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Stewart's next contract

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Old
02-02-2012, 09:39 AM
  #1
Chojin
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Stewart's next contract

Reading the latest Strickland blog post has got me thinking: what do you think Chris Stewart deserves for his next contract? Strick thinks that he's due for a 10% raise over his current salary ($3.25m), which would pay him slightly better than Steen.

I know Stewart has the potential to be a 30+ goal scorer, but it doesn't feel right giving him that kind of money when you consider his play this season. If anything, I think he deserves to go down to Perron or Oshie money for a year or so to motivate him.

There's also the possibility of moving him, but I think that would be a mistake.

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02-02-2012, 09:59 AM
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Dolph Ziggler
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Depends on how the season plays out for him.

I'll probably get crucified for this, but I think Stewart is more important to this team than Alex Steen

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02-02-2012, 10:05 AM
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I don't see him accepting a pay cut, I expect he'd instantly decline anything under $3m. $3m is still only a second round pick, I'm sure he'd be confident someone would put in an offersheet in that range.

Even if he continues his current pace and form, he'll end up on 17 or 18 goals and going to be in the $3.25m range. If he really picks it up and finishes on 25 or so, then it could easily be $3.5m. Then the question is whether or not we want to keep him around after that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Falco Lombardi View Post
I'll probably get crucified for this, but I think Stewart is more important to this team than Alex Steen
Long term? Probably. Right now? I completely disagree.

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02-02-2012, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Falco Lombardi View Post
I'll probably get crucified for this, but I think Stewart is more important to this team than Alex Steen
To the extent that our biggest need is goal scoring, yes, Stewart is more important than Steen. But as long as Stewart is not scoring 30 goals a year, I think Steen is much more valuable.

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02-02-2012, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Falco Lombardi View Post
Depends on how the season plays out for him.

I'll probably get crucified for this, but I think Stewart is more important to this team than Alex Steen
Care to elaborate?

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02-02-2012, 10:44 AM
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Giving Stewart a raise over his current salary would be ridiculous...but I can still see it happen. Just because his salary is x doesn't mean he should be paid x+y on his next contract. Why do people assume that every player's next contract should be a raise? Sometimes it just isn't warranted, and in Stewart's case, I don't think it is. If he were up for a contract last year, then yes, he would have been due a raise. But this isn't last year.

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02-02-2012, 11:04 AM
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Depends on how he finishes. If he goes on a tear to end the year (and into the playoffs) he'd probably get a raise but I'd still sign him to a shorter deal and make him prove it like Oshie

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02-02-2012, 11:10 AM
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Stewart's Qualifying offer is at 100% of his salary for a year. Why would his agent accept anything less than that?

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02-02-2012, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by BlueBeard View Post
Stewart's Qualifying offer is at 100% of his salary for a year. Why would his agent accept anything less than that?
So the QO has to at least be the salary he's making now? I was not aware of that - interesting. If so, I'd offer him that and not a penny more.

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02-02-2012, 11:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Note View Post
Depends on how he finishes. If he goes on a tear to end the year (and into the playoffs) he'd probably get a raise but I'd still sign him to a shorter deal and make him prove it like Oshie

The way he plays, I don't see him going on any kind of a tear. 10 goals in 46 games is a joke. That puts him on pace for about 16 goals for the season. I see nothing in his game to make me think his pace will pick up. His work effort has been a little better the past few games. He actually hit a few people and fought once. If you're not scoring, you better be hitting.

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02-02-2012, 12:20 PM
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Over / under for 20 goals for Stewart ?

I will take the under

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02-02-2012, 12:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Liut View Post
Over / under for 20 goals for Stewart ?

I will take the under
I'll take the over. He'll get hot at some point this season.

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02-02-2012, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tfriede2 View Post
So the QO has to at least be the salary he's making now? I was not aware of that - interesting. If so, I'd offer him that and not a penny more.
The breakdown is like this:

league min to 660k -110%
660k to 1million- 105%
1million+ -100%

The Q.O can be sent no earlier than July 1st and only last through July 15th, unless the Blues write the league office and extend it. So time is of an essence for him to accept it, but if Stewart and his agent don't think they will do better from the Blues or via offer sheet then they can accept it and he will have a year to prove himself. Stewart may also be arbitration eligible, but I haven't even bothered to look at that.

TLDR: Stewart is going to at least make what he does now.

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02-02-2012, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Falco Lombardi View Post
Depends on how the season plays out for him.

