, sell high' model.
I would not trade him. No way.

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02-01-2012, 02:03 PM
  #117
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The closest comparable I can think of for Whitney is Mark Recchi, who went with a 2nd rounder to Boston for Martins Karsums and Matt Lashoff, both of whom I'd call "B" prospects at the time. Recchi had 45 points in 62 games at the time of the trade, which isn't far off from Whitney's pace, and both play the crafty veteran role well.

That said, looking at past precedent for deadline deals is usually a fool's errand. The market fluctuates so wildly year to year, and it only takes one team to lose its mind and throw everything off. If the Coyotes are sellers, I could see Whitney bringing back a late first and a decent prospect and I could see him fetching only a 3rd rounder. I could also see Maloney just hanging on to him and having him mentoring some of the younger guys. Miele especially is someone who could learn a ton from him.

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02-01-2012, 02:14 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by rt View Post
We've picked up 51% of our points thus far. Let's say we keep up that same pace for the next eleven games until the deadline. The playoffs will be completely unrealistic and we will need to look at selling. Say we move Doan for a pick, Whitney for a pick, and Aucoin for a pick. We cant get any decent value for Rozsival, Langkow, or Morris, so we just go ahead and call it a deadline.

Do you think we will still be able to pick up 51% of the final 40pts post deadline? Not a chance in hell. We would be absolutely lucky to get a third of those points. No offensive catalyst in Whitney no heart and soul, identity in Doan. The core of the veteran leadership gone, and an all too apparent white flag on the season. 35% of the remaining 40 points in those last twenty games would be a miracle. So let's say we get them. Just for arguments sake. If we go .51 in the 11 games previous to the deadline and .35 after the deadline, we will end up 77pts.
If you look at the eight teams currently ahead of us, and project their current pace, they will end up...

1. CBJ - 53pts
2. EDM - 70pts
3. CAR - 71pts
4. ANA - 75pts
5. MTL - 77pts
6. BUF - 77pts
7. NYI - 78pts
8. TBL - 80pts

Our 77pts would put us right in the mix for lotto.

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02-01-2012, 02:20 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by rt View Post
We've picked up 51% of our points thus far. Let's say we keep up that same pace for the next eleven games until the deadline. The playoffs will be completely unrealistic and we will need to look at selling. Say we move Doan for a pick, Whitney for a pick, and Aucoin for a pick. We cant get any decent value for Rozsival, Langkow, or Morris, so we just go ahead and call it a deadline.

Do you think we will still be able to pick up 51% of the final 40pts post deadline? Not a chance in hell. We would be absolutely lucky to get a third of those points. No offensive catalyst in Whitney no heart and soul, identity in Doan. The core of the veteran leadership gone, and an all too apparent white flag on the season. 35% of the remaining 40 points in those last twenty games would be a miracle. So let's say we get them. Just for arguments sake. If we go .51 in the 11 games previous to the deadline and .35 after the deadline, we will end up 77pts.
First, I think they'll pick up more than 51% of the points in the next 11 games. Maybe that's optimistic, but nothing I've seen from this team over the past few years tells me "51%" is where they should be.

Second, I have my doubts that Doan, Whitney and Aucoin all leave. But let's say they do. Do you really think it's a given that this team just falls off a cliff? There's still going to be a lot of vets on this team, and they'll probably pick up most of the extra minutes. If they have to call up Miele and guys like that, they're not just going to be handed playing time. Tippett would sooner give 45 minutes to Rusty Klesla than give 12 to a guy who hasn't earned it.

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02-01-2012, 02:28 PM
  #120
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I remember Whitney saying recently he wouldn't mind getting one more shot at a cup. I don't think it'd be a problem trading him to Detroit / Vancouver / San Jose / Boston / New York / Philly. I'm just skeptical about getting a great return. Something like an AHL project and a third rounder wouldn't surprise me. A second rounder would be amazing.
There are several cup contenders with cap room this year. If Boston and Detroit both really want him, we could get a bidding war going. I could see that as a definite possibility this year.

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02-01-2012, 03:21 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by PhoPhan View Post
First, I think they'll pick up more than 51% of the points in the next 11 games. Maybe that's optimistic, but nothing I've seen from this team over the past few years tells me "51%" is where they should be.

Second, I have my doubts that Doan, Whitney and Aucoin all leave. But let's say they do. Do you really think it's a given that this team just falls off a cliff? There's still going to be a lot of vets on this team, and they'll probably pick up most of the extra minutes. If they have to call up Miele and guys like that, they're not just going to be handed playing time. Tippett would sooner give 45 minutes to Rusty Klesla than give 12 to a guy who hasn't earned it.
Through fifty one games they have proved they are a fifty one percent team.

Yeah, I do think that losing Doan, Whitney and Aucoin would send this team completely off a cliff. Like worst team in the NHL post-deadline bad.

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02-01-2012, 03:35 PM
  #122
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Through fifty one games they have proved they are a fifty one percent team.

Yeah, I do think that losing Doan, Whitney and Aucoin would send this team completely off a cliff. Like worst team in the NHL post-deadline bad.
I'm 0-1 in avatar bets, but I'm willing to give it another go. What's the over/under?

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02-01-2012, 09:06 PM
  #123
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What a wimp. When it comes to frivolous wagers, real men bet at least $10,000. And that's just when there are other people around. You're a lightweight, that's what you are.

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02-01-2012, 10:47 PM
  #124
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Whitney may get the Coyotes an upgrade to one of their 2nds
Doan should fetch a 1st, Aucoin may have to be included
Don't know how much Rosival or Langkow would get the Coyotes if anything

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02-01-2012, 10:52 PM
  #125
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Whitney may get the Coyotes an upgrade to one of their 2nds
Doan should fetch a 1st, Aucoin may have to be included
Don't know how much Rosival or Langkow would get the Coyotes if anything
Honestly I don't know if it's worth the hassle of moving Whitney for anything less than a 1st. If it's just a late second coming our way I'd rather we just give him a 2 year extension now.

Rozsival gets at least a 2nd. He's a steady presence on the blueline if nothing else. If he didn't have the cap hit he'd have a lot of interest.

Doan would command an A Prospect + 1st type package. Maybe more. If Phoenix is staying at least another year he'll get an extension.

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