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Hockey Prospectus Predicts Rangers Can't Sustain Winning in 2nd Half of Season

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Old
01-31-2012, 12:18 AM
  #76
GarretJoseph
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Suck it. HP is a total waste of time. Don't even bother reading it.

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01-31-2012, 12:35 AM
  #77
truebluegoalie
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
"Unless he's this seasons Tim Thomas"

You mean we have to shelter his minutes and play a guy who's younger and just as good a ton of the time? ****ing ridiculous, enough of slobbing on Thomas' knob. He's hardly the standard for goaltending excellence. Guess the "SABR geniuses" forgot to account for the fact this is the best defense our goaltender has ever played behind.

Lost interest there. Hockey SABR is a joke. Like i've always said, they are horrendous at accounting for strong defense and great goaltending...which is what our team is built around.

I agree completely with Greg, here. Sure, will we regress? It's possible. But i'm sick of hockey SABR stats and their complete ignorance of other variables. Please, stick to baseball, where they're actually incredibly legitimate.
Yep, I saw that statement and threw up a little.

btw, anyone notice the other day as the all star game was closing out they were mentioning all the top teams in the league and who they thought would win each division? I didn't hear one peep from anyone about the Rangers. That is what I was talking about in the Boston PGT about how this team still gets very little respect.


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01-31-2012, 12:45 AM
  #78
Boyle Knows Santa
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Originally Posted by sousuffer View Post
I disagree about the offense...the +33 goal differential between the teams can be explained by five games: 6-0, 6-0, 7-0, 8-0, and 9-0.

We beat them.
We have more points than them.

Until otherwise proven, we are better.
Take out 5 games where they scored a lot of goals and didn't give up any and their goal differential goes down?!?! Who would have guessed!?!?

Weak argument at best. Their offense is definitely better than ours.

That being said. We can absolutely beat them in a 7 game series. Play a 7 game series against them 100 times and I wouldn't be surprised to see each team win 50.

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01-31-2012, 08:30 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Boyle Knows Santa View Post
Take out 5 games where they scored a lot of goals and didn't give up any and their goal differential goes down?!?! Who would have guessed!?!?

Weak argument at best. Their offense is definitely better than ours.

That being said. We can absolutely beat them in a 7 game series. Play a 7 game series against them 100 times and I wouldn't be surprised to see each team win 50.
I agree it's a weak argument, but outlier games don't indicate the true value of a teams' offense. Certain teams, when up 4-0, take off the gas and focus on a "prevent defense". Others go for 6-0 or 9-0. I don't know what kinds of teams NYR and Boston are with respect to this aspect, but I do feel like the goal differences are skewed somewhat by those games, even if it isn't by the factor that I initially claim. I would prefer to give the D credit for putting up a 0 in those games than the offense for putting up a 9. That being said, I also believe that the NYR defense is superior to Boston...they have a lower goals against per game and they have been in tighter games overall. Also, Lundqvist is better than Thomas this year, and I believe it's by more than the numbers show. Rask may be better than Biron, but come playoff time, that doesn't matter.

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01-31-2012, 09:09 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truebluegoalie View Post
Yep, I saw that statement and threw up a little.

btw, anyone notice the other day as the all star game was closing out they were mentioning all the top teams in the league and who they thought would win each division? I didn't hear one peep from anyone about the Rangers. That is what I was talking about in the Boston PGT about how this team still gets very little respect.
if you're talking about the nhl network, weekesie actually picked the rangers to go to the stanley cup finals against the hawks.

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01-31-2012, 11:46 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by sousuffer View Post
Also, just because a stat is harder for you to understand doesn't make it useless or "stupid". There will be improved ways of measuring factors towards winning hockey games in the future just as it happened in baseball....perhaps not to the same degree (due to individual battles in baseball that was brought up previously), but definitely moreso than before.
Careful on some things. I read Moneyball. I read Bill James. Lets' recall that Sabremetrics also pointed out that teh best thing that a baseball team can to is NOT to have a closer, but do it by commitee. A lesson that Theo Epstien learned the hard way.

Sabremetics also tell you that you should never bunt a runner over to 3rd base, because giving up an out is a no-no. yet, in the bottom of the 9th, bunting a runner over when there are no outs, makes sense. Sabremetrics also devalue the stolen base.

Point being, is that they are usefull as a tool, but certainly not a bible. Hockey is also not baseball. Goal scoring can go up or down, depending on what type of player that is on your line.

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01-31-2012, 11:59 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by True Blue View Post
Careful on some things. I read Moneyball. I read Bill James. Lets' recall that Sabremetrics also pointed out that teh best thing that a baseball team can to is NOT to have a closer, but do it by commitee. A lesson that Theo Epstien learned the hard way.

Sabremetics also tell you that you should never bunt a runner over to 3rd base, because giving up an out is a no-no. yet, in the bottom of the 9th, bunting a runner over when there are no outs, makes sense. Sabremetrics also devalue the stolen base.