I'll probably get crucified for this, but I think Stewart is more important to this team than Alex Steen
If we get Stewart playing like old Stewart, not necessarily his insane hot streak, but at least how he played with Colorado, I would agree. If I had a choice between getting Steen back or getting Stewart back to playing like he use to, I would choose Stewart. Stewart's potential and natural talent level is just that high.

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02-02-2012, 12:39 PM
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This is one of the reasons I've been an advocate for trading Stewart. What if Stewart and the Blues don't agree on his value? He probably deserves something in the 2s but his QO would have to be 3.25M so they will at least have a 1yr, 3.25M on the table for him. He won't want that. Now some team comes along and signs him to an offer sheet and gives up a first and a third to the Blues if the Blues don't match. (1st and a 3d is between just over 3.1M and 4.7M.) That sets the pace of the rebuild back. They'd rather get a guy like Jack Johnson than get an extra first and a third.

Point is, the negotiation could be a headache. Someone out there will pay for what Stewart hasn't earned.

There is also no way he's more valuable than Steen. Here's how you know: take away Stewart and the team has the same success as now. Take away Steen, no way.

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02-02-2012, 12:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
This is one of the reasons I've been an advocate for trading Stewart. What if Stewart and the Blues don't agree on his value? He probably deserves something in the 2s but his QO would have to be 3.25M so they will at least have a 1yr, 3.25M on the table for him. He won't want that. Now some team comes along and signs him to an offer sheet and gives up a first and a third to the Blues if the Blues don't match. (1st and a 3d is between just over 3.1M and 4.7M.) That sets the pace of the rebuild back. They'd rather get a guy like Jack Johnson than get an extra first and a third.

Point is, the negotiation could be a headache. Someone out there will pay for what Stewart hasn't earned.

There is also no way he's more valuable than Steen. Here's how you know: take away Stewart and the team has the same success as now. Take away Steen, no way.
We're beyond setting the 'rebuild' back by losing Stewart for draft picks. You answered that in your last paragraph.

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02-02-2012, 12:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
If we get Stewart playing like old Stewart, not necessarily his insane hot streak, but at least how he played with Colorado, I would agree. If I had a choice between getting Steen back or getting Stewart back to playing like he use to, I would choose Stewart. Stewart's potential and natural talent level is just that high.
That's just the thing. Any player, if you take their best stretch or streak or game and say, if they played like this all the time, then that player looks better. Stewart doesn't play like he did during his best streaks all the time because Chris Stewart isn't a good enough hockey player to be that consistent. He's exactly as good enough to be wildly inconsistent. That's his true nature. Wild inconsistency.

I know you're not disagreeing, just using your comment as a good way to springboard to make the point, one I think too many people ignore. They choose to see what's happening now as an unpleasant aberration that as soon as "the real Chris Stewart" comes back they'll just go ahead and assume that's what we'll see going forward. It has happened before that players have shed early career inconsistency, but I don't think Armstrong is the guy who'll pay for that overcoming quality before it's well-established.

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02-02-2012, 12:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ItsOnlytheRiver View Post
We're beyond setting the 'rebuild' back by losing Stewart for draft picks. You answered that in your last paragraph.
But it's not quite that simple. Just because they'd get along without him doesn't mean you want to take a 24 year old out of the lineup and replace him with a very good 18 year old (the first rounder) in development. There are other, better options than doing that, this is what I'm saying. Trade him for JJ, put him in a package for Parise/Ryan/Iginla because it's not like the Blues are in imminent danger of losing anybody in their core to free agency. Those type of players would help the Blues now.

Reading through the lines of Armstrong's recent interviews, I think his default is set to "we're gonna ride the forwards as they are now." However, I think he's more set on keeping Berglund than Stewart. He's well aware of where the incoming prospect talent plays (the wing), so if both McDonald and Steen can get back healthy and Stewart continues to frustrate, I wouldn't be shocked to see another move. I'd put Stewart's chances of being moved at 25%. Guesstimate. Higher than Berglund's number.

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02-02-2012, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
But it's not quite that simple. Just because they'd get along without him doesn't mean you want to take a 24 year old out of the lineup and replace him with a very good 18 year old (the first rounder) in development. There are other, better options than doing that, this is what I'm saying. Trade him for JJ, put him in a package for Parise/Ryan/Iginla because it's not like the Blues are in imminent danger of losing anybody in their core to free agency. Those type of players would help the Blues now.

Reading through the lines of Armstrong's recent interviews, I think his default is set to "we're gonna ride the forwards as they are now." However, I think he's more set on keeping Berglund than Stewart. He's well aware of where the incoming prospect talent plays (the wing), so if both McDonald and Steen can get back healthy and Stewart continues to frustrate, I wouldn't be shocked to see another move. I'd put Stewart's chances of being moved at 25%. Guesstimate. Higher than Berglund's number.

I would too

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02-02-2012, 01:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
That's just the thing. Any player, if you take their best stretch or streak or game and say, if they played like this all the time, then that player looks better. Stewart doesn't play like he did during his best streaks all the time because Chris Stewart isn't a good enough hockey player to be that consistent. He's exactly as good enough to be wildly inconsistent. That's his true nature. Wild inconsistency.

I know you're not disagreeing, just using your comment as a good way to springboard to make the point, one I think too many people ignore. They choose to see what's happening now as an unpleasant aberration that as soon as "the real Chris Stewart" comes back they'll just go ahead and assume that's what we'll see going forward. It has happened before that players have shed early career inconsistency, but I don't think Armstrong is the guy who'll pay for that overcoming quality before it's well-established.
I think Stewart's situation will be a lot like Oshie's was. Stewart will be looking for a bigger deal, but in the end it will be a 1 year deal with around the same money as this season. It will be up to Stewart next season to prove that he is worth a bigger contract.

Stewart as a player is inconsistent and I have never been a huge fan of him. Regardless, when he was in Colorado he was a very productive player, so I'm not just using his hot streak with us when I say what he is capable of. Last season he had 2 stretches where he didn't get any points. Two seasons ago he had a stretch that he didn't get points in 10 games. Besides those could cold streaks, he has produced at a pretty consistent rate with Colorado and last season with us.

This year is the clear outlier, but I question if he has the work ethic to overcome this season. Whether he isn't working hard enough or if defenses are adjusting to how he plays and he isn't adapting to that, I don't know. Stewart was a pretty consistent player with Colorado once he broke out. In baseball if a pitcher figures that you can't hit offspeed pitches, that is all you are going to see, until you prove you can hit them, Rick Ankiel is an example. Defenses have adjusted to Stewart and aren't allowing him to do what he did when he was scoring and he hasn't been able to adjust, which has put his confidence level at an all time low.

I believe confidence and lack of adjustment is the main problem with Stewart. Two problems that aren't necessarily easy fixes.

I also agree that if McDonald and Steen come back strong, it is very likely that Stewart could be traded in the summer. Can't really see a deadline deal, but he would definitely be available around draft time.

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02-02-2012, 01:19 PM
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I would imagine he is going to want a nice raise and I would also imagine we would be hesitant to give him one, I could really see him being offer sheeted this summer.

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02-02-2012, 02:21 PM
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How vital is Stewart to the Blues? Is he a potential trade piece?

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02-02-2012, 02:28 PM
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Originally Posted by RussianRangersFan View Post
How vital is Stewart to the Blues? Is he a potential trade piece?
I think he is a trade bait, but the return would have to make sense. Management isn't going to trade him to trade him, but of our players that have significant value, he is probably the most expendable one.

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02-02-2012, 02:37 PM
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How vital is Stewart to the Blues? Is he a potential trade piece?
He's not "vital" in the sense that Pietrangelo or Backes are, but the Blues aren't going to have any interest in shipping him for futures or someone like Dubinsky/Anisimov, which is probably what you're offering.

What the Blues would want, which is probably one of Del Zotto or McDonagh, the Rangers won't be willing to move even if the Blues are offering Stewart in a package deal.

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02-02-2012, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RussianRangersFan View Post
How vital is Stewart to the Blues? Is he a potential trade piece?
Like the Rangers, the Blues are winning due to defense and goaltending, one consistent scoring line and an inconsistently scoring remainder. Both teams have hopes for the postseason. Neither team is in position to trade a young skilled roster player for futures that doesn't make much sense for either team.

So, like the Rangers, a trade of any piece has to bring back something missing. If we traded you Stewart, we need a quality left-shooting defensive piece. That means Del Zotto or McDonagh or Staal is the player that has to come back with a balancing of 3d/4th/spare D and futures in whatever mix the GMs would haggle over. When we've discussed this in the past those guys are declared untouchable, which is fine, but just understand there's no free lunch. Stewart would only go to the Rangers in a give-to-get hockey trade.

This is why you don't normally see contenders trade with each other, btw.

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