Point being, is that they are usefull as a tool, but certainly not a bible. Hockey is also not baseball. Goal scoring can go up or down, depending on what type of player that is on your line.
This is a valid point...I'm simply stating that to fully DISMISS statistics is ignorant and thickheaded.

With respect to the bunting issue, I believe they have modified the "book" on bunting...there are actually two separate conditions now: the first is total runs scored per inning, and the second is probability of scoring exactly one run in an inning. Bunting someone to third with nobody out decreases runs per inning, but increases the chance of scoring exactly one run (the goal of bottom of the 9th situation where the game is tied). These adjustments to statistics "rules" is exactly the point of these analyses...to find an optimal way to quantify what we see. They're not always "correct". The methods are always improving. But to dismiss stats as stupid simply means the person dismissing them doesn't want to (or cannot intellectually) understand the actual concepts and arguments, so there is blanket dismissal.

Statistics based on scoring mechanisms (like those in moneyball) have led to amazing findings in cancer research and modeling of human systems...is someone really that ignorant (or naive) to believe that these same stats couldn't be at all useful in predicting outcomes of sport?

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01-31-2012, 12:54 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by sousuffer View Post
I agree completely...in baseball, they've tried to do this with the WAR stat, but I feel like it undervalues power hitters like Adam Dunn and overvalues fast players that can steal bases and field well like Brett Gardner. The problem with stats in hockey is the vast differences in eras, equipment, goaltending advances, defenseman blocking more shots, and many other fcators. Either way, statistics has ways to adjust for this in a way similar to park factor (Citifield is where homers go to die, where Citizens bank park is a bandbox). The key to any stat or metric is to identify the variables that contribute the most significant aspects to team success (as you said). This is similar to the "Wins" concept in baseball...you don't look to reproduce 100 RBI or 30 homers...you factor in TOTAL contribution and decide how to replace the wins that a player contributes. The key to assigning the value of intangibles (in addition to goals and assists) to wins is by looking at correlations between things like "hustle" plays and team success. Also interesting is assigning value to secondary assists, which in many cases, contribute nothing.

For instance, does a team that block a lot of shots correlate with team success? Or does it mean they spend too much time in their own zone and therefore NEEDS to block a lot of shots? I remember when the Rangers were terrible before the lockout, they always seemed to lead the "hits" category...all that seemed to mean is that they never had the puck and needed to hit people to try and get it back (their record reflected this).

In baseball, it was always thought that stolen bases and sacrifice bunts were critical to team success...after statistical analysis, it was shown that giving away outs (even to advance a player a base) almost NEVER benefits the team and is NOT good baseball (despite what every "baseball mind" would tell you). In addition, they found that your stolen base success rate needed to be a certain percentage (I believe it's 80%) before the team positively benefits from it. Just because "experts" from a sport tell you that specific actions are "playing the right way" doesn't mean they know what they're talking about. Again...it's anecdotal evidence...people remember a sac bunt that led to a walk-off win in the playoffs a lot more than unproductive sac-bunts that lead to nothing in a weekday regular season loss.

On a different note, "hockey experts" always give the Rangers credit for blocking shots. It would also be interesting to see whether or not Tortorella's "block all shots at all costs" mentality leads to increases in injuries (which obviously reduces overall future team success).

Personally I'm not a huge fan of having your "better" players being your main PK'ers..I wonder how much more energy guys like Cally and Dubi would have if they weren't also playing the PK.

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01-31-2012, 01:35 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by NHRangerfan View Post
Personally I'm not a huge fan of having your "better" players being your main PK'ers..I wonder how much more energy guys like Cally and Dubi would have if they weren't also playing the PK.
I agree with this also. I think killing penalties is the easiest of all hockey-related skills to master (hence the reason there are so many 4th liners that can kill penalties, but you don't see them lighting up the scoreboard or making amazing passes). It is one of the truly skills based mostly on hustle, toughness, and effort. It doesn't require speed, hands, a good shot or even good passing skills (although obviously they help. It requires only anticipation, "hockey sense", ability to pivot and change directions quickly, and ability to clear the puck by any means necessary. Good faceoff skills also help if you're a center. The Devils have always killed penalties the way I feel they should be killed - they use everyone as if they're rolling lines. They used 4th liners like Marshall, Brylin, and Rasmussen, they used smaller guys like Gionta and Gomez, and they used the "better" PK guys - defensive specialists like Madden, Pandolfo and Elias. In addition, they didn't block nearly as many shots (Brodeur actually hates when guys in front of him dive to block shots, so they pretty much get the hell out of the way so they don't cause deflections and screens).

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01-31-2012, 01:53 PM
  #85
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the devils have also been using parise and kovy this season. the hawks consistently use toews and hossa. the flyers use giroux. the kings use richards and kopy. the ducks use ryan. it doesn't matter how skilled you are if your coach thinks you can be an effective pk'er. in you're in good enough shape, an extra 2 minutes a night killing penalties shouldn't have an effect on you.

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01-31-2012, 03:15 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by sousuffer View Post
I agree with this also. I think killing penalties is the easiest of all hockey-related skills to master (hence the reason there are so many 4th liners that can kill penalties, but you don't see them lighting up the scoreboard or making amazing passes). It is one of the truly skills based mostly on hustle, toughness, and effort. It doesn't require speed, hands, a good shot or even good passing skills (although obviously they help. It requires only anticipation, "hockey sense", ability to pivot and change directions quickly, and ability to clear the puck by any means necessary. Good faceoff skills also help if you're a center.
Wow, you have absolutely no idea what good penalty killing takes. Skating ability is incredibly important on the PK for forwards. You need to be able to pressure the puck without throwing yourself wildly out of position, which takes skating ability. You need to be able to pivot very agilely, which takes skating ability. You don't necessarily need speed, but I didn't realize speed was the only hockey-related skating ability. You need to be able to react to your opponent smartly and you need defensive and spatial awareness, which are both far more advanced concepts than simply "anticipation, hustle, toughness, or effort." Reacting smartly can be trained into a person, for sure, but that person has to be receptive to it. Plenty of players are not. Defensive and spatial awareness are usually innate and unteachable. You allow the players who are best at these things to kill your penalties, no matter where they sit in your lineup.

Of course, you're right. Penalty killing is the easiest of all hockey-related skills to master. But only if you're talking about offensive hockey. Frankly, that's ridiculous.

Oh, and 4th liners in the NHL are in the top 1%, skill-wise, of all hockey players in the world. Just because they don't score at that level doesn't mean they don't have skill.

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02-08-2012, 12:42 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
4th liners in the NHL are in the top 1%, skill-wise, of all hockey players in the world. Just because they don't score at that level doesn't mean they don't have skill.
Maybe, but top 1% of the world doesn't always cut it in the NHL

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02-08-2012, 01:54 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
Wow, you have absolutely no idea what good penalty killing takes. Skating ability is incredibly important on the PK for forwards. You need to be able to pressure the puck without throwing yourself wildly out of position, which takes skating ability. You need to be able to pivot very agilely, which takes skating ability. You don't necessarily need speed, but I didn't realize speed was the only hockey-related skating ability. You need to be able to react to your opponent smartly and you need defensive and spatial awareness, which are both far more advanced concepts than simply "anticipation, hustle, toughness, or effort." Reacting smartly can be trained into a person, for sure, but that person has to be receptive to it. Plenty of players are not. Defensive and spatial awareness are usually innate and unteachable. You allow the players who are best at these things to kill your penalties, no matter where they sit in your lineup.

Of course, you're right. Penalty killing is the easiest of all hockey-related skills to master. But only if you're talking about offensive hockey. Frankly, that's ridiculous.

Oh, and 4th liners in the NHL are in the top 1%, skill-wise, of all hockey players in the world. Just because they don't score at that level doesn't mean they don't have skill.
Almost every NHL player has "incredible skating ability". Skating is a prerequisite for being an NHL player unless you're a goon. My point was that speed like Hagelins is a tool that you cannot teach and thus is not a skill that can be "gained". The ability to anticipate on the PK is something that people can learn (thus, through hard work and effort, it can be achieved). Skills like Kovalchuk's puck handling ability or Richards' passing cannot be taught like PK. While it may not be easy for someone like you to kill penalties in the NHL, for an NHLer it is the easiest thing to master of all the "hockey skills". You can call up half the guys from Hartford and I promise you they are probably awesome penalty killers but will not stick in this league because they don't provide a skill that is irreplaceable like a killer slapper, a deadly wrister, or the ability to cycle. NHLers need other skills. Christensen stayed on this team for an extra year and half simply because his hands are irreplaceable - despite having no ability to kill penalties (he's getting a second and third chance because of those hands). Having a tool that nobody else has means you can bring an element that nobody else can bring. PK ability is not one of those elements. Brian Boyle was about to end up in the AHL last year before he showed something other than shot blocking and PK ability. Kovalev was consistently called an underachiever because he had amazing hands but his shot and passing ability wasn't as amazing as his stick-handling - but he kept getting chances, even when he was terrible at times. There's a reason why guys like Kovalchuk, Kovalev, Jagr and Bure got away without playing defense (Kovalchuk does now)...it's because their irreplaceable skills are much more valuable than skills that Dale Weise or Kris Newbury could achieve with a little practice.

Should a surgeon type his own memos? Perhaps typing takes effort to learn (and may not be easy), but I'm sure there are 100 people that can type his memos and only one that can operate on the patient. Good PK'ers are dime a dozen.


